Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 09 September 2024

Tue Sep 10 07:41:17 CAT 2024

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 09 September 2024

ZSE commentary 

NMB highlights Monday's session...

Banking group NMB highlighted the session as 9.34m shares worth circa
$18.25m exchanged hands in week opener. The trade accounted for 85.75% of
the total volumes traded and 92.15% of the turnover. The other notable
volume driver of the day was Ecocash that claimed 10.14% of the volumes and
4.28% of the value aggregates. Activity aggregates enhanced in the session
as volume traded ballooned 431.47% to 10.9m shares while, value traded grew
400.48% to $19.8m. A total of 296,307 units exchanged hands in the ETF
sector. Datvest ETF inched up 3.25% to $0.0300 while, Morgan & Co Multi
Sector ETF stepped up 14.47% to settle at $0.6410. OMTI ETF slipped 0.35% to
end the day pegged at $0.1395. The Tigere REIT went up 3.57% to end the day
pegged at $0.9598. The Revitus Opportunities was stable at $0.8525 on 550
units.

Banking group FBC headlined the top performers of the day on a 15.00% jump
to $6.5550, followed by First Mutual Holdings that went up 14.49% to close
at $1.9300. RTG edged up 0.72% to  $0.4601 while,  beverage  giant  Delta
charged  0.62% to $14.1409. Retailer OK Zimbabwe capped the top five
performers on a 0.37% rise to end the day pegged at $0.8525. On the losing
side was NMB that lost 14.99% to $1.9530, trailed by brick maker Willdale
that tumbled 4.96% to $0.0380. Telecoms giant Econet fell 0.40% to $3.7184
while, ZB Financial Holdings capped the fallers of the day on a 0.26%
retreat to $6.3336. The market closed with a positive breadth of four as ten
counters recorded gains against four that faltered . The All Share Index
added 1.18% to 202.92pts while, the Blue-Chip Index gained 1.58% to
212.60pts. The Agriculture Index put on a negligible 0.001% to 177.15pts
while, the Mid Cap Index firmed up 0.29% to 167.48pts.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Currencies & Equity 

Kenya

Kenyan shilling unchanged versus dollar

(Reuters) - Kenya's shilling was unchanged against the dollar on Monday,
although it was seen under pressure from renewed hard currency demand by
manufacturers and fuel importers, traders said.

Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 128.25/129.25 per dollar at 0936
GMT, compared with Friday's closing rate.

South Africa

South African rand slips with dollar in driving seat

(Reuters) - The South African rand slipped against a stronger dollar in
early trade on Monday, and analysts said the U.S. currency and economic data
were likely to largely determine the rand's trajectory this week.

At 0635 GMT, the rand traded at 17.8850 against the dollar, about 0.3%
weaker than its previous close.

The dollar was up around 0.2% against a basket of global currencies, as
markets looked to Wednesday's U.S. inflation report for more clues about the
size of a Federal Reserve rate cut expected next week.

U.S. producer inflation and consumer sentiment data are scheduled for
release.

"Direction in currency markets will likely be taken from U.S. data
releases," ETM Analytics said in a research note, adding that a bigger Fed
rate cut would likely boost the risk-sensitive rand's prospects.

Local data points this week include July manufacturing output figures on
Tuesday and mining production numbers on Thursday.

Economists polled by Reuters predict both sectors will register year-on-year
growth after declines in June, reflecting volatile conditions in key sectors
of Africa's most industrialised economy.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was unchanged in early trade,
the yield at 8.99%.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

US dollar perks up as traders reduce bets on larger Fed rate cut

(Reuters) - The dollar snapped back against the yen and other major
currencies on Monday after losses last week, as investors looked ahead to
key U.S. inflation data and reduced expectations for an outsized Federal
Reserve interest rate cut next week.

The greenback rose for the first time in five sessions versus the Japanese
currency, while rising for a second straight day against the euro.

U.S. rate futures have fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the
Fed's Sept. 17-18 policy meeting, with a roughly 29% chance of a bigger,
half-percentage-point move, according to LSEG calculations. On Friday,
pricing for the bigger cut rose as high as 50%.

