Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 23 June 2025

Tue Jun 24 09:28:50 CAT 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 23 June 2025

ZSE commentary

ZSE Gains persist into the new week ...

ZSE gains persisted into the new week as the All Share Index added 0.15% to
193.34pts while, the Top 10 Index rose 0.01% to 189.70pts .Tlhe Agriculture
Index gained 1.03% to 156.03pts as the Mid-Cap Index edged up 0.59% to
229.43pts. Leading the gainers of the day was Willcllale that j umped 13.96%
to $0.0400, tra iling was TSL that advanced  11.15% to close at $1.9118.
Sugar refiner Star-Africa soared up 9.56% to $0.0550 while, Ecocash followed
closely behind w ith a 9.24% leap to $0.1379. Mashonala nd Gapped of the to
five ga iners for the day with a 3.10% lift to close at $1.2355. On the
other hand, NTS declined 4.93% to $0.6655 while,Tanga nda shed 1.73% to
$0.9600. Telecommuni cations giant Econet s ipped 1.71% to $3.6851,
similarly packaging company Nampak slid 0.31% to $0.8025. Wrapping up the
top five laggards of the day was OKZIM that retreated 0.15% to close at
$0.3001.

Volumes traded plunged 55.49% as approximately 2.86m shares exchanged hands
meanwhile, turnover dropped 96.41% to $1.38m. General Beltings and NTS
claimed 68.31% and 13.34% of the total volumes traded apiece. Dellta, NTS,
Nampak and General Beltings claimed a combined 75.76_% of the turnover. Cass
Saddle ETf eased 5.97%. to $0.1500 cm 300 units. Morgan & Co MfZ ETF was
stable at $0.0500 on 15,000. units. The Revitus REIT was unchanged at
$0.6.300 as 5 units exchanged hands while, the Tigere REIT shed 0.32% to
$1.1500 as 5,257 units traded.-efesec

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

A tale of two currencies: Naira vs cedi

The Ghanaian cedi may have earned the title of the world’s best-performing
currency in 2025, according to Bloomberg data, but analysts caution that
this is not a time for celebration.

Despite the seeming strength, the appreciation is viewed more as a recovery
than a sign of long-term currency stability or economic strength.

This year’s currency rebound, where the cedi appreciated by over 25 percent
against the U.S. dollar, stands in stark contrast to its 2022 crisis, when
it lost more than 55 percent of its value amid soaring inflation, rising
debt, and fiscal mismanagement.

Fitch Ratings has since upgraded Ghana’s foreign-currency issuer rating from
‘Restricted Default’ to ‘B-’, pointing to improved investor confidence.

Yet, financial experts stress that a strong currency, especially in
developing economies, is not necessarily cause for celebration.

Johnson Chukwu, group managing director/CEO of Cowry Asset Management,
believes the cedi’s appreciation reflects a rebound from past depreciation.
“What we are currently seeing is a form of recovery. However, it’s important
to understand this is not necessarily a sign of sustained strength,” he
said. “Over the last four or five years, the cedi has performed better than
some other African currencies, but this must be seen in context.”

He emphasised that Ghana’s currency strength is a correction, not a
turnaround. “The cedi has not appreciated to the extent that it negatively
impacts exports. In fact, it hasn’t reached a point where its strength
becomes a challenge to export competitiveness,” he added.

Ghana’s macroeconomic gains have been supported by policy reforms under a $3
billion IMF Extended Credit Facility, as well as improved foreign exchange
inflows from high global prices of gold and oil.

According to Marvellous Adiele, portfolio manager at Parthian Capital,
“Ghana’s external reserves have steadily grown, supported by increased gold
and oil export earnings. Domestic policies mandating cedi-based gold
purchases have further enhanced foreign currency supply and helped ease
exchange rate pressures.”

Despite this, the recent dollar shortage in Ghana’s banking system is
putting pressure on the exchange rate again. The cedi, which reached around
GH¢10.28 per dollar by May 2025, has come under stress from surging demand
for U.S. dollars and declining liquidity, undermining recent gains and
reminding investors of the volatility that lingers.

>From a broader perspective, Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion
of Private Enterprise (CPPE), said currency appreciation in itself is not a
reliable economic goal. “For a developing economy, celebrating a strong
currency may be misplaced,” he noted. “A very strong currency often leads to
over-reliance on imports and discourages local production. It penalises
domestic manufacturers and encourages consumption of foreign goods.”

He stressed that what should be celebrated is not strength, but stability.

“Focusing solely on having a strong currency is not a viable economic
strategy for a country still building its productive capacity. What is worth
celebrating is currency stability. A stable currency, coupled with liquidity
in the foreign exchange market, inspires confidence among investors,
traders, and consumers.”

Weak currency supports exports

In contrast to Ghana’s currency rebound, Nigeria’s naira has continued to
weaken, raising questions about whether this should be seen in a positive
light. Chukwu argued that a weak currency only supports exports if there is
a solid production base. “For a currency depreciation to stimulate exports,
a country must have competitive, exportable products. Unfortunately, Nigeria
lacks such a base today,” he said.

He said while Nigeria exports crude oil, the naira’s weakness does not
affect competitiveness in that sector as oil is priced in dollars. “Unless
we develop a vibrant manufacturing sector producing goods in naira that are
attractive internationally, currency depreciation will have limited benefits
for exports,” he noted.

However, Yusuf pointed out that Nigeria is beginning to see some positive
effects from the weaker naira. “Should Nigeria celebrate a weaker naira? To
an extent, yes, because it’s encouraging export activities,” he said.
“Exporters of agricultural commodities, for example, are doing better now.
Even some manufacturers are seeing increased demand for their products,
especially within the West African sub-region.”

He cited increased beverage and grain exports as a sign that Nigeria’s
manufacturers are gaining traction, although this trend has also contributed
to rising local food prices. “This increase in exports is also part of the
reason for rising food inflation. With the naira weaker compared to the CFA
franc, Nigerian products especially grains are now cheaper for neighbouring
countries to buy, creating an outflow of goods and contributing to local
price hikes,” he said.

Yusuf warned against artificial exchange rate controls, advocating instead
for a sustainable regime. “Pegging the naira artificially, for example, at
400 to the dollar without adequate reserves and fundamentals will only
create a thriving parallel market, where rates could jump to 1,500/$ or
more. That’s not healthy for the economy,” he cautioned.

In the end, while Ghana basks in the glow of a temporarily strong cedi and
Nigeria grapples with the implications of a weaker naira, experts agree that
neither strength nor weakness should be the focus. The priority for both
countries should be to build stable, export-driven economies with resilient
monetary frameworks capable of withstanding global shocks and sustaining
long-term growth.

South Africa

South African rand gains from risk rally before leading indicator and jobs
data

(Reuters) - The South African rand firmed against a weaker dollar in early
trade on Tuesday, after U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of an
Israel-Iran ceasefire and before the release of domestic leading indicator
and formal sector employment data.

The risk-sensitive local currency has gained some ground after falling to a
one-month low on Monday as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict hung
over markets.

But at 0632 GMT the rand traded at 17.7575 against the dollar , roughly up
0.7% on Monday's close and paring some of its losses.

Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran on Monday evening, news
that sent investors cheering and sparked a risk rally across emerging market
equities and currencies.

Domestic investors will focus on April's business cycle leading indicator
(ZALEAD=ECI), opens new tab data at 0700 GMT, which collects data on vehicle
sales, business confidence, money supply and other factors in Africa's most
industrialised economy.

The country's statistics agency will release first-quarter formal employment
figures shortly after, which exclude the agricultural sector.

In fixed income, government bonds also firmed in early deals. The yield for
debt maturing in 2035 fell 8.5 basis points to 9.975%.

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Dollar slumps in broad risk rally after Trump announces Israel-Iran
ceasefire

(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell on Tuesday while its Australian and New
Zealand counterparts rose after President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire
between Israel and Iran, in news that sent investors cheering and sparked a
risk rally across markets.

Trump announced a complete ceasefire between Israel and Iran, potentially
ending the 12-day conflict that led millions of people to flee Tehran and
prompted fears of further escalation in the war-torn region.

But there was no confirmation from Israel, and the Israeli military said
Iran launched waves of missiles on Tuesday just hours after the
announcement. Trump later said the ceasefire "is now in effect" and urged
both countries to not violate it.

The risk-sensitive Aussie got a lift and last traded 0.5% higher at $0.6493
as did the kiwi , which rose 0.55% to $0.6009.

Israel's shekel rallied sharply too, jumping 1% against the dollar to its
strongest level since February 2023.

"It's obviously positive news for risk sentiment," said Rodrigo Catril,
senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank, of the announced
ceasefire.

"We need to obviously have a bit more detail in terms of exactly what all
this means... I suppose it will be the conditions of the ceasefire, and what
are the conditions for a more longer-lasting peace deal."

The dollar, which last week drew support from safe-haven demand, fell
broadly in the wake of the news.

Against the yen, the greenback was down 0.47% at 145.45 .

The euro rose 0.23% to $1.1605 and sterling advanced 0.27% to $1.3564.

The yen and euro benefited from a slide in oil prices as both the EU and
Japan rely heavily on imports of oil and liquefied natural gas, while the
United States is a net exporter.

Adding to headwinds for the dollar were dovish comments from Federal Reserve
policymaker Michelle Bowman, who said the U.S. central bank should consider
interest rate cuts soon.

Bowman's openness to cutting rates soon is supported by Fed Governor
Christopher Waller, who said in a television interview last week that he
would also consider a rate cut at next month's meeting.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was slightly lower at 98.12,
extending its more than 0.5% decline in the previous session.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to testify before the U.S. Congress on
Tuesday and Wednesday, where focus will be on the outlook for U.S. rates.

"There appears to be increasing division among the ranks of the Fed board
ahead of Fed Chair Powell's testimony," said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst
at IG.

"The chance of a July rate cut... is still underpriced. I think it should be
higher than that."

Markets are now pricing in close to a 23% chance the Fed could ease rates in
July, up from 14.5% a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin rose more than 1% to $105,155.52, while ether
jumped 2.7% to $2,412.54, in a reflection of the positive risk sentiment.

Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Lincoln Feast and Jamie Freed

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Gold at near 2-week low after Trump announces Israel-Iran ceasefire

(Reuters) - Gold prices fell to a near two-week low on Tuesday as risk
appetite improved after U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran and Israel had
agreed to a ceasefire, denting demand for safe-haven assets.

Spot gold was down 0.9% at $3,338.39 an ounce, as of 0526 GMT, after hitting
its lowest level since June 11 earlier in the session.

U.S. gold futures slipped 1.2% to $3,352.60.

"It seems like there's a good bit of geopolitical risk that's exiting the
market here near term after, of course, we have signs of de-escalation
between the U.S. and Iran," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at
Tastylive.

Trump announced a complete ceasefire between Israel and Iran, potentially
ending the 12-day conflict that saw millions flee Tehran and prompted fears
of further escalation in the region.

There was no immediate comment from Israel. While an Iranian official
earlier confirmed that Tehran had agreed to a ceasefire, the country's
foreign minister said there would be no cessation of hostilities unless
Israel stopped its attacks.

Global shares rallied, while oil prices slipped to a one-week low after
Trump announced the Iran-Israel ceasefire.

Meanwhile, U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman
said on Monday that the time to cut interest rates is approaching amid
potential risks to the job market.

Investors await testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell before the House
Financial Services Committee later on Tuesday. Powell has been cautious
about signalling near-term easing.

"The bias for gold prices is higher, but we might see a correction in the
near-term and an uptick in the dollar if Powell convinces markets that
they're not going to cut more than twice this year," Spivak said.

Gold tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment.

Elsewhere, spot silver eased 0.1% to $36.08 per ounce, platinum fell 0.3% to
$1,290.67, while palladium slipped 1.3% to $1,062.94.

Reporting by Brijesh Patel and Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi
Aich and Mrigank Dhaniwala

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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