Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 18 November 2024

[Bulls n Bears]

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Major International Business Headlines Brief:::  18 November 2024 

 


 


 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 


 

 


 

ü  Who wins when Nigeria's richest man takes on the 'oil mafia'?

ü  Trump names fracking executive Chris Wright energy secretary

ü  German manufacturers warn of the sector's 'formidable crash'

ü  Megaport opens up Latin America to Chinese trade as US looks on

ü  South Africa: Cape Town to Challenge Eskom's Tariff Hike 

ü  Africa: Coffee Prices Surge On EU Deforestation Rules

ü  Uganda: 170,000 Coffee Farmers So Far Registered Ahead of EU Deadline

ü  Uganda: President Museveni, Speaker Among Team Up to Tackle Poverty in
Serere

ü  Uganda: Bobi Wine Losing Support Due to Lack of Clear Message, Says NRM's
Mulindwa

ü  South Africa: SA Seeks Balance Between Livelihoods and Renewable Energy
Ambitions

ü  Africa Topples Asia, Europe, Us As Africa's Preferred Trade Market

ü  Senegal Votes to Shape Parliament As Reforms and Economy Hang in Balance

ü  Nigeria: Uncertainties As Petrol Imports Rival Dangote Refinery's Supply
Output

ü  Nigeria: N4 Million Debt - Bobrisky's U.S.-Based Accuser Replies Him With
Audio Proof

 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 


 

Who wins when Nigeria's richest man takes on the 'oil mafia'?

Petrol production at Nigerian business tycoon Aliko Dangote’s $20bn
(£15.5bn) state-of-the-art oil refinery ought to be some of the best
business news Nigeria has had in years.

 

But many Nigerians will judge its success on two key questions - firstly:
"Will I get cheaper petrol?"

 

Sorry, but probably no - unless the international price of crude drops.

 

And secondly: "Will I still have to spend hours watching my hair turn grey
in a hypertension-inducing fuel queue?"

 

Hopefully those days are gone but it might partly depend on the behaviour of
what Mr Dangote calls "the oil mafia".

 

For much of the time since oil was first discovered in Nigeria in 1956, the
downstream sector, which includes the stage when crude is refined into
petrol and other products, has been a cesspit of shady deals with successive
governments heavily involved.

 

It has always been impossible to follow the money, but you know there is
something dreadfully wrong when the headline "Nigeria’s state-owned oil firm
fails to pay $16bn in oil revenues", pops up on your news feed, as it did in
2016.

 

It is only in the last five years that the state-owned Nigerian National
Petroleum Company (NNPC) has been publishing accounts.

 

The Africa head at the Eurasia Group think-tank, Amaka Anku, hails the
Dangote refinery, in which the NNPC has a 7% stake, as "a very significant
moment" for the West African state.

 

"What you had in the downstream sector was an inefficient, corrupt
monopoly," she says.

 

"What the local refinery allows you to do is have a truly competitive
downstream sector with multiple players who will be more efficient, profit
making and they’ll pay taxes."

 

To put it bluntly, the population of this oil-rich nation has been conned on
a colossal scale for many years.

 

Oil revenue accounts for nearly 90% of Nigeria’s export earnings but a
relatively small number of business people and politicians have gorged
themselves on the oil wealth.

 

Aspects of the business model have been baffling, including that of
Nigeria’s four previously existing oil refineries.

 

Built in the 1960s, 70s and 80s, they have fallen into disrepair.

 

Last year Nigeria’s parliament reported that over the previous decade the
state had spent a staggering $25bn trying and failing to fix the moribund
facilities.

 

So Africa’s largest oil producer has been exporting its crude which is then
refined abroad, much to the delight of some well-connected traders.

 

It would be like a bakery with a broken oven. But rather than fix it, the
owner sends balls of dough to another firm that shoves them in a working
oven and sells the loaves back to the baker.

 

 

Getty Images Motorists queue to buy fuel as queues resurfaced in in Abuja,
on 30 May 2023Getty Images

Nigeria is often hit by fuel shortages, causing long queues at filling
stations

The NNPC swaps Nigeria’s crude oil for the refined products, including
petrol, which are shipped back home.

 

Exactly how much money changes hands and who benefits from these "oil swaps"
is just one of the unknowns in these deals.

 

"No-one has been able to nail down who exactly has benefited. It’s almost
like a beer parlour gossip about who is getting what," says Toyin Akinosho
of the Africa Oil+Gas Report.

 

The NNPC began subsidising the price of petrol in the 1970s to cushion the
blow when global prices soared. Every year it clawed this money back by
depositing lower royalty payments - the money it received for every barrel
pumped out of the ground - with the Nigerian treasury.

 

In 2022 the subsidy cost the government $10bn, more than 40% of the total
money it collected in taxes.

 

On his second day in office Nigeria’s Vice-President Kashim Shettima
referred to "the fuel subsidy scam" being "an albatross around the neck of
the economy".

 

Nigerian oil expert Kelvin Emmanuel says in 2019 the country’s official
petrol consumption "jumped by 284% to 70m litres per day without empirical
evidence to justify such a sharp increase in demand".

 

Parliament has previously reported that - at least on paper - importers were
being paid to bring in far more petrol than the country consumed. There was
a lot of money to be made exporting some of the subsidised petrol to
neighbouring countries where prices were far higher.

 

The NNPC earned billions of dollars a year from the crude oil production.
But for many years, under previous governments, some of its profits never
reached the treasury as it was accused by state governors and federal
lawmakers of including these inflated subsidy costs on its balance sheet.

 

The NNPC did not respond to a request for an interview or a response to
these allegations but in June denied it had ever "inflated its subsidy
claims with the federal government".

 

It may have been the main source of revenue for successive governments but
for decades, until 2020, the board did not disclose its audited accounts.
Its press release from March this year promised more transparency and
accountability.

 

After coming to power in May 2023, President Bola Tinubu said the subsidy
was unsustainable and suddenly cut it - pump prices immediately tripled.

 

He also stopped the policy of artificially propping up the value of the
local currency, the naira, and let market forces determine its value.

 

When he took over, the exchange rate was 460 naira to the US dollar. In
November 2024 it was over 1,600.

 

The triple shock of higher fuel prices, sporadic shortages of supply and a
depreciating currency has been a tough body blow for people across the
country, many of whom are forced to run generators to keep the lights on and
phones charged.

 

"Beyond the financial burden, the uncertainty and stress of constantly
dealing with fuel shortages have added a layer of anxiety to everyday
tasks," is how one Lagos resident summed it up.

 

"I feel like I’m always navigating through crisis mode. It’s exhausting."

 

 

As the naira plunged and pump prices increased several times, the
government, aware of the potential danger of protests, continued to pipette
some medicine to the masses.

 

In a move which could be likened to swallowing half a paracetamol for acute
appendicitis, the government made sure people were paying slightly less than
the market rate for a litre of petrol.

 

In other words, the NNPC was selling at a loss and the subsidy was still
alive.

 

But with two recent increases in October, Nigerians are now paying market
prices for fuel for the first time in three decades. In the main city Lagos
it went up from 858 naira ($0.52) to 1,025 naira per litre.

 

One of the major factors in Nigeria’s economic crisis has been a limited
supply of foreign currency. The country does not export enough products and
services to bring in the dollars.

 

But lots of people, including fuel traders, have been chasing the same
limited supply of foreign currency, which leads to the naira losing even
more value.

