Major International Business Headlines Brief ::: 10 Jul 2025

[Bulls n Bears]

 <https://bullszimbabwe.com/> 

 


 

 <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> Bullszimbabwe.com
<mailto:info at bulls.co.zw?subject=View%20and%20Comments> Views & Comments
<https://bullszimbabwe.com/category/blogs/bullish-thoughts/> Bullish
Thoughts        <http://www.twitter.com/BullsBears2010> Twitter
<https://www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe> Facebook
<http://www.linkedin.com/pub/bulls-n-bears-zimbabwe/57/577/72> LinkedIn
<https://chat.whatsapp.com/CF6wllAfScU9Wr6dXxoQnO> WhatsApp
<mailto:bulls at bullszimbabwe.com?subject=Unsubscribe> Unsubscribe

 


 

 


Major International Business Headlines Brief :::  10 Jul  2025 

 


 


 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 


 

 


 

ü  US tariffs on South Africa set to hit white farmers Trump has embraced

ü  Trump sells shift from ‘aid to trade’ in White House meeting with African
leaders

ü  Nigeria secures $747-million Deutsche Bank-led syndicated loan for
coastal highway

ü  South African rand gains ahead of local manufacturing data

ü  Nigerians face new US visa restrictions with three-month limit

ü  Ghana warns of power cuts while Italy’s Eni works to boost gas supply

ü  PrimeXBT Launches ‘Trade as VIP’ Campaign Offering 70% Off Trading Fees
for South African Traders

ü  South Africa’s energy goals depend on grid expansion

ü  GCR Ratings: Corporate debt issuances to grow modestly in 2025

ü  Nigeria's Dangote refinery plans 1.6 mln barrels fuel storage tanks in
Namibia, sources say

ü  The macroeconomic effects of introducing a central bank digital currency

ü  Mining firms lift FTSE 100 to record high after Trump confirms 50% copper
tariff

ü  JPMorgan upgrades Vietnam stocks to overweight

ü  Royal Mail to scrap second-class post on Saturdays

ü  Rupee nudges higher; familiar resistance, support levels tipped to hold

ü  Ukraine to launch Starlink mobile internet in 2026, becoming Europe's
first, Kyivstar says

ü  Asian shares mostly gain after big tech rally on Wall Street

 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 


US tariffs on South Africa set to hit white farmers Trump has embraced

CITRUSDAL, South Africa, July 9 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump’s
threatened 30% tariff on South African exports is set to deal an economic
blow to a community he has vocally and controversially championed: white
farmers.

 

Citing false claims that white South Africans are being persecuted, Trump
has cut aid to the country, publicly berated its president in the Oval
Office and invited Afrikaners – descendants of early European settlers – to
come to the United States as refugees.

 

But for white farmers who remain rooted in their homeland and aspire to keep
making a living from the land, the tariffs due to come into effect on August
1 are an assault on those ambitions.

 

“It doesn’t make sense to us to welcome South African farmers in America and
then the rest that stays behind 
 to punish them,” said Krisjan Mouton, a
sixth-generation farmer in Western Cape province’s citrus heartland.

 

“It’s going to have a huge impact,” he said, standing among rows of trees
heavy with navel oranges on his farm near the town of Citrusdal. “It’s not
profitable to export anymore to the USA.”

 

After a three-month pause, Trump escalated the global trade offensive he
launched in April, announcing tariffs on more than a dozen countries on
Monday, including South Africa.

 

Its citrus fruit, along with wine, soybeans, sugar cane and beef, had
previously benefited from duty-free access to the U.S. under the Africa
Growth and Opportunities Act.

 

Helped by that trade initiative, South Africa, the world’s second-largest
citrus exporter after Spain, generates $100 million annually from the U.S.
market.

 

The new tariff ends that preferential treatment. And with three-quarters of
South Africa’s freehold land white-owned, white farmers will face the
immediate economic fallout though they will not be the only casualties.

 

Boitshoko Ntshabele, chief executive of the Citrus Growers’ Association of
Southern Africa (CGA) said the levy will hurt all South African farmers and
farm workers, no matter their race.

 

 

 

“A 30% tariff would wreak havoc on communities that have, for decades,
focused on producing specifically for the U.S. market,” he said.

 

‘FARMERS WILL GO BANKRUPT’

Its location in the Southern Hemisphere means South Africa produces citrus
at times of the year when the U.S. doesn’t, with its exports giving U.S.
consumers year-round access to fruit.

 

While the United States accounts for only around 6% of South Africa’s citrus
exports, some farming areas produce specifically for the U.S. market.

 

Redirecting produce grown for the U.S. to other markets is not simple, as
size and plant health requirements vary from country to country.

 

Nestled in a valley in Western Cape’s rugged Cederberg mountains, Mouton’s
family farm employs 21 permanent workers, and nearly triple that number
during peak picking season.

 

The CGA has said about 35,000 jobs are at risk in Citrusdal alone, as the
tariffs risk making South African citrus uncompetitive compared to fruit
from Peru, Chile, and Australia.

 

 

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has said trade talks with Washington
will continue and argued that the 30% rate was based on an inaccurate
understanding of the two countries’ trade.

 

In the meantime though, the CGA wants to speed up an expansion of exports to
new markets including China and India. High tariffs in some countries and
stringent plant health requirements in the European Union, for example, make
that a complicated prospect, however.

 

Not far from Mouton’s farm, workers are carrying on as usual, for now,
sorting and packing fruit at the 14,000-square-metre Goede Hoop Citrus
warehouse. But if the 30% levy remains in place, that won’t last long,
managing director Andre Nel told Reuters.

 

“Farmers will go bankrupt. For sure there would be job losses within our
sector,” he said. “I don’t even want to think about it.”

