Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 27 March 2024

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 27 March 2024

 

 	

 

 

 	

 <mailto:sales at dulys.co.zw?subject=Request%20Quote> 
ZSE commentary

 

ZSE surges ahead of Easter holidays....

 

The market remained afloat in the penultimate session of the month of March.
The mainstream All Share Index jumped 6.18% to close at 844,265 .0lpts
while, the ZSE Top Ten Index surged 6.80% to 383,848.60pts. The Agriculture
Index improved 5.98% to 2,031.23pts while, the Mid Cap Index was 2.09%
firmer at 3,108,166.78pts. Seed manufacturer SeedCo Limited  led  the
market  charge  on  a  15.00%  advance  to $2,990.4924. Following was
Fidelity that edged up 14.99% to $822.5500. Dairiboard added 14.98% to close
at $2,932.0000 while, Meikles soared 14.38% to $7,000.0000. Completing the
top five risers of the day was Tanganda that grew 14.07% to $4,998.0065.
Trading in the negative territory was ZB Financial Holdings that dropped
761% to $6,500.0000. Trailing was Ariston that retreated 7.03% to $65.0324
as apparel retailer Edgars wobbled 2.80% to $452.0000. Star Africa was 0.62%
down  at  $16.8938  while, FML  slipped  0.28%  to  settle  at $5,619.0000.
The market registered a negative breadth as gainers outnumbered fallers by a
count of nine.

 

Volume of shares traded jumped 75.59% to see 1.89m shares exchange  hands.
Turnover  for  the  day swelled  77.33% to $3.54bn. Top volume clrivers of
the day were Ariston, OKZIM,E conet and Star Africa which claimed a combined
70.23%. Value drivers of the day were Ec;onet (26.20%), ZB (24.52%), Delta
(14.65%) and TSL (10.83%) . The Morgan and Co MCS put on 8.59% to $885.0000
while, the Datvest ETF rose 3.03% to $29 .1667. On the contrary, the Morgan
and Co MIZ dipped 12.88% to end at $17.4247 while, the Cass Saddle ETF was
stable at $9 .0000 on 1,000 units. The Tigere REIT inched up 7.22% to end
pegged at $917.0063 as 95,687 units traded.-efesecurities

 

 

 

Global Currencies & Equity Markets

 

Nigeria

 

Naira sustains recovery after CBN's further rate hike

The naira strengthened further on the parallel market on Wednesday, a day
after the Central Bank of Nigeria raised the monetary policy rate again to
curb inflation.

 

Bureau de Change (BDC) operators in Abuja quoted the naira at between 1,280
and 1,300 per dollar on Wednesday afternoon as against 1,350/$ on Tuesday.

 

Some BDC operators at the popular Zone 4 market in Abuja confirmed that the
naira is fast bouncing back.

 

When contacted by BusinessDay, an operator who identified himself simply as
Yusuf offered to sell the dollar at N1,290.

 

"Government's target is to bring the rate to N1,000 a dollar and that is
what we are all praying for," he said. "There is now money in the market.
Apart from the allocation by the CBN, private people are bringing money to
sell. That's why the rate is dropping. Dollar is available now."

 

Amongst other measures to tame inflation, the Monetary Policy Committee
(MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) jacked up the monetary policy
rate (MPR) by 200 basis points to 24.75 percent.

 

 

The committee also adjusted the asymmetric corridor around the MPR to
+100/-300 basis points.

 

But beyond the rate hike, the market is also responding to recent moves by
the CBN to sanitise the market and strengthen the naira, including moving
against speculative demand coupled with resuming its twice a week dollar
sales to the BDCs of $10,000 at each auction.

 

Analysts say that the central bank's clearing of the foreign exchange
backlog has brought back transparency into the market and encouraged more FX
inflows.

 

 

The CBN is also keeping a close watch on the market, especially the parallel
market in a move to deal with widespread speculation.

 

 

Yusuf confirmed that for over a month, law enforcement agencies have
permanently been in the market to curb the activities of speculators.

 

"For almost one month, they have been in the market, and they use to control
the price. They will not allow the rate to go up like that all the time they
are here," Yusuf said.

 

Another BDC operator, Usman, who also spoke to BusinessDay quoted N1,280
while his colleague said he would sell at N1,150.

 

On the wide discrepancy in rates, they said some of the rates being quoted
may not be real as many of their colleagues in the market are equally
"scared since no one really knows whether the person asking for the rate is
a real customer or government people."

 

Announcing the outcome of the MPC meeting on Tuesday, Olayemi Cardoso,
governor of the CBN, had reiterated satisfaction with the level of stability
achieved in the foreign exchange market in the last few weeks.

 

"This, in the view of members, reflects the impact of the bank's recent
policy actions and reforms, as well as increased transparency in the market.
In addition, the committee noted the efforts of the bank in offsetting
verified foreign currency obligations, an action that will greatly enhance
investor confidence and attract foreign investments to Nigeria."

 

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

Global Markets

 

 

Japan's yen dips to 34-year low against US dollar

Currency markets saw Japan's yen dip to its lowest point against the US
dollar in more than three decades on Wednesday.

 

The fall has raised speculation that authorities might intervene in market
trading to prop up the currency.

 

What's happening with the yen?

The yen fell to 151.97 against the dollar - the lowest point since 1990 -
before rallying slightly. The dollar was last down at 151.19.

