Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 11 September 2024

Thu Sep 12 09:25:41 CAT 2024

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 11 September 2024

ZSE commentary 

Econet sparkles in mid-week session ...

Telecoms giant Econet highlighted today's trading session as circa 4.95m
shares worth $22.25m exchanged hands in the name. This represented 84.45% of
the total volumes traded and 87.05% of the turnover . Volumes surged 80.16%
to 5.86m shares while, value outturn ballooned 284.04% to $25.56m. Foreign
sales amounted to $213,489 .00 with no purchases recorded in the session .
The Tigere REIT declined 10.36% to settle at $0.9000 as 6.03m units worth
$5.42m traded. The Revitus Property was stable at $0.8525 on 1,500 units.
The Morgan and Co MCS rose 1.40% to $0.6500 while, the Datvest MCS came off
1.65% to $0.0295 .

The trio of BAT, First Mutual Holdings Limited and SeedCo Limited headlined
the winners of the day on a similar 15.00% charge to close at respective
prices of $49.4500, $2.2195 and 4.1105. ART Corporation firmed 14.71% to
$0.3900 while, property concern FMP notched 14.43% to $0.4005.  Fintech
group Ecocash pared off 14.09% to $0.6492 while, retailer OKZIM was 11.74%
softer at $0.7942. Brick makers Willdale receded 9.09% to trade at $0.0400
while, Meikles shed 5.16% to $5.6899. TSL capped the top five fallers of the
day on a 4.50% retreat to $2.7916.

The All Share Index put on 6.73% to close at its year high of 230.48pts
since April while, the ZSE Top Ten Index grew 8.99% to 251.lOpts. The ZSE
Agriculture Index edged up 2.03% to end the day at 184.72pts. The Mid Cap
Index slipped 0.36% to close at  169.lOpts.-efesecrities 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Currencies & Equity 

Kenya

Kenyan shilling unchanged against dollar, LSEG data shows

(Reuters) - The Kenyan shilling was unchanged against the U.S. dollar on
Wednesday, LSEG data showed, extending a recent period of stability that has
lasted about a month.

At 1040 GMT the shilling was quoted at 128.50/129.50 to the dollar, the same
as Tuesday's closing level.

The currency rallied strongly in the first half of 2024 as concerns eased
that the East African country would default on a $2 billion Eurobond that
matured in June, but it lost momentum from April onwards.

South Africa

South African rand edges higher as dollar dips after US election debate

(Reuters) - The South African rand edged higher against a weaker dollar in
early trade on Wednesday, with the greenback on the defensive after a
combative U.S. presidential debate.

Traders were also waiting nervously for a key U.S. inflation report later in
the day that could provide clues on how aggressively the Federal Reserve
cuts rates next week.

At 0600 GMT, the rand traded at 17.9050 against the dollar, about 0.2%
stronger than Tuesday's closing level.

The dollar was down around 0.3% against a basket of peers, as some currency
analysts saw Kamala Harris winning the debate against rival Donald Trump.

Investors broadly see the dollar strengthening in the event of a victory by
Trump, as tariffs might prop up the currency and higher fiscal spending
could boost interest rates.

With no major economic data due in South Africa on Wednesday, the rand is
likely to take its direction from moves on global markets.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond gained in early deals, with
the yield down 5 basis points to 8.965%.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Dollar Strengthens on Inflation Data, Damping 50-Basis Point Rate Cut Hopes

The dollar held steady near a four-week high against the euro on Thursday,
as recent US inflation data dampened expectations for a significant interest
rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.

Key Developments

Inflation Data Impact: US consumer price index (CPI) data showed a 0.2% rise
last month, matching July's advance. However, excluding food and energy, the
index climbed 0.3%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. This data
has led traders to scale back their expectations of a 50-basis point rate
cut, with the probability now standing at just 15% compared to 85% for a
25-basis point reduction. Despite this, markets are still pricing in a total
of 104 basis points of cuts by year-end, suggesting that further reductions
are anticipated in either the November or December meetings.

Dollar's Performance: The dollar rose 0.38% to 142.905 yen as of 0031 GMT,
recovering from a low of 140.71 hit on Wednesday. This rebound followed
comments from Bank of Japan board member Junko Nakagawa, who indicated that
low real rates could allow for further rate hikes. The dollar-yen pair
typically aligns with US long-term Treasury yields, which have bounced back
after reaching a 15-month low of 3.605% on Wednesday.

European Central Bank (ECB) Expectations: Investors are bracing for a likely
quarter-point rate cut from the ECB later on Thursday. The focus will be on
any indications of future rate cuts, as policymakers debate the pace of
further reductions following June's deposit rate cut to 3.75%.

Other Currency Movements: The euro eased to $1.1007, maintaining a low close
to Wednesday's weakest level since August 16. Sterling fell to $1.30360, its
lowest since August 20. The Swiss franc also saw a slight decline, with the
dollar gaining 0.08% to 0.8529 franc.

Important Information

US Inflation Data:

CPI rose 0.2% in August.

Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased 0.3%.

Market expectations adjusted for a 25-basis point rate cut instead of 50
basis points.

Federal Reserve and Market Expectations:

Probability of a 50-bp rate cut reduced to 15%.

Markets anticipate a total of 104 bps of cuts by the end of the year.

Bank of Japan Insights:

Comments from BOJ's Nakagawa suggest potential for further rate hikes.

Next BOJ board member to speak: Naoki Tamura.

ECB Outlook:

Expected to announce a quarter-point rate cut.

Focus on future rate cut pace and monetary policy direction.

Currency Movements:

Dollar rises against yen, euro, sterling, and Swiss franc.

Yen's failure to sustain gains may lead to recovery towards 145.50.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Gold inches higher as investors eye U.S. data for rate cues

Gold prices edged higher on Thursday, with traders focusing on the upcoming
U.S. economic data that may offer further insights into an expected
reduction in the Federal Reserve's interest rate next week.

Spot gold

was up 0.2% at $2,515.59 per ounce, as of 0353 GMT. U.S. gold futures

were steady at $2,543.40.

"Gold will likely break above $2,532. Only strong macroeconomic data,
particularly from the U.S., indicating significant growth or economic
improvement, could stop its upward trend," said Kelvin Wong, OANDA's senior
market analyst for Asia Pacific.

Traders will focus on the U.S. Producer Price Index and initial jobless
claims print, scheduled for release at 1230 GMT, as well as consumer
sentiment data coming out on Friday.

Headline PPI month-over-month is expected at 0.1%, while the year-over-year
read is expected at 1.8%. This compares to prints of last month's 0.1% and
2.2%, respectively.

Data on Wednesday showed that U.S. consumer prices rose marginally in
August, but underlying inflation showed some stickiness, which could
discourage the Federal Reserve from delivering a half-point interest rate
cut next week.

CPI data showed no major inflation spikes, which is supporting gold prices
to hold above $2,500 and suggesting no immediate changes to Fed policy, Wong
added.

U.S. central bankers will likely start long-awaited interest rate cuts next
week with a quarter-of-a-percentage-point reduction, as they seek to reduce
the odds of a recession even as stubbornly intact underlying price pressures
put them off more aggressive action. 

Zero-yield bullion tends to be a preferred investment amid lower interest
rates and geopolitical turmoil.

climbed 1.3% to $1,021.84, its highest since July 8, following comments on
export regulations from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Putin said on Wednesday that Moscow should consider limiting exports of
uranium, titanium and nickel in retaliation against the West.

INVESTORS DIARY 2024

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

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