 

($1 = 17.8568 rand)

 

 

 

 

Trump sells shift from ‘aid to trade’ in White House meeting with African
leaders

(Reuters) – President Donald Trump told leaders from five African nations on
Wednesday that he was shifting the U.S. approach to the continent from aid
to trade and that the United States is a better partner for Africa than
China.

 

Trump, who has shuttered the U.S. Agency for International Development and
slashed funding for programs that help Africans, hosted leaders from Gabon,
Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania and Senegal for a discussion about
business opportunities in their countries.

 

Trump said his administration was committed to strengthening friendships in
Africa, which he hoped to visit at some point.

 

“We’re shifting from aid to trade,” he said at the start of a White House
meeting. “There’s great economic potential in Africa, like few other places.
In many ways, in the long run, this will be far more effective and
sustainable and beneficial than anything else that we can be doing
together.”

 

The African leaders, in turn, heaped praise on the U.S. president for
brokering peace deals around the world and expressed support for his
receiving a Nobel Prize – a sign that they, like many other foreign leaders,
appear to have learned how well flattery goes over with the former New York
businessman.

 

Liberian President Joseph Boakai said he supported Trump’s efforts to make
“America great again,” a reference to Trump’s political slogan, and
encouraged U.S. investment in his country.

 

Trump praised Boakai’s English and asked him where he had learned it.
Liberia was founded by freed slaves from America and English is its official
language; Boakai said he learned it there.

 

“We are not poor countries. We are rich countries when it comes to raw
materials. But we need partners to support us and help us develop those
resources,” said Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, president of Gabon. “You are
welcome to come and invest. Otherwise, other countries might come instead of
you.”

 

This week’s mini-summit marks the latest effort by successive U.S.
administrations to counter perceptions of U.S. neglect of a continent where
China has increasingly made economic inroads.

 

“We treat Africa far better than China or anybody else, anyplace else,”
Trump said.

 

 

COMPLICATED HISTORY

Trump did not visit Africa during his first term, though his wife, Melania,
did. Some African politicians labeled Trump a racist in 2018 after he was
reported to have described some immigrants from Africa and Haiti as coming
from “shithole” countries.

 

In May, Trump confronted South African President Cyril Ramaphosa with
explosive false claims of white genocide and land seizures during a tense
White House meeting.

 

But Wednesday’s meeting did not have any such fireworks. After repeated
compliments from the leaders, Trump quipped that he could “do this all day
long.”

 

Africa experts are waiting for Trump to announce dates for a broader summit
with African leaders, possibly in September around the time of the United
Nations General Assembly.

 

The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) said earlier in
the day it would provide project development funding for the Banio Potash
Mine in Mayumba, Gabon, helping Gabon reduce its dependence on imports.

 

“DFC’s efforts not only benefit the countries and communities where they
invest but also advance U.S. economic interests by opening new markets,
strengthening trade relationships, and promoting a more secure and
prosperous global economy,” said DFC head of investments Conor Coleman.

 

 

Trump’s government continues to send out letters notifying trading partners
of higher tariff rates taking effect on August 1 and has launched a new
front in his trade war against members of the BRICS group of developing
countries.

 

His administration has also axed huge swaths of U.S. foreign aid for Africa
as part of a plan to curb spending it considers wasteful and focus on an
“America First” agenda.

 

Those cuts could result in more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030,
research published by The Lancet medical journal showed last week.

 

Senior U.S. officials have said that Washington wants to prioritize trade
and investment over charity-based assistance and will focus on creating more
opportunities for U.S. firms.

 

All five countries invited have abundant natural resources, including
manganese, iron ore, gold, diamonds, lithium and cobalt, which are essential
for use in current technologies. China has invested heavily across the
continent in recent years, especially in resource extraction.

 

But African Union officials question how Africa could deepen trade ties with
the U.S. under what they called “abusive” tariff proposals and visa
restrictions largely targeting travelers from Africa. The top U.S. diplomat
for Africa, Ambassador Troy Fitrell, has dismissed allegations of unfair
U.S. trade practices.

 

 

 

 

 

Nigeria secures $747-million Deutsche Bank-led syndicated loan for coastal
highway

(Reuters) – Nigeria has secured a $747 million syndicated loan, led by
Deutsche Bank, to finance construction of the first phase of its planned
700-km (435-mile) coastal highway project, the finance ministry said on
Thursday.

 

Finance ministry spokesperson Mohammad Manga said the loan is the first of
its size for road infrastructure in Nigeria.

 

Deutsche Bank acted as global coordinator in the syndicate, which includes
First Abu Dhabi Bank, African Export-Import Bank, Abu Dhabi Exports Office,
ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development, and Zenith Bank.

 

The initial section of the highway financed by the loan spans 47.47 km,
Manga said. The entire project is expected to cost around $11 billion and be
completed in about eight years.

 

The highway will eventually link the commercial capital, Lagos, to the
southeastern port city of Calabar.

 

($1 = 1,523.4800 naira)

 

 

 

 

 

South African rand gains ahead of local manufacturing data

(Reuters) – The South African rand gained in early trade on Thursday before
the release of domestic manufacturing data, while investors also kept a
close tab on trade negotiations after U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest
tariff threats.

 

At 0635 GMT the rand traded at 17.7350 against the dollar, up roughly 0.6%
from Wednesday’s close.

 

Statistics South Africa will publish May manufacturing output at 1100 GMT.

 

Production fell 6.3% year-on-year in April, but analysts polled by Reuters
and Nedbank economists expect it to have fallen by a smaller margin this
time around of 1.5% and 0.5% respectively.

 

“While the monthly data may show some improvement, underlying conditions
remain weak” Nedbank economists said in a note.