 

The good news is that Mr Dangote’s facility is going to buy crude and sell
refined fuels in Nigeria in the local currency, which will leave more
dollars available for everyone else.

 

The bad news for those hoping this will mean cheaper fuel is that the price
Mr Dangote pays for a barrel of local crude will still be the naira
equivalent of the international cost in dollars.

 

So if the price of crude goes up on the world market, Nigerians will still
be forced to fork out more naira. Refining locally will mean less freight
costs but that’s a relatively small saving.

 

I knew there would be a fight. But I didn’t know that the mafia in oil, they
are stronger than the mafia in drugs"

Aliko Dangote

Nigerian businessman

It is hoped that the arrival of Mr Dangote’s oil refinery will help bring a
measure of transparency to the sector.

 

He knew he would be upsetting some of those who benefit from the murky
status quo when the $20bn project began. But, he says, he underestimated the
challenge.

 

"I knew there would be a fight. But I didn’t know that the mafia in oil,
they are stronger than the mafia in drugs," Mr Dangote told an investment
conference in June.

 

"They don’t want the trade to stop. It’s a cartel. Dangote comes along and
he’s going to disrupt them entirely. Their business is at risk,” says Mr
Emmanuel, the oil expert.

 

The fact that there have been some public disagreements with the regulator
has only fuelled that suspicion.

 

Mr Dangote’s refinery near Lagos is thirsty, with a capacity of 650,000
barrels of crude a day.

 

You would have thought being located in Nigeria would make supply easy but
then up pops this headline: "Nigeria’s Dangote buys Brazilian crude".

 

It follows a row over supply and pricing. The regulatory authority has
complained about Mr Dangote’s negotiating tactics.

 

Nigeria’s crude oil is low in sulphur and, as one of the most prized in the
world, fetches a higher price than many of its competitors.

 

When discussions over price began, Farouk Ahmed, the chief executive of the
Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA),
accused Mr Dangote of "wanting a Lamborghini for the price of a Toyota".

 

 

Mr Dangote has complained of not being allocated as much crude as earlier
agreed but even when the price issue is resolved, he will still need to
import some crude.

 

“NNPC doesn’t have enough crude for Dangote. Despite all this instruction to
give ample supply of crude to the refinery, NNPC can’t supply Dangote with
more than 300,000 barrels per day," says Mr Akinosho of the Africa Oil+Gas
Report.

 

He says this is partly because the NNPC has pre-sold millions of barrels of
oil for loans.

 

In August 2023 it secured a $3bn loan from the Afreximbank financial
institution. In return it is due to supply 164 million barrels of crude.

 

In September the NNPC admitted it was significantly in debt. It was reported
to be owing its suppliers around $6bn for fuel brought into the country.

 

Nigeria’s oil production has plummeted in recent years from around 2.1
million barrels per day in 2018 to around 1.3 million barrels per day in
2023.

 

The NNPC has been stressing oil theft as the number one reason why
production has dropped.

 

It says in just one week - from 28 September to 4 October - there were 161
incidents of oil theft across the Niger Delta and 45 illegal refineries were
"discovered".

 

But Ms Anku believes that "the theft problem is overrated by the NNPC and
the oil sector".

 

"It’s a convenient excuse,” she adds.

 

She points to other contributing factors causing the drop in production,
including international oil companies selling their on-shore oil fields -
some of which may no longer be viable having pumped oil for 60 years.

 

 

Getty Images An illegal oil refinery destroyed by members of the Nigerian
Navy forces is pictured on April 19, 2017 in the Niger Delta region near the
city of Port HarcourtGetty Images

Some of Nigeria's crude ends up in illegal refineries such as this one

The 66-year-old Dangote, who is listed by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index
as the second wealthiest person in Africa, made his fortune in cement and
sugar.

 

He has always denied the suggestion that his empire benefitted from links to
politicians in power who helped ensure he had a monopoly.

 

Today there are those who are critical of Mr Dangote’s tactics and amid
tension with the regulatory authorities, the same accusation has resurfaced
when it comes to the supply of fuel in Nigeria.

 

"Mr Dangote asked me to stop issuing licences for importation and that
everyone should buy from him. To which I said 'No' because it’s not good for
the market. We have energy security interests," says Mr Ahmed of the
regulatory authority.

 

Mr Dangote has not commented on the accusation but has said it makes
business sense for the traders to buy from his refinery rather than from
outside.

 

A feud between the regulator and Mr Dangote over supplies and pricing has
rumbled on and morphed into another row with local fuel traders refusing to
buy from the new refinery.

 

The mud slinging has also included allegations that some traders have been
buying up substandard fuel from Russia which is then blended with other
products before being shipped into Nigeria.

 

But not everyone is worried or surprised by the disagreements.

 

Ms Anku points to lessons learnt from US businessmen back in the 19th
Century.

 

"The JP Morgans and the Stanfords – they didn’t have it easy either. That’s
why they had to go and get government support and subsidies to build their
railways and so on.

 

"I see the drama as a very normal process as you’re changing the structure
of the economy. There are losers, they lash out. There’s no chance they’ll
stop the refinery from working or selling its products to the Nigerian
markets
 in my view."

 

The modern, local refinery has also led to a debate over the quality of fuel
on the market. It is an important issue given the vast number of generators
belching out fumes across Nigeria as a result of the woeful power supply.

 

"Every day I wake up to the smell of what I’m sure [could] kill me. It’s
because of the quality of the diesel," says Mr Akinosho.

 

He sees Mr Dangote’s refinery as a real opportunity for higher quality
petroleum products in Nigeria which would be better for both car engines and
people’s lungs.

 

But right now, Nigerians being hit hard in the pocket may find it difficult
to be optimistic.

 

Arguments between officials at the Dangote refinery, the oil marketers and
the regulators are batted back and forth in the media. All sides have been
accused of hiding some facts and figures which leaves people guessing what
is going on inside this still somewhat opaque industry.

 

"Everyone is a villain. There are no heroes here," concludes Mr Akinosho.
-BBC

 

 

 

 

Trump names fracking executive Chris Wright energy secretary

Donald Trump has named oil and gas industry executive Chris Wright as his
pick to lead the US Energy Department.

 

He is expected to fulfil the president-elect’s promise to increase fossil
fuel production - an aim summed by the campaign slogan “drill, baby, drill”.

 

Wright is the founder and CEO of Liberty Energy, which serves companies
extracting oil and gas from shale fields in a process known as “fracking”.

 

Trump wrote in a statement: “Chris was one of the pioneers who helped launch
the American Shale Revolution that fuelled American Energy Independence, and
transformed the Global Energy Markets and Geopolitics.

 

 

“As Secretary of Energy, Chris will be a key leader, driving innovation,
cutting red tape, and ushering in a new Golden Age of American Prosperity
and Global Peace.”

 

Wright is a climate change sceptic who previously said he does not care
where energy comes from, “as long as it is secure, reliable, affordable and
betters human lives”.

 

In a video posted to his LinkedIn profile last year, he said: “There is no
climate crisis, and we're not in the midst of an energy transition either.”

 

Wright will also be appointed to a new Council of National Energy, the Trump
campaign said.

 

The council will oversee “the path to US energy dominance by cutting red
tape, enhancing private sector investments across all sectors of the
Economy,” Trump said.

 

The Trump campaign cited Wright’s work with Pinnacle Technologies, a company
he founded before Liberty Energy, as being critical to the US’s fracking
boom, which has made the country the largest oil producer in the world.

