Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 15 October 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 15  October 2025

 

 	



 

 	


ZSE commentary

 

ZSE seesaws...

 

The market continued with its upswings and downswings, recording marginal gains in the session under review. The All - Share Index edged up 0.51% to 200.86pts while, the ZSE TopTen Index rose 0.05% to 197.65pts. The ZSE Agriculture Index added 0.07% to 172.15pts as the Mid Cap Index grew 2.27% to end at 232.27pts. Retailer OK Zimbabwe surged 11.99% to settle at $0.2084 while, telecoms giant Econet gained 2.31% to $4.2539, having traded an intraday high of $4.5000. Packaging group Nampak went up 1.44% to $0.6000 while, SeedCo Limited improved 1.08% to $3.3000. Star Africa capped the top five winners of the day on a 0.40% rise that took it to $0.0343.

 

Trading in the negative territory was FML that dropped a further 14.83% to $1.5999 as ZSE Holdings declined 14.61% to $1.5200. Tea company Tanganda let go 1.25% to $0.7900 as TN Cybertech slipped 0.50% to $0.0995. Agriculture concern Ariston trimmed 0.35% to $0.0274 as it capped the top fivelosers of the day.

 

Nine counters recorded gains against eight that faltered to see the market close with a positive breadth of one. Volume of shares traded ballooned 66.94% to 2.59m while, turnover jumped 182.46% to $3.86m. Top volume drivers of the day were OKZIM (34.45%), TSL (23.32%) and TN (21.27%). Top value leaders of the day were TSL, Econet and AFDIS that claimed a combined 77.80%. Foreigners were net sellers in AFDIS and TSL as sales amounted to $687,9\10.00. The Tigere REIT garnered 12.69% to $1.8933 on 32,605 units. No trades were recorded on the ETF section.-efesecrities

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

 

South Africa

 

The rand should be R7 to the dollar

 

South African Reserve Bank (SARB) Governor Lesetja Kganyago says the rand is incredibly undervalued, with studies showing that the rand should be around R7 to the dollar. 

 

Speaking before the Kgalema Motlanthe Foundation Drakensberg Inclusive Growth Forum, Kganyago highlighted that the rand has depreciated over the past two decades. 

 

Although the governor highlighted the Mundell−Fleming framework, which suggests that currency depreciation should lead to growth, the rand has weakened over the last 10 years, while the economy has weakened. 

 

“Indeed, back in the late 2000s, it was often argued that South Africa’s real exchange rate was too strong and too volatile. This indicator has since become significantly weaker and less volatile.” 

 

“If you consider indicators of purchasing power parity, such as the simple Big Mac Index, you see that for the rand to have the same buying power in the US as it does here, the exchange rate would need to be around 50−60% stronger.” 

 

He added that more sophisticated measures of purchasing power parity, which go beyond simply the cost of a Big Mac, suggest that equal buying power would require an exchange rate close to R7 per dollar.

 

This was in reference to the World Bank’s purchasing power parity conversion factors. 

 

While the World Bank noted that the rand should have traded at R7.4 to the dollar last year, the actual exchange rate was R18.3 to the dollar. 

 

The governor explained that the missing growth relationship of the currency may reflect larger developments in the country, in a similar way that a share price reflects the health of a company. 

 

“If a country looks good, investors are impressed, and the currency appreciates. By the same token, if they lose confidence, they sell.” 

 

“When you have good news stories, such as structural reforms, fiscal discipline and effective governance, you get growth, and at the same time you get currency gains.” 

 

“When you have bad news stories, such as state capture, unsustainable debt growth and junk status, growth weakens and the currency follows suit.” 

 

On top of this, he noted that growth also benefits from imports and exports.  

 

He noted that many exporters will still import components, with capital goods for investments also often imported. 

 

“This may help explain why many emerging markets tend to invest more when their currencies are stronger, and this extra investment raises growth,” he said. 