 

The note also referenced a purchasing managers’ index released last week
that showed tentative improvement in manufacturing sentiment, though output
is still weak and logistics bottlenecks remain.

 

“The sector continues to grapple with excess capacity amid subdued global
and domestic demand and weak commodity prices,” the note said.

 

South Africa’s benchmark 2035 government bond was little changed in early
deals. The yield rose half a basis point to 9.845%.

 

 

 

 

Nigerians face new US visa restrictions with three-month limit

(Reuters) – Nigerians seeking to travel to the United States on
non-immigrant visas will now receive single-entry three-month permits, the
U.S. Embassy in Nigeria said, rolling back the up to five-year,
multiple-entry visas they enjoyed previously.

 

“We wish to underscore that as is standard globally, visa reciprocity is a
continuous process and is subject to review and change at any time, such as
increasing or decreasing permitted entries and duration of validity,” the
statement on the embassy’s website said.

 

A Nigerian foreign ministry official told local media that Nigeria has no
such visa policy towards U.S. citizens.

 

In June, the Trump administration added Nigeria to a list of 36 countries
that could face travel restrictions if they failed to address various
security and diplomatic concerns within two months.

 

Nigeria’s Foreign Affairs Minister Yusuf Tuggar did not respond to requests
for comment.

 

Nigeria received nearly one-fifth of the non-immigrant visas issued by the
U.S. government in 2024 in Africa, according to the State Department, and is
second only to South Africa on the list of such visas issued for that fiscal
year.

 

 

 

 

 

Ghana warns of power cuts while Italy’s Eni works to boost gas supply

(Reuters) – Italian energy group Eni will temporarily suspend operations at
a gas plant in Ghana on Sunday to implement a supply increase, likely
resulting in power cuts, the West African country said on Wednesday.

 

Ghana, the world’s second biggest cocoa producer, has been trying to ramp up
oil and gas production to increase revenues and prevent fossil fuels from
becoming stranded.

 

It has reached a deal with Eni to increase natural gas supply by 30 million
standard cubic feet per day to 270 million, the energy ministry said in a
statement on X on Wednesday.

 

To facilitate the upgrade, Eni will temporarily halt some operations,
resulting in “an impact on the availability of gas for power generation,”
the statement said.

 

Speaking at an event on Monday in the southern city of Kumasi, Energy
Minister John Jinapor said Ghana was “likely to experience some interactions
or interruption of power” while the plant was offline.

 

“Once the work is done, we shall stabilise supply of gas, increase gas
production and that will improve the delivery of power,” he said.

 

Eni’s Offshore Cape Three Points project off Ghana’s Atlantic Coast meets
65% of the country’s energy demand, according to the Italian company’s
website.

 

Last week, Tullow Oil said in a statement it was planning to increase the
supply of gas from its Jubilee and TEN projects to about 130 million
standard cubic feet per day.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PrimeXBT Launches ‘Trade as VIP’ Campaign Offering 70% Off Trading Fees for
South African Traders

PrimeXBT, a leading FSCA-regulated multi-asset broker, has launched its
latest promotion, ‘Trade as VIP’, granting all newly registered users in
South Africa instant access to VIP 2 status for 30 days. As part of the
platform’s tiered system, VIP levels reward traders with reduced fees,
tighter spreads, and exclusive platform benefits. For a limited time, new
users can experience these professional-grade conditions from the moment
they join, without needing to meet any trading volume thresholds.

 

Running from July 1 to August 31, 2025, the campaign is designed to remove
entry barriers for new traders by automatically upgrading every new account
to VIP 2. On the Crypto Futures platform, this unlocks almost a 70%
reduction in taker fees, dropping from the standard 0.045% to just 0.015%.
In the coming weeks, VIP 2 users will also benefit from up to 30% discounts
on spreads across Forex and CFDs on Stocks, Commodities, Indices, and Crypto
on PXTrader.

 

In addition to improved trading conditions, VIP 2 status also provides
priority customer support, instant withdrawals, and higher withdrawal
limits, enhancing the overall trading experience across both platforms.

 

According to Sihle Tuta, Head of PrimeXBT South Africa, the campaign is
particularly relevant for local traders navigating cost constraints and
seeking fair access to high-performance platforms:

 

“This campaign delivers real value by giving South African traders access to
some of the best trading conditions in the industry. From day one, we’re
empowering users to start stronger, trade smarter, and build early momentum,
combining cost-efficiency with a professional-grade experience designed to
help them succeed.”

 

PrimeXBT ranks among the lowest-cost options on the market, outperforming
major platforms in fee efficiency. For example, a $1,000,000 Bitcoin trade
under VIP 2 would generate $300 in savings compared to standard fees. These
savings scale significantly with volume, helping both casual and active
traders reduce trading costs without compromising execution quality.

 

With meaningful savings and access to top-tier tools and conditions,
PrimeXBT is lowering the cost of entry while raising the standard of what
new traders can expect. This campaign reinforces the broker’s ongoing
commitment to making high-performance trading more accessible, empowering,
and competitive for all, especially in emerging markets like South Africa.

 

Learn more about PrimeXBT’s ‘Trade as VIP’ campaign.

 

Disclaimer: The content provided here is for informational purposes only and
is not intended as personal investment advice and does not constitute a
solicitation or invitation to engage in any financial transactions,
investments, or related activities. Past performance is not a reliable
indicator of future results. The financial products offered by the Company
are complex and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to
leverage. These products may not be suitable for all investors. Before
engaging, you should consider whether you understand how these leveraged
products work and whether you can afford the high risk of losing your money.
The Company does not accept clients from the Restricted Jurisdictions as
indicated on its website.

 

PrimeXBT (PTY) LTD is an authorised financial services provider in South
Africa with licence number 45697. PrimeXBT (PTY) LTD acts as an intermediary
between the investor and the market maker which is the counterparty to the
products purchased through PrimeXBT.