 

Wright’s appointment is a win for the fossil fuel industry, which expects a
boom under the next administration. Trump has pledged to increase production
of US fossil fuels rather than investing in renewable energy sources such as
wind power - a goal Wright will be instrumental in driving.

 

The president-elect has pledged to open areas such as the Arctic wilderness
to oil drilling, which he argues would lower energy costs.

 

During his first presidency, Trump rolled back hundreds of environmental
protections and made America the first nation to withdraw from the Paris
climate agreement.-BBC

 

 

 

 

German manufacturers warn of the sector's 'formidable crash'

In the 44 years since Beckhoff Automation opened for business, owner Hans
Beckhoff says he hasn’t seen an economic crisis like this one.

 

“You can usually expect a crisis about once every five to eight years,” says
Mr Beckhoff. “This time it’s a formidable crash, a really deep one.”

 

A German company, Beckhoff Automation makes automated control systems for a
wide range of industries, including manufacturing and the energy sector.

 

It belongs to Germany’s famous Mittelstand, the often highly specialised
small and medium-sized enterprises that make up 99% of German companies,
provide around 59% of German jobs, and are considered the “hidden champions”
of the German economy.

 

The Mittelstand’s ability to take a long view on business performance rather
than scrambling for annual dividends is part of what has made German
manufacturing so robust. However, the global economy is shifting rapidly,
and pressure is mounting.

 

“We're still doing well, though the economic situation has really slowed
down," says Frederike Beckhoff, corporate development manager at Beckhoff
Automation and Hans’ daughter. “This year's results won't be anywhere close
to what we achieved over the past three years.”

 

 

German firms have been hit by a number of problems in recent years. These
include the steep energy price hikes that followed Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine in 2022, rising general inflation, and increased competition from
China.

 

Companies also complain about rundown German infrastructure, such as the
country’s much criticised rail network, bridges and roads, all three of
which state-owned broadcaster Deutsche Wells describes as “aging and
crumbling”.

 

Other businesses highlight what they see as a heavy bureaucratic burden at
both national and European levels, inconsistent government decision-making
from Berlin, plus higher labour costs and staff shortages.

 

“The last three years have not been easy in Germany,” says Joachim Ley,
chief executive at Ziehl-Abegg, a manufacturer of ventilation, air
conditioning, and engineering systems.

 

“What we really need is reliable [government] decision making instead of
180-degree turns. Even if you don’t like decisions, you can at least plan
and adjust if the decision is reliable. This back and forth is putting a lot
of burden on companies in Germany.”

 

Ziehl-Abegg A worker at German manufacturer Ziehl-AbeggZiehl-Abegg

German manufacturers say that they face a number of problems

 

Germany’s coalition government fell apart earlier this month, and a general
election is now set for 23 February, with a confidence vote before that on
16 December.

 

U-turns the government has made in recent years include walking back subsidy
programmes for heat pumps and electric vehicles. This hit both domestic
sales and net-zero targets. Berlin declined to comment.

 

But while political flip-flopping hasn’t helped German companies, many look
to China as the key strain, especially on Germany’s carmakers, which have
been hit by two problems.

 

Domestic demand for vehicles has cooled in China, and China now has a strong
car industry of its own, with an aggressive export policy.

 

“Since the start of 2021, the Chinese export of electric vehicles has gone
up by 1,150%,” says Dr Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg
Commercial Bank.

 

“That’s only EV [electric vehicles]. If you take all cars, including those
running on fossil fuels, then you still get an increase of Chinese exports
of 600%. During the same period, German exports increased by 60%. So there
is obviously a shift in market shares happening here.”

 

The result of this is Volkswagen, Germany’s largest private-sector employer,
threatening domestic plant closures for the first time in its 87-year
history. It could result in tens of thousands of German job losses.

 

In October, the car manufacturer reported a 64% drop in third-quarter
profits compared with a year earlier, primarily blaming a slump in demand
from China, traditionally a key market for Germany’s premium car brands.

 

Mercedes-Benz reported a 54% decline over the same period, and BMW has also
issued profit warnings, both also citing reduced Chinese orders.

 

 

Ms Beckhoff says that carmakers and the wider German manufacturing sector
need to increase their competitiveness. “I really do think that productivity
is something we have to take really seriously,” she says.

 

“The wealth we enjoy here in most parts of Germany and Europe, we can't take
it for granted.”

 

German manufacturers that require low-cost margins may struggle, says Mr
Ley, but he believes there is hope for high-quality products with innovative
features that rely on world-class engineering and intellectual property.

 

Dr Klaus Günter Deutsch, head of industrial and economic policy research at
the Federation of German Industries (BDI), believes “much will depend on
whether we are able to pull the innovation levels much faster, better and
more consistently across Europe”.

 

There is no doubt that job losses and restructuring on their home soil will
be a painful process for German manufacturers such as Volkswagen, and
chemicals firm BASF, which has also warned of cuts.

 

However, Mr Beckhoff believes this reality check may be healthy in the
longer term. “I think it is good for German industry that Volkswagen is
running into some problems because it will increase motivation,” he says.

 

“It’s finally understood that we really have to do something. What is it
that Winston Churchill said? Never waste a good crisis!”

 

Getty Images Volkswagen workers marching with bannersGetty Images

Volkswagen workers recently protested outside of its factory in Osnabrueck,
Germany

 

So while there is hope for a positive transformation in the manufacturing
sector in the longer term, the shorter-term outlook will continue to be
challenging. Whoever forms the next German government will have to make some
difficult calls.

 

“I am still optimistic,” says economist Dr de la Rubia, who says that the
need to upgrade Germany’s infrastructure is now “so obvious” that whoever
forms the country’s next government will have to take action.

 

“I think they will say, ‘okay, the crisis is really there and now we will
make a big leap’. That is my hope and my conviction.”

 

And many agree that this crisis may be just what Germany needs. In the
post-war years, the country proved it had the capacity to produce an
“economic miracle” against the odds.

 

The circumstances now may be different, but it’s not unthinkable that, with
concerted action, it could do so again.-BBC

 

 

 

 

Megaport opens up Latin America to Chinese trade as US looks on

As the world waits to see how the return of Donald Trump will reshape
relations between Washington and Beijing, China has just taken decisive
action to entrench its position in Latin America.

 

Trump won the US presidential election on a platform that promised tariffs
as high as 60% on Chinese-made goods. Further south, though, a new
China-backed megaport has the potential to create whole new trade routes
that will bypass North America entirely.

 

President Xi Jinping himself attended the inauguration of the Chancay port
on the Peruvian coast this week, an indication of just how seriously China
takes the development.

 

Xi was in Peru for the annual meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic
Co-operation Forum (Apec). But all eyes were on Chancay and what it says
about China's growing assertiveness in a region that the US has
traditionally seen as its sphere of influence.

 

As seasoned observers see it, Washington is now paying the price for years
of indifference towards its neighbours and their needs.

 

"The US has been absent from Latin America for so long, and China has moved
in so rapidly, that things have really reconfigured in the past decade,"
says Monica de Bolle, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for
International Economics in Washington.

 

"You have got the backyard of America engaging directly with China," she
tells the BBC. "That's going to be problematic."

 

 

Even before it opened, the $3.5bn (£2.75bn) project, masterminded by China's
state-owned Cosco Shipping, had already turned a once-sleepy Peruvian
fishing town into a logistical powerhouse set to transform the country's
economy.