 

“That does not mean you should aim for the strongest exchange rate possible, of course. But it does suggest a balanced approach that also considers the benefits of imports.” 

 

New target

 

Reserve Bank Governor, Lesetja Kganyago

Kganyago added that South Africa has committed to a free-floating exchange rate for 27 years, and that it might be time for the currency to mature to a new stage. 

 

A key driver is the shift towards permanently lower inflation, which the Reserve Bank has publicly pushed for since last year. 

 

South Africa’s current inflation target ranges from 3% to 6%, with the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) instructed to aim for the midpoint of 4.5%. 

 

In July, Kganyago announced that the MPC would deviate from the 4.5% midpoint target and try to keep inflation at around 3%. 

 

Although the MPC tries to reach the target, the Minister of Finance, Enoch Godongwana, has the power to change the target. 

 

Despite initial tensions between the SARB and National Treasury over the move, the two parties are working together to set a new target, with both aggreeing that the current target range is too wide. 

 

“As we have often argued, our inflation rate is out of line with our peers and competitors,” said Kganyago. 

 

“Unfortunately, if you aim for a high inflation rate, you end up raising prices faster than other countries.” 

 

 

 

Nigeria

 

Naira dips third consecutive day to N1,473.29/$

 

The naira dipped for the third consecutive day as it closed trading on Wednesday at N1,473.29/$.

 

>From the start of the week, the Nigerian currency had struggled against the American dollar at the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market, data from the Central Bank of Nigeria indicated.

 

It started the week at 1,457.51/$, weakened to 1,463.23/$ on Tuesday, and dipped by N10.06, or 0.69 per cent, on Wednesday.

 

At the parallel market, the currency closed trading at 1,500.00/$ on Tuesday, according to CardinalStone. However, on Wednesday, it appreciated to close trading at 1,488/$.

 

 

Experts at Cowry Assets Management Limited blamed diminished appetite for the depreciation of the naira.

 

The depreciation comes on the heels of the naira hitting a 10-month high in the past week as it closed trading at 1,455.17/$, the strongest it had been since December 2024.

 

Experts at Cowry Assets Management Limited blamed diminished appetite for the depreciation of the naira.

 

The depreciation comes on the heels of the naira hitting a 10-month high in the past week as it closed trading at 1,455.17/$, the strongest it had been since December 2024.

 

 

The current trading pattern of the naira is a different shift from the projections of analysts who had anticipated that the currency would be stable on the back of interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria and foreign inflows.

 

 

The PUNCH reported that analysts had forecast a positive outlook for the naira; however, Cowry Assets Management Limited, in its weekly report, warned that “rising import demand or weaker dollar inflows could slow further gains. Oil prices may remain under pressure due to higher supply, but any rebound in global demand could offer some support to Nigeria’s external earnings conditions, underpinning optimism for FX market stability; volatility in global oil markets may keep investor sentiment cautious.”

 

The external reserves have continued their steady climb. As of Monday, it stood at $42.63bn, up from $42.59bn on Friday.

 

Meanwhile, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Olayemi Cardoso, at the G24 media briefing on the sidelines of the ongoing IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, said that the naira is now “more competitive” after reforms and currency stabilisation efforts.

 

He said, “We were able to create resilience and buffers against potential shocks. In terms of anchoring expectations, we found that those who followed the Nigerian economy were fairly comfortable,” he said.

 

Cardoso added that the currency’s strength lies in domestic production. “Nigeria is completely restructuring its economy, and a competitive currency is helping drive that transformation,” he added.

 

 

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

Global Markets

 

Dollar drops versus euro and yen amid ongoing US-China trade friction

 

(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell against the euro and yen on Wednesday with market sentiment weakened by the continuing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

 

Traders analyzed comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for cues on upcoming rate cuts amid a U.S. government shutdown, which has hampered the timely release of key data.

 

The dollar weakened 0.39% to 151.24 against the Japanese yen and was down 0.49% to 0.797 against the Swiss franc , on track for the second straight session of losses against both safe-haven currencies.