 

 

 

 

 

South Africa’s energy goals depend on grid expansion

South Africa’s electricity grid was never designed to support a
decentralised, renewable-powered economy. Originally built to transmit power
from centralised coal-fired power plants in specific regions, the grid is
now overwhelmed by a surge of wind and solar projects seeking connection.
More than 80% of grid capacity in solar- and wind-resource-rich provinces
like the Northern and Western Cape is fully allocated, stalling the further
roll-out of renewable technology. This continuing grid constraint is costing
the country momentum, investment, low-cost energy, and the opportunity to
transition to a sustainable energy future. If we do not address this
decisively, the knock-on effects will be increasingly felt in the broader
economy.

 

We have outgrown the grid but delays and unpredictability are hurting
efforts to invest in it

 

According to Eskom, more than R388 billion is needed to upgrade and
modernise the country’s transmission and distribution infrastructure. That
level of investment cannot, and should not, rest solely on the utility’s
already stretched balance sheet. The delays in Bid Windows 6 and 7 of the
Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP)
have already illustrated the cost of inaction and are hurting investor
confidence. Developers spent time, resources, and capital preparing their
bids, only to see fewer than anticipated preferred bidders because the
national grid could not support the pipeline. While some of these projects
may shift into private sector channels, the fundamental constraint remains
unchanged: Without transmission capacity, energy ambitions have stalled.

 

On-the-ground challenges further compound the issue. The Interim Grid
Capacity Allocation Rules (IGCAR) process, which assesses the technical
feasibility of a connection, is long, expensive, and inconsistent. Land
access and permitting can also become a bottleneck, as delays in securing
servitudes and environmental permits can halt progress for months. For
project lenders and equity investors alike, this creates undesirable
uncertainty. Resource planning, capital allocation, returns, and deal
preparation all depend on predictable closing timelines.

 

Credible solutions to invest in the grid exist but more structural reform is
required

 

Some interim solutions have emerged. Curtailment regulations have been
introduced in parts of the Eastern and Western Cape to help ease congestion.
The Independent Power Producer Office has launched a battery storage
procurement programme to help balance the grid during peak and off-peak
cycles. However, a new long-term approach is urgently needed. The
Independent Transmission Project (ITP) model, currently being developed with
the support of the World Bank, offers a credible way forward. It enables
capital to be moved at scale and allows private developers to finance,
build, and operate transmission lines before transferring them back to
Eskom, unlocking capital without sacrificing long-term national control. The
model has worked in Brazil, India, and Peru. There’s every reason to believe
it can work here too.

 

Much will depend on the structure of the accompanying credit guarantee
vehicle. For lenders, this is the make-or-break element. Who underwrites the
risk? How is it rated? Which payment scenario does it cover? While buyer
default is addressed, seller default, which is material to the transaction
structuring, is not mentioned. The legal mechanism for calling the guarantee
must be clear, predictable, and fair. Anything less will compromise lender
and investor confidence and limit participation.

 

Nedbank is actively shaping solutions and supporting reform

 

At Nedbank Corporate and Investment Banking, we are lending our voice to
these conversations by discussing how to shape the guarantee structure to
meet the criteria of commercial banks. We have funded dozens of renewable
and infrastructure projects over the years, and we understand the balance of
risk that must be struck for capital to move at scale. The unbundling of
Eskom, and transitioning into separate generation, transmission and
distribution entities, must be finalised. Without that separation, the
perception of conflict will persist, and investor interest will remain
cautious.

 

 

 

Structural reforms will determine the future of both the sector and the
South African economy. As with REIPPPP-embedded community development,
empowerment ownership, and local procurement, the ITP will need to carry
forward those social outcome principles. But expectations must be realistic.
For example, overly rigid local content rules could do more harm than good
unless paired with meaningful investment in domestic manufacturing capacity.

 

There are real opportunities, if we move fast

 

That is not to say there are no opportunities. On 28 March 2025, the
Minister of Electricity and Energy published a ministerial determination
confirming the procurement of approximately 1 164 km of 400 kV transmission
powerlines, with associated transmission infrastructure under tendering
procedures. The minister also released draft regulations that outline how
private investors can participate in developing South Africa’s transmission
network. The regulations are intended to support the roll-out of 5 840 km of
new transmission lines – the first phase of a broader plan to expand the
grid by 14 000 km by 2032 – beginning with an initial 1 164 km pilot project
across 7 key corridors. Transmission infrastructure requires significant
quantities of steel, creating openings to support the local mining and
manufacturing sectors. With the right policy signals, a grid expansion
programme could double as an industrial stimulus, building both energy
security and economic depth.

 

Nedbank plays a leading role in South Africa’s energy transition

 

At Nedbank Corporate and Investment Banking, we are proud of the work our
team has done. In Round 7 of the REIPPPP and battery storage programme, we
were mandated on 14 of the 16 preferred bids. That is not a coincidence. It
reflects our deep sectoral knowledge, strong partnerships, and ability to
structure bankable projects under challenging conditions. We are not just
funding infrastructure – we are helping shape it.

 

South Africa has the talent, the capital, and the will to lead a Just Energy
Transition. But without a modern and inclusive grid, that vision will remain
out of reach. The time to act is now because the longer we wait, the more we
lose.

 

 

 

 

 

GCR Ratings: Corporate debt issuances to grow modestly in 2025

GCR Ratings expects corporate debt issuances to grow modestly in 2025,
driven by increased commercial paper issuances. In its report on Nigeria’s
debt capital markets, the agency noted that its projection is underpinned by
a projected slowdown in inflation, which could support a less restrictive
monetary policy stance. However, growth in corporate debt issuance could be
constrained by the crowding-out effect of elevated sovereign borrowing, as
well as high interest rates, which limited bond issuances in the prior year.
Akin Majekodunmi, CEO of GCR Ratings joins CNBC Africa to unpack the report.

