Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 20 March 2025

Fri Mar 21 04:12:06 CAT 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 20 March 2025

ZSE commentary

ZSE  rebounds...

The ZSE market rebounded in the penultimate session of the week as the primary All Share Index put on 0.05% to 209.20pts while, the Mid Cap Index added 0.89% to 238.96pts. The Blue Chip Index eased 0.21% to 207.71pts as the Agriculture Index fell 0.16% to 181.09pts. Nampak headlined the top performers of the day on a 14.95% jump to $1.0000, followed by brick maker Willdale that surged 13.96% to $0.0400. Banking group ZBFH charged 8.86% to close at $4.3000 while, milk processor Dairibord went up 5.73% to $1.8000. Seed producer SeedCo Limited capped the top five performers of the day on a 4.58% to end the day pegged at $4.3000. Trading in the negative territory was TSL that dropped 14.44% to $1.5400, trailed by retailer OKZim that slipped 5.33% to $0.4716. ART tumbled 2.89% to settle at $0.3399 while, Star Africa trimmed 2.77% to$0.0400. Banking group CBZ Holdings completed the top five fallers of the day on a 2.24% decline to settle at $6.8429 .

Activity aggregates faltered in the session as volumes traded fell 89.82% to 3.45m shares while, turnover shed 48.29% to $10.54m. Top  volume  drivers  of the  day were  Star Africa {33.23%), Proplastics (30.23%), Delta {15.72%) and Nampak (7.36%). Delta and Proplastics were the top value drivers of the day as they contributed 79.52% and 9.89% respectively. Cass Saddle ETF was stable at $0.0900 on 2,200 units while, the Datvest ETF traded  18,000 units at an unchanged price of

$0.0300. Revitus REIT dropped 15.00% to $0.5100 while, Tigere REIT firmed up 3.88% to end the day pegged at $1.2492 after 2,822 units exchanged hands in the session.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

South Africa

South African rand weakens as interest rate held steady as expected

(Reuters) – South Africa’s rand remained on the back foot on Thursday after the country’s central bank left its main interest rate unchanged as expected.

At 1352 GMT, the rand traded at 18.22 against the dollar, about 0.5% weaker than its previous close.

The dollar last traded up about 0.7% against a basket of other currencies as markets digested the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates and lower the nation’s growth forecast on Wednesday.

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) paused its rate-cutting cycle, keeping the repo rate at 7.50%, as risks stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump’s global trade war and the country’s deadlocked national budget overshadowed its success in keeping inflation low.

“Some policy adjustments by major central banks are still expected this year, but rates are likely to remain high for longer, given new inflation risks,” central bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago told a press conference.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the central bank to hold rates steady.

On the stock market, the Top-40 index was last trading around 0.8% lower.

South Africa’s benchmark 2030 government bond was slightly stronger, with the yield down 3.5 basis points at 9.05%.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Dollar rises as Fed sees no rush to cut rates

(Reuters) - The dollar appreciated broadly on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve indicated it was in no rush to cut interest rates further this year due to uncertainties around U.S. tariffs.

The Swiss franc weakened after the Swiss National Bank lowered its policy rate to 0.25%, while the Swedish krona was soft after its central bank maintained its interest rate.

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The euro was 0.46% lower against the dollar at $1.0852 after U.S. policymakers, on Wednesday, held interest rates steady and signaled two quarter-point interest rate cuts for later this year, the same median forecast as three months ago.

"We're not going to be in any hurry to move," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said.

Powell's comments and the Fed statement underscored the challenge faced by policymakers as they navigate President Donald Trump's plans to levy duties on imports from U.S. trading partners and the impact on the economy.

Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased slightly last week, suggesting the labor market remained stable in March.

Recent U.S. data have helped temper worries over slowing U.S. growth that prompted the dollar to sag as much as 7% against the euro since mid-January, Jayati Bharadwaj, a global FX strategist at TD Securities, said.

"A lot of the bad news was already priced in, but none of the hard data is collapsing the way markets were fearing it would, and even the Fed is not indicating to you that they're in a hurry to ease rates again," she said.

"All of that is leading markets to reassess some of the bearishness that they have been pricing into the dollar," Bharadwaj, who expects the dollar to strengthen in the near term, said.

