[Bullsn'Bears] Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 10 January 2018
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Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 10 January 2018
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* S.Africa's rand retreats as dollar rebound overshadows local politics
* Amplats reaches deal with S.African tribal leader in community fund row
* Algeria bans imports of cell phones, veg and other goods to curb trade
deficit
* Nigerian stocks cross 40,000 index points to three-year high
* Algeria bans imports of cell phones, veg and other goods to curb trade
deficit
* Angola's kwanza depreciates 10 percent as dollar peg ends
* Congo mining revenues through Sept 2017 rise 9 pct, oil up 70 pct
* South Africa's new vehicle sales down 2.4 percent year/year in December
* South Africa's rand gains on Zuma exit rumours; stocks flat
* Mauritius inflation jumps to 4.2 percent in December
* Global growth back at pre-crisis levels, says World Bank
* Apple: Chinese firm to operate China iCloud accounts
* Is economic struggle driving North Korea to negotiating table?
* Huawei's US smartphone deal collapses
* Toyota and Mazda pick Alabama for $1.6bn US investment - reports
<mailto:info at bulls.co.zw>
S.Africa's rand retreats as dollar rebound overshadows local politics
JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South Africa’s rand was weaker in early trade on
Wednesday, tracking a softer euro and British pound as the previous
session’s brief gains gave way to bearish sentiment that has weighed on the
currency for most of the week.
At 0630 GMT the rand was 0.24 percent weaker at 12.3675 per dollar versus an
overnight close of 12.3375 in New York. While the rand did reach a
two-session best of 12.2775 briefly on Tuesday, gaining around 1 percent on
rumours that President Jacob Zuma has stepped down, it quickly retreated to
above 12.30.
The currency has traded in a narrow range in the week, leaning towards
losses as it retraced the sharp gains in the final weeks of 2017 that saw it
race to 2-1/2 year highs, ignoring a weak local economic outlook to outshine
its EM peers.
Technical and momentum indicators also suggest the unit is due a selloff,
while a rebound in demand for the dollar as lending rates there look set to
rise has weighed on sentiment.
In the short term however the rand could be swayed by political developments
with the ruling African National Congress’s top decision-making today
meeting from today and likely to decide Zuma’s fate.
“The rand is definitely outperforming its peers which means that elastic
band is tightening,” said chief trader at Standard Bank Warrick Butler in a
note to investors.
He added that a political outcome deemed negative by investors could see the
fall as far as 12.80.
Bonds were slightly weaker with the yield on the benchmark government paper
due in 2026 up 1 basis point to 8.595 percent.
Stocks were set to open slightly lower, in line with emerging market
equities, with the futures index of benchmark Top-40 down 0.31 percent.
<http://www.fmrelifeandhealth.co.zw/>
Amplats reaches deal with S.African tribal leader in community fund row
JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - A South African tribal leader has agreed to a more
transparent structure for a 175 million rand ($14 million) community trust
funded by Anglo American Platinum (Amplats), a move that aims to curb unrest
around the firm’s most profitable mine.
The changes relate to the Mapela Trust, which was set up to fund development
projects in communities around Amplats’ Mogalakwena operation, the world’s
largest open-pit platinum mine and the Anglo American unit’s main cash
spinner.
The structure of the fund has proved a flashpoint, with local communities
saying the way cash was spent has not transparent and too much authority was
given to the local chief, known as Kgoshi, to determine where money was
invested.
Protests over two years ago temporarily closed the mine and community
leaders had threatened more action to demand changes.
Lawyers representing local communities told Reuters a deal between Amplats
and the tribal chief had been reached. “There is a significant dilution of
the chief’s power across the board,” Johan Lorenzen, one of the lawyers,
said.
Amplats confirmed this. “We have signed the agreement. The issues have been
resolved,” spokeswoman Mpumi Sithole said.
Under the new structure, four of the Mapela Trust’s nine trustees will be
elected directly by local communities instead of just two that were picked
by the chief to represent them.
The other trustees include an independent chairperson, the Kgoshi, a member
of a traditional council, a member elected by village chiefs and a senior
Amplats representative.
Amplats’ Sithole said the community would elect their representatives before
any cash was allocated to local projects.
Protests over the fund that erupted more than two years ago prompted the
temporary closure of the Mogalakwena mine, leading to the loss of 8,600
ounces of its annual 200,000-plus ounces of production.
Local communities had hired prominent South African human rights lawyer
Richard Spoor to spearhead their case.
Other South African mining companies have also been cutting deals with
tribal leaders who have royal titles and feudal-style control over their
former homelands, often islands of rural poverty where most blacks were
confined under apartheid.
