Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 19 February 2025

Thu Feb 20 09:13:19 CAT 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 19 February 2025

ZSE commentary 

ZSE record gains in penultimate session of the week ...

The ZSE market recorded gains in the penultimate session of the week as the
primary All Share Index rose 0.23% to 189.74pts while, the Blue-Chip Index
gained 0.32% to 186.29pts. The Agriculture Index lost 0.31% to 154.83pts as
the Mid Cap Index fell 0.02% to 222.39pts. Retailer Ok Zimbabwe headlined
the top performers of the day on a 7.46% jump  to  $0.3278,  followed  by
RTG  that  surged  7.44% to $0.6500 . Telecoms giant Econet went up 0.85% to
$2.7687 while, Delta charged 0.45% to close at $13 .0594. Star Africa capped
the gainers of the day on a 0.02% uplift to end the day pegged at $0.0281.
General Beltings topped the worst performers of the day on a 14.59% retreat
to $0.0600 followed by Ecocash that slipped 12.00% to $0.1739. Ariston
dropped 8.33% to settle at $0.0550 as milk processor Dairibord eased 2.15%
to close at $1.4379. Nampak completed the top five laggards of the day on a
1.59% slide to settle at $0.5110.

Activity aggregates declined in the session as volumes traded fell 82.87% to
839,900 shares while, turnover shed 79.49% to $3.27m . Top volume drivers of
the day were Tanganda (43.63%), Delta (19.12%) and Econet (12.05%). Delta,
Tanganda and Econet were the top value drivers of the day after contributing
64 .07%, 17.13% and 8.56% respectively. Cass Saddle ETF ticked up 12.50% to
end the day pegged at $0.0900. Tigere REIT parred off 0.10% to close at
$1.1474 as a total 6,905 units exchanged hands ih the name.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

South Africa

South African rand steady ahead of national budget

(Reuters) - South Africa's rand was little changed early on Wednesday, ahead
of the 2025 national budget speech to be delivered by the finance minister.

At 0712 GMT, the rand traded at 18.4050 against the dollar, near its
previous close.

Investors are keenly awaiting the budget speech at 1200 GMT by South
Africa's Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana for clues on the coalition
government's fiscal priorities, its roadmap to tackle debt and economic
reforms.

"A well-received budget could push USD-ZAR below 18.3000," said Andre
Cilliers, currency strategist at TreasuryONE.

However, he said the local currency could come under pressure over lack of
reforms and concerns over spending discipline and taxation.

On the stock market, the Top-40 index was flat.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was weaker in early trading,
with the yield up 3 basis points to 9.155%.

Nigeria

Naira gains as dollar sold for N1,535 in black market

The naira appreciated to N1,535 per dollar in the parallel market, commonly
referred to as the black market, driven by reduced demand for the dollar
amid improved liquidity conditions.

This marks a gain of N25, or 1.6%, compared to the N1,560 per dollar
exchange rate recorded on Monday in the same market. Data compiled from
online trading platforms and street traders confirmed the development.
"There is not much demand in the market, but we have enough dollars," a
trader noted.

In the official foreign exchange (FX) market, the naira also strengthened
against the dollar on Tuesday, according to figures published by the Central
Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on its website.

After trading activities concluded for the day, the dollar was quoted at
N1,510 per dollar, reflecting an improvement from the N1,512 per dollar rate
reported on the previous trading day at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market
(NFEM), as indicated by CBN data.

Authorised dealers quoted the highest exchange rate at N1,515 per dollar on
Tuesday, maintaining the same level as Monday's rate. The market recorded
its lowest exchange rate at N1,504 per dollar over two consecutive trading
sessions.

Olayemi Cardoso, governor of the CBN, noted the ongoing reforms in the
financial markets aimed at addressing distortions that had previously caused
a significant disparity between official and parallel market exchange rates,
at times reaching as high as 60%. He pointed out that with consistent policy
measures, enhanced market confidence, and increased transparency in forex
trading, the disparity has significantly reduced to approximately 4 to 5%.

Cardoso made these remarks while advocating for stronger economic ties
between Nigeria, the Middle East, and the Nigerian diaspora in the region.
He pointed out the potential benefits of such partnerships in boosting
remittance flows into the country, which could further stabilise the foreign
exchange market.

He noted key measures introduced by the CBN to enhance transparency and
efficiency in the forex market. These include the adoption of an electronic
matching system to improve trade visibility and the implementation of a
foreign exchange code of ethics, which all Nigerian banks have signed to
ensure compliance with market rules.

As a result of these strategic interventions, Cardoso disclosed that
Nigeria's foreign reserves have now exceeded $40 billion, marking the
highest level in nearly three years.

However, the Nigerian foreign currency reserves have declined to $38.88
billion as of February 17, 2025, according to the data from the CBN website.

He acknowledged that Nigeria had previously faced severe economic
challenges, including capital flight, multiple exchange rate regimes,
currency depreciation, high inflation, and a backlog of unresolved foreign
exchange transactions. These issues had collectively undermined confidence
in the nation's currency.

Upon assuming office, Cardoso stated that his administration prioritised
restoring market confidence by addressing the backlog of foreign exchange
transactions while reinforcing the government's commitment to ensuring
economic stability.-bda

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

US dollar, yen rise as risk appetite fades on tariff rhetoric, Russia talks

(Reuters) - Safe-haven currencies led by the U.S. dollar and yen gained on
Wednesday, as market jitters escalated amid the latest round of tariff
threats from U.S. President Donald Trump and contentious talks to end the
Russia-Ukraine war.

