Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 18 September 2024

Thu Sep 19 08:56:58 CAT 2024

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 18 September 2024

ZSE commentary 

Gains in selected heavies lift the market...

The ZSE continued to soar in Thursday's session as gains in selected heavies
lifted the market. The mainstream All Share Index added 2.48% to close at
236.20pts while, the Blue-Chip Index put on 2.27% to 256.80pts. The
Agriculture Index was 3.80% firmer at 191.75pts while, the Mid Cap Index
went up 1.36% to 171.40pts. BAT and SeedCo led the risers of the day for the
second consecutive session after gaining an identical 15.00% to close at
$56.8675 and $4.7270 apiece. First Mutual Holdings charged 14.98% to $2.5520
as Zimre Holdings Limited surged 14.80% to $0.3220. Banking group CBZ held
the fifth position of the risers' table after a 14.04% growth to $14.0977.
Ecocash dropped 14.98% to end pegged at $0.5520 while, Meikles declined
14.76% to $4.8500 . Milk processor Dairibord dipped 2.21% to settle at
$2.6500. Turnall retreated 1.32% to

$0.0690 as beverages giant Delta slipped 1.05% to $17.6956, having traded an
intraday low of $17.5000.

Volumes traded ballooned 3190.24% to 192.69m shares while, turnover garnered
337.05%to $111.69m. Ecocash was the top volume and value driver claiming
98.92% of the former and 94.20% of the latter after 190,604,027 shares
exchanged hands in the  name. The  Datvest  MCS ticked  up 0.41% to $0.0296
while, the Old Mutual ETF eased 0.30% to $0.1391. The Morgan and Co MCS was
stable at $0.6500 as 2,252 units traded. Cumulatively, 7.07m units worth
$6.73m exchanged hands in the two REITS. The Tigere REIT edged up 5.61% to
$0.9505 while, the Revitus Property put on 0.02% to $0.8529-efesecrities

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Kenya

Kenya's shilling eases versus dollar - LSEG data

(Reuters) - The Kenyan shilling fell against the dollar on Wednesday, data
from the London Stock Exchange Group showed.

At 0747 GMT, the shilling traded at 129.05/125.25, compared with Tuesday's
closing rate of 128.50/129.50.

South Africa

Rand firms to 14-mth high ahead of expected US rate cut

(Reuters) - The South African rand firmed to a near 14-month high on
Wednesday ahead of an expected U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut and
after the local inflation rate fell more than expected.

At 1511 GMT, the rand traded at 17.5525 against the dollar , 0.27% firmer
than its previous close. It earlier hit 17.53 per dollar, its strongest
level since July 2023.

Markets are certain the Fed will cut rates when it makes its policy
announcement on Wednesday and bets are on a 50-basis-point (bp) interest
rate cut in the world's biggest economy.

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South Africa's inflation fell to its lowest since April 2021, reinforcing
expectations that the local central bank will also cut interest rates on
Thursday.

Annual inflation in August (ZACPIY=ECI), opens new tab stood at 4.4%, just
below the 4.5% forecast by analysts polled by Reuters. The South African
Reserve Bank (SARB) prefers inflation at the midpoint of its 3% to 6% target
range.

"We believe that the lower inflation trajectory and the start of the cutting
cycle in major economies will also prompt the SARB to begin cutting interest
rates tomorrow," Nedbank economists said in a research note.

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Like other risk-sensitive currencies, the rand often takes cues from global
drivers like U.S. monetary policy in addition to domestic data points.

Economists polled by Reuters predict a 25 bp cut to the central bank's main
interest rate.

On the stock market, the Top-40 (.JTOPI), opens new tab index closed 0.44%
lower.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was slightly stronger, with
the yield down 1 basis point to 8.845%.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Global Markets

Dollar claws back losses after Fed goes big on rate cut

(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose broadly on Thursday, reversing a brief
tumble in the immediate aftermath of the Federal Reserve's outsized interest
rate cut that had been largely priced in by markets.

The U.S. central bank on Wednesday kicked off its monetary easing cycle with
a larger-than-usual half-percentage-point reduction that Chair Jerome Powell
said was meant to show policymakers' commitment to sustaining a low
unemployment rate now that inflation has eased.

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While the size of the move had been anticipated by investors in part due to
a slew of media reports pointing in that direction ahead of the decision, it
defied the expectations of economists polled by Reuters, who were leaning
toward a 25-basis-point cut.

