Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 20 March 2024

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 20 March 2024

 

 	

 

 

 	

 <mailto:sales at dulys.co.zw?subject=Request%20Quote> 
ZSE commentary

 

ZSE closes 1.67% higher...

 

The ZSE market closed 1.67% higher at 729,761.90pts, despite signs of waning
demand seen in selected counters while, the ZSE Top 10 Index added 1.00% to
settle 338,234.92pts. The Agriculture Index was the major gainer amongst its
kind as it rose 5.34% to ,581.89pts while, the Mid-Cap Index advanced 2.40%
to settle at 2,595,200.81pts. Sugar processor Star Africa led the gainers of
the day after jumping 16.16% to $13.1460 as 45,367 shares exchanged hands in
the name. The duo of ZB

 

680,804.00 80.96 and Dairibord edged Up 15.00% to end at circuit breaker
limits

1,338,800  53.33 of $4,022.7000 and $1,672.9500 respectively. Diversified
group Zimre Holdings Limited buttressed prior sessions' gains as it added
14.75% to $350.0000 while, Tanganda fastened the top five gainers list of
the day on a 14.41% increase to settle at a VWAP of $3,901.1488. Leading the
laggards of the day was ART Corporation that shed 2.38% to close at
$205.0000, trailed by tightly held counter Mashonaland Holdings that lost
1.42% to  settle  at  $340.0000.  TSL  retreated  0.46%  to  close  at

$2,200.0000 while, beverages group Delta recorded narrow losses of 0.21% to
end at 14,500.0946.

                  

Activity aggregates faltered in the session as volumes traded fell by 53.33%
to see 1.34m shares worth $3.64bn exchange hands in the session. The
threesome of OK Zimbabwe, Ecocash, NMB drove the volume aggregates of the
day as they claimed a combined 78.61% of the aggregates. Turnover drivers of
the day were Delta, NMB, OK Zimbabwe and Tanganda that claimed 30.42%,
26.45%, 10.88% and 10.41% in that order. In the ETF category, only one fund
registered trades in the session. The Old Mutual Top 10 ETF edged up 14.11%
to

$140.0000 on 3,275 shares, post announcement of a cautionary statement, in
which they advised unit holders, that as a result of changes in composition
of the Index, there are considerations underway that could have a material
effect on the future  of the fund. The Tigere  REIT was  0.76% up at

$776.6586 as 792,500 units traded in the name.

 

 

 

Global Currencies & Equity Markets

 

South Africa

 

South African rand firms ahead of Fed rate decision

(Reuters) - South Africa's rand rose against the dollar on Wednesday ahead
of an interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve.

 

At 1540 GMT, the rand traded at 18.8050 against the dollar , about 0.6%
stronger than its previous close.

 

Investors will be looking at the outcome of the Fed's latest policy meeting,
while focus will also be on Chair Jerome Powell's press statement after the
meeting for clues as to when the central bank will start cutting rates.

 

Locally, data earlier showed South Africa's consumer inflation ticked up for
the second month in a row in February to 5.6%, moving closer to the central
bank's upper target of 6%, which economists say could mean a longer wait for
rate cuts this year.

 

Economists polled by Reuters had predicted annual inflation at 5.5% from
5.3% in January.

 

Separately, Statistics South Africa said the country's retail sales fell
2.1% year-on-year in January after increasing by a revised 3.2% in December.

 

On the stock market, the Top-40 (.JTOPI), opens new tab index closed 0.8%
higher.

 

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was stronger, with the yield
down 5.5 basis points at 10.425%.

 

 

 

Nigeria

 

Naira rebounds to N1,400/$ as speculators offload forex

The naira rebounded against the United States dollar on Wednesday at the
official and parallel markets, with the local currency recording a
significant gain against the greenback at the black market.

 

This came as the Central Bank of Nigeria announced the final settlements of
all valid foreign exchange backlogs, fulfilling a key pledge of the apex
bank governor, Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, to process an inherited backlog of $7bn
in claims.