 

 

 

Nigeria's Dangote refinery plans 1.6 mln barrels fuel storage tanks in
Namibia, sources say

Nigeria's Dangote petroleum refinery will construct storage tanks in Namibia
to hold at least 1.6 million barrels of gasoline and diesel to supply
refined fuel to southern Africa, two sources told Reuters on Wednesday. The
move underscores the refinery's ambition to dominate fuel supply in Africa
and beyond, potentially reshaping energy trade flows in the region and
boosting access to refined products for southern African nations. The
650,000 barrels per day refinery, built at a cost of $20 billion by Africa's
richest man Aliko Dangote, started operations last year and has been ramping
up production and seeking new markets. The sources, who were briefed on the
development, said the storage tanks would be used to supply gasoline and
diesel to Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Dangote was also
considering supplying fuel to southern Democratic Republic of Congo, the
sources said. A Dangote spokesperson did not respond to a request for
comment. It was not immediately clear how much the project would cost, but
the second source said construction of the storage tanks would begin shortly
in the port city of Walvis Bay. A Namibia Ports Authority official confirmed
the plans and said the storage tanks would be housed within the Walvis Bay
harbour. A source said last month that a Dangote gasoline cargo was heading
to Asia, the first time the refinery was selling gasoline outside the West
Africa region. Dangote refinery says at full capacity, the plant would
produce enough to meet demand in Nigeria, which has sharply cut imports of
processed fuels, and export the rest.

The Reuters Power Up newsletter provides everything you need to know about
the global energy industry. 

 

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

 

 

 

 

The macroeconomic effects of introducing a central bank digital currency

Central bank digital currencies are gaining traction as a potential
innovation in central banking, with numerous countries considering their
implementation. However, given the limited real-world experience with such
currencies, researchers and policymakers depend on theoretical analysis to
assess their potential. This column presents a new macroeconomic model that
reveals significant welfare gains from introducing central bank digital
currencies, particularly those that offer interest. Despite the stronger
interest in such currencies in Europe, the potential welfare gains may be
even higher for the US.

 

Central banks worldwide are increasingly exploring the potential
introduction of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). As of 2024, a
significant number — 134 countries representing 98% of global economic
output — are actively researching or preparing to launch their own digital
currencies. This group includes most of the G20 economies, with particularly
prominent initiatives such as the digital euro in the euro area (see, for
example, the Atlantic Council's CBDC tracker).

 

The introduction of a CBDC could substantially change the financial and
monetary landscape. As central banks venture into this digital currency
territory, numerous critical questions emerge: Will the introduction of a
CBDC genuinely benefit an economy as a whole? How should central banks set
the interest rate on CBDCs? And how does this rate relate to broader
economic conditions, particularly existing interest rates?

 

Since practical experience with CBDC is still limited, policymakers turn to
theoretical economic models for insights into these questions. In new work
(Paul et al. 2025), we provide such guidance by proposing a novel general
equilibrium model that features a realistic banking sector to study the
macroeconomic effects of introducing a CBDC.

 

Our model reveals a critical trade-off with CBDC implementation. On the one
hand, households benefit from CBDC because it provides an additional secure
and convenient savings option and because it competes with traditional bank
deposits, prompting banks to offer better deposit rates to retain customers.
On the other hand, banks not only have to raise their deposit rates, but
they also face deposit outflows, both lowering their profitability and their
lending to businesses, leading in turn to lower investment and production.

 

Given this trade-off, we use our framework to investigate how the impact of
CBDC introduction varies with the interest rate paid on CBDC. Interestingly,
the model delivers a unique optimal CBDC rate that implies a welfare
improvement for the overall economy. For our baseline calibration to US
data, this rate lies at around 0.8% per year, rather than zero as often
envisioned by policymakers.

 

Expanding our analysis beyond a specific economy, we further study the
effects of introducing CBDCs in many economies that differ solely in the
general level of their interest rates. For each economy, we identify the
CBDC rate that maximises overall welfare. We discover significant welfare
improvements when countries adopt a straightforward rule to determine CBDC
interest rates: setting the rate at either 0% or at 1% below the current
policy rate, whichever is higher. This rule effectively balances the
potential benefits and drawbacks of CBDCs and avoids controversial outcomes
such as negative CBDC rates, which are politically challenging and
unpopular.

 

A macroeconomic model of central bank digital currency

Our theoretical model incorporates several critical components of an
economy, including households, banks, firms, and the government. Households
make spending and saving decisions, banks accept household deposits and
provide loans to businesses, and firms borrow funds to invest.

 

Our model has two notable features. First, households gain liquidity
benefits from cash, deposits, and CBDCs, as these instruments can facilitate
transactions. Importantly, households view these three options as not
perfectly interchangeable. Instead, factors such as convenience for online
payments, anonymity, or government backing influence their choice, beyond
just interest rates.

 

Second, banks hold market power in deposit markets, allowing them to set
deposit rates below the central bank’s policy rate. The difference between
these two rates is known as the deposit spread. Bank market power, along
with competition among liquidity options, determines this spread.

 

Given these two features, our framework has the following properties. In the
absence of a CBDC, the deposit spread rises with the level of the policy
rate, since banks gain market power as the rate on cash is fixed at zero
(e.g. Drechsler et al. 2017). When a CBDC enters the economy, this spread
shrinks because households enjoy the liquidity benefits of CBDC and
consequently reduce their bank deposits. The greatest reduction in spread
occurs when the CBDC rate is close to the policy rate, as a CBDC is a strong
competitor to traditional deposits within that range. Thus, in environments
with high policy rates and wide deposit spreads, an interest-bearing CBDC
significantly reduces banks' market power.