 

China's official Communist Party newspaper, the People's Daily, called it "a
vindication of China-Peru win-win co-operation".

 

Peru's President Dina Boluarte was similarly enthusiastic, describing the
megaport as a "nerve centre" that would provide "a point of connection to
access the gigantic Asian market".

 

But the implications go far beyond the fortunes of one small Andean nation.
Once Chancay is fully up and running, goods from Chile, Ecuador, Colombia
and even Brazil are expected to pass through it on their way to Shanghai and
other Asian ports.

 

China already has considerable appetite for the region's exports, including
Brazilian soybeans and Chilean copper. Now this new port will be able to
handle larger ships, as well as cutting shipping times from 35 to 23 days.

 

However, the new port will favour imports as well as exports. As signs grow
that an influx of cheap Chinese goods bought online may be undermining
domestic industry, Chile and Brazil have scrapped tax exemptions for
individual customers on low-value foreign purchases.

 

 

Reuters A harvester unloads soybeans into a truck at a farm during a record
soybean harvest season in Não-Me-Toque, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, 3 April
2024Reuters

Brazilian soybeans and other commodities can now reach China more swiftly

As nervous US military hawks have pointed out, if Chancay can accommodate
ultra-large container vessels, it can also handle Chinese warships.

 

The most strident warnings have come from Gen Laura Richardson, who has just
retired as chief of US Southern Command, which covers Latin America and the
Caribbean.

 

She has accused China of "playing the ‘long game’ with its development of
dual-use sites and facilities throughout the region", adding that those
sites could serve as "points of future multi-domain access for the [People's
Liberation Army] and strategic naval chokepoints".

 

 

Reuters A member of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy stands
guard on the Shijiazhuang, a Type 051C guided-missile destroyer, as the Navy
opens warships for public viewing to mark its upcoming 75th founding
anniversary, at the port in Qingdao, Shandong province, China 20 April
2024Reuters

The US fears Peru's new megaport could end up hosting Chinese warships

Even if that prospect never materialises, there is a strong perception that
the US is losing ground in Latin America as China forges ahead with its Belt
and Road Initiative (BRI).

 

Outgoing US President Joe Biden was among the leaders at the Apec summit, on
his first and last visit to South America during his four-year term. Media
commentators remarked that he cut a diminished figure next to China's Xi.

 

Prof Álvaro Méndez, director of the Global South Unit at the London School
of Economics, points out that while the US was taking Latin America for
granted, Xi was visiting the region regularly and cultivating good
relations.

 

"The bar has been set so low by the US that China only has to be a little
bit better to get through the door," he says.

 

 

Of course, Latin America is not the only part of the world targeted by the
BRI. Since 2023, China's unprecedented infrastructure splurge has pumped
money into nearly 150 countries worldwide.

 

The results have not always been beneficial, with many projects left
unfinished, while many developing countries that signed up for Beijing's
largesse have found themselves burdened with debt as a result.

 

Even so, left-wing and right-wing governments alike have cast aside their
initial suspicions of China, because "their interests are aligned" with
those of Beijing, says the Peterson Institute's Ms de Bolle: "They have
lowered their guard out of sheer necessity."

 

Reuters People walk at the venue of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation
(Apec) summit in Lima, PeruReuters

The Apec summit in Peru has highlighted the complex relations between the
US, China and Latin America

 

Ms de Bolle says the US is right to feel threatened by this turn of events,
since Beijing has now established "a very strong foothold" in the region at
a time when president-elect Trump wants to "rein in" China.

 

"I think we will finally start to see the US putting pressure on Latin
America because of China," she says, adding that most countries want to stay
on the right side of both big powers.

 

"The region doesn't have to choose unless it's put in a position where they
are forced to, and that would be very dumb."

 

Looking ahead, South American countries such as Peru, Chile and Colombia
would be vulnerable to pressure because of the bilateral free trade
agreements they have with the US, which Trump could seek to renegotiate or
even tear up.

 

They will be watching keenly to see what happens to the United
States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which is up for review in July 2026,
but will be subject to negotiations during 2025.

 

Whatever happens, Prof Méndez of the LSE feels that the region needs more
co-operation.

 

"It shouldn't be that all roads lead to Beijing or to Washington. Latin
America has to find a more strategic way, it needs a coherent regional
strategy," he says, pointing to the difficulty of getting 33 countries to
agree a joint approach.

 

Eric Farnsworth, vice-president at the Washington-based Council of the
Americas, feels that there is still much goodwill towards the US in Latin
America, but the region's "massive needs" are not being met by its northern
neighbour.

 

"The US needs to up its game in the region, because people would choose it
if there was a meaningful alternative to China," he tells the BBC.

 

Unlike many others, he sees some rays of hope from the incoming Trump
administration, especially with the appointment of Marco Rubio as secretary
of state.

 

"Rubio has a real sense of a need to engage economically with the Western
Hemisphere in a way that we just haven't done for a number of years," he
says.

 

But for successive US leaders, Latin America has been seen primarily in
terms of illegal migration and illegal drugs. And with Trump fixated on
plans to deport record numbers of immigrants, there is little indication
that the US will change tack any time soon.

 

Like the rest of the world, Latin America is bracing itself for a bumpy four
years - and if the US and China start a full-blown trade war, the region
stands to get caught in the crossfire.-BBC

 

 

 

 

South Africa: Cape Town to Challenge Eskom's Tariff Hike 

The City of Cape Town plans to challenge Eskom's proposed 44% tariff
increase during public hearings organized by the national energy regulator,
Nersa, reports IOL. Xanthea Limberg, the Mayoral Committee Member for
Energy, warned that approving such a steep hike would directly impact
ratepayers. “It is unaffordable, unfair, and disconnected from the financial
realities faced by households, businesses, and the economy,” said Limberg.
Eskom is seeking a 44% electricity price increase for municipalities and a
36% rise for direct customers in 2025, following a reported net loss of
R26.9 billion for the financial year ending March 2023.

 

Poverty Drives Zama Zamas, Says Human Rights Lawyer

 

Human rights lawyer Advocate Mametlwe Sebei attributes the actions of Zama
Zamas, trapped underground in an abandoned Stilfontein mine in the North
West, to poverty, reports SABC News. While acknowledging that illegal mining
is a crime, Sebei stressed that the miners’ rights to life and safety are
protected under the Constitution. This statement follows the Pretoria High
Court’s interim order allowing emergency personnel to access the mine shaft
to assist those trapped and facilitate their exit. The court also stipulated
that only emergency workers can enter the shaft.

 

 

Spaza Shops Under Pressure to Register Amidst Health Concerns

 

Spaza shop owners in Seshego, Limpopo have voiced their concerns over
President Cyril Ramaphosa’s recent directive requiring registration within
21 days, reports SABC News. The measure follows several incidents of
food-borne illnesses and deaths linked to spaza shops nationwide. Ramaphosa
announced that all spaza shops and food-handling businesses must register
with their municipalities and comply with health standards. Shops failing to
register or meet the required standards within the specified period will be
shut down. Local spaza shop owners Barso Dube and Mamotseke Mohlapamaswi
argued that the 21-day deadline is insufficient.-bBC

 

 

 

 

Africa: Coffee Prices Surge On EU Deforestation Rules

Coffee prices surged to their highest levels in the latest auction, driven
by strong demand as buyers stockpile ahead of the European Union's
deforestation regulation, which threatens to tighten market supplies.