 

The Acting CBN Director, Corporate Communications, Mrs. Hakama Sidi Ali, who
disclosed this in Abuja on Wednesday, recalled the central bank had recently
cleared $1.5bn from the backlogs.

 

On Wednesday, the naira closed trading at 1,410/dollar at the parallel
market and N1,492 at the official Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange
Market, according to data compiled from the FMDQ Securities Exchange.

 

The gain recorded by the naira at the official market represents an
appreciation of N68 or 4.5 per cent, from the N1,560/$1 recorded on Tuesday
at NAFEM, and a gain of 13.5 per cent or N190 at the parallel market.

 

According to findings by The PUNCH, the exchange rate has been gaining
lately as speculators begin to dump their dollar stocks, following waning
demand by prospective buyers amid CBN clampdowns.

 

A string of circulars by the Central Bank of Nigeria in recent weeks and
months have helped to plug leakages and blocked loopholes previously
explored by currency speculators and racketeers.

 

 

Also, the recent clampdowns on the activities of illegal BDC operators in
Lagos, Abuja and Kano by the operatives of the Economic and Financial Crimes
Commission have helped to reduce the volatility of the naira.

 

A Bureau De Change Operator at Wuse 2, Abuja, Ibrahim Yahu, said on
Wednesday that the greenback was bought at the rate of N1400/$1 and sold at
N1500/$, allowing operators to make a spread of N100/$1.

 

He said, "The highest I can buy from you is N1400/$ but we are selling at
N1500/$.

 

He noted that some persons bought at the rate N1,300/$ during the daily
trading activity.

 

Another currency trader, Malam Musa Yahyah, at the Central Business District
in the FCT, expressed mixed feelings about the new rate, stating that some
traders were forced to sell at loss due to a waning demand for the
greenback.

 

In Lagos, a currency trader at Allen Avenue, Ikeja, Mustafa Ibrahim, said
the waning demand for the dollar, partly driven by the commencement of
dollar sale to BDC operators at the rate of 1,300/dollar, had further
weakened demand for the greenback.

 

He said most traders bought and sold the dollar at N1350 and N1450 on
Wednesday. According to Ibrahim, the local currency may reach a new high of
1,200/dollar in weeks if the trend continues.

 

 

Also, Mallam Abubakar Salisu, who sells FX at the Murtala Muhammed Airport,
Lagos, said the naira-dollar exchange rate at the parallel market had been
fluctuating in recent times due to the activities of the CBN and the EFCC.

 

"As of today, many of us bought and sold at 1,400/dollar and N1,450/dollar.
The rate is still volatile but many of us are anxious to sell because we
know the dollar will soon crash. The only challenge is that many us bought
the FX when the rate was around N1,600, so we are concerned about the loss.
We are seeking to minimise the loss," he said.

 

Meanwhile, the intraday high closed at N1,620 per dollar for the spot on
Tuesday while the intraday low closed at N1,350/$1 on the same day.

 

The daily foreign exchange market turnover increased to $268.29m from
$195.13 million recorded on Tuesday.

 

On Tuesday, The PUNCH exclusively reported that forex turnover at the
official foreign exchange market increased to $11.43bn within two months of
trading, following fresh reforms by the CBN.

 

An analysis of reports and data of daily forex transactions recorded on the
website of FMDQ Securities, a platform that publishes official foreign
exchange trading in the country, indicated that the figure increased by
185.75 per cent or $7.43bn between January and March 15th, 2024.

 

The improved liquidity at NAFEM followed a directive by the CBN on February
1, 2024, asking banks to sell their excess dollar stock to improve liquidity
in the FX market within 24 hours.

