Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 28 August 2025

Fri Aug 29 09:21:04 CAT 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 28 August  2025

ZSE commentary

ZSE records gains in the penultimate Tanganda Tea Company Limited 0.9500
5.82 session of the month...

ZSE recorded gains in the penultimate session of the month as the All-Share
Index rose by 1.41% to 209.32pts while, the BlueChip Index edged up 1.54% to
206.91pts. The ZSE Agriculture Index added 3.20% to 177.97pts while, the Mid
Cap Index gained 0.93% to 237.56pts. Dairy producer Dairibord led the
gainers of the day on a 14.73% surge that took it to $2.1454 as sugar
refiner Star Africa followed on a 12.50% jump to end pegged at $0.0450.
Banking group CBZ Holding garnered 10.74% to $8.8600 while, BAT went up
7.84% to end pegged at $91.6667. Banking group FBC Holdings capped the top
five gainers of the day on a 1.27% rise to land at $7.7778. On the

contrary, Tanganda Tea Company was the sole loser of the day having lost
5.82% to finish at $0.9500. The market registered a positive breadth of
twelve as thirteen counters gained against one that faltered.

Activity aggregates faltered in the session as turnover plunged 96.75% to
$7.64m while, volumes traded plummeted 94.48% to 2.91m shares. OKZIM and
Econet claimed a combined 83.82% of the total volumes traded. Delta and
Econet were the top value drivers of the day as they claimed a combined
85.70% of the total value traded. Foreigners were net sellers in the session
as inflows amounted to $560,050.00 while, outflows stood at $1,238,600.00.
The Datvest MCS ETF was stable at $0.0300 as 1,200 units were traded while,
the Tigere REIT traded 49,846 units at an unchanged price of $1.1500.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

South Africa

South Ghana's cedi and Zambia's kwacha seen under pressure

(Reuters) - Ghana's and Zambia's currencies are expected to remain under
pressure in the next week to Thursday, while Uganda's could strengthen and
those of Kenya and Nigeria should be broadly steady, traders said.

GHANA

Ghana's cedi is expected to extend its recent losses next week on the back
of persistent corporate demand for foreign currency as supply from the
central bank remained insufficient to meet requests at its competitive
auctions.

LSEG data showed the cedi trading at 11.15 to the dollar on Thursday
compared to 10.95 at last Thursday's close.

"We expect the cedi to remain on the back foot against the dollar in the
coming week, as a backlog of corporate FX demand remains unfilled," one
trader said.

At the central bank's auction on Wednesday, bids exceeded $244 million
compared with just $100 million sold, the trader added.

ZAMBIA

Zambia's kwacha is likely to remain under pressure against the dollar next
week due to high corporate demand for hard currency, which continues to
outweigh supply.

On Thursday, the kwacha was quoted at 23.68 per dollar from 23.53 a week
ago.

"In the absence of healthy inflows, demand for dollars will remain higher
than supply, putting pressure on the kwacha," a foreign exchange trader
said.

UGANDA

Uganda's shilling is seen firming in the days ahead, helped by offshore
investor inflows of dollars and month-end flows from remittances and
commodity exporters, traders said.

Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,549/3,559 to the dollar, compared
to last Thursday's close of 3,560/3,570.

A trader at one commercial bank said the market was anticipating significant
inflows of foreign exchange from offshore investors who will participate in
a planned Treasury bond auction.

"The flows from that source will provide quite a significant boost to the
local unit," he said, adding that some inflows are also expected from
typical month-end flows from remittances and commodity exporters.

The central Bank of Uganda is due to auction 990 billion Ugandan shillings
($278.25 million) worth of Treasury bonds of various tenures on September 3.

KENYA

Kenya's shilling is expected to trade flat in the coming days with inflows
from diaspora workers matching demand from merchandise importers, traders
said.

At 0957 GMT commercial banks quoted the shilling 129.00/129.40, unchanged
from last Thursday.

A trader at one commercial bank said the shilling was expected to benefit
from typical end-month remittances from Kenyans working abroad but that
would be matched by existing demand.

NIGERIA

Nigeria's naira is expected to trade within a range next week, supported by
dollar sales by the central bank and foreign portfolio investors, amid
rising demand from importers.

The naira opened at around 1,535 to the dollar on Thursday, compared with
last week's closing quote of 1,533 naira.

The currency was changing hands around 1,545 to the dollar in street trading
on Thursday.

"All through the week it has traded at 1,535/1,538 levels. All things being
equal, I expect it to trade at those levels next week," one trader said.

"The central bank intervenes from time to time whenever the market tilts
toward 1,540 levels."

($1 = 3,558.0000 Ugandan shillings)

South Africa

South African rand muted before US inflation report, local data releases

(Reuters) - The South African rand was subdued in early trade on Friday, as
markets awaited a key U.S. inflation report and the release of some domestic
economic indicators which could offer clues on the health of Africa's most
industrialised economy.

At 0529 GMT the rand traded at 17.7225 against the dollar , about 0.2%
weaker than Thursday's close.

Sign up here.

The dollar last traded flat against a basket of currencies as cautious
traders priced in a September U.S. interest rate cut, while worries about
the threats to the Federal Reserve's independence linger.

Investors will keep a keen eye on the Personal Consumption Expenditures
Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, due later in the day,
for further cues on the central bank's interest rate trajectory.

South African data releases on Friday include money supply (ZAM3=ECI), opens
new tab and private sector credit (ZACRED=ECI), opens new tab data, as well
as trade balance (ZATBAL=ECI), opens new tab and budget balance (ZABUD=ECI),
opens new tab.

South Africa's benchmark 2035 government bond was slightly firmer in early
deals, with the yield falling one basis point to 9.595%.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Dollar set for monthly drop on growing US rate cut wagers

(Reuters) - The dollar wobbled on Friday, poised for a 2% drop in August
against major currencies on rising odds of the Federal Reserve cutting
interest rates next month while worries about the threats to the U.S.
central bank's independence linger.

President Donald Trump's campaign to exert more influence over monetary
policy, including attempts to fire Lisa Cook, one of the Fed's governors,
has weighed on the dollar. Cook filed a lawsuit claiming Trump has no power
to remove her from office.

The legal battle is the latest chapter in Trump's attempts to reshape the
central bank after repeatedly criticising the Fed and its Chair Jerome
Powell for not cutting interest rates.

"If markets perceive the FOMC's independence as compromised, inflation
expectations could become unanchored, driving long-term interest rates
higher," said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of
Australia.

Currency markets were tentative on Friday, with the euro easing a bit to
$1.16625, but on course for a 2% gain in August. Sterling last bought
$1.3509 and the Japanese yen fetched 147.01 per dollar.

The Australian dollar was steady at $0.6533, set for a 1.6% gain in the
month, while China's yuan hit its strongest level in 10 months against the
dollar as steady central bank fixings and a hot domestic stock market drive
the currency higher.

The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six major peers,
was at 97.917, on course for a 2% decline for the month. The index is down
nearly 10% this year as erratic U.S. trade policies drove investors towards
alternative assets.

Trump's push to place hand-picked, dovish-leaning candidates on the central
bank's decision-making committee has pressured short-term yields lower,
while longer-term yields have risen.

"While President Trump may be able to lower the Fed Funds rate by
influencing the makeup of the interest rate setting committee, longer-term
interest rates may not respond in kind," said CBA's Kong.

A politically influenced Fed that keeps interest rates lower than it
otherwise might could result in higher inflation and reduce foreign demand
for the debt due to credibility fears, while a worsening fiscal outlook is
also expected to weigh on longer-dated bonds.

The yield curve differential between two-year and 10-year notes was last at
57 basis points, after hitting the steepest level since April earlier in the
week.

Still, market reaction to the battle between Trump and the Fed's Cook has
been relatively muted, with slight dollar selling and curve steepening.

"The market is looking through the amplified theatre and noise with regard
to the robust opinions circulating regarding the independence of the US
Fed," said George Boubouras, head of research at K2 Asset Management.

"The market is not complacent about these developments, it is simply being
pragmatic."

RATE CUT WAGERS

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he wants to start cutting
rates next month and "fully expects" more rate cuts to follow to bring the
central bank's policy rate closer to a neutral setting.

Markets are currently pricing in an 86% chance of a rate cut in September,
up from 63% a month earlier, CME FedWatch showed. Traders are wagering on
more than 100 basis points of easing by June next year.

Data on Thursday showed the U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought
in the second quarter, but tariffs on imports continued to cloud the
picture.

Investors will parse through the PCE price index report, the Fed's preferred
inflation measure, later on Friday. On a year-over-year basis, headline PCE
inflation is estimated at 2.6%, after rising at the same rate in June.

While a reading of 3% or higher will raise eyebrows after the Fed's dovish
pivot, the key data remains next Friday's labour market report ahead of the
September FOMC meeting, said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities

Gold slips Gold retreats from a five-week high on profit-taking, stronger US
Dollar

Profit-taking and a firmer US Dollar undermine the Gold price, but rising
Fed rate cut expectations might limit its losses. 

Traders will closely monitor the US July PCE inflation report later on
Friday. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower during the Asian trading hours on
Friday. The yellow metal retreats from near a five-week high of $3425 in the
previous session amid some profit-taking. Additionally, the upbeat US
economic data, including the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and weekly
Initial Jobless Claims data, provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) and
weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price. 

Nonetheless, rising bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest
rates in the September meeting and dovish remarks from New York Fed chief
John Williams might underpin the precious metal. Lower interest rates could
reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold. 

The release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
report for July will take center stage later on Friday. The headline PCE is
projected to show an increase of 2.6% YoY in July, while the core PCE is
estimated to show a rise of 2.9% during the same period.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold drops ahead of key US PCE inflation data

The US GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.3% in Q2, compared to the initial
estimate of 3.0%, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed Thursday.
This figure came in better than the estimation of 3.1%.

The US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 23 declined to 229K
versus 234K prior (revised from 235K). This reading came in below the market
consensus of 230K.

New York Fed President John Williams said on Wednesday that it is likely
interest rates can fall at some point, but policymakers will need to see
what upcoming data indicate about the economy to decide if it is appropriate
to make a cut next month. 

Traders are currently pricing in nearly an 85% possibility of a
quarter-point Fed rate cut next month, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Gold's constructive outlook prevails above the 100-day EMA.

The Gold price trades in negative territory on the day. The bullish tone of
the precious metal remains intact in the longer term, with the price holding
above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart.
The upward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index
(RSI), which stands above the midline near 60.50. This displays the bullish
momentum in the near term. 

The upper boundary of the Bollinger Band of $3,425 acts as an immediate
resistance level for XAU/USD. Sustained trading above this level could take
the yellow metal to $3,439, the high of July 23. The next upside target to
watch is $3,500, the psychological level and the high of April 22. 

On the downside, the initial support level for Gold is seen at $3,373, the
low of August 27. Red candlesticks closing below the mentioned level could
expose $3,351, the low of August 26. The additional downside filter is
located at $3,310, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band.

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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