 

In Kenya, the cost of Arabica surged to $276 for a 50-kilo bag, up from $251
in the previous sale, marking the highest value since the start of the crop
year in October.

 

On the global front, December futures for Arabica coffee reached a 13-year
peak, while robusta recorded its highest level in a month.

 

The sharp rally comes amid concerns over potential supply disruptions
following the European Parliament's move to enforce stricter deforestation
rules.

 

 

If the EU fails to amend the regulations by December's deadline, the
European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will take effect, curbing coffee
exports from deforestation-prone nations such as Brazil and Indonesia.

 

The EUDR, set to come into force within a month, extends its scope to
commodities including coffee, palm oil, and cocoa, raising alarm among
traders over compliance challenges and repercussions.

 

The regulation requires companies to map their supply chains digitally,
linking raw materials to specific plots. This mandate poses significant
hurdles for smaller farms, especially those in remote regions.

 

Ethiopia, Africa's leading coffee exporter, is already feeling the strain,
with reports of reduced orders impacting small-scale farmers who rely
heavily on export revenues.

 

Some buyers have indicated that purchasing significant volumes of Ethiopian
coffee may not be feasible under the new rules.

 

Traders also voiced concerns that coffee bought now could be subject to
penalties if used in products sold in the EU after 2025 without meeting
compliance standards.

 

The European market is crucial for Kenyan coffee, contributing significantly
to farmers' incomes and foreign exchange earnings.

 

In the past financial year, Belgium, home to the EU's headquarters, emerged
as the top buyer, importing coffee worth $64 million (Ksh7.4 billion), a 17
percent increase from the previous year.

 

Germany, ranked third, imported $36.7 million (Ksh4.2 billion), up from $28
million (Ksh3 billion) the prior year.

 

Deforestation, a pressing issue in Africa, is the second-largest contributor
to global warming after fossil fuel emissions.

 

- Business Day Africa.

 

 

 

 

Uganda: 170,000 Coffee Farmers So Far Registered Ahead of EU Deadline

Government has registered 170,000 coffee farmers in just two weeks as part
of a nationwide effort to comply with the European Union's new coffee trade
regulations.

 

With a target of registering up to 1.8 million coffee farmers by December
30, the initiative is a critical step in ensuring Uganda's coffee sector
meets the EU's stringent EUDR (European Union Due Diligence Regulation)
compliance deadline.

 

The milestone was announced by Israel Ssebugenyi, a technical expert with
the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA), during a coffee
stakeholders' engagement meeting held at Brovard Hotel in Masaka City.

 

 

The meeting brought together local government officials, coffee farmers,
district coordinators, and other stakeholders from coffee-growing regions
including Masaka, Rakai, Kalungu, and Bukomansimbi.

 

Ssebugenyi emphasized the significance of the registration effort, noting
that the EU market accounts for 60-65% of Uganda's coffee exports.
Compliance with the EUDR is essential to maintain access to this major trade
partner.

 

"This registration process is vital for our coffee industry's long-term
sustainability and continued access to global markets," Ssebugenyi said.

 

"It's important to clarify that the registration is for compliance with
international standards, not for taxation."

 

The registration is part of a national effort to implement a National
Traceability System that ensures full transparency in the coffee supply
chain.

 

 

To achieve this, the government has partnered with Pula, a data solutions
provider, which has been contracted to document Uganda's coffee farms and
their owners.

 

According to Ivan Mugeere, Pula's Country Director, the registration is
progressing swiftly.

 

"As of now, we've successfully registered 170,000 farmers, and we're
continuously collecting data. Our goal is to reach 1.8 million coffee
farmers by the end of December," Mugeere said. "This will allow Uganda to
meet EU trade regulations and ensure our coffee is traceable from farm to
export."

 

Pula's enumerators are using a custom-developed mobile application to
collect both farmer and farm-specific data. This includes personal details
like the farmer's name and contact information, as well as farm
characteristics such as the size, age, and variety of coffee grown.

 

The data is captured using GPS technology, which creates accurate digital
maps of farm boundaries.

 

 

To verify the accuracy of the data, Pula employs a thorough validation
process. Data is cleaned and cross-checked for inconsistencies, such as
incorrect farm sizes or discrepancies in yield reports.

 

Once verified, the data is submitted for third-party approval, ensuring it
meets international standards.

 

With the registration process set to cover all coffee-growing districts by
December, the effort has already reached most areas except for West Nile,
where registration is scheduled to begin on November 11, 2024.

 

The registration drive is part of Uganda's broader strategy to improve
traceability, sustainability, and market access for its coffee sector.

 

The government has allocated shs13.9 billion in the FY 2024/25 budget for
the implementation of the National Traceability System.

 

This system will enhance transparency and compliance across Uganda's coffee
value chain, making it easier to track coffee from farm to export.

 

At the Masaka meeting, local government leaders, farmers, and industry
stakeholders discussed the importance of the registration process.

 

While many expressed support for the government's efforts, there were also
concerns about the tight timeline and the potential impact of
non-compliance. Some farmers voiced fears that the registration could lead
to higher taxes, but officials clarified that the purpose is strictly for
regulatory compliance, not taxation.

 

Masaka's Resident District Commissioner (RDC) Huddu Hussein urged
stakeholders to remain focused on the goal of meeting the December deadline,
warning against politicizing the registration effort.

 

"We must work together as a nation to ensure that our farmers are
well-informed and fully compliant with the regulations," Hussein said. "This
is a critical initiative for the future of our coffee sector, and we cannot
afford to let misunderstandings delay progress."

 

In addition to meeting EU regulations, the government and UCDA are
encouraging farmers to adopt best practices, including innovative farming
techniques, new coffee varieties, and inter-cropping, to improve
productivity and quality.

 

The push to meet EU compliance also comes amid strong export growth.

 

In August 2024, Uganda set a new record by exporting 837,915 60-kilo bags of
coffee, valued at US$ 221.63 million -- the highest monthly export figure in
the country's history. For the 2023/2024 financial year, Uganda's total
coffee exports amounted to 6.13 million bags worth US$ 1.15 billion.

 

While the EU remains Uganda's primary coffee market, efforts are underway to
diversify exports to new regions, including China, the Middle East, and
North Africa.

 

These markets, like the EU, have specific import requirements, and Uganda is
working to meet those standards as well.

 

--Nile Post.

 

 

 

 

Uganda: President Museveni, Speaker Among Team Up to Tackle Poverty in
Serere

President Museveni has previously defended Among against criticism, stating
that the real problem facing Uganda is "traitors working for foreigners"
rather than individuals like Among.

 

President Museveni is set to engage with local communities in Serere
District, alongside Speaker of Parliament Anita Among, as part of his
oversight on government anti-poverty initiatives.

 

This move aims to address the pressing issue of poverty in the region.

 

Speaker Among, who has been instrumental in various development projects,
including the construction of the Bukedea Teaching Hospital and College of
Health Sciences, is expected to play a key role in the initiative.

 

 

President Museveni has previously defended Among against criticism, stating
that the real problem facing Uganda is "traitors working for foreigners"
rather than individuals like Among.

 

The President's visit to Serere is a significant step towards addressing
poverty and promoting economic growth in the region.

 

By working together with local leaders like Speaker Among, Museveni hopes to
identify effective solutions to the challenges faced by the community.

 

As the government continues to implement anti-poverty initiatives, the
collaboration between President Museveni and Speaker Among is expected to
yield positive results for the people of Serere.