 

 

The naira has continued to appreciate against the dollar following some
foreign exchange measures put in place by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

 

Some of the FX reforms include efforts made at achieving a willing
buyer-willing seller market; removal of all limits on margins for the
International Money Transfer Operator remittances; introduction of a two-way
quote system and the broad reforms in the Bureau De Change segment of the
market to restore stability, enhance transparency, boost of supply, and
promote of price discovery in the Nigeria Autonomous Foreign Exchange
Market.

 

The pressure on the naira/dollar exchange rate is beginning to ease as
Nigeria's external reserves have sustained growth in one month.

 

Data from the CBN showed that the foreign currency reserves increased by
3.62 per cent to $34.37bn as of March 12, 2024 from $33.17bn recorded at the
beginning of February 2024.

 

The CBN recently announced a remarkable upswing in Diaspora remittances,
soaring by 433 per cent to reach $1.3b in February, compared to $300m in
January.

 

CBN announces

 

Meanwhile, acting CBN Director, Sidi Ali, said the clearing of the FX
backlogs followed a significant increase in external reserves.

 

She said the month-on-month increase in the reserves was driven by a marked
advance in remittance payments by Nigerians overseas, as well as higher
purchases of local assets, including government debt securities by foreign
investors.

 

Ali emphasised that meticulous efforts were undertaken to settle these
outstanding transactions.

 

The apex bank noted that independent auditors from Deloitte Consulting
meticulously assessed each transaction in the $7bn FX backlog, ensuring that
only legitimate claims were honored.

 

It noted that all invalid transactions were promptly flagged for further
scrutiny by relevant authorities.

 

Cardoso had recent underscored the importance of clearing the FX backlog to
restore credibility and confidence in the Nigerian economy.

 

According to the CBN statement, the clearance of the foreign exchange
transactions backlog aligns with the comprehensive strategy outlined during
last month's Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

 

The primary objectives include stabilising the exchange rate and mitigating
imported inflation. By doing so, the CBN aims to bolster confidence in the
banking system and stimulate economic growth.

 

 

Cardoso was said to have further communicated the expectations during a
conference call with foreign portfolio investors, emphasising sustained
increases in Nigeria's foreign currency reserves and improved liquidity in
the foreign exchange market.

 

"It was important that we go through an independent and credible process
that would determine the authenticity of those obligations, and, at this
point, I can tell you that we have now cleared all genuine, verifiable
transactions. This encumbrance to market confidence in the country's ability
to meet its obligations is now totally behind us," he added.

 

The CBN action signifies a pivotal moment in the financial landscape, paving
the way for a more resilient and stable economy.

 

As the nation moves forward, the successful clearance of the FX backlog
serves as a beacon of confidence for investors and businesses alike.

 

The statement partly read, "the Central Bank of Nigeria has announced that
all valid foreign exchange backlogs have now been settled, fulfilling a key
pledge of the CBN Governor, Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, to process an inherited
backlog of $7bn in claims.

 

"Clearance of the foreign exchange transactions backlog is part of the
overall strategy detailed in last month's Monetary Policy Committee meeting
to stabilise the exchange rate and thereby curb imported inflation, spurring
confidence in the banking system and the economy. Cardoso used the MPC
meeting and a subsequent conference call with foreign portfolio investors to
set expectations for sustained increases in Nigeria's foreign currency
reserves and improved liquidity in the foreign exchange market."

 

Banks

 

 

Meanwhile, some banks have asked their customers to submit tax clearance for
the last three years when applying for Form A.

 

Form A, which is an application form designed by the Central Bank of Nigeria
to pay for service transactions such as school fees, medical fees, and more,
allows customers to purchase funds at the CBN or interbank rate to make
payments for these services.

 

An email notification from Standard Chartered to its customers revealed that
effective next month, they would be required to submit their TCC for the
last three years when seeking forex via banks.

 

The notice titled 'Further Update On Tax Clearance Certificate' reads,
"Following our previous communication on submission and verification of Tax
Clearance Certificate for all FORM A applications, we wish to remind you of
the requirement to provide your updated tax clearance certificate.