 

Besides the aforementioned features, the model also incorporates financial
frictions so that bank profitability influences bank capital and lending, a
bond market that can substitute for bank financing, a central bank, and
nominal price rigidities building on the New Keynesian tradition. Calibrated
carefully to US data, the model accurately replicates historical patterns in
loan rates, deposit rates, and bond spreads.

 

CBDC introduction for different CBDC rates

We use the model as a laboratory to explore the effects of introducing a
CBDC. First, we investigate how the impact of CBDC introduction varies with
the CBDC rate. Figure 1 shows how deposit holdings are affected (orange
dash-dotted line), CBDC adoption (yellow dashed line), and overall welfare
changes (blue solid line), measured as the multiplicative
consumption-equivalent variation required to keep households indifferent
between the pre-CBDC and the post-CBDC steady states.

 

Figure 1 Effects of central bank digital currency introduction

 

Figure 1 Effects of central bank digital currency introduction

Notes: This figure displays the behaviour of several variables for different
levels of the CBDC interest rate. The welfare change (gain if positive, loss
if negative) from CBDC introduction, in percent, is in blue, the
deposit-to-GDP ratio is in orange, and the CBDC-to-GDP ratio is in yellow.

Interestingly, the welfare change displays an inverted U-shape. If a CBDC
pays a very low interest rate, households show minimal interest in holding
the digital currency and banks’ deposit market power is largely unaffected,
limiting the potential gains from CBDC introduction. Conversely, if the CBDC
interest rate is set very high, households shift dramatically from
traditional bank deposits to CBDCs. This shift leads to significant declines
in bank profitability and lending capabilities. Consequently, business
investments suffer, and overall economic activity declines, ultimately
harming welfare. Thus, the model identifies an optimal CBDC rate of around
0.8% annually. This rate ensures the maximum economic benefit without unduly
harming the banking sector.

 

Welfare-maximising CBDC rate across policy rates

Next, we examine CBDC effects across economies that differ only in their
baseline policy rates and determine the optimal CBDC interest rate for each
economy. Figure 2 shows the optimal CBDC rate (blue solid line) compared
with the policy rate (the 45-degree line).

 

Figure 2 Optimal central bank digital currency rate

 

Figure 2 Optimal central bank digital currency rate

Notes: This figure displays the policy rate in orange (in both axes, so it
is the 45-degree line), the welfare-maximising level of the CBDC rate in
blue, and an approximate welfare-maximising rule-of-thumb rate, which is the
maximum between 0 and the policy rate minus 1%, in yellow.

For policy rates below 1%, the optimal CBDC rate is slightly negative or can
even exceed the policy rate. For rates above 1%, the optimal CBDC rate lies
approximately 80 to 120 basis points below the policy rate. We demonstrate
that a simple guideline, setting the CBDC rate at the higher of 0% or 1%
below the policy rate, closely matches this optimal rate (the yellow dashed
line in Figure 2). This simple rule of thumb can easily be applied to
diverse economies and avoids the contentious issue of negative CBDC rates.

 

Introducing a CBDC with this design significantly impacts the banking
sector. Figure 3 highlights how banks' market power declines substantially,
especially in high-interest-rate environments. At a 5% policy rate, banks
typically charge a high deposit spread of around 2.5% without CBDC (black
dotted line). Introducing a CBDC at the optimal rate (blue solid line)
increases the deposit rate to 4.3%, reducing the spread to just 0.7%.
Indeed, introducing an optimally remunerated CBDC stabilises deposit spreads
around 70 basis points for policy rates between 2% and 7%, significantly
reducing banks' market power in deposit markets.

 

 

 

 

 

Mining firms lift FTSE 100 to record high after Trump confirms 50% copper
tariff

Global investors are brushing off a string of announcements of high U.S.
tariffs because they are being viewed a “posturing,” according to Hargreaves
Lansdown’s head of money and markets, Susannah Streeter. Ultimately, traders
see room to negotiate top rates away in the weeks ahead, and are also still
hoping for news of an EU framework deal with the White House, she said in a
Thursday morning note.

 

“Hopes are riding high that the effects on global growth won’t be as onerous
as feared,” Streeter said.

 

“The FTSE 100 is stuffed full of multinationals which are sensitive to the
outlook for the world economy and with the so-called ‘TACO trade’ in full
swing, it’s benefiting from more optimism around,” she continued, referring
to the phrase “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

 

Miners have meanwhile “roared back to life” as copper prices hit record
highs on news of a 50% U.S. tariff, which Streeter said would benefit major
producers in the short term.

 

— Jenni Reid

 

 

 

JPMorgan upgrades Vietnam stocks to overweight

JPMorgan is turning more positive on Vietnam stocks after the country’s
trade deal announcement with the U.S., upgrading its position to overweight.
This comes after Vietnam became the first Southeast Asian nation to strike a
tariff deal with the U.S. at a 20% rate.

 

“This, combined with strong economic growth (2Q25 GDP near 8%), prompts us
to upgrade Vietnam to [overweight] within ASEAN, with a new VN-Index
base/bull target of 1,500/1,600 by year end,” analysts led by the bank’s
Khoi Vu wrote in a research note.

 

The Vietnam Index was trading 0.78% higher at 1,442.29 as of Thursday, 12.45
p.m. local time.

 

— Lee Ying Shan

 

 

 

 

Royal Mail to scrap second-class post on Saturdays

Royal Mail will start to deliver second-class letters on every other weekday
and not on Saturdays to help cut costs, the industry regulator has said.

 

Ofcom said a reform to postal service was needed as people are sending fewer
letters each year, so stamp prices keep rising as the cost of delivering
letters goes up.

