Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 03 August 2018

Fri Aug 3 11:04:25 CAT 2018

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Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 03 August 2018

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*  South African private sector activity shrinks in July for first time in 6
months: PMI

*  Kenya private sector activity expands at a slower pace in July -PMI

*  Packaging group Mondi reports 25 pct rise in H1 underlying profit

*  AngloGold to swing to H1 profit on higher output, cost reductions

*  Bank of England raises UK interest rates

*  Carney: No-deal Brexit 'highly undesirable'

*  Toyota surprises with 7.2% jump in quarterly profits

*  Amazon UK tax payment falls to £1.7m

*  Apple is first public company worth $1 trillion

*  RBS to pay first dividend in 10 years

*  Firms being 'left in the dark' on Brexit

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

South African private sector activity shrinks in July for first time in 6
months: PMI

JOHANNESBURG - (Reuters) - South African private-sector activity contracted
for the first time in six months in July as output and new orders fell and
firms struggled with slack demand and widespread work stoppages over wages,
a survey showed on Friday.

The Standard Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by Markit, fell
to 49.3 in July from 50.9 in June, the first time since January that the
indicator slipped below the 50 mark separating expansion from contraction.

All five sub-indices in the survey were in contraction territory, with
output and new orders taking the biggest hits.

Companies reported a decline in the volume of new orders from both domestic
and foreign customers as well as an uptick in input prices.

Since the February election of Cyril Ramaphosa as president on a pledge to
reform the economy, factory activity had crawled into expansionary territory
as business and consumer confidence climbed, spurring a rally in the
currency which kept inflation in check.

Sentiment however has since retreated as economic constraints resurfaced.

A stalemate over wage increases at state power utility Eskom, which supplies
90 percent of the country’s electricity, has led to the first controlled
power cuts since 2015.

There have also been wage strikes across the transport sector, at numerous
mining operations, in the retail industry as well as stoppages by public
sector unions.

Standard Bank, which conducts the survey, said it expected the decline in
activity to be temporary.

“Though somewhat cooler, consumer sentiment was still upbeat in 2Q18. Also,
inflation is still benign, and interest rates will likely be steady and
credit growth reasonable. This should support domestic demand,” said Thanda
Sithole, an economist at the bank.

- Detailed PMI data are only available under licence from IHS Markit and
customers need to apply for a licence.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Kenya private sector activity expands at a slower pace in July -PMI

NAIROBI, Aug 3 (Reuters) - Kenya’s private sector activity expanded at a
slower pace in July as growth in output and new orders lost steam, a survey
showed on Friday.

The Markit Stanbic Bank Kenya Purchasing Managers’ Index(PMI) for
manufacturing and services fell to 53.6 in July from 55.0 in June. A reading
above 50 marks growth.

“Kenya’s private sector activity continued to expand although the pace of
acceleration was moderating, but there is no cause for alarm,” said Jibran
Qureishi, economist for East Africa at Stanbic Bank.

“The health of the private sector remains sound and the decline in the PMI
in July is still above the historical average since data collection began.”

The survey showed firms took on staff at a slower pace during the period
while facing the fastest rise in costs of materials since March this year.

Kenyan economic activity has picked up after political unrest and drought
cut growth last year to its lowest level in more than five years, and the
economy is forecast to expand by 5.8 percent this year from 4.9 percent in
2017.

- Detailed PMI data are only available under licence from IHS Markit and
customers need to apply for a licence.

Packaging group Mondi reports 25 pct rise in H1 underlying profit

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Packaging and paper group Mondi, reported a 25
percent increase in half-year underlying profit, benefiting from higher
average selling prices, good demand across its packaging businesses and
profit improvement initiatives across the group.

Underlying operating profit rose to 630 million euros ($729.98 million) in
the six-months ended June, up from 503 million euros earlier, Mondi said in
a statement on Friday.

The group, which is listed in London and Johannesburg, declared an interim
dividend of 21.45 euro cents per share, up 12 percent.

($1 = 0.8630 euros)

AngloGold to swing to H1 profit on higher output, cost reductions

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - AngloGold Ashanti said it will swing to a
first-half profit due to increased production and lower retrenchment costs.

The South African gold miner, which is due to report first-half results on
Aug. 20, said in a preliminary estimate on Thursday that it expected
headline earnings of between $91 million and $108 million for January-June,
with headline earnings per share of between 22 cents and 26 cents.

That compares to a headline loss and headline loss per share for the same
period last year of $89 million and 22 cents, respectively.

The turnaround in performance was also due to the absence of once-off,
non-cash settlement costs for silicosis class action claims.

Anglo said production from retained operations increased by 4 percent in the
first half to 1.578 million ounces from 1.517 million ounces a year earlier.

“This is due to strong production improvements from Sunrise Dam, Kibali,
Iduapriem, Mponeng and Tropicana,” it said in a statement.

Bank of England raises UK interest rates

The Bank of England has raised the interest rate for only the second time in
a decade.

The rate has risen by a quarter of a percentage point, from 0.5% to 0.75% -
the highest level since March 2009.

While the decision means that the 3.5 million people with variable or
tracker mortgages will pay more, the rise will be welcomed by savers.

Mark Carney, the Bank's governor, said there would be further "gradual" and
"limited" rate rises to come.

Interest rates: Your questions answered

What an interest rate rise means for you

The interest rate rise is all about your wages

Savers should not expect too much from a rate rise

Five things we learned from the Bank of England

Email haveyoursay at bbc.co.uk with your stories

Some business groups questioned the decision to raise the rate now ahead of
the UK agreeing a Brexit deal with the European Union.

However, Mr Carney told the BBC that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)
would cut rates if needed.

"There are a variety of scenarios that can happen with Brexit 
 but in many
of those scenarios interest rates should be at least at these levels and so
this decision is consistent with that," he said.

"In those scenarios where the interest rate should be lower, well then the
MPC which meets eight times a year would, I'm confident, take the right
decision to adjust interest rates at that time."

Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce, said:
"While a quarter-point rise may have a limited long-term financial impact on
most businesses, it risks undermining confidence at a time of significant
political and economic uncertainty."

Why are they doing this now?

The Bank's MPC had been expected to raise interest rates in May, but held
fire because the economy went through a weak patch at the start of the year
- partly because of the harsh weather conditions, dubbed the Beast from the
East.

The Bank is now confident that the dip was temporary and that economic
growth will recover from the 0.2% rate seen in the first quarter, to 0.4% in
the second quarter and maintain that pace later in the year.

The Bank is sticking to previous guidance that there will be further
interest rate rises, but Mr Carney said these will be "limited and gradual".

"Rates can be expected to rise gradually. Policy needs to walk, not run, to
stand still," he said.

However, the Institute of Directors said the Bank had "jumped the gun" by
raising the rate now.

It said: "The rise threatens to dampen consumer and business confidence at
an already fragile time.

"Growth has remained subdued, and the recent partial rebound is the least
that could be expected after the lack of progress in the year's first
quarter."

Five interest rate facts

More than 3.5 million residential mortgages are on a variable or tracker
rate

The average standard variable rate mortgage is 4.72%

On a £150,000 variable mortgage, a rise to 0.75% is likely to increase the
annual cost by £224

A Bank rate rise does not guarantee the equivalent increase in interest paid
to savers. Half did not move after the last rate rise

No easy access savings account at a major High Street bank pays interest of
more than 0.5%

The Bank said a pick-up in the economy is being supported by household
spending, which the Bank said had been "erratic" earlier in the year.

It is also believes the recent series of store closures on the High Street
does not reflect a lack of appetite for shopping.

In its Quarterly Inflation Report, the Bank said: "Although in the past year
the number of retail closures have increased and retail footfall has fallen,
contacts of the Bank's agents suggest that mainly reflects shifts in
consumer demand to online stores and from goods to services."

Commenting on Brexit, Mr Carney said the Monetary Policy Committee
"recognises that the economic outlook could be influenced significantly by
the response of households, businesses and financial markets to developments
related to the process of EU withdrawal".

He said: "Negotiations are now entering a critical period, with the UK and
EU both seeking an agreement by the end of the year.

"Although the range of potential outcomes is wide, what matters for monetary
policy is how people react to developments."

He said British households so far have been "resilient - but not indifferent
- to Brexit news".

What is the outlook?

The Bank sees continuing "modest" economic growth of 1.4% this year and an
increase to 1.8% next year.

The unemployment rate is expected to fall further from 4.2% and wage growth
is expected to pick up.

Inflation is forecast to fall back to 2% - the Bank of England's target - by
2020.

The Bank sees some clouds on the economic horizon.

It said the outlook for the global economy was a bit gloomier, partly owing
to the trade war between the US and China which has seen tariffs imposed on
a range of goods.

It also highlighted a slowdown in the UK housing market this year, which has
been "concentrated in London", where mortgage completions are down 12% on
2016.

But the Bank thinks that weakness might just be specific to the capital and
may not say much about the prospects for the UK housing market as a whole.

What happens next?

The Bank is sticking to its guidance that interest rates will continue to
head higher, but only at gradual pace and to a limited extent.

The financial markets have taken this on board and are forecasting one, and
perhaps two, rises of 0.25% before 2020.

It also seems unlikely the UK will return to interest rates of 5% and above.
In its inflation report ,the Bank published what it thinks is the natural
interest rate for the UK economy.

It puts that at between 2% and 3%.

That relatively low rate is partly due to an ageing population.

Older people tend to save more and in the future, that will provide a
greater pool of savings for lending to households and industry and help
prevent the economy from overheating.--BBC

Carney: No-deal Brexit 'highly undesirable'

The possibility of a no-deal Brexit is "uncomfortably high" and "highly
undesirable", Bank of England governor Mark Carney has told the BBC.

Mr Carney said the prospect of the UK leaving the EU without a deal was "a
relatively unlikely possibility, but it is a possibility".

He said it was "absolutely in the interest" of the EU and UK to have a
transition period.

However, the financial system was robust and could withstand shocks.

"We have made sure that banks have the capital, the liquidity that they need
and we have the contingency plans in place, " he said.

Mr Carney said that if a no-deal Brexit were to happen, it would mean a
disruption to trade and a disruption to the level of economic activity, as
well as higher prices for a period of time.

"Our job in the BoE is to make sure that those things don't happen. It's
relatively unlikely but it is a possibility. We don't want to have people
worrying that they cant get their money out," he told the Today programme.

"We've put the banks through the ringer to make sure that they have the
capital. Whatever the shock could happen from, it could come from a no-deal
Brexit, we've gone through all the risks of a no-deal Brexit."

However, he said that even with liquidity and capital, the banks could not
solve all Brexit-related financial problems.

"There are a few things the EU government has to solve, " he said.

"The UK has taken all the steps, all the secondary legislation it needs to.
The European authorities still have some steps they need to take. We're
having conversations and we expect those to be addressed."--BBC

Toyota surprises with 7.2% jump in quarterly profits

Japanese car giant Toyota has posted a 7.2% jump in quarterly net profits,
beating expectations and surprising analysts.

Net income came to 657.3bn yen ($5.88bn; £4.52bn), up from the 613.0bn yen
recorded in the same period a year earlier.

Many analysts had said they expected Toyota's earnings to be flat.

But strong sales in Asia and some cost reductions on the home front helped
boost the firm's bottom line.

The firm said it sold 2,236,131 vehicles during the period, an increase of
21,020.

"Toyota has been doing very well in parts of Asean (the Association of South
East Asian Nations)," Janet Lewis, head of industrials and transportation in
Asia for the Macquarie Group, told the BBC.

"Particularly in Thailand, where Toyota is having a very strong year. And
that has been supportive, because margins in Asean tend to be very good,"
she said.

Who's the world's biggest carmaker?

Japanese carmakers 'pick Alabama for factory'

US carmakers hit by tariffs disputes

Toyota said its operating income increased from 574.2bn yen to 682.6bn yen -
a jump of 18.87%.

But the firm maintained that its full-year net profit would come in 2.12tn
yen as trade war worries continue.

Earlier this year Toyota said it expected to sell 8.95 million vehicles in
the year to March 2019.

On Friday, however, it revised this to 8.9 million "in consideration of the
latest sales trends worldwide".

Tariff worries

Analysts have warned that potential US tariffs of as much as 25% on imported
cars and car parts could in future hurt Toyota in its biggest market, the
US.

Major carmakers, including Fiat Chrysler, have warned that changes to trade
policies are hurting performance.

General Motors and Ford recently lowered their profit forecasts for 2018,
citing higher steel and aluminium prices caused by existing US tariffs.

But Macquarie Group's Ms Lewis said the impact of the existing tariffs had
so far been minimal.

"At this moment, the only tariffs are some fairly modest tariffs on
aluminium and on steel," she said.

"And that's raised some of the market prices in the US, [but] they've had a
very, very modest impact.

"The bigger materials impact has just been a general materials price
increase - like resins."

Toyota to invest £240m in UK operations

Toyota to build new Auris in UK

Ms Lewis warned, however, that any major changes to the North America Free
Trade Agreement (Nafta) could have a much more damaging affect than tariffs
on carmakers.

"Toyota and other car makers have a very strong presence in North America,
which of course includes Canada and Mexico, and so carmakers could be
devastated by substantial changes to Nafta," she said.

Toyota, more than the other automakers, would also be exposed if there were
tariffs just on Japan, Ms Lewis explained, "because it does export a fair
amount from Japan - but major changes to Nafta would hurt even more".

In China, where Toyota had been lagging Honda and Nissan over the last
couple of years, Ms Lewis said Toyota was now doing "extremely well".

"The new Camry and the expansion of its production capacity in the China
market is leading to double-digit growth this year," she said.

In May, Toyota posted a record full-year net profit of 2.5 trillion yen
($23bn) on, up 36.2% from a year earlier. Vehicle sales for the year to
March 2018 came to 8,964,394 units.--BBC

Amazon UK tax payment falls to £1.7m

Amazon UK paid £1.7m in UK corporation tax last year, down from £7.4m in
2016, its accounts reveal.

It made an operating profit of almost £80m, up from £48m in 2016.

Its full tax bill is £4.6m, but it has deferred paying the remaining £2.9m.
One reason for the lower tax bill was a rise in share-based payments for
staff, up from £37m in 2016 to £55m last year.

An Amazon UK spokesman said it paid all the tax it was required to "in the
UK and every country where we operate".

"Corporation tax is based on profits, not revenues, and our profits have
remained low given retail is a highly competitive, low-margin business and
our continued heavy investment." he said in a statement.

Amazon UK Services is the division that runs the fulfilment centres which
process, package and post deliveries to UK customers.

It employs more than two-thirds of the 27,000-strong UK workforce.

Turnover for Amazon in the UK jumped from £1.43bn to nearly £1.98bn as the
Seattle-based giant attracted more customers to its online shopping and
entertainment offerings.

Amazon delivers record quarterly profit

How Jeff Bezos took Amazon to the top

Why Amazon's UK tax bill has dropped 50% (2017 analysis)

Earlier this week, Amazon reported record quarterly profits of $2.53bn
(£1.9bn) worldwide for the three months to 30 June.

The profit was about 12 times more than Jeff Bezos's company made during the
same period last year and reflected rising sales and demand for its cloud
services, whereby customer information is stored on remote servers.

Amazon reports its revenues from UK sales through a separate company based
in Luxembourg.

Rebecca McVittie, investment director at Fidelity International, told the
BBC's Today programme it was "indicative of how tax policy hasn't moved on".

"The world has evolved very quickly, technology giants have this hugely
dominant role and popular role with consumers and in many respects, what we
see in the headlines today, I think there should be more reflection on the
need for digital taxation."--BBC

Apple is first public company worth $1 trillion

Apple has become the world's first public company to be worth $1 trillion
(£767bn).

The iPhone maker's market value reached the figure in New York on Thursday
and its shares closed at a new record high of $207.39.

The stock has been rising since Tuesday when it reported better than
expected results for the three months to June.

Apple beat Silicon Valley rivals such as Amazon and Microsoft to become the
first to hit the $1 trillion valuation.

Since the iPhone first went on sale in 2007, Apple shares have soared by
1,100% and have jumped almost a third in the past year.

The rise is even more astonishing - 50,000% - since the company first listed
in 1980. That dwarfs the 2,000% increase for the S&P 500 index over the same
period.

Apple traces its origins to the garage of co-founder Steve Jobs in 1976 and
was initially best known for its Mac personal computers before its
smartphone paved the way for the app economy.

Mr Jobs, who died in 2011 and was succeeded as chief executive by Tim Cook,
oversaw the development of the iPhone, which transformed Apple's fortunes.

In 2006 the company had sales of less than $20bn and posted profits of
almost $2bn.

Last year its sales hit $229bn, with profits of $48.4bn, making it the most
profitable listed US company.

PetroChina was briefly worth about $1.1 trillion after floating in Shanghai
in 2007, although most of its shares were held by the Chinese government. It
is now worth about $220bn.

Despite its $1 trillion price tag, many analysts still do not view Apple's
shares as expensive given that they trade at about 15 times expected
profits, compared with a figure of 82 for Amazon and 25 times for Microsoft.

Also boosting Apple shares in recent months was the company's decision to
set aside $100bn to buy back stock.

It may have been the vision of Steve Jobs that hurtled Apple towards this
milestone, but it was the business acumen of Tim Cook that tipped them over.

While other tech stocks have struggled, Apple has soared ahead. The surge in
its shares has been driven by two key factors.

It is selling fewer iPhones, but by releasing a more expensive version last
year, it is making more money per device.

Apple has also diversified the sources of its profits. It now makes about
$10bn every three months from services such as selling apps, cloud storage
and music streaming.

The firm told investors this week that it expected a very strong end to the
year helped, naturally, by the release of yet another new iPhone.

Stock markets are volatile, and a small but growing threat from Chinese
smartphone makers might eat into Apple's margins in the coming years.

But no matter what your view of the company and its products, Apple devices
have changed the world - and today made financial history as well.--BBC

RBS to pay first dividend in 10 years

Royal Bank of Scotland has seen first-half profits fall, but is on course to
pay its first dividend in 10 years.

The bank said it would be paying 2p a share as an interim dividend as soon
as its $4.9bn (£3.8bn) settlement with the US Department of Justice over
mortgage-backed securities was completed.

The cost of the settlement meant that RBS banked lower profits for the
January-to-June period than in 2017.

Attributable profit was £888m, compared with £939m in 2017.

RBS booked a £1bn charge to deal with the settlement with US regulators,
which was agreed in May. It relates to RBS's mis-selling of the securities
in the run-up to the financial crisis.

The bank had already put aside money to cover the rest of the cost.

It said it expected the deal with the Department of Justice to be finalised
within months, paving the way for the dividend to be paid out.

'More to do'

RBS was bailed out by the government at the height of the financial crisis
and is still 62.4% publicly owned.

Last month, the government lost £2.1bn after selling a tranche of RBS shares
at 271p each, almost half the 502p a share it paid for them in 2008.

Announcing the half-year results, RBS chief executive Ross McEwan said the
bank was pleased with its progress, although the environment was uncertain
and highly competitive.

He added: "We still have a lot more to do to achieve our ambition of being
the best bank for customers in the UK and Republic of Ireland.

"However, with our major legacy issues largely behind us, we are able to
fully focus on closing this gap."

RBS made no new provision to cover the cost of payment protection insurance
(PPI) mis-selling claims. UK banks have set aside tens of billions of pounds
to address what has become the biggest compensation exercise in UK financial
history.

The bank said it had no further comment to make on the activities of its
controversial Global Restructuring Group (GRG), which has been widely
criticised over its treatment of small and medium-sized business customers.

Earlier this week, the Financial Conduct Authority said no action would be
taken against RBS over the issue.--bbc

Firms being 'left in the dark' on Brexit

Companies have been left in the dark over planning for Brexit amid an
"information void", a leading business group has warned.

The Institute of Directors has called on the government to speed up guidance
on what companies should expect if no deal on leaving the EU is reached.

Its survey of 800 business leaders showed fewer than a third had made any
Brexit contingency planning.

Many said they were waiting for clarity about the future EU relationship.

Almost half of respondents did not anticipate drawing up nor implementing
any contingency plans for Brexit, with a similar number not expecting Brexit
to affect their organisation.

Stephen Martin, director-general of the IoD, said it was difficult to blame
companies that had failed to prepare for the UK's departure.

"When it comes to knowing what to plan for and when, firms have been left in
the dark," he said.

"Trade associations like the IoD are doing their best to fill the
information void, but the reality is that many companies feel they can only
make changes once there is tangible information about what they are
adjusting to.

"As long as no deal remains a possibility, it is essential that the
government steps up to the plate and provides advice on preparing for such
an outcome."

Drug makers stockpiling for Brexit

Brexit: All you need to know

The IoD called on ministers to speed up publication of the technical notices
on Brexit. Mr Martin said doing so would remind companies what they needed
to do to prepare for all Brexit eventualities.

"Any transition period must take account of the fact that many businesses
feel they can only adjust once there is clarity about the direction of
travel."

The Institute of Directors is a non-party political organisation founded in
1903 and has about 30,000 members.

They include directors from all industries, as well as the public and
voluntary sectors, and range from the bosses of small start-ups to chief
executives.--BBC 

INVESTORS DIARY 2018

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

NicozDiamond

shares delist from the ZSE

06/07/2018

Zimbabwe

Heroes’ Day

Zimbabwe

13/08/2018

Zimbabwe

Defence Forces Day

Zimbabwe

14/08/2018

The Harare Agricultural Show

The Harare Agricultural Show

The Harare Agricultural Show

August 27- September 1

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of
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been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or
warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All
opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without
notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be
suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth
companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than
the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any
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for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

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