 

In the past two years, the yen has weakened significantly from roughly 115
against the dollar before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

 

In a historic shift in monetary policy, Japan increased interest rates this
month for the first time since 2007. However, this has done little to
stabilize the falling price of the yen, given that Japan's benchmark
interest rates remain among the lowest in the developed world and are not
expected to rise much further. 

 

A weaker yen makes exports from Japan cheaper. However, it also drives up
import costs and energy prices for consumers in the world's fourth-largest
economy.

 

In a sign of concern about the need to shore up the currency, the Bank of
Japan, the Finance Ministry and Japan's Financial Services Agency held a
meeting late in Tokyo trading hours.

 

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said earlier that authorities
could adopt "decisive steps" against yen weakness. 

 

Bankrupt banks and higher interest: Are startups in crisis?

 

04:01

"Now we are watching market moves with a high sense of urgency," he told
reporters.

 

The government could intervene directly in the currency market, buying large
amounts of yen and usually selling dollars for the Japanese currency. Tokyo
last took such action in 2022 when the yen was also floundering.

 

Why is the yen so low?

Japan last week raised interest rates for the first time since 2007 in a
move that marked a historic shift in monetary policy.

 

Despite the rise in interest rates from negative territory, the cost of
borrowing in Japan remains very low at 0 to 0.1%. 

 

For investors, the US - which adopted an aggressive policy of hiking rates
to tamp down inflation - offers a far more attractive rate of 5.25 to 5.5%,
with a cut not priced in until July. 

 

The value of the Japanese yen has already fallen more than 7% this year
against the dollar. 

 

Meanwhile, the dollar is on track for solid quarterly gains after investors
tempered their expectations of big interest rate cuts in light of strong
economic data and the reluctance from central bankers.

 

rc/wmr (AFP, Reuters)

 

 

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

 

 

 

Commodities Markets

 

Gold Gold price flirts with weekly top, bulls await sustained move beyond
$2,200 mark

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades near the top end of its weekly range heading
into the European session on Thursday, albeit seems to struggle to make it
through the $2,200 psychological mark. Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor
Christopher Waller's hawkish remarks on Wednesday cooled rate cut hopes and
turned out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the non-yielding
yellow metal. However, the US central bank last week projected a less
restrictive policy going forward and indicated that it remains on track to
cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2024. This, in turn, holds back the
US Dollar (USD) bulls from placing aggressive bets and lending some support
to the commodity.

 

Apart from this, a softer risk tone might continue to underpin safe-haven
demand and contribute to limiting any meaningful corrective slide for the
Gold price. Moreover, traders might prefer to wait for more cues about the
Fed's rate-cut path before positioning for the next leg of a directional
move. Hence, the market focus remains glued to the release of the US
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday - the Fed's
preferred inflation gauge. In the meantime, Thursday's US macro data will be
looked upon to grab short-term trading opportunities.

 

 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price lacks bullish conviction amid Fed
rate cut uncertainty

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller said on Wednesday that he
was in no hurry to cut rates in the wake of hotter inflation readings in
recent months, boosting the US Dollar and capping gains for the Gold price.

 

Waller, however, noted that further expected progress on lowering inflation
will make it appropriate for the Fed to start cutting interest rates later
this year, which is seen acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow
metal.

 

Moreover, the Fed last week projected three interest rate cuts of 25 basis
points each by the end of this year, and the markets are currently pricing
in a greater chance of the first move at the June FOMC monetary policy
meeting.

Apart from this, geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted
Russia-Ukraine war and the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East should help
limit any meaningful corrective decline for the safe-haven precious metal.

 

Traders now look to Thursday's US economic docket - featuring the release of
the final Q4 GDP print, the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Pending
Home Sales and the revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

 

Technical Analysis: Gold price awaits sustained move beyond the $2,200  mark
before the next leg up

>From a technical perspective, the range-bound price action witnessed over
the past two weeks or so might be categorized as a bullish consolidation
phase against the backdrop of a blowout rally since the beginning of this
month. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in
the positive territory and support prospects for an eventual breakout to the
upside. Some follow-through buying back above the $2,200 mark will reaffirm
the constructive setup and allow the Gold price to retest the record high,
around the $2,223 region touched last week.

 

On the flip side, any corrective decline now seems to find some support near
the overnight swing low, around the $2,173 area ahead of the $2,164-2,163
zone. This is followed by the lower end of the short-term trading range,
around the $2,146-2,145 region, which, if broken, might prompt aggressive
technical selling. The Gold price might then accelerate the fall to the next
relevant support near the $2,128-2,127 region en route to the $2,100
round-figure mark. The latter should act as a strong base, which, if broken,
will suggest that the XAU/USD has topped out in the near term.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

INVESTORS DIARY 2024

 


Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

Good Friday

 

march 29

 

 	

 

Easter Monday

 

1 April

 

 	

 

Independence Day

 

April 18

 

 	

 

Workers day

 

1 May

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

Counters trading under cautionary

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 	

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

 

 	

Padenga

Econet

RTG

 

 	

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

 

 	

ZBFH

 

 

 

 	

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

 

 

 Invest Cellphone:            +263 71 944 1674 | +27 79 993 5557 

Email:               bulls at bullszimbabwe.com

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for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

 

 	

 

 

 	


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79 993 5557 | +263 71 944 1674

 

 	

 

 

 	
							

 

 

 

 

 

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