 

The changes mean second-class letters will be delivered either on Monday,
Wednesday and Friday, or on Tuesday and Thursday, in a two-week cycle.

 

Royal Mail welcomed the changes, which will take effect on 28 July, but the
move was criticised by some consumer and business groups.

 

 

Under the current one-price-goes-anywhere Universal Service Obligation
(USO), Royal Mail has to deliver post six days a week, from Monday to
Saturday, and parcels on five from Monday to Friday.

 

Ofcom says Royal Mail will have to continue to deliver first-class letters
six days a week.

 

"These changes are in the best interests of consumers and businesses, as
urgent reform of the postal service is necessary to give it the best chance
of survival," said Natalie Black, Ofcom's group director for networks and
communications.

 

However, just changing Royal Mail's obligations will not improve the
service, she said.

 

"The company now has to play its part and implement this effectively."

 

Royal Mail estimates it will take 12 to 18 months to implement the changes
across its network.

 

It has been piloting the changes to delivery since February in 37 of its
1,200 delivery offices, and said it was "keen to move ahead with deployment
as soon as possible".

 

The regulator is also making changes to Royal Mail's delivery targets.

 

The company will have to deliver 90% of first-class mail next-day, down from
the current target of 93%, while 95% of second-class mail must be delivered
within three days, a cut from the current 98.5%.

 

However, there will be a new target of 99% of mail being delivered no more
than two days late to incentivise Royal Mail to cut down on long delays.

 

 

Royal Mail's parent company, International Distribution Services (IDS),
welcomed the Ofcom announcement, saying it was "good news for customers
across the UK", and that it would support a "reliable, efficient and
financially sustainable Universal Service".

 

Martin Seidenberg, IDS chief executive, said the changes follow "extensive
consultation with thousands of people and businesses" to reflect their needs
and the "realities of how customers send and receive mail today".

 

However, consumer group Citizens Advice said Royal Mail had a "woeful track
record of failing to meet delivery targets, all the while ramping up postage
costs".

 

Tom MacInnes, Citizens Advice director of policy, said Ofcom had "missed a
major opportunity to bring about meaningful change".

 

"Pushing ahead with plans to slash services and relax delivery targets in
the name of savings won't automatically make letter deliveries more reliable
or improve standards," he said

 

The regulator needs to force Royal Mail to give "paying customers a service
that delivers," he added.

 

 

The UK Greeting Card Association also criticised the move, saying that its
members "remain concerned that a reduction in the second-class service,
would lead to a reliance on uncapped, unregulated first-class mail that is
increasingly unaffordable for businesses and consumers alike".

 

The Liberal Democrats said Ofcom's announcement was a "deeply worrying
decision that could leave countless people who rely on these deliveries in
the lurch".

 

"People need to know that their post will arrive on time so they can go
about their lives, and this move flies right in the face of that," said the
party's business spokesperson, Sarah Olney.

 

 

The number of letters Royal Mail delivers has fallen from a peak of 20
billion in 2004-05 to 6.6 billion in 2023-24.

 

Since 2008, Royal Mail's revenues from letters have fallen from £6.9bn to
£3.7bn.

 

However, the price of stamps has continued to rise. Since 2022, Royal Mail
has hiked the cost of a first-class stamp from 85p to £1.70.

 

Despite pushing up prices, in 2023-24, Royal Mail made a loss of £348m.

 

Ofcom has fined Royal Mail three times since 2020 for missing delivery
targets - £1.5m in 2020, £5.6m in 2023, and £10.5m in 2024.

 

 

 

 

 

Rupee nudges higher; familiar resistance, support levels tipped to hold

(Reuters) - The Indian rupee ticked up on Thursday, tracking regional peers
higher, as a fresh round of tariff threats from the White House did little
to move the needle for markets with traders expecting the local unit to
stick to its familiar range in the near-term.

The rupee was at 85.59 as of 12:20 p.m. IST, up 0.1% from its previous close
of 85.6725.

Get the latest news from India and how it matters to the world with the
Reuters India File newsletter. Sign up here.

Traders reckon that the rupee may hover between 85.40 and 86, a range that
it has settled into over the last couple of weeks, as they wait for the
result of trade negotiations with the United States.

 

 

Most regional economies have received tariff letters from Trump but India's
negotiations with U.S. are still ongoing. A trade delegation is expected to
visit the U.S. soon for further talks, an Indian trade official said on
Thursday.

 

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced a 50% tariff on U.S.
copper imports and a 50% duty on goods from Brazil, both to start on August
1.

Trump has also dispatched August 1 tariff notices to seven minor U.S.
trading partners that exported only $15 billion in goods to the U.S. last
year, including a 20% tariff on goods from the Philippines.

 

However, equity and currency markets in Asia appeared to take the latest
salvos in their stride, with the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific
shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), opens new tab up 0.4%.

 

 

Asian currencies were mostly up between 0.1% to 0.4% while the dollar index
steadied just shy of 97.5.

While the immediate reaction was muted, ANZ said in a note that an uncertain
trade outlook and weaker growth prospects were likely to limit portfolio
inflows in the Asian region in the near term.

 

Meanwhile, dollar-rupee forward premiums were little changed on the day,
showing little support for an interest rate cut later this month, with most
policymakers remaining worried about the inflationary pressures emanating
from tariffs.

 

Reporting by Jaspreet Kalra; Editing by Janane Venkatraman

 

 

 

 

 

Ukraine to launch Starlink mobile internet in 2026, becoming Europe's first,
Kyivstar says

(Reuters) - Ukraine will become the first European nation to offer Starlink
mobile services when leading operator Kyivstar launches messaging by
year-end and mobile satellite broadband in mid-2026, Chief Executive
Oleksandr Komarov said.