 

"We always get together and see how we help out people and help them out of
the mistakes they may be involved in," President Museveni said in a previous
address, highlighting the importance of collective effort in addressing
social issues.

 

-Nile Post.

 

 

 

Uganda: Bobi Wine Losing Support Due to Lack of Clear Message, Says NRM's
Mulindwa

Speaking on Sanyuka TV on Monday, Mulindwa forecasted a significant drop in
the National Unity Platform's (NUP) influence in the 2026 general elections,
particularly in Buganda.

 

Rogers Mulindwa, the senior manager for Information, Communication, and
Public Relations at the National Resistance Movement (NRM), has claimed that
Robert Kyagulanyi, popularly known as Bobi Wine, is losing public support
because of an unclear political message.

 

Speaking on Sanyuka TV on Monday, Mulindwa forecasted a significant drop in
the National Unity Platform's (NUP) influence in the 2026 general elections,
particularly in Buganda.

 

 

He criticised Kyagulanyi's approach, stating that his communication lacks
substance.

 

"There is no message from Kyagulanyi; the statements are made by Bobi Wine.
I am also a fan of Bobi Wine and enjoy his music," Mulindwa remarked,
suggesting that the NUP leader's political messaging does not resonate with
voters.

 

Mulindwa further argued that NUP would find it challenging to retain
parliamentary seats in Buganda, predicting the party would win fewer than 11
seats due to what he described as unfulfilled promises.

 

"People are tired of them because they failed to deliver on the promises
they made," he added, pointing to what he believes is growing voter
dissatisfaction in the region.

 

He also dismissed the opposition's chances of unseating President Museveni
in the 2026 elections, asserting that any potential change in leadership
would more likely come from within the NRM itself.

 

"The opposition cannot defeat Museveni. If there is a change in leadership,
it will likely come from another NRM candidate," Mr Mulindwa stated.

 

Mr Mulindwa expressed support for electoral reforms, advocating for a return
to open voting by lining up behind candidates instead of using secret
ballots.

 

He argued that this method would reduce costs and simplify the electoral
process.

 

"I would prefer voting by lining up behind the candidate rather than using a
secret ballot because it's easier and saves unnecessary costs," he said.

 

He also congratulated Grace Akifeza, an NRM-affiliated candidate, on her
recent electoral victory, despite her earlier loss in the party primaries.

 

Mr Mulindwa defended her commitment to the NRM, clarifying that her
rejection in the primaries was due to voter decisions and not a reflection
of the party's stance.

 

"The truth is that Akifeza Grace is for NRM; it was the voters who rejected
her in the primaries, not the party. I want to congratulate her upon her
winning the election," he said.-Nile Post.

 

 

 

South Africa: SA Seeks Balance Between Livelihoods and Renewable Energy
Ambitions

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - President Cyril Ramaphosa has highlighted the
importance of considering the livelihoods and jobs of ordinary people, as
the energy sector transitions towards renewable sources.

 

"As we can go towards renewable energy, there must be a just transition.
There is a transition that we in South Africa have to go through and it must
be the type of transition that advances the interests of ordinary people, as
it grows the economy.

 

"The opportunities are enormous, and we just need to utilise the enablers to
ensure it benefits everyone," the President said on Sunday.

 

President Ramaphosa spoke in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, where he and European
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen jointly launched the 'Leveraging
the Potential of Renewables - The Road to Johannesburg' campaign.

 

 

The campaign was launched during a panel discussion with Hugh Evans,
co-founder and CEO of Global Citizen.

 

The Global Citizen initiative, along with the 2024 G20 Presidency, supported
by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, brought together over 450
world leaders, innovators, and advocates on the eve of the G20 Leaders'
Summit, which kicks off today.

 

Their goal is to promote urgent action to combat poverty and tackle the
climate crisis.

 

"As we go to renewables, relying more on the sun, wind and hydro, we've got
to make sure that as people lose jobs and as their livelihoods are eroded,
and as towns where we used to draw fossil fuels [become] deserted, we have
to make sure that the transition for ordinary people becomes a transition
that they benefit from," President Ramaphosa stressed.

 

 

The Head of State believes workers should not fear job loss without being
skilled in new technologies.

 

A prime example of South Africa's commitment to skilling workers in new
technologies is the partnership between the Mpumalanga Provincial Government
(which is home to about 80% of power stations in South Africa), the
Presidential Climate Commission, the Climate Investment Fund and the World
Bank. The entities are working together to explore plans on re-skilling and
upskilling the most vulnerable in the labour force and supporting small
businesses and co-operatives in local communities.

 

In last year's State of the Province Address, former Mpumalanga Premier
Refilwe Mtshweni-Tsipane assured citizens that plans towards the Just Energy
Transition will leave no one behind.

 

 

READ | Just energy transition to be inclusive

 

South Africa faces challenges due to its reliance on fossil fuels, while
witnessing growth in the climate sector.

 

Currently, only 3% of global investments in renewable infrastructure are
allocated to Africa, while the European Commission aims to triple renewable
energy investment by 2030.

 

"Africa is well endowed with sun and wind, and that can be utilised to good
effect to grow our economies to ensure that at a social level, people have
access to electricity," President Ramaphosa said.

 

However, he stated that this does not come cheaply and requires financing
and clear decisions by leaders, not only on the African continent but
globally as well.

 

He emphasised the need for collaboration between African countries and
developed nations to fulfil commitments and secure essential funding and
technology.

 

According to the President, energy drives growth and economies.

 

The 12-month 'Leveraging the Potential of Renewables - The Road to
Johannesburg' campaign aims to scale renewable energy in Africa by
leveraging South Africa's G20 Presidency.

 

The initiative seeks to tackle issues of inequality and promote sustainable
development, to provide access to power to millions who currently lack
electricity.

 

According to President Ramaphosa, South Africa's G20 Presidency will also
focus on the importance of solidarity and equality in addressing global
challenges, particularly in the context of Africa's history of inequality.

 

Preparations are underway for South Africa's G20 Presidency and the hosting
of the G20 Summit in 2025. South Africa is set to assume the Chair of the
G20 from Brazil on 1 December this year.

 

The country's first citizen also touched on the role of the upcoming 2025
United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) in focusing on a just
transition and the importance of global support for this transition.

 

In her address, Von der Leyen outlined the European Green Deal and its goal
of achieving climate neutrality by 2050. While underscoring the importance
of global cooperation, she said there was a need to ensure no continent is
left behind, particularly Africa.

 

"But if we want to be successful in fighting climate change and protecting
nature, we must think globally.

 

"We will only be successful if we leave no continent behind, and [ensure]
the transition in Africa is a just one.

 

"Africa has, as we said, all the resources necessary in abundance -- sun and
wind, and 60% of the best solar places worldwide. But only 3% of the global
investments in infrastructure for renewables go to Africa. And with that,
the task is clear. We must step up," Von der Leyen said.-SAnews.gov.za.

 

 

 

 

 

Africa Topples Asia, Europe, Us As Africa's Preferred Trade Market

African businesses increasingly prefer to trade across the continent's
borders over out-of-the-continent markets like Asia, the US, and Europe, due
to a rising quality of made-in-Africa goods, lower market prices, and
accessibility.

 

The latest Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer, which tracks 10 African
countries among the 54 signatory nations of the African Continental Free
Trade Area Agreement (AfCFTA) shows 37% of the businesses prefer partners
based in African markets compared to Asia(24%), Europe(16%) and North
America(3%).

