Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 19 March 2025

[Bulls n Bears]

 <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> Bullszimbabwe.com         <mailto:bulls at bulls.co.zw> Views & Comments        <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> Bullish Thoughts        <http://www.twitter.com/BullsBears2010> Twitter         <https://www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe> Facebook           <http://www.linkedin.com/pub/bulls-n-bears-zimbabwe/57/577/72> LinkedIn          <mailto:%20bulls at bullszimbabwe.com?subject=Unsubscribe> Unsubscribe

 

 	

 

 

 	

Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 19 March 2025

 

 	



 

 	


ZSE commentar

 

ZSE records a 0.07% loss in mid-week session ...

 

The ZSE market recorded a 0.07% loss in the session to close at 209.lOpts on the back of losses in heavies that clinched three spots in the top five losers' list. The Blue-Chip Index was 0.44% lower at 208.14pts while, the Agriculture Index parred off 3.31% to 181.38pts. On the contrary, the Mid Cap Index was 1.18% firmer at 236.85pts. Agriculture concern Ariston led the laggards of the day as it parred off 17.15% $0.0496, trailed by BAT that retreated 10.26% to $105.0000. Tea producer Tanganda plunged 4.16% to close at a VWAP of $4.1117 while, Ecocash closed the day pegged at $0.1781 following a 1.08% decline. Telecommunications group Econet was 0.99% weaker at $4.0391 as it capped the top five worst performers list of the day. Trading in the positive category was Nampak that edged up 14.55% to $0.8700 while, banking group ZB charged 12.06% to $3.9500. Hotelier Rainbow Tourism Group edged up 7.69% to $0.7000 while, TSL charged 6.40% to $1.8000 despite recording a 9% decline in revenue for Ql. Tea producer Tanganda was 5.05% higher at $1.0505.

 

Activity aggregates improved in the session as volumes traded ballooned 6,289.45% to 33.86m shares while, turnover surged 675 .26% to close at $20.73m. In the volume category, activity was mainly confined in Star Africa that contributed 91.05% of the total traded. The duo of Delta and Econet drove the turnover aggregates of the day as it claimed a combined 66.74% of the value traded. In the ETF, no price movements were recorded as a total of 43,350 shares worth $1,955.00 exchanged hands in the session. The Revitus REIT was 8.33% down at $0.6000 while, the Tigere REIT edged up 1.91% to $1.2025.

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

South Africa

 

 

South African rand weakens ahead of local inflation data, Fed decision

The South African rand softened early on Wednesday ahead of the release of local inflation figures and an interest rate decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve later in the day.

 

At 0723 GMT, the rand traded at 18.21 against the dollar, more than 0.4% weaker than its previous close.

 

Domestic investors will look to the statistics agency at 0800 GMT for the release of South Africa’s February inflation data.

 

Economists polled by Reuters estimate inflation rose 3.3% year-on-year last month.

 

Local retail sales figures are due at 1100 GMT.

 

The Fed is widely expected to keep rates steady later on Wednesday, amid investor worries over an economic slowdown due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

 

On the stock market, the Top-40 index was last trading 0.4% higher.

 

South Africa’s benchmark 2030 government bond was stronger in early deals, with the yield down 2.5 basis points to 9.10%.

 

 

 

Nigeria

 

Naira Tumbles as FX Demand Pressures Heat Up, Spread Reduces

The naira dropped against the US dollar in the foreign exchange market as demand for greenback continues to outpace the amount of hard currency in the supply side.

 

FX spot data showed that the Naira depreciated by 0.16% in the official window, closing at ₦1,530.52 per dollar. Similarly, the Naira ended the day at ₦1,580 per dollar in the parallel market.

 

This left the gap between the two markets at N50 amidst sustained FX intervention by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The monetary authority has continued to boost FX inflows by selling US dollar to authorised dealer banks.

 

Since the start of the year, the FX rate has remained relatively stable, supported by intensified CBN efforts, a positive current account position, and increased foreign inflows.

 

However, the outlook faces a key risk from the expectation of weaker global crude oil prices, which could impact Nigeria’s FX stability and stoke some inflationary worries, CardinalStone Securities Limited said in a report.

 

Analysts said so far, Brent crude prices have declined by 5.5% year to date, driven by expectations of rising global crude supply, policy shifts, and weakening demand.