Field tests have begun under an end-2024 deal with Space X's commercial
broadband constellation to allow tech entrepreneur Elon Musk's company to
launch direct-to-cell services in the war-torn country.

 

 

Direct-to-cell devices connect to satellites equipped with modems that
function like a cellphone tower, beaming telephone signals from space
directly to smartphones.

"The first phase is over-the-top (OTT) messaging ... so messaging via
WhatsApp, Signal, and other systems ... it will be in place at the end of
this year," Komarov told Reuters in Rome.

"And probably at the beginning of 2026, let's be on the safe side, Q2 2026,
we will be able to propose mobile satellite broadband data ... and voice."

SpaceX did not respond to an emailed request for comment.

US carrier T-Mobile (TMUS.O), opens new tab will introduce a data service on
its satellite-to-cell network, powered by Starlink, at the start of October,
the company said in June.

 

 

Komarov was speaking ahead of a Ukraine recovery conference Italy is hosting
three years after the Russian invasion, with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy
also due to attend.

He said his main aim at the conference, the fourth since the war began in
February 2022, was to support the Ukrainian government and establish new
business ties, some with Italian firms willing to expand in the country.

 

Kyivstar, owned by telecoms group VEON, is also working towards a U.S.
listing on the NASDAQ stock exchange. Komarov said the project was "moving
forward" and hoped to finalise it in the third quarter of this year.

"I think it will be an exemplary move," he added. "The first in history, the
direct placement of (a) Ukrainian entity on the American stock exchange ...
during the war."

Komarov said Ukrainian telecom infrastructure was holding up well under
Russia's escalating assaults in recent weeks.

 

 

Last year one of its attacks on power grids and transmission lines caused
daily blackouts in major cities after it knocked out about half Ukraine's
available generation capacity.

 

"I think that we are much more resilient than we used to be in 2022. Right
now we can run our fixed and mobile services up to 10 hours during the
blackouts, even national blackouts."

 

Reporting by Angelo Amante and Gianluca Lo Nostro; Editing by Clarence
Fernandez

 

 

 

 

 

Asian shares mostly gain after big tech rally on Wall Street

 

 

Asian shares mostly gained on Thursday after a rally in U.S. tech stocks
lifted the Nasdaq to an all-time high and helped Wall Street claw back most
of its losses from earlier in the week.

 

South Korea’s Kospi climbed 1.6% to 3,183.23 after the Bank of Korea kept
its benchmark interest rate unchanged and as semiconductor shares rose
following Nvidia’s overnight rally on Wall Street.

 

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.4 % to 39,646.36, weighed down by selling of
export-oriented auto and electronics shares amid the yen’s appreciation,
which cuts exporters’ profits.

 

The Hang Seng in Hong Kong added 0.1% to 23,926.09. The Shanghai Composite
index rose 0.5% to 3,511.10. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.6% to
8,589.20.

 

On Wall Street on Wednesday, the S&P 500 rose 0.6% for its first gain this
week. The benchmark index remains near the record it set last week after a
better-than-expected U.S. jobs report.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.5%. The Nasdaq composite, which is
heavily weighted with technology stocks, closed 0.9% higher. The gain was
good enough to nudge the index past the record high it set last Thursday.

 

Nvidia rose 1.8% and became the first public company to exceed $4 trillion
in value after its share price briefly topped $164 each in the early going.
Shares in the AI boom poster child were going for around $14 per share at
the start of 2023.

 

The tech rally came as Wall Street continued to weigh the latest
developments in President Donald Trump’s renewed push this week to use
threats of higher tariffs on goods imported into the U.S. in hopes of
securing new trade agreements with countries around the globe, with the
window for negotiations extended to Aug. 1.

 

In other dealings on Thursday, benchmark U.S. crude lost 6 cents to $68.32
per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, shed 5 cents to $70.14
per barrel.

 

The dollar was trading at 146.13 Japanese yen, down from 146.26 yen. The
euro rose to $1.1732 from $1.1723.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 


 


 Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

 

Cellphone:         +263 71 944 1674 | +27 79 993 5557 

Email:                <mailto:bulls at bullszimbabwe.com>
bulls at bullszimbabwe.com

Website:             <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> www.bullszimbabwe.com 

Blog:                  <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com/blog>
www.bullszimbabwe.com/blog

Twitter (X):        @bullsbears2010

LinkedIn:           Bulls n Bears Zimbabwe

Facebook:           <http://www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe>
www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe



 

 

 


 

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

 


Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

 


 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 


Companies under Cautionary

 

 

 


 

 

 

 


CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

 


Padenga

Econet

RTG

 


Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

 


 

 

 

 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 


 

 


DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of
Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not
constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or
subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has
been compiled from s believed to be reliable, but no representation or
warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All
opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without
notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be
suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth
companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than
the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any
other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability
whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its
contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this
report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent
investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of
any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are
for guideline purposes only and d from third parties.

 


 

 


 (c) 2025 Web:  <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> www.bullszimbabwe.com Email:
<mailto:bulls at bullszimbabwe.com> bulls at bullszimbabwe.com Tel: +27 79 993
5557 | +263 71 944 1674

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20250710/0020f7ec/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image001.png
Type: image/png
Size: 9458 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20250710/0020f7ec/attachment-0002.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image005.png
Type: image/png
Size: 34378 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20250710/0020f7ec/attachment-0003.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: oledata.mso
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 65558 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20250710/0020f7ec/attachment-0001.obj>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image007.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 29359 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20250710/0020f7ec/attachment-0003.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image008.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 29248 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20250710/0020f7ec/attachment-0004.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image009.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 29361 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20250710/0020f7ec/attachment-0005.jpg>