 

Businesses from Namibia (75%), Tanzania (48%) and Angola (43%) showed the
highest affinity for cross-border trade compared to firms from some of the
continent's biggest economies- Nigeria (34%) and Kenya (34%) with a huge
preference for Asian markets like China.

 

 

"Businesses surveyed report that trading within Africa is easier than
trading with the rest of the world. This observation underlines their
preferences in trading partners, revealing a significant lean towards
engaging in commerce with African markets," said authors of the Barometer.

 

Quality of goods (72%) was the most significant consideration for businesses
looking to trade with partners in Africa, followed by market prices (51%)
and market accessibility (38%).

 

Rising intra-African trade sentiment among surveyed businesses is centred on
good trading relationships and affordable transportation that have
significantly increased from 5% and 2%, respectively, in May 2023 to 15% for
both in August 2024.

 

 

"This result contrasts the perceptions of surveyed business on world trade,
with trading relationships taking strain due to the high transport cost,"
said the survey.

 

Ongoing implementation of the AfCFTA has been the most significant
contributor to easing trade barriers across country borders, propelled by
the Guided Trade Initiative (GTI) that started with eight countries in 2022,
trading in select goods to catalyse trade through preferential tariff
arrangements.

 

Up to 30 more African countries are expected to be covered by the GTI by the
close of 2024, as well as an increase in the scope of products to be traded,
including biopesticides, packaged moringa, tea, coffee, and meat products.

 

Other initiatives under the AfCFTA are also emerging, opening up the
regional borders to small businesses.

 

In the first week of November, Kenyan Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises
(MSMEs) shipped their first exports of assorted products to South Sudan,
Zambia and DRC under the AfCFTA Framework in an initiative dubbed
TradeConnect.

 

 

Over the next 12 months, the TradeConnect initiative aims to mobilise and
transport 1000 containers of diverse goods worth US $ 1.2 million across the
continent.

 

The Kenyan government hopes the TradeConnect initiative will improve Kenya's
exports by 10 per cent annually and cut the logistics nightmare for
exporters by 30 per cent.

 

A growing intra-African trade infrastructure development connecting African
regions, for instance, the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR), which connects the
port city of Mombasa to the capital, Nairobi, and planned extension to
Uganda, is also seen easing the cost of goods and faster lead times across
borders.

 

Once fully operational, the SGR will cover approximately 3,800 kilometres
(2,400 miles) and link Kenya to Uganda, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic
of the Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, and Ethiopia.

 

The sentiments positively impacted intra-African trade as a percentage of
total African trade, with the Barometer showing it rose slightly from 13.6%
in 2022 to 14.9% in 2023.

 

Albeit at a slightly larger scale, the majority of surveyed African
businesses cited good quality products (84%), fast response times (82%), and
the low cost of importing (79%) as the most important elements in doing
business with China.

 

The nature of African business's involvement in trade with China is centred
on importing final goods and services (56%), importing raw materials (39%),
and buying final goods and services from Chinese wholesalers operating in
Africa (16%).

 

A mere 3% of surveyed businesses favour trading with US-based companies,
which is most common in Kenya, where 8% of surveyed enterprises desire to
deal with American firms.

 

The low favorability rating across the ten markets, the Barometer said, is
driven by businesses reporting high shipping costs (50%), high tariffs and
taxes (37%), currency fluctuations (28%), and longer lead times (27%).

 

"This aligns with macro-level trade data, albeit to a lesser extent, with
imports and exports between the two regions(US-Kenya) declining by 7.3% and
6.2%, respectively, between 2022 and 2023," the survey reports.-Independent
(Kampala).

 

 

 

 

Senegal Votes to Shape Parliament As Reforms and Economy Hang in Balance

Senegalese voters head to the polls Sunday to elect a new National Assembly
- a crucial test for President Bassirou Diomaye Faye's government as it
seeks a parliamentary majority to push through its reform agenda.

 

More than seven million registered voters are choosing candidates for the
165-seat assembly from 41 political parties and entities. Polls opened at
8am local time and will close at 6pm.

 

The election follows months of political tension and unrest - some of the
worst in the country's recent history - that marked the run-up to the
presidential vote in March.

 

Faye won that election with 54 percent of the vote, promising economic
transformation, social justice, and anti-corruption measures.

 

The stakes are high for the ruling party Pastef, as control of parliament is
key to delivering on these pledges, raising hopes among the largely youthful
population in the West African country.

 

 

Campaigning has grown heated in recent days and comes at a precarious time
for the new government as is navigates a spiraling fiscal crisis that could
undermine its ability to deliver on promises.

 

Senegal's opposition, led by a coalition of two parties, including the
Republic Party of former Prime Minister Macky Sall, poses a strong
challenge.

 

Former rivals Sonko and Macky Sall face off again in Senegal's parliamentary
elections

 

Economic challenges

 

Senegal faces significant economic hurdles. Inflation has put pressure on
households, while unemployment remains high among the country's growing
youth population.

 

"We want a lower cost of living, affordable water, electricity, and
transport, so everyone can work and live decently," said Cheikh Diagne, a
street seller in Dakar.

 

The government is also grappling with a debt crisis after revealing a
wider-than-reported budget deficit left by the previous administration.

 

Senegal is also plunging towards a debt crisis after the new government said
it had discovered the budget deficit was much wider than reported by the
previous government.

 

A $1.9 billion IMF programme is currently on hold pending the results of a
government audit.

 

Senegal's economic policy in focus Faye and his Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko
will need to address these issues if they secure a majority.

 

They also face criticism over their response to record flooding and the
ongoing migration crisis, as many Senegalese youth risk their lives
attempting to reach Europe.

 

The dissolved parliament, previously controlled by the opposition, had
blocked much of the government's legislative agenda.

 

Sunday's vote will determine whether Faye can avoid similar gridlock in the
future.

 

Unprecedented floods devastate harvests in northeastern Senegal

 

Mariam Wane Ly, a former parliamentarian and prominent figure in Senegalese
politics, expressed confidence in Pastef's chances.

 

"I think it's going to make up for all the unhappiness," she said.

 

Babacar Ndiaye, research director at the think-tank WATHI, told RFI that
Senegalese voters tend to favour the president in parliamentary elections.

 

"When they choose a president, they then give that president the means to
work and govern," Ndiaye said.

 

"Every time a president has won, he has in due course also gained an
absolute majority in the National Assembly."-RFI website.

 

 

 

 

Nigeria: Uncertainties As Petrol Imports Rival Dangote Refinery's Supply
Output

Nigeria imported 1.5 million metric tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS)
during the period under review.

 

Despite expectations that the Dangote Refinery will transform Nigeria's
energy landscape and improve supply, imported petrol continues to dominate
the domestic market, highlighting a persistent dependency on foreign fuel
supplies.

 

Shipping data obtained by PREMIUM TIMES from motor tanker vessel activities
between 1 October and 11 November reveals a substantial inflow of petroleum
products through Lagos, Warri, Calabar, and Port Harcourt ports amid
concerns over Nigeria's domestic refining capacity.

 

 

Data showed that Nigeria imported 1.5 million metric tonnes of petrol, an
equivalent of about 2 billion litres, within the period under review.

 

A total of 414,018 metric tonnes of diesel and 13,500 metric tonnes of jet
fuel were also imported within the same period.

 

The cost of fuel imports reflects the heavy financial burden on Nigeria,
straining the nation's resources and exacerbating economic challenges.