The bulk of the platinum reserves in South Africa, the world’s top producer
of the precious metal, lie in or near these tribal areas.
Impala Platinum and Lonmin have also had operations disrupted by community
protests linked to deals with tribal chiefs.
Social and labour violence, alongside soaring costs and depressed world
platinum prices, have made two-thirds of South Africa’s platinum operations
unprofitable at current prices, according to the country’s Chamber of Mines.
($1 = 12.3896 rand)
Algeria bans imports of cell phones, veg and other goods to curb trade
deficit
ALGIERS (Reuters) - Algeria has temporarily banned the import of 900
products including cell phones, household appliances and vegetables in a bid
to cut a ballooning import bill following a fall in energy earnings,
according to an official document seen by Reuters.
The OPEC member has been trying to cut spending since crude oil prices
started falling in mid-2014. It relies on oil and gas for 60 percent of the
state budget but earnings from the sector have halved since oil prices
collapsed.
The import ban, which took effect on Sunday, also applies to furniture, all
vegetables except garlic, some meats and fruits, cheeses, chocolates,
pastries, pasta, juice, bottled waters and some building materials. It
replaces an import licence system introduced two years ago.
“The import suspension of those products is limited in time, and will be
lifted gradually with or without maintaining or increasing taxes and other
duties,” the document, drawn up by the trade ministry, said. The document’s
authenticity was confirmed by an official.
The license system, whereby importers had to apply for a licence to buy from
overseas, had shown its limits, a senior official at the trade ministry
said.
Entrepreneurs had dismissed the rules as too bureaucratic, leading to supply
problems as well as higher prices for some products.
The value of Algeria’s imports fell only 2.1 percent in the first 11 months
of 2017 from a year earlier to $42.8 billion, according to official figures.
Under the new ban, the government hopes the import bill will fall to $30
billion this year from a projected $45 billion for all of 2017 and $46.7
billion the previous year.
Oil and gas account for about 95 percent of Algeria’s exports as the
government struggles to boost the non-energy sector. While the oil price has
recently rebounded, it is still below $70 a barrel. Algerian officials have
said it needs to be above $70 to help balance the budget.
To help cut the bill the government raised taxes and customs duties by 30
percent on some of those products from Jan.1 as part of measures aimed at
securing new funding sources for the economy and reforming a subsidy system
that covers almost everything.
Nigerian stocks cross 40,000 index points to three-year high
LAGOS (Reuters) - Nigerian stocks crossed 40,000 points on Tuesday to a new
three-year high as the equity market continued a 2017 rally.
Stocks rose 1.2 percent to a level last seen in October 2014.
Algeria bans imports of cell phones, veg and other goods to curb trade
deficit
ALGIERS (Reuters) - Algeria has temporarily banned the import of 900
products including cell phones, household appliances and vegetables in a bid
to cut a ballooning import bill following a fall in energy earnings,
according to an official document seen by Reuters.
The OPEC member has been trying to cut spending since crude oil prices
started falling in mid-2014. It relies on oil and gas for 60 percent of the
state budget but earnings from the sector have halved since oil prices
collapsed.
The import ban, which took effect on Sunday, also applies to furniture, all
vegetables except garlic, some meats and fruits, cheeses, chocolates,
pastries, pasta, juice, bottled waters and some building materials. It
replaces an import licence system introduced two years ago.
“The import suspension of those products is limited in time, and will be
lifted gradually with or without maintaining or increasing taxes and other
duties,” the document, drawn up by the trade ministry, said. The document’s
authenticity was confirmed by an official.
The license system, whereby importers had to apply for a licence to buy from
overseas, had shown its limits, a senior official at the trade ministry
said.
Entrepreneurs had dismissed the rules as too bureaucratic, leading to supply
problems as well as higher prices for some products.
The value of Algeria’s imports fell only 2.1 percent in the first 11 months
of 2017 from a year earlier to $42.8 billion, according to official figures.
Under the new ban, the government hopes the import bill will fall to $30
billion this year from a projected $45 billion for all of 2017 and $46.7
billion the previous year.
Oil and gas account for about 95 percent of Algeria’s exports as the
government struggles to boost the non-energy sector. While the oil price has
recently rebounded, it is still below $70 a barrel. Algerian officials have
said it needs to be above $70 to help balance the budget.
To help cut the bill the government raised taxes and customs duties by 30
percent on some of those products from Jan.1 as part of measures aimed at
securing new funding sources for the economy and reforming a subsidy system
that covers almost everything.