 

"Effective 1st of April, 2024, you are required to upload your 3 years TCC
for 2021, 2022 and 2023 assessment year for all new and existing FORM A
applications on the CBN trade monitoring system (TRMS). All submitted TCC
will be verified by the state tax issuing authority before the application
is approved."

 

Fidelity Bank and Stanbic IBTC had also released similar circulars to their
customers, urging them to submit their TCC to get approval for foreign
exchange requests, such as Form A applications.

 

A Tax Clearance Certificate serves as evidence of compliance with tax
obligations, ensuring adherence to the stipulations outlined in Section 85
(2) of the Personal Income Tax Act, Cap P8, LFN 2004 (as amended).

 

 

Recalled that a global investment bank, Goldman Sachs, had recently
predicted that the Naira would appreciate to N1200 per US dollar in twelve
months.

 

Goldman Sachs analysts, Andrew Matheny and Bojosi Morule disclosed this in
their recent analysis of Nigeria's current economic realities.

 

The US-based financial institution highlighted the recent upward interest
rate adjustment by monetary authorities in Nigeria and a recent N1.6tn bill
auction by the central bank as signals that the country is turning the
tables on a previous unorthodox policy regime that hindered the naira from
trading freely.

 

"These developments have prompted us to shift to a constructive outlook for
the Naira, which our FX strategists expect to appreciate to NGN 1200 vs. the
USD in 12 months," Goldman Sachs said.

 

Goldman Sachs backed the recent monetary policy by the Nigerian government
to rescue the Naira, which was described as 'cheap' or undervalued.

 

The analysts believed that the country's foreign exchange crisis would be
resolved if the government saw to monetary policies.

 

The Central Bank of Nigeria has unveiled several monetary policies.

 

 

The latest was the new draft guidelines for Bureau de Change operators in
the last two months.

 

Also recently, Binance, a cryptocurrency, discontinued its Naira
transactions over regulatory clampdown by the Nigerian government.

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

Global Market

 

Surprise dollar surge spells trouble for Asian currencies

The US dollar is emerging as a dominant force in 2024 currency markets,
defying expectations of a decline after a period of relative strength. 

 

This unexpected dollar rally, which has seen the greenback surge by more
than 2% since the beginning of the year, is putting new pressure on
currencies across Asia.

 

 

As analysts, myself included, reassess their forecasts, it's becoming
increasingly evident that US dollar strength poses significant challenges to
Asian economies, with several key factors exacerbating the situation.

 

At the outset of the year, the prevailing consensus among experts was that
the US Federal Reserve would embark on a series of interest rate cuts in
2024, prompting expectations of a broad-based depreciation of the dollar. 

 

However, these projections have been swiftly revised, with many now
anticipating only a single US rate cut in 2024. This shift in expectations
has been instrumental in the dollar's resurgence, as investors recalibrate
their strategies.

 

In addition, the synchronized approach adopted by major central banks across
the globe, particularly in Asia, has inadvertently bolstered the US dollar's
position as the world's reserve currency. 

 

With other global central banks likely to follow the Federal Reserve's lead
in implementing monetary easing measures, the differentials in interest
rates between the US and other economies are expected to narrow. 

 

This convergence not only diminishes the allure of alternative currencies
but also underscores the relative attractiveness of US assets, thereby
exerting upward pressure on the dollar.

 

The implications of prolonged US dollar strength for Asian currencies are
multifaceted and far-reaching. 

 

One immediate concern is the adverse impact on export-oriented economies,
which heavily rely on competitive exchange rates to maintain their global
competitiveness. 

 

For instance, the South Korean won and the Taiwanese dollar, two currencies
closely tied to the fortunes of their respective export sectors, have
experienced pronounced depreciation against the resurgent greenback. 

 

This depreciation not only erodes the profitability of exports but also
exacerbates external vulnerabilities, particularly in the face of escalating
trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties. 