 

The import data raises concern about domestic refining in Nigeria,
especially as the management of the Dangote Refinery, located in Lekki, says
the facility holds over 500 million litres of petrol in stock.

 

Aliko Dangote, the refinery's founder, recently urged marketers and the
Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) to halt imports and
source their supplies locally.

 

However, the refinery's operational capacity remains a source of concern.

 

 

Between September 15 and October 5, PREMIUM TIMES reported that the facility
delivered only 148 million litres of petrol--far below the 575 million
litres sought by the NNPCL during the same period.

 

Implications

 

Nigeria's continued dependence on imported fuel is exacerbating economic
challenges, particularly the weakening of the naira.

 

Last Friday, the naira depreciated to N1,740/$ in the parallel market and
N1,652/$ in the official forex market.

 

The surging import bill is draining Nigeria's foreign reserves, with an
attendant impact on the stability of the domestic currency.

 

The Dangote Refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, was
envisioned as a game-changer for Nigeria's energy sector.

 

But since it began operations, logistic and operational hurdles, coupled
with marketers' preference for cheaper imports, have slowed its impact.

 

 

The NNPC recently stated that while it prioritises domestic sourcing,
economic considerations often tilt decisions in favour of imports.

 

"While NNPC prioritises sourcing products from domestic refineries, this is
contingent upon economic viability. If local supply is cost-effective, it
will be preferred, but the same principle applies to other marketers, who
will also evaluate total costs when deciding whether to buy locally or
import," NNPC's Chief Corporate Communications Officer, Femi Soneye, said in
a statement.

 

Ports like Lagos, Warri, and Calabar remain hubs for fuel imports, with
tankers regularly offloading petrol, diesel, and jet fuel.

 

For instance, Lagos recorded 555,121 metric tonnes of PMS delivery in
October.

 

Within the same period, Warri recorded 281,100 metric tonnes, Port Harcourt
had 94,224.821 metric tonnes, and Calabar recorded 64,000 metric tonnes.

 

Expert speaks

 

Dan Kunle, a renowned energy expert, called for urgent measures to address
the challenges plaguing Nigeria's oil and gas sector.

 

He stressed the need for transparency in fuel consumption data, urging the
Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) and the Midstream and Downstream
Petroleum Regulatory Authority (MDRA) to disclose the exact daily
consumption figures for petrol (PMS) and diesel (AGO).

 

"We need forensic experts to give us the exact numbers. Without these, our
losses through the importation of inflated volumes and poor-quality fuel
will continue," he said.

 

Mr Kunle questioned the recent surge in fuel imports, describing it as
"curious" given the operational capacity of the Dangote Refinery.

 

He urged the Federal Government to collaborate with the refinery to ensure
an adequate supply of crude at optimal prices, thereby reducing dependence
on imports.

 

"The Federal Government can conveniently conclude a win-win arrangement with
the Dangote Refinery to save forex and increase local crude production," he
added.

 

Mr Kunle also noted the importance of enabling the refinery to scale up its
capacity from 400,000 barrels per day to 650,000 barrels per day,
highlighting crude supply constraints as a critical bottleneck.

 

Speaking about Nigeria's non-functional state-owned refineries, he
criticised the lack of progress in reviving them and questioned their
potential crude supply sources if they eventually resume operations. He also
raised concerns about the high import volumes overwhelming Nigerian ports,
leading to increased handling costs that ultimately drive up fuel prices.

 

He appealed to President Bola Tinubu to address these inefficiencies, adding
that "Something very unhealthy is going on in the oil and gas industry in
Nigeria. Dangote Refinery is not the problem but a big solution. This
massive, deliberate importation must stop to allow our local refineries to
survive."

 

-Premium Times.

 

 

 

 

Nigeria: N4 Million Debt - Bobrisky's U.S.-Based Accuser Replies Him With
Audio Proof

Mr John, a socialite, allegedly leaked an audio conversation between himself
and Bobrisky to VDM to recover a lingering N4m debt.

 

Barely 24 hours controversial crossdresser Idris Okuneye, popularly known as
Bobrisky, sued the EFCC, National Assembly for N1.2 billion and addressed
the infamous leaked audio by social media influencer Martins 'VDM' Otse, his
US-based accuser, Bintin John, has shared another damning audio proof.

 

Mr John, a socialite, allegedly leaked an audio conversation between himself
and Bobrisky to VDM to recover a lingering N4m debt.

 

Now, here's the backstory. In September, the controversial viral phone
recording, leaked by VDM, sparked a heated debate and indicted respected
human rights lawyer Femi Falana and his son, Falz.

 

 

In the recording, Bobrisky alleged that he paid the EFCC N15 million to drop
money laundering charges against him.

 

According to VDM, the audio surfaced after Bobrisky reportedly failed to
repay N4 million borrowed from an associate to raise the said N15 million
allegedly paid to the EFCC.

 

Furthermore, Bobrisky, in a now-deleted Instagram post, denied the
allegation made in a leaked audio by VDM. He clarified, however, that the
individual in the phone conversation, whom he identified as Bintin, did not
lend him N4 million but gifted it to him due to the nature of their
relationship. The crossdresser further alleged that Mr John's claim of
lending him N4 million stemmed from his refusal to date him.

 

But in the early hours of Sunday, Mr John countered Bobrisky's denial with
an audio recording acknowledging the alleged N4 million debt.

 

He wrote: "Honestly, I feel bad for the people you mentioned in the VN
because I know you are shameless and disgusting. You're trying to use your
stupid and carefree clout-chasing behaviour to tarnish those who helped you.

 

"I've realised the kind of person you are: selfish and self-centred, but I
won't stoop to your level. I know you do not have dementia or are suffering
from amnesia because you and I know your name, and others will be involved.
Even VDM doesn't have this one. I pity you and those supporting you.

 

For the record, I am not Gegrel, nor did I ever kiss this nonentity called
Bobrisky. There's nothing to hide. You came to my Airbnb to discuss how I
could help you get to the States because Mr Royce took your money and did
nothing. Your brain would reset now. Also, I have all my guys in the house
who can testify to it. But I will wait for your lawsuit".

 

In addition to a series of statements, Mr John also attached a 30-second
snippet alleged to be Bobrisky seeking financial assistance.

 

"Good morning, see Bintin, I'm going through it. When I contacted you, I
said I only needed N4 million. He now called me those people that helped
him... because we got the pardon from the President."

 

As of press time, Bobrisky has yet to respond to Mr John's latest claims.

 

-Premium Times.

 

 

 

 

 

 


 


 


 Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

 

Cellphone:         +263 71 944 1674 | +27 79 993 5557 

Email:                <mailto:bulls at bullszimbabwe.com>
bulls at bullszimbabwe.com

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www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe



 

 

 


 

INVESTORS DIARY 2024

 


Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

 


 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 


Companies under Cautionary

 

 

 


 

 

 

 


CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

 


Padenga

Econet

RTG

 


Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

 


 

 

 

 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 


 

 


DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of
Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not
constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or
subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has
been compiled from s believed to be reliable, but no representation or
warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All
opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without
notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be
suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth
companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than
the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any
other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability
whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its
contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this
report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent
investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of
any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are
for guideline purposes only and d from third parties.

 


 

 


 (c) 2024 Web:  <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> www.bullszimbabwe.com Email:
<mailto:bulls at bullszimbabwe.com> bulls at bullszimbabwe.com Tel: +27 79 993
5557 | +263 71 944 1674

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

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