 

 

Notably, the U.S’ push to boost oil production, popularly referred to as “drill-baby-drill”, has led the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to revise its 2025 crude production forecast to 13.61 mbpd, up from the previous estimate of 13.55 mbpd and the 2024 average of 13.22 mbpd.

 

OPEC+ has reaffirmed its December 2024 decision to gradually unwind 2.20 mbpd in voluntary production cuts starting April 1, 2025. CardinalStone said this move could further increase supply and put downward pressure on oil prices. #Naira Tumbles as FX Demand Pressures Heat Up, Spread Reduces#

 

 

 

 

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

Global Markets

 

 

Dollar pares gains as Fed holds rates, forecasts slower growth

(Reuters) - The dollar pared gains against the euro on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady as expected, but indicated policymakers expect to cut borrowing costs by half a percentage point by the end of this year.

Policymakers projected likely two quarter-point interest-rate cuts later this year, the same median forecast as three months ago, even as they forecast slower economic growth and higher inflation.

Get the latest news and expert analysis about the state of the global economy with the Reuters Econ World newsletter. Sign up here.

 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said uncertainty at present is "unusually elevated" as he described the challenges central bank officials faced in arriving at new projections for the economic outlook amid the wave of new policy maneuvers by the Trump administration.

Taking stock of the Trump administration's rollout of tariffs, Fed officials actually marked up their outlook for inflation this year, with their preferred measure of price increases expected to end the year at 2.7% versus the 2.5% pace anticipated in December. The Fed targets inflation at 2%.

 

The Fed also said it will slow the ongoing drawdown of its balance sheet, known as quantitative tightening.

"The dollar's moved off of this is pretty calm, all things considered," Helen Given, director of trading at Monex USA, said.

"I think that has to do with the fact that no one really wants to get caught on the wrong side of any trade," Given said.

The buck has sold off about 6% against the euro since mid-January as investors grew concerned over the economic fallout of President Donald Trump's policies on trade and tariffs.

While the U.S. currency has steadied in recent sessions, the near-term outlook for the currency hinges on the strength of incoming economic data.

 

"I think that we're probably going to be kind of floating around here until we get some firm first-quarter GDP data ... that's going to be a really big tell for traders as to whether this economic weakness that everyone's worried about, it's fully materializing," Given said.

Against the dollar, the euro was down 0.3% to $1.0912 after slipping as low as $1.0860, earlier in the session.

Futures on the federal funds rate, which measures the cost of unsecured overnight loans between banks, priced in 64 basis points of easing this year, or about two rate reductions, in line with what the Federal Reserve projected in its rate forecasts released on Wednesday.

"A lot will depend on how the inflation-versus-growth trade-off develops—growth may continue weakening, and the Fed may need to cut rates more forcefully than expected," Matthias Scheiber, head of the multi-asset solutions team at Allspring Global Investments in London.

 

The buck found some support earlier in the day from a brief jump in volatility after authorities detained Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival, knocking the lira by about 12% to a record low.

 

The Turkish lira plunged amid political turmoil in Turkey. Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was detained on charges of corruption and aiding a terrorist group in what the main opposition party called "a coup against our next president."

The dollar was last up 3.6% against the lira at 37.97, after rising to a record high of 42, earlier in the session.

The U.S. currency was 0.3% lower against the Japanese yen at 148.85, after the Bank of Japan held interest rates steady earlier on Wednesday.

 

The widely expected BOJ decision underscored policymakers' preference to spend more time gauging how mounting global economic risks from higher U.S. tariffs could affect Japan's fragile recovery.

"For now, the BOJ appears content to bide its time, having last raised rates two months ago. With inflation trends broadly tracking the bank’s forecasts, the consensus among economists is that the next move may not come until June or July," Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst at City Index, said in a note.

 

Meanwhile, bitcoin , the world's largest cryptocurrency by market cap, rose 4.6% to $85,802.

 

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab.

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

Gold export earnings rise 8% amid global turbulence

 

HARARE – Zimbabwe’s gold export receipts for the first two months of the year, increased 8.69% to US$240.12 million, up from US$220.92 million recorded in the same period last year.

 

Zimbabwe's increased gold export earnings are due to the sustained rise in gold prices, driven by investors seeking safe-haven assets during periods of instability. Escalating tensions in the Middle East, coupled with anxieties about potential trade conflicts, have pushed gold prices to unprecedented levels, reaching approximately $3,039.

 

The recent surge in global uncertainty stems from several key events. Israeli military actions against Hamas in Gaza, resulting in over 400 casualties, have intensified regional volatility. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu justified the strikes by citing Hamas's refusal to extend a ceasefire that had been in place since January.