Traders are pricing in about 63 basis points of Fed easing this year, LSEG data showed.

With President Donald Trump still expected to implement new reciprocal tariff rates against major trading partners on April 2, investors were skittish about pressing bearish bets on the dollar.

On Thursday, strategists at Morgan Stanley recommended investors close their long EUR/USD and GBP/USD positions ahead of the April 2 deadline.

"We think that it is better to consider re-entering USD shorts at more attractive levels rather than holding the positions here," they wrote in a note.

EUROPE'S CENTRAL BANK BONANZA

The dollar's broad strength weighed on the pound though the British currency pared some losses briefly after the Bank of England held interest rates at 4.5% and warned against assumptions that they would be cut over its next few meetings as it grappled with deep uncertainty hanging over the British and world economies.

With UK inflation stuck firmly above its 2% target, the BoE has cut borrowing costs by less than the European Central Bank and the Fed since last summer, contributing to the country's sluggish growth rate.

Sterling had earlier risen to a more than four-month high of $1.3015 in early Asian hours before retreating to trade down 0.3% on the day at $1.29665.

In a busy day for central banks, the Swiss franc fell 0.5% against the dollar after the Swiss National Bank cut its main interest rate to just above zero and flagged increased uncertainty over the global impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies.

Sweden's central bank meanwhile kept its policy rate at 2.25%, as expected, pushing the krona 0.2% lower against the dollar .

The yen was a shade weaker at 148.79 per dollar, a day after the Bank of Japan held rates and warned of heightening global economic uncertainty, suggesting the timing of further hikes will depend on the fallout from U.S. tariffs.

Chart description The dot plot shows the policy rates of the G10 central banks on March 1, 2024 and March 20, 2025.

The Australian dollar �஀t;AUD=D3⪐ was 0.9% lower at $0.6303 after Australian employment unexpectedly fell in February, ending a strong run of impressive gains, as the red-hot labor market loosened a little, although the jobless rate remained steady.

The New Zealand dollar dropped 0.9% to $0.5758 even as data showed the economy crawled out of a recession and grew at a faster-than-expected pace of 0.7% last quarter, although underlying details were soft.

Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market cap, was down about 1.5% on the day at $84,056.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Gold price struggles to rally after Fed call, geopolitical risks linger

Gold price retreats on Thursday as bulls take a breather following the Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest monetary policy decision and an escalation of hostilities in the Middle East. The XAU/USD trades at $3,042, down over 0.19%.

Market sentiment turned negative, while the Greenback stages a recovery as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks a basket of six currencies against the buck.

Gold traders failed to drive prices higher, even though the Fed held rates unchanged at the 4.25%–4.50% range for the second consecutive meeting. Officials added that they will slow down the pace of quantitative tightening (QT).

Fed policymakers acknowledged that the jobs market remains solid but added that prices remain high. Therefore, they emphasized they would monitor risks for both sides of the dual mandate.

They also updated their projections about interest rates, economic growth, the Unemployment rate and inflation. Policymakers foresee two rate cuts in 2025, revising the economy downward, and project inflation ticking higher alongside the Unemployment Rate.

Traders are also digesting Fed Chair Powell's neutral and patient stance. He said that “uncertainty around the (economic) outlook has increased,” adding that some tariff inflation has been passed on to consumers. Powell commented, "Our current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risk and uncertainties we face.”

Powell added that some of Trump’s policies weighed on growth and increased prices.

In Gaza, Israel airstrikes continued with at least 91 Palestinians killed and dozens wounded, according to Reuters.

Daily digest market movers: Gold price poised to extend rally amid steady real yields

The US 10-year T-note yield recovers and falls one basis point to 4.183%. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, rises 0.34% to 103.80.

US real yields, as measured by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield that correlates inversely to Gold prices, are almost flat at 1.904%.

The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) revealed that Fed officials anticipate two rate cuts in 2025, keeping the fed funds rate forecast at 3.9%, unchanged from December’s projections. The PCE Price Index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — and the Unemployment Rate were revised higher, while GDP growth is now projected to fall below 2%, signaling a slowdown linked to President Donald Trump’s trade policies.

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

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