Still, markets reacted in a typical "buy the rumour, sell the fact" fashion
that kept the dollar on the front foot in Asian trade, as it recouped losses
made against its peers in the run up to the Fed meeting.

Against the yen , the greenback gained as much as 1.2% to hit an intraday
high of 143.95 earlier in the session. It last traded 0.62% higher at 143.15
yen.

"There was a sharp squeeze in short dollar/yen positions as markets took
profit post-Fed," said Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC.

The Swiss franc fell about 0.3% to 0.8487 per dollar, while the euro dipped
0.01% to $1.1117, away from a three-week high hit in the previous session.

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six
peers, rose marginally to 101.03, having slid to an over one-year low of
100.21 in the previous session.

"Obviously, (there was) a lot of volatility on the announcement, but in
terms of the pricing action and the information that came out ... it's not
really that controversial in a sense," said Rodrigo Catril, senior FX
strategist at National Australia Bank (NAB).

"It's sort of been pretty close to what the market has been pricing,
particularly in terms of expectations of - arguably a little bit more than a
100 - but 100 bps of rate cuts this time around and another 100 next year,
and also a terminal rate that is below 3% as well. So the big picture ... is
not materially different."

Fed policymakers on Wednesday projected the benchmark interest rate would
fall by another half of a percentage point by the end of this year, a full
percentage point next year and half of a percentage point in 2026, though
they said the outlook that far into the future is necessarily uncertain.

A scatter chart titled "The Fed's dot plot." Interest rate projections by
officials at the Federal Open Market Committee

A scatter chart titled "The Fed's dot plot." Interest rate projections by
officials at the Federal Open Market Committee

"Our view is that the dollar will depreciate next year. That is a cyclical
story, not a structural story," said Eric Robertsen, Standard Chartered's
global head of research and chief strategist at a media roundtable in
Singapore on Wednesday.

"We think the dollar is going to weaken because the Fed is easing interest
rates and the global economy will experience a soft landing, which tends to
be a benign scenario that tends to be negative for the dollar."

Sterling fell 0.04% to $1.3208 after scaling a peak of $1.3298 in the
previous session, its strongest level since March 2022.

That came in the wake of data on Wednesday which showed British inflation
held steady in August but sped up in the services sector closely watched by
the Bank of England, reinforcing bets that the central bank will keep
interest rates on hold later in the day.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Gold Gold holds firm after Fed's bumper rate cut

(Reuters) - Gold prices rose on Thursday after hitting a record high in the
previous session, as the U.S. Federal Reserve delivered a super-sized
interest rate cut.

Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,571.40 per ounce, as of 0543 GMT after scaling a
record high of $2,599.92 on Wednesday.

U.S. gold futures edged 0.1% down to $2,595.90.

A line chart titled "Spot gold price in USD per oz" that tracks the metric
over time.

The Fed kicked off with a larger-than-usual 50-basis-point reduction on
Wednesday that Chair Jerome Powell said was meant to show policymakers'
commitment to sustaining a low unemployment rate now that inflation has
eased.

Powell, however, said the economy remained strong, with many job market
indicators including unemployment claims and even the current 4.2%
unemployment rate not being at worrying levels.

"Gold prices are idling near yesterday's closing price as markets digest the
seesaw volatility in the wake of the Fed rate decision," said Ilya Spivak,
head of global macro, Tastylive.

Zero-yield bullion tends to be a preferred investment in a lower interest
rate environment and during geopolitical turmoil.

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Traders are currently anticipating a nearly 66% chance of a 25 bp reduction
at Fed's November meet and a 34% chance of a 50-bp cut, according to the CME
FedWatch tool, opens new tab.

"Gold is likely to reach new highs between $2,640 and $2,700 this year.
Softening economic data could be catalysts for higher gold prices," said
Kelvin Wong, OANDA's senior market analyst for Asia Pacific.

Market will also keep a tab on the initial U.S. jobless claims data, which
is due at 1230 GMT.

On the geopolitical front, Hezbollah devices exploded again in Lebanon on
Wednesday, stoking tensions of wider a Middle-East conflict, a day after
similar explosions of the group's pagers.

Among other metals, spot silver rose about 2% to $30.67 per ounce, platinum
climbed 1.2% to $980.40 and palladium gained 0.48% to $1,067.00.

INVESTORS DIARY 2024

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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