Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 12 September 2024

Fri Sep 13 09:39:59 CAT 2024

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 12 September 2024

ZSE commentary 

Gains in selected heavies lift the market...

The ZSE continued to soar in Thursday's session as gains in selected heavies
lifted the market. The mainstream All Share Index added 2.48% to close at
236.20pts while, the Blue-Chip Index put on 2.27% to 256.80pts. The
Agriculture Index was 3.80% firmer at 191.75pts while, the Mid Cap Index
went up 1.36% to 171.40pts. BAT and SeedCo led the risers of the day for the
second consecutive session after gaining an identical 15.00% to close at
$56.8675 and $4.7270 apiece. First Mutual Holdings charged 14.98% to $2.5520
as Zimre Holdings Limited surged 14.80% to $0.3220. Banking group CBZ held
the fifth position of the risers' table after a 14.04% growth to $14.0977.
Ecocash dropped 14.98% to end pegged at $0.5520 while, Meikles declined
14.76% to $4.8500 . Milk processor Dairibord dipped 2.21% to settle at
$2.6500. Turnall retreated 1.32% to

$0.0690 as beverages giant Delta slipped 1.05% to $17.6956, having traded an
intraday low of $17.5000.

Volumes traded ballooned 3190.24% to 192.69m shares while, turnover garnered
337.05%to $111.69m. Ecocash was the top volume and value driver claiming
98.92% of the former and 94.20% of the latter after 190,604,027 shares
exchanged hands in the  name. The  Datvest  MCS ticked  up 0.41% to $0.0296
while, the Old Mutual ETF eased 0.30% to $0.1391. The Morgan and Co MCS was
stable at $0.6500 as 2,252 units traded. Cumulatively, 7.07m units worth
$6.73m exchanged hands in the two REITS. The Tigere REIT edged up 5.61% to
$0.9505 while, the Revitus Property put on 0.02% to $0.8529-efesecrities

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Currencies & Equity 

Kenyan and Zambian currencies seen stable, Nigeria's could weaken

(Reuters) - The Kenyan, Ugandan, Ghanaian and Zambian currencies are
expected to be broadly stable in the next week to Thursday, while Nigeria's
could fall, traders said.

KENYA

Kenya's shilling is expected to be little changed in the coming week,
extending a recent period of stability that has lasted about a month.

LSEG data quoted the shilling at 128.50/129.50 per dollar, compared with
128.25/129.25 at last Thursday's close.

"We're stuck within this range," one trader said. "The shilling has reached
a stable zone."

The local unit rallied strongly early this year as concerns eased that the
East African country would default on a $2 billion Eurobond that matured in
June, but it lost momentum from April onwards.

NIGERIA

Nigeria's naira could lose ground due to rising foreign-currency demand,
despite the country raising $900 million from a domestic dollar bond sale.

The naira was quoted at 1,650 to the dollar on the official market on
Thursday, LSEG data showed, the same rate at which the currency was changing
hands in street trading.

That compares with a closing rate of around 1,592 naira a week earlier.

"The dollar raise in itself does not translate to an appreciation, until the
central bank puts out those dollars to the market," one trader said, adding:
"Demand is overpowering supply".

The trader said if the central bank increases the size of its interventions
on the currency market that could support the naira, but its interventions
had been too small.

GHANA

Ghana's cedi is seen trading relatively stable on the back of weak
foreign-currency demand and continued central bank support.

LSEG data showed the cedi trading at 15.65 to the dollar versus 15.62 a week
ago.

"The cedi traded relatively stable against the dollar in the past week, with
very little interbank activity. Corporate demand has also decreased in the
last few sessions," said Sedem Dornoo, a senior trader at Absa Bank Ghana.

"We expect the pair to remain relatively stable in the coming week," he
added.

Another trader said the central bank's interventions could anchor the pair
in the short term.

UGANDA

Uganda's shilling is seen trading in a tight range in the coming days,
underpinned by subdued demand for dollars as most firms reserve their local
currency for mid-month tax payments.

Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,715/3,725 to the dollar, compared
to last Thursday's close of 3,716/3,726.

"Mid-month tax payments are around the corner, I anticipate some support for
the local unit from that," one trader said.

He said the local unit was likely to oscillate in the 3,700-3,730 range
against the dollar in the next week.

ZAMBIA

Zambia's kwacha is likely to hold steady, supported by companies selling
dollars as they prepare to pay taxes.

On Thursday the kwacha was quoted at 26.25 per dollar from 26.30 a week ago.

"We have VAT (Value Added Tax) payments due mid-next week and this should
support the local unit," one financial analyst said.

South Africa

South African rand stable before mining data and inflation survey

(Reuters) - The South African rand was little changed in early trade on
Thursday ahead of the release of local mining output figures and an
inflation expectations survey.

At 0600 GMT the rand traded at 17.8925 against the dollar, not far from its
previous close of 17.9050.

The rand has mainly tracked global markets this week, including closely
watched U.S. inflation data and its implications for next week's Federal
Reserve meeting, but that could change on Thursday.

South Africa's Bureau for Economic Research will release its third-quarter
inflation expectations survey around 0800 GMT, showing how analysts,
business people and trade union officials expect inflation to develop over
the next three years.

Inflation expectations are an important data point for the central bank when
it takes interest rate decisions. Its next decision is due to be announced
on Sept. 19, with economists widely predicting the first rate cut in more
than four years.

Statistics South Africa will publish July mining production numbers at about
0930 GMT.

Analysts polled by Reuters predict output will return to year-on-year growth
after a decline in June, reflecting volatile conditions in Africa's most
industrialised economy.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was relatively flat, with the
yield at 8.995%.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Goldman Sachs : U.S. dollar to remain king despite slower economic outlook

Goldman Sachs's Kamakshya Trivedi says there is no "viable challenger" to
the U.S. dollar strength, and adds that he is cautious on the Japanese yen.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Gold rallies to record high on US rate-cut optimism

Gold prices soared to an all-time high on Friday as the dollar weakened amid
prospects of a U.S. interest rate cut next week, while palladium has gained
15% so far this week.

Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,565 per ounce, as of 0258 GMT, after hitting a
record high of $2,567.93 earlier in the session. Bullion has gained 2.7% for
the week so far.

U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $2,593.40.

The dollar fell to a one-week low, making gold less expensive for other
currency holders.

"Gold has been building house following its latest foray higher. Gains have
been steady in nature, and a period of consolidation wouldn't be surprising
before gold perhaps takes a run at $2,600 should the dollar remain on the
backfoot," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

"Regardless of the size of the initial Fed rate cut, we look to be on the
verge of a potentially long and frequent easing cycle, which is a scenario
that bodes well for assets such as gold which are non-yielding."

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday it was appropriate for the
Fed to begin a long-awaited monetary easing cycle at its meeting next week
as upside risks to inflation have subsided.

Traders see a 43% chance for a 50-basis-point reduction on Sept. 18 meet and
57% odds for a 25 bp cut.

Investors will scan the U.S. consumer sentiment (preliminary) data due later
in the day for further clues on rate outlook.

Spot silver edged 0.1% higher to $29.93 per ounce and platinum gained about
1% to $986.60. Both the metals are headed for a weekly gain.

Palladium climbed 0.16% to $1,048.06 and was headed for the best week since
Dec. 11, 2023, fuelled by export curb concerns.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Moscow should
consider limiting exports of uranium, titanium and nickel in retaliation
against the West.

INVESTORS DIARY 2024

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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