Angola's kwanza depreciates 10 percent as dollar peg ends
JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Angola’s kwanza depreciated around 10 percent on
Tuesday after the central bank abandoned its dollar peg, and traders said
the currency would weaken further in coming months as it remained far from
market value.
The central bank sold 83.6 million euros ($100 million) at around 221.26 per
euro at its first foreign exchange auction since switching from a dollar peg
to a currency trading band, it said in a notice on its website.
The kwanza was trading at 199 per euro prior to the auction, resulting in a
10 percent devaluation at the sale.
The relaxing of currency rules is the latest in a string of policy and
personnel changes since President Joao Lorenco came to power in Africa’s
number two oil producer in September.
The central bank, which acts in lockstep with government policy, also said
it had changed its benchmark exchange rate so that it is based on the
kwanza/euro price, and other currency levels would be determined by where
they were trading against the euro.
The kwanza was quoted at 185.5 per U.S. dollar, compared with 166/$ prior to
the forex auction, central bank data showed.
This remains way above the 440/$ the kwanza trades on the streets of the
capital Luanda where years of suppressed oil prices have resulted in acute
foreign exchange shortages.
Two traders told Reuters they expected the kwanza to continue to weaken at
future forex auctions, with one predicting the currency would fall another
20 percent in the next three months.
Congo mining revenues through Sept 2017 rise 9 pct, oil up 70 pct
DAKAR (Reuters) - Democratic Republic of Congo, Africa’s top copper
producer, collected $489.2 million in revenues from the mining sector in the
first nine months of last year, up more than 9 percent over the same period
in 2016, the finance ministry said.
In a quarterly report seen by Reuters on Tuesday, the ministry said revenues
from the oil and gas sector rose nearly 71 percent over the same period.
However, oil and gas revenues in the third quarter of the year fell 35
percent, offsetting a strong second quarter.
The two sectors together account for roughly 95 percent of Congo’s export
revenues.
South Africa's new vehicle sales down 2.4 percent year/year in December
JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South Africa’s new vehicle sales fell 2.4 percent
year-on-year to 40,636 units in December, data from the trade and industry
department showed on Tuesday.
Exports however fell 7.1 percent to 17,374 units compared with the same
month a year earlier, the department said.
South Africa's rand gains on Zuma exit rumours; stocks flat
JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South Africa’s rand strengthened on Tuesday,
touching its highest level in two sessions, after rumours that President
Jacob Zuma had stepped down spurred a temporary rally in the currency
against the greenback.
Stocks were little changed with South African-listed Steinhoff shares
weighing on the market.
At 1430 GMT, the rand was up 0.28 percent to 12.3500 against the dollar from
a close of 12.3800 overnight in New York.
The currency reached 12.2775, gaining around 1 percent, earlier in the
session before quickly retreating to above 12.30.
“The Zuma trigger today gives a glimpse of how the rand will react if Zuma
does step down early, although this possibility is increasingly being priced
in,” said Christopher Shiells, a senior emerging market analyst at Informa
Global Markets.
On Sunday parliament said it would meet this week and review its rules
relating to removing the country’s president, after the constitutional court
said on Dec. 29 lawmakers had previously failed to hold Zuma to account,
further fuelling rumours of an early exit for the 75-year-old leader.
The ANC’s top decision makers also meet this week, and Zuma’s recall is
expected to be on the agenda.
The rand has gained around 8 percent as investors bet Deputy President Cyril
Ramaphosa’s election as leader of the ruling African National Congress would
push through business-friendly policies.
“We believe that the rand’s rally is looking overstretched given that South
Africa’s idiosyncratic risks did not end with Ramaphosa’s victory. It is for
this reason that we are maintaining a cautious stance on the rand and
government bonds for 2018,” Shiells said.
Bonds tracked the firmer currency, with yield on the benchmark paper due in
2026 down 0.5 basis points at 8.55 percent.
On the bourse, the benchmark Top-40 index rose 0.1 percent to 53,184 points
and the All-Share index gained 0.13 percent to 60,114 points.
Steinhoff fell 13.02 percent to 7.55 rand after the European Central Bank
said on Monday it had sold its bonds of the scandal-hit company, potentially
suffering a loss of up to 55 percent on that investment.
Further losses came from the bullion sector, which fell 2.46 percent as a
firmer dollar weighed on gold prices..
Gold Fields fell 3.08 percent to 52.00 rand and AngloGold Ashanti was 2.34
percent lower at 128.83 rand.