 

Top U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, blasted China's major expansion of rare earths export controls as a threat to global supply chains.

 

Greer described China's, opens new tab export controls as a complete repudiation of U.S.-Chinese trade agreements over the past six months although he and Bessent stressed that Washington did not want to escalate the conflict. President Donald Trump had threatened to impose tariffs on China last week in retaliation.

 

The Chinese commerce ministry defended the rare-earths controls, pointing to a series of U.S. measures on Chinese goods and companies and calling it hypocritical.

 

"The market is showing an impressive ability to shrug off trade-related headlines and there's a firm belief that the U.S. and China will find a way to move forward and will make an agreement," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive. "The headlines continued to be inflammatory, including today from Bessent and Greer. But the market saw how Trump quickly de-escalated over the weekend and doesn't yet believe he wants a real fight."

 

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.32% to 98.72, on track for the second consecutive session of losses.

 

The Fed's Beige Book showed that U.S. economic activity was little changed and employment was largely stable in recent weeks, although there were emerging signs of weakness including more layoffs and middle- and lower-income households pulling back on spending.

 

Powell, in a speech on Tuesday, left the door open to rate cuts by saying the U.S. labor market remained mired in low-hiring, low-firing doldrums. He said the absence of official economic data due to the government shutdown has not prevented policymakers from being able to assess the economic outlook, at least for now.

 

Markets are currently priced for a quarter-point cut at the October 28-29 Fed gathering and another at the following meeting in December, followed by three more cuts next year, according to LSEG data.

 

The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 1.6 basis points to 4.038%. Wall Street stocks finished mostly higher as companies continued to report strong results as the quarterly earnings season kicked off.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), opens new tab fell 0.04%, the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab rose 0.40% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), opens new tab rose 0.66%.

 

The euro rose 0.35% to $1.1646 after gaining 0.3% in the previous session, support.

 

 

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

Commodities

 

Gold price surges above $4,200 for new record

Gold scaled another all-time high on Wednesday, surpassing the $4,200-per-ounce mark for the first time, as US rate cut expectations and geopolitical jitters continue to drive up demand for the safe-haven metal.

 

Spot gold advanced as much as 1.6% to $4,217.95 per ounce, surpassing its previous record high from earlier this week. US gold futures also shot up 1.6% to $4,235.80 an ounce in New York.

 

Gold has been trending up in recent weeks amid expectations that the US Federal Reserve will deliver another interest rate cut this month. Since August, the month leading up to the Fed’s September cut, bullion has risen by more than a quarter.

 

Over recent sessions, the yellow metal has gained further momentum as a souring relationship between the US and China once again alarmed investors, elevating the appeal of safe havens such as gold.

 

“With US-China trade tensions being reignited in the last few days, investors have even more reason to hedge their long equity bets by diversifying into gold,” Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at City Index and FOREX.com, told Reuters.

 

“With the $5,000 handle now just $800 away, I wouldn’t bet against gold getting there eventually,” Razaqzada said, adding that a short-term correction is likely to shake out weaker hands and attract fresh dip buyers.

 

Meanwhile, the market continues to monitor the ongoing US government shutdown, which has halted official data and may cloud policymakers’ outlook abroad. On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a dovish tone, stating that the US labour market remained mired in “low-hiring, low-firing doldrums.”

 

Traders are currently pricing in a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in October with a 98% probability, followed by another cut in December, which is fully priced in at 100%, according to Reuters.

 

With Wednesday’s gains, gold has now risen 58% this year, driven by a confluence of factors including geopolitical tensions, rate cut bets, central bank buying, de-dollarization and strong ETF inflows.

 

(With files from Reuters)

 

 


 

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

 


Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

Counters trading under cautionary

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 	

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

 

 	

Padenga

Econet

RTG

 

 	

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

 

 	

ZBFH

 

 

 

 	

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

 

 

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

 

 	

 

 

 	


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