 

The US dollar's appreciation also poses challenges for Asian central banks
tasked with striking the balance between price stability and economic
growth. 

 

As the dollar rises, Asia's central banks may feel compelled to intervene in
foreign exchange markets to prevent what they deem as excessive currency
appreciation, thereby depleting their foreign exchange reserves and
constraining their policy flexibility. 

 

Countries such as Indonesia and India, both of which are facing inflationary
pressures and external imbalances, are particularly susceptible to the
adverse consequences of currency volatility.

 

Furthermore, US dollar strength amplifies the debt burden of Asian economies
with substantial dollar-denominated liabilities, exacerbating the risks
associated with currency mismatches and increasing the risk of financial
instability. 

 

This phenomenon is acutely felt in emerging markets such as Malaysia and
Thailand, where corporate and sovereign borrowers are vulnerable to currency
depreciation-induced debt servicing challenges. 

 

Heightened financial market volatility and capital outflows further compound
the challenges faced by policymakers in preserving macroeconomic stability.

 

The US dollar's appreciation could be expected to dampen broad investor
appetite for emerging market assets, including Asian currencies and
equities, as concerns about currency depreciation and heightened volatility
weigh on sentiment. 

 

Such a shift in investor preferences could then exert downward pressure on
Asian financial markets, leading to capital outflows, asset price
corrections and possible financial instability.

 

 

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

 

 

 

Commodities Markets

 

Price Gold prices have been hitting record highs - here's why the rally is
far from over

Gold prices hit a new all-time high on Thursday, and there's still room for
it to surge as several countries are on a gold-buying spree.

Prices could rise to $2,300 per ounce in the second half of 2024, especially
against the backdrop of expectations that the U.S.

Strong physical demand for gold is also fueled by its appeal as a safe-haven
asset and investors looking to diversify amid lackluster performances in
other asset classes.

 

 

The rally in gold continues with prices hitting an all-time high on Thursday
- and there's room for it to rise more as central banks continue to purchase
bullion in record amounts. 

 

Prices could rise to $2,300 per ounce in the second half of 2024, especially
against the backdrop of expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could cut
rates in the second half of 2024, Aakash Doshi, Citi's North America head of
commodities research, told CNBC. Gold is currently trading

at $2,203.

 

Gold prices tend to share an inverse relationship with interest rates. As
interest rates dip, gold becomes more appealing compared to fixed-income
assets such as bonds, which would yield weaker returns in a
low-interest-rate environment. 

 

Macquarie has also forecast gold prices to notch new highs in the second
half of the year. While acknowledging that physical purchases of gold have
given prices a lift, Macquarie's strategists attributed the recent $100
spike in prices to "significant futures buying" in their note dated March 7.

 

"Central banks, who have bought historic levels of gold over the past two
years, continue to be strong buyers in 2024 as well," World Gold Council
Global Head of Central Banks Shaokai Fan said. 

 

These purchases have strengthened gold prices despite high interest rates
and a strong dollar, market watchers told CNBC.

 

Higher rates tend to reduce the appeal of gold compared with bonds as it
does not pay any interest, while a stronger dollar erodes the sheen of
greenback-priced bullion for holders of other currencies.

 

Strong physical demand for gold is also fueled by its appeal as a safe-haven
asset amid geopolitical uncertainties.

 

"In the past decade, Russia and China have been the two largest buyers.
However, central bank purchases in recent years have diversified," Doshi.

 

China central bank top buyer

China is the leading driver for both consumer demand and central bank gold
purchases, and the country's not likely to slow down.

 

Among central banks, the People's Bank of China was the largest buyer of
gold in 2023. China's weak economy and embattled real estate sector also
drove more investors toward the safe-haven asset, with individual gold
investment remaining robust, WGC said.

 

 

Made with Flourish

Poland's central bank was the second-largest net consumer of gold, snapping
up 130 tons of bullion in 2023.

