Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 26 August 2025

Wed Aug 27 09:08:57 CAT 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 26 August  2025

ZSE commentary

ZSE closes near flat; Invictus in trading halt ahead of key announcement

HARARE –  Invictus Energy Ltd has requested a trading halt of its securities on the ASX pending an announcement related to a forthcoming capital raising and strategic alliance. This action is intended to facilitate compliance with disclosure obligations and promote an orderly market. Trading is anticipated to resume by 28 August 2025 or upon the release of the relevant announcement.

Unconfirmed reports suggest that the strategic alliance may involve a Qatar-based investment entity currently present in the country. Invictus maintains a substantial asset portfolio within the Cabora Bassa Basin in Zimbabwe, including the recently identified Mukuyu gas discovery and multiple Basin Margin prospects.

On the ASX, the company’s stock is predominantly exhibiting sell signals from leading research firms, with a current market capitalization of approximately A$82.58 million (US$53.5 million). On the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange, its rarely traded depository receipts (ZDRs) sit on a market cap of roughly US$18.56 million.

Meanwhile, ahead of the peak of the June earnings season and without strong momentum from investors, the VFEX shed 0.78% to 123.45 in a low turnover session weighed down by losses in Innscor, Simbisa and First Capital. Turnover was at US$221 538 from the sale of 637 758 shares.

Simbisa was the worst performer with a 2.3% loss to 36.90 US cents and Innscor shed 2.21% to 58.92 US cents. Both companies are due to report June full year results. First Capital dropped 1.37% to 5.03 US cents in the wake of its June interims where the bank reported improved profitability of US$13.27 million from US$11.51 million last year. The bank declared a dividend of US$0.307 cents per share for the interim period.

There were gains in Seed Co International, which put on 1.8% to 24.95 US cents while fractional gains were recorded in Padenga and Axia.

Elsewhere, Zimbabwe Stock Exchange shares were near flat, with performance supported by mid-tier gains. The All-Share Index put on 0.11% to 205.97. Turnover was at ZWG15.7 million after the trade of 2.66 million shares. Econet experienced a slowdown in trading volumes following recent large movements by the major shareholder, yet it remained the leading contributor with 677,300 shares, while Delta topped the value chart with ZWG8.2 million.

The Top Ten Index was down 0.48% to 202.76. NMB, a stock of interest, was the worst performer of the day with a 9.75% loss to 361c and FBC Holdings dropped 1.56% to 767.84c taking its market cap to ZWG5.16 billion.

The Mid-Cap Index was strong after gaining 2.57% to 237.52. Turnall led the risers with a 79.22% gain to 11c and Dairibord Holdings was 15% higher to 166.75c.

Risers         Price (ZWGc)         Price Change (ZWG)        Change %   Year-to-Date (YTD) %

Turnall        11.00 +4.86c        +79.22        +83.33

Dairibord    166.75        +21.75c      +15.00        -25.56

Seed Co      379.42        +9.42c        +2.55 +46.04

TN Cyber    12.00 +0.09c        +0.74 -59.93

Hippo 569.25        +1.34c        +0.24 -27.11

Fallers        Price (ZWGc)         Price Change (ZWG)        Change %   Year-to-Date (YTD) %

NMBZ         361.00        -39.00c       -9.75%        +9.39%

ZSE   199.95        -7.55c -3.64%        -42.71%

FBC   767.84        -12.16c       -1.56%        -29.23%

ZB     300.00        -1.00c -0.33%        -53.82%

Meikles       350.00        -1.00c -0.28%        -0.06%

-fx

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

South Africa

South African rand weakens after leading indicator data

(Reuters) - The South African rand softened on Tuesday after the release of a local leading business cycle indicator.

At 1501 GMT the rand traded at 17.6575 against the dollar , about 0.3% weaker than Monday's close.

South Africa's composite leading business cycle indicator rose 0.4% month on month in June, central bank data showed on Tuesday.

The indicator collects data on vehicle sales, business confidence, money supply and other factors and helps investors gauge the outlook for Africa's most industrialised economy.

Domestic releases due later in the week include producer inflation (ZAPPIY=ECI), opens new tab numbers on Thursday, money supply (ZAM3=ECI), opens new tab and private sector credit (ZACRED=ECI), opens new tab data, and trade balance (ZATBAL=ECI), opens new tab and budget balance (ZABUD=ECI), opens new tab figures on Friday.

The Johannesburg Stock Exchange's Top-40 (.JTOPI), opens new tab index was last down about 0.3%.

South Africa's benchmark 2035 government bond was weaker, as the yield rose 1.5 basis points to 9.59%.

Nigeria

Naira Declines Against U.S Dollar as FX Demand Spikes

The Nigerian local currency, the naira, diverged across the foreign currency markets amidst rising demand for the US dollar by eligible corporate FX users seeking foreign payments. 

FX data released by investment banking firms revealed that the local currency gained N3 per dollar at the parallel window to close at N1,547 on Tuesday, while also declining by 6 bps at the Nigeria Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) window to print at N1,537.75/$ from N1536.42 per dollar.

The interbank NFEM saw increased FX demand against limited supply, AIICO Capital Limited said, noting that the naira was trading between ₦1,537/$ and ₦1,539/$ at the official window. The latest update from the official window showed total foreign exchange inflows slipped, causing the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to conduct FX intervention, selling $50 million to banks last week.