Mauritius inflation jumps to 4.2 percent in December
PORT LOUIS (Reuters) - Mauritius’ year-on-year inflation rate jumped to 4.2
percent in December from 3.6 percent in the previous month, the statistics
office said on Tuesday.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages and transport costs were the main
contributors to the increase in the consumer price index in December,
statistics Mauritius said in a statement
Global growth back at pre-crisis levels, says World Bank
The World Bank says global economic growth is likely to speed up this year,
after a stronger than expected 2017.
The bank's new forecast is that the world economy will expand by 3.1% this
year before slowing slightly.
It will be the first time since the financial crisis that growth is
operating at its full potential.
However, the report warns the upswing will be short term, with gains in
improving living standards and reducing poverty levels at risk long term.
For the immediate future, the bank sees a reasonably upbeat prospect.
The bank's president Jim Yong Kim said: "The broad-based recovery in global
growth is encouraging".
The forecast is better than what the bank was expecting in its previous
assessment last June.
Among the large economies, the up-rating is especially marked for the
eurozone, though the bank still thinks it will slow somewhat this year, but
by less than its previous forecast.
Long-term growth
Emerging and developing economies will grow slightly faster than last year
in this forecast.
However, the bank is worried about the longer term.
The issue is whether the world economy will have the capacity to maintain
decent growth beyond the current upturn.
Its potential is growing more slowly than it used to, the bank says.
That's the result of years of lacklustre improvements in productivity - the
amount each worker can produce - weak investment and an ageing workforce.
This slowdown in longer term prospects is widespread, the bank says. It
affects countries that account for about two thirds of global economic
activity.
The fact that in the bank's view the economy is close to operating at full
capacity means that there's little scope to stimulate further growth with
the standard policy tools that work by boosting demand for goods and
services - interest rate or tax cuts or increased government spending.
It says government should promote reforms to improve education and health
services and infrastructure - such as roads ports, electricity supplies and
telecommunications networks.
A healthier and better educated workforce is likely to be more productive,
and better infrastructure makes it easier for business to be more productive
too.
The weaker growth of the capacity of the economy is an increasingly
persistent theme in the analysis of official economic agencies such as the
World Bank and the International Monetary Fund
There are some marked variations in the forecasts between different regions.
Africa and India are seen as likely to pick up a bit of speed this year.
China's slowdown, which began at the start of the decade, is predicted to
continue, though with expected growth of 6.4% it's still strong.--BBC
Apple: Chinese firm to operate China iCloud accounts
Apple's iCloud services in mainland China will be operated by a Chinese
company from next month, the tech giant has confirmed.
It has contacted customers based in China, advising them to examine new
terms and conditions.
They include a clause that both Apple and the Chinese firm will have access
to all data stored on iCloud.
Apple said it had made the move to comply with the country's cloud computing
regulations.
iCloud accounts registered outside of China are not affected.
'Strong data privacy'
The Chinese cyber security rules, introduced in July last year, include a
requirement for companies to store all data within China.
The firm, Guizhou on the Cloud Big Data (GCBD), is owned by the Guizhou
provincial government in southern China.
Guizhou is where Apple opened a $1bn (£738m) data centre last year to meet
the regulations.
iCloud data will be transferred from 28 February, Apple said. Customers
living in mainland China who did not want to use iCloud operated by GCBD
were given the option to terminate their account.
This message was sent to iCloud users in China.
Apple said the "partnership" with GCBD would allow it to "improve the speed
and reliability of our iCloud services products while also complying with
newly passed regulations that cloud services be operated by Chinese
companies".
It added that Apple had "strong data privacy and security protections in
place and no backdoors will be created into any of our systems".
However, some on social media have said the step gives Beijing more
opportunity to monitor its citizens and others living in the country.
Users typically use iCloud to store data such as documents and photographs.
The move comes after the company was criticised by some last year for
removing Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) from its App Store in mainland
China - software that allowed users to get round government restrictions on
internet access.
Apple chief executive Tim Cook defended the action at the time, saying he
would "rather not" be doing it, adding he hoped the restrictions would be
"lessened" over time. He added the firm had to comply with Chinese
regulations requiring licenses for VPN sellers.--BBC
Is economic struggle driving North Korea to negotiating table?
US President Donald Trump might believe he's the reason for South and North
Korea coming to the negotiating table.
But does the North's leader Kim Jong Un have a very practical reason to
start showing a different face to enemies across the border?
I reckon so. And that reason is the economy. Here's why:
1) Sanctions are beginning to bite
Exports of goods such as textiles, coal and seafood are the biggest
contributors to North Korea's GDP.
It's difficult to gauge just how much of an impact sanctions have had on the
country's economy, simply because growth rates for the 2017 year have yet to
be estimated.