 

Challenges of the Russia-Ukraine war "just right next door" drives Poland's
desire for stability, said Wheaton Precious Metals CEO Randy Smallwood.

 

Poland's central bank governor Adam Glapiński in 2021 had announced plans to
buy 100 tons of gold in a bid to boost the country's financial security,
according to local media reports.

 

Singapore recorded the third highest net gold purchases in 2023, driven by
purchases by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), which bought 76.51
tons.

 

While MAS did not disclose the reason for the investment decision, Fan
surmised that central banks across the board have been wary of the
geopolitical risks from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.

 

"They have probably been adjusting reserve allocations in accordance to
their views on risk," he said. 

 

Retail purchases

Stronger gold prices were also driven by retail purchases of jewelry, bars
and coins.

 

On top of the People's Bank of China buying the most gold amongst the
world's central banks, the country also recorded the highest amount of
retail gold purchases.

 

"At the retail consumer level, China was a major factor in strong demand for
gold last year as individuals moved into gold to diversify from other asset
classes," Fan said. 

 

According to data from the World Gold Council, China overtook India to
become the world's largest gold jewelry buyer in 2023. Chinese consumers
bought 603 tons of gold jewelry last year, a 10% increase from 2022.

 

Alongside China, consumer demand for gold in India is also one of the
world's biggest, said Smallwood, especially during India's wedding season,
which runs typically from October to December, and between January and
March.

 

"Gold is always the highest form of value gift that you can actually give
someone within India. It's a real big part of the wedding season," he said.

 

People buy jewellery at a showroom on the occasion of Akshay Tritiya, at PP
jewellers Karol Bagh on May 3, 2022 in New Delhi, India. Gold prices were
flat on Friday and poised for a fourth consecutive monthly drop, as an
elevated U.S. dollar and aggressive monetary policies from top central banks
continued to erode demand for bullion.

Woman buying jewelry at a showroom in New Delhi, India.

Sonu 

 

While India's jewelry demand should continue to be significant, more
expensive gold could put some dent in that spending, WGC said. India's gold
jewelry consumption demand dipped 6% to 562.3 tons in 2023 from a year
earlier.

 

That said, India's investment in gold bars and coins grew 7% year on year.
The country's central bank demand for gold also continues to be strong, with
the Reserve Bank of India purchasing 8.7 tons of gold in January, marking
the highest monthly purchase since July 2022.

 

Aside from China and India, Turkey's gold demand last year almost doubled
that of 2022, according to WGC records. 

 

Unrelenting consumer inflation, limited available alternative investment and
domestic political uncertainty during the presidential elections last year
drove Turkey's demand for the yellow metal.

 

 

 


 

INVESTORS DIARY 2024

 


Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

Good Friday

 

march 29

 

 	

 

Easter Monday

 

1 April

 

 	

 

Independence Day

 

April 18

 

 	

 

Workers day

 

1 May

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

Counters trading under cautionary

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 	

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

 

 	

Padenga

Econet

RTG

 

 	

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

 

 	

ZBFH

 

 

 

 	

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

 

 

 Invest Cellphone:            +263 71 944 1674 | +27 79 993 5557 

Email:               bulls at bullszimbabwe.com

Website:            www.bullszimbabwe.com 

Blog:                 www.bullszimbabwe.com/blog

Twitter (X):        @bullsbears2010

LinkedIn:           Bulls n Bears Zimbabwe

Facebook:          www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe

Skype:         Bulls.Bears 



 

 

 	

 

 

 	

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls 'n Bears, a division of
Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not
constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or
subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has
been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or
warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All
opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without
notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be
suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth
companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than
the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any
other member of Bulls 'n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability
whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its
contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this
report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent
investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of
any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are
for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

 

 	

 

 

 	


 (c) 2024 Web: www.bullszimbabwe.com Email: bulls at bullszimbabwe.com Tel: +27
79 993 5557 | +263 71 944 1674

 

 	

 

 

 	
							

 

 

 

 

 

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