MarketForces Africa reported that Nigeria’s gross reserves reached $41.19 billion as of 25 August 2025, rising $85.58 million from the prior day. With the growing foreign reserves, analysts said the naira should remain stable amid growing external reserves.

Oil prices slid 2% on Tuesday, wiping out the previous day’s gains, as traders monitored U.S. tariff developments, the Ukraine conflict, and risks to Russian fuel supplies. Brent crude fell $1.58, or 2.3%, to $67.22 per barrel after briefly touching its highest level since early August. U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped $1.55, or 2.4%, to $63.25.

Meanwhile, gold climbed to a more than two-week high, buoyed by safe-haven demand after President Trump dismissed a Federal Reserve governor, raising doubts about central bank stability.

Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,382.19, while December U.S. gold futures also gained 0.5% to $3,433. Outlook: Investors are likely to stay hesitant in taking strong directional positions in the oil market due to prolonged uncertainty from the Ukraine conflict and ongoing tariff tensions.#Naira Declines Against U.S Dollar as FX Demand Spikes Nigerian Bonds Face Sell Pressures, Yield Climbs by 12bps

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Dollar makes feeble recovery as worries about Fed independence linger

(Reuters) - The dollar staged a shaky recovery on Wednesday, with gains capped by renewed investor worries about the Federal Reserve's independence following U.S. President Donald Trump's latest attempt to extend his power over the central bank.

Trump had on Monday said he would fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged improprieties in obtaining mortgage loans, though Cook's lawyer later said she would file a lawsuit to prevent her ouster, kicking off what could be a protracted legal fight.

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The dollar initially weakened on the developments though later regained some ground on Wednesday, rising 0.33% against the yen to 147.93 and leaving the euro trading 0.24% lower at $1.1614.

Sterling fell 0.23% to $1.3448, while the dollar index rose 0.2% to 98.47.

Still, gains in the greenback were limited as Trump's push to gain more influence over U.S. institutions and the path of monetary policy further eroded investors' trust in the dollar's dominance.

"It's the latest salvo in the Fed wars and shows how increasingly politicised the central bank is becoming," said Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo, referring to Trump's attempt to fire Cook.

"It's going to be virtually impossible for the next chair to do anything other than Trump's bidding. This should be negative for the dollar. The question for markets right now is about the September meeting but be in no doubt that we are witnessing a regime shift like we have not seen in decades."

Also weighing on the dollar were expectations of faster and deeper U.S. rate cuts, particularly if Cook - should she be removed from her position - gets replaced by someone dovish.

Trump has repeatedly called for the Fed to lower interest rates and has threatened to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, although he recently backed down from that.

Cook's departure would allow Trump to pick a majority of the Fed's seven-member board, including two incumbents and the pending nomination of White House economist Stephen Miran.

"Trump has essentially usurped the Fed's forward guidance function for the time being and telling markets lower rates are coming, which is being manifest in a steeper yield curve," said Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group.

The two-year U.S. Treasury yield , which typically reflects near-term rate expectations, bottomed at 3.6540% on Wednesday, its lowest since May 1, as traders ramped up bets of imminent Fed cuts.

Yields on the longer end of the curve have meanwhile risen on concerns that forced easing of monetary conditions in the near term will lead to a resurgence in inflation.

The 30-year yield was last a touch higher at 4.9223%.

In other currencies, the Australian dollar was last down 0.16% at $0.6484, while the New Zealand dollar eased 0.27% to $0.5845.

The Aussie got a brief lift earlier in the session after domestic data showed consumer prices jumped far more than forecast in July, while core inflation also rose in a blow to hopes of a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia as soon as next month.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities

Gold slips as dollar firms, but Fed turmoil limits losses

(Reuters) - Gold slipped on Wednesday, pressured by an uptick in the dollar, although renewed concerns over the U.S. central bank's independence after President Donald Trump's threat to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook lent support to bullion.

Spot gold was down 0.5% at $3,375.06 per ounce, as of 0508 GMT, after hitting its highest level since August 11 on Tuesday.

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U.S. gold futures for December delivery eased 0.2% to $3,425.30.

The dollar index (.DXY), opens new tab rose about 0.3% against its rivals, making gold less attractive for other currency holders.

"Short-term speculators are taking a bit of profit right now. However, gold is still being supported especially as we start to see a much more clear dovish stance from the Federal Reserve," OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong said.

"We could see in the near term there is still potential upward pressure to test $3,400, above it will be the $3,435 level."

Trump said he was removing Cook over alleged improprieties in obtaining mortgage loans, a step that could test the boundaries of presidential power over the U.S. Fed.

In response, Cook said Trump has no authority to fire her from the central bank, and she will not resign.

Trump has been pushing the U.S. central bank to cut rates and has repeatedly criticised Fed Chair Jerome Powell for acting too slow.

Focus now shifts to the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, due on Friday for more cues on interest rate path after dovish remarks from Powell at Jackson Hole symposium last week.

Markets are now pricing in an 87% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed's September 17 policy meeting, according to CME FedWatch Tool.

Non-yielding gold typically performs well in a low-interest-rate environment.

Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.4% to $38.42 per ounce, platinum was flat at $1,348.20 and palladium climbed 0.5% to $1,098.96.

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

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