For 2024, traders expect 113 bps of easing, up from around 100 bps.

"I think the Fed is going to cut by 25 (basis points) next week. There could
be a jumbo rate move of 50 in November depending on the inflation data that
comes out. But the latest information on growth shows the economy is doing
okay: it's definitely slowing and moderating," said Amo Sahota, executive
director at Klarity FX in San Francisco.

"It would be too harsh to say that the economy is collapsing, or in
recession ... Is the Fed behind the curve? Potentially yes, but they can get
there if they do a series of 25-basis-point moves. At some point a
50-basis-point cut would help the Fed get ahead of the curve."

In afternoon trading, the dollar was up 0.4% at 142.84 yen . The recovery on
Monday was a welcome respite for the dollar after a rough month so far. In
September, the dollar has lost 2.1%. Last week, the U.S. currency fell 2.7%
versus the yen.

Against the euro, the dollar advanced, with the single European currency
falling 0.4% to $1.1041 . The euro's fall pushed the dollar index, a gauge
of the greenback's value against six major peers, up 0.4% at 101.56 .

INFLATION DATA

The attention is now on the release on Wednesday of the U.S. consumer price
index (CPI) report even though the Fed has made it clear employment has
become more of a focus than inflation. The headline CPI is expected to have
risen 0.2% on a month-on-month basis in August, according to a Reuters poll,
unchanged from the previous month.

But on a year-on-year basis it is forecast to have gained 2.6%, down from
2.9% in July.

The release on Friday of the U.S. jobs report for August did not offer
clarity on the question of whether the Fed would deliver a regular
25-basis-point or an outsized 50-basis-point rate cut next week.

Fed policymakers on Friday signalled they are ready to kick off a series of
rate cuts, noting a cooling in the labor market that could accelerate into
something more worrying in the absence of lower borrowing costs.

The European Central Bank, on the other hand, will meet on Thursday and is
widely expected to cut its main interest rate by 25 bps to 3.50%, having
kicked off its rate-cutting cycle in June with a quarter-percentage-point
easing.

Traders have priced in a 48% chance of a similar move in December, according
to LSEG calculations.

In other currency pairs, the dollar gained 0.6% against the Swiss franc to
0.8482 francs . It touched an eight-month low versus the franc on Friday.

The British pound fell to more than a two-week low of $1.3068 ahead of a
slew of economic data this week that could shape expectations around the
Bank of England's policy moves this year. Sterling was last down 0.4% at
$1.3075.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Gold prices edge lower ahead of US inflation print

(Reuters) - Gold prices eased on Tuesday, pressured by a firmer dollar,
while traders braced for key U.S. inflation figures that could offer hints
about the size of the Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction next week.

Spot gold dipped 0.1% to 2,503.09 per ounce, as of 0301 GMT. U.S. gold
futures remained steady at $2,532.20.

The dollar (.DXY), opens new tab hit a 1-week high, making gold more
expensive for other currency holders.

Market attention will turn towards U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on
Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) reading on Thursday.

The headline CPI is expected to have risen 0.2% on a month-on-month basis in
August, according to a Reuters poll, unchanged from July.

"The inflation data is expected to reflect further disinflation and offer
the go-ahead for the Fed to ease rates... Barring any significant surprises
in the data, gold prices should remain well-supported above the $2,500
level. We expect gold prices to touch over $2,660 in the coming months," IG
market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said.

"Gold prices remain locked in its consolidation phase within a broader
upward trend for now, as gains were capped by a slight rebound in the US
dollar."

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding a zero-yield
bullion.

The Fed is all but certain to ease rates when it meets next week, with
traders pricing in a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point cut versus a 30% chance
of a 50-bp reduction, according to the CME FedWatch Tool., opens new tab

According to a New York Federal Reserve report released on Monday, the U.S.
public's expectations for inflation remained stable last month, even as
current price pressures continued to ease.

Spot silver fell 0.3% to $28.27 per ounce, platinum gained 0.5% to $942.45
and palladium was up by 0.4% to $950.55.

INVESTORS DIARY 2024

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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