The U.S. currency slipped further against the yen after minutes of the
latest Federal Reserve policy meeting showed that Trump's initial policy
proposals raised concern about higher inflation. It also affirmed a
continued pause from rate cuts.

The greenback overall rose against currencies that investors buy when risk
appetite is high such as the euro, sterling, the Australian and Canadian
dollars and those in emerging markets like the Mexican peso.

The yen, on the other hand, advanced against most major currencies like the
dollar, euro, Swiss franc, and sterling.

Those gains were fueled by comments from Trump late Tuesday that he intends
to impose auto tariffs "in the neighborhood of 25%" and similar duties on
semiconductors and pharmaceutical imports.

On Friday, Trump said levies on automobiles would come as soon as April 2,
the day after members of his cabinet are due to deliver reports to him
outlining options for a range of import duties.

"So far, the dollar has tracked the path it had during the previous Trump
administration...and we can pretty much agree that Trump is doing exactly
what he said," said Chester Ntonifor, chief FX and global fixed income
strategist, at BCA Research in Montreal, referring to tariffs that represent
one of Trump's major policy mantras since he got into office.

"Overall, short term, the dollar is tracking what Trump is saying."

In afternoon trade, the dollar was down 0.4% against the yen at 151.495 ,
with the euro also dropping 0.6% to 157.925 yen .

The dollar earlier extended losses against the Japanese currency after data
showed U.S. single-family homebuilding fell 8.4% in January to a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of 993,000 units last month, amid disruptions from
snowstorms and freezing temperatures.

The euro, meanwhile, slipped 0.2% versus the dollar to $1.0424 .

The dollar index , essentially a reverse proxy for the euro because the
latter is the largest component of the index, last stood at 107.18, up 0.2%,
after dropping 1.2% last week.

The pound, meanwhile, got a short-lived boost from stronger-than-expected UK
inflation, which rose more than expected, hitting a 10-month high of 3% in
January and is likely to rise further. Sterling hit a two-month peak
overnight but last traded at $1.2585, down 0.2%.

The Trump administration, meanwhile, said on Tuesday it had agreed to hold
more talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine after an initial meeting
that excluded Kyiv, a departure from Washington's previous approach that
rallied U.S. allies to isolate Russian President Vladimir Putin.

On Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Trump traded
barbs. Zelenskiy hit back at Trump's suggestion that Ukraine was responsible
for Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion, saying the U.S. president was trapped
in a Russian disinformation bubble.

Trump, for his part, denounced Zelenskiy as "a dictator without elections"
and said he had better move fast to secure a peace or he would have no
country left.

The euro has reacted most to the headlines on Russia and Ukraine, rallying
last week on a potential resolution to the conflict, and slipping on signs
of tension.

"Should Russia and Ukraine ultimately reach a peace agreement, the dollar
could well come under renewed pressure," wrote Fawad Razaqzada, market
analyst, at City Index and FOREX.com in research note.

Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reduced its benchmark rate by 50
basis points to 3.75% as widely expected and signaled future moves would
likely be smaller. The latter was enough to boost the New Zealand dollar,
which was last up 0.3% at US$0.5721 .

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Gold eases as dollar holds ground, focus on Trump tariffs

(Reuters) - Gold prices slipped after hitting a record high earlier on
Wednesday as the dollar rose, while U.S. President Donald Trump's latest
tariff threats kept investors on edge.

Spot gold lost 0.2% to $2,928.49 per ounce as of 2:19 p.m. ET (19:19 GMT).
Bullion surged to an all-time high of $2,946.85/oz earlier in the session.

U.S. gold futures settled 0.4% lower at $2,936.10.

The dollar index (.DXY), opens new tab rose 0.1% against its rivals, making
gold more expensive for other currency holders.

"We are in a state of unusual-heightened uncertainty... the catalyst is the
tariffs and trade talks or threats that are going on around the world,"
which is supporting the prices, said Paul Wong, market strategist at Sprott
Asset Management.

Trump said on Tuesday that he intends to impose auto tariffs "in the
neighborhood of 25%", along with similar duties on semiconductor and
pharmaceutical imports.

This follows his recent move to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and a
25% tariff on steel and aluminium earlier this month.

Bullion is seen as a safeguard against geopolitical risks and inflation, but
rising interest rates diminish its attractiveness as a non-yielding asset.

Fed officials remain uncertain about the impact tariffs might have on
inflation.

Traders currently see at least one 25-basis-point rate cut and a 44% chance
of an additional lowering by December, according to LSEG data.

After Donald Trump's inauguration, Federal Reserve officials expressed
concern about inflation, as firms were expected to raise prices to offset
import tariffs, policymakers noted at their January meeting.

Following the inauguration of Donald Trump, officials from the Federal
Reserve voiced concerns over potential inflation, as they anticipated firms
raising prices to offset import tariffs, according to notes from their
meeting in January.

Among other metals, spot silver, used in electrical components, shed 0.4% to
$32.74 an ounce, aiming to challenge a 10-year high.

Platinum declined 1.7% to $970.45 and palladium eased 1.6% to $971.47.

"Although the imposition of tariffs could hurt silver's industrial demand,
it could still push higher from a valuation perspective," said Han Tan,
Exinity Group chief market analyst.

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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