But exports may have declined by "as much as 30% last year", according to
Byung-Yeon Kim, author of the book "Unveiling the North Korean Economy".
In particular, exports to China - North Korea's biggest trading partner and
the reason many believe Pyongyang is able to survive - are down as much as
35%.
That's a third of the regime's economic growth wiped out. And Professor
Kim's figures don't take into account the latest sanctions that were passed
in December which targets, amongst other things, visas for North Koreans
working overseas.
Remittances from those workers are the second biggest foreign exchange
earner for Pyongyang. And some predict that new sanctions could cut North
Korea's hard currency earnings by up to 80%.
It's all bad news for a regime that in part maintains its legitimacy by
keeping the elite happy with luxury goods bought with foreign currency.
2) The economy is increasingly a priority
You just have to read the text of Kim Jong Un's new year speech to see where
his focus lies.
The word "economy" is peppered through the speech, getting almost as much
play as "nuclear".
Because North Korea can't make foreign currency through exports or foreign
labour anymore, another potential source of hard currency is tourism.
One of the projects Kim Jong Un names explicitly in his speech is "the
Wonsan-Kalma coastal tourist area". And he also expects a "revival of travel
to his country in 2018."
So where are all these tourists going to come from?
Well, as Professor Ruediger Frank at the University of Vienna points out, in
the past it has been South Korea. Between 1999 and 2008, hundreds of
thousands of South Koreans visited the North during a time of less hostile
relations.
Kim Jong Un may be hoping for a similar result in the future, which perhaps
help explain the North's about-face at the negotiating table.
3) Nuclear capabilities have been proven
A series of successful missile tests have demonstrated the regime's ability
to develop nuclear weapons, each one more seemingly more sophisticated than
the last.
And despite the bellicose rhetoric from the US and Donald Trump, North Korea
has managed to consistently conduct its missile tests with no real
retaliation or repercussions, barring sanctions.
So in a sense, Kim Jong Un isn't losing anything by negotiating with South
Korea.
He's developed the weapons he believes he needs, and has what he thinks to
be an effective nuclear deterrent necessary for his regime's survival.
But with a weakening economy what he may now need is help to offset the
effect of sanctions.
In summary...
Let's be realistic. Kim Jong Un isn't desperate yet. Sanctions and a weaker
economy aren't going to have the regime discarding its nuclear goals.
And there are still plenty of ways for it to make money, including via the
latest asset class to hit international markets - cryptocurrencies.
But it IS possible to see why North Korea may be more inclined to head to
the negotiating table - especially with South Korea which has already said
it may consider removing some sanctions temporarily during next month's
Winter Olympics.
So practical concerns may outweigh nuclear needs for now, especially as
North Korea has proved what it has always said it would: that it is a real
nuclear force to be reckoned with.--BBC
Huawei's US smartphone deal collapses
Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei says it has not been able to strike
a deal to sell its new smartphone via a US carrier.
It was widely reported to have been in talks to release its flagship Mate 10
Pro device with AT&T.
But in a letter seen by Reuters, politicians scuppered the deal citing
security concerns.
The snub would be the latest example of a Chinese firm struggling to do
business in the US.
Last week the US blocked the $1.2bn (£880m) sale of money transfer firm
Moneygram to China's Ant Financial, the digital payments arm of Alibaba.
It was the highest profile Chinese deal to be rejected by Washington since
Donald Trump came to power.
'Unique challenges'
Huawei's chief executive officer Richard Yu told an audience at the CES tech
fair in Las Vegas that plans to tie up with a US carrier "unfortunately" had
not come to fruition.
He did not comment on why a deal was not forthcoming, but said it was "a big
loss for consumers, because they don't have the best choice for devices,"
Techcrunch reported.
The Mate 10 Pro - Huawei's main competition against Apple's iPhone and
Samsung's high-end handsets - will still be on sale in the US via sites such
as Amazon.
But deals with carriers are important in the US because the majority of
smartphones are purchased through carriers.
Huawei Mate 10
"The US market presents unique challenges for Huawei, and while the Huawei
Mate 10 Pro will not be sold by US carriers, we remain committed to this
market now and in the future," Huawei said.
According to Reuters, AT&T was pressured to pull out of the deal after 18
members of the US Senate and House intelligence committees signed a letter
to regulators expressing concerns about Chinese companies getting involved
in US telecoms.
The letter notes worries over "Chinese espionage in general, and Huawei's
role in that espionage in particular".
In 2012, a US congressional panel said Chinese telecom firms Huawei and ZTE
should be barred from any mergers and acquisitions because the two firms
posed a security threat to the US.
Huawei is the world's number three smartphone