 

Simultaneously, US President Trump's threats to implement new tariffs, scheduled for April 2nd, are compounding trade war concerns. These potential tariffs build upon existing 25% duties on steel and aluminium, implemented in February, further escalating fears of a global trade dispute.

 

These factors have significantly heightened the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

 

Market observers foresee a continued upward trajectory for gold, with some projections suggesting a rise to $3,100 per ounce. Furthermore, analysts at Macquarie Group anticipate a dramatic surge to a record $3,500 per ounce by the third quarter of this year.

 

The prevailing high gold prices present a significant opportunity for Zimbabwe's gold mining sector. Companies like Kuvimba Mining House are poised to capitalize on this favourable market. They've allocated a substantial US$60 million for capital expenditures, focusing on exploration, facility improvements, and equipment upgrades across their operations. This strategic investment aims to bolster their long-term production capabilities, allowing them to fully benefit from the current gold price surge.

 

February saw gold export earnings reach US$117,003,958.81, an increase from the US$108,984,276.10 recorded in February of the previous year. However, when comparing February's figures to January's, which hit US$123,114,716.18, a slight decrease is observed.

 

This month-over-month drop in gold export revenue, from January to February, can be traced back to a reduction in gold deliveries. This decrease is largely attributed to challenging weather conditions, specifically heavy rainfall, which negatively impacted the operations of small-scale miners.

 

Overall gold purchases fell to 2,568.25 kilograms, representing an 18.1% decline from January’s 3,134.35 kilograms. Despite this monthly decline, this amount is still a 39% increase when compared to the same period of the previous year.

 

The primary cause of this decrease was a substantial reduction in output from small-scale miners. Their production dropped by 27.6%, from 2,265.55 kilograms in January to 1,640.31 kilograms in February. The intense rainfall during this period significantly disrupted mining activities, particularly for these smaller operators, who are often less equipped to handle adverse weather.

 

Meanwhile, the Zimbabwe Miners Federation has set a gold production target of 40 tonnes for small-scale miners this year, indicating both the challenges and opportunities within the sector.

 

ZMF CEO Wellington Takavarasha told FinX that one of the foremost challenges faced by small-scale miners is limited access to funding. Unlike larger mining operations, small-scale miners often lack the credit history and collateral needed to secure loans from financial institutions. As a result, they find it difficult to acquire essential equipment and machinery that can enhance productivity. Furthermore, when financing is available, the high interest rates associated with these loans can impose an additional burden, making repayment unmanageable.

 

In addition to financial barriers, small-scale miners often encounter significant technical challenges. Many operate without the necessary technical expertise or training, which can lead to unsafe and inefficient mining practices.

 

The regulatory environment poses another critical challenge for small-scale miners. In many regions, existing mining laws and regulations do not adequately accommodate artisanal and small-scale mining operations. For instance, the Mines and Minerals Act may not provide a supportive framework for small-scale miners, leading to unclear legal status and compliance issues. Without a regulatory structure that recognises and addresses the unique needs of small-scale mining, these miners risk facing legal challenges that could shut down their operations or limit their ability to grow.-finx

 

 

 

 

 


 

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

 


Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

Counters trading under cautionary

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 	

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

 

 	

Padenga

Econet

RTG

 

 	

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

 

 	

ZBFH

 

 

 

 	

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

 

 

 Invest Cellphone:            +263 71 944 1674 | +27 79 993 5557 

Email:               bulls at bullszimbabwe.com

Website:            www.bullszimbabwe.com 

Blog:                 www.bullszimbabwe.com/blog

Twitter (X):        @bullsbears2010

LinkedIn:           Bulls n Bears Zimbabwe

Facebook:          www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe

Skype:         Bulls.Bears 



 

 

 	

 

 

 	

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

 

 	

 

 

 	


 (c) 2025 Web: www.bullszimbabwe.com Email: bulls at bullszimbabwe.com Tel: +27 79 993 5557 | +263 71 944 1674

 

 	

 

 

 	
							

 

 

 

 

 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20250320/5566f399/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image001.png
Type: image/png
Size: 34378 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20250320/5566f399/attachment-0001.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image002.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 29359 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20250320/5566f399/attachment-0002.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image003.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 37760 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20250320/5566f399/attachment-0003.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: oledata.mso
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 130904 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20250320/5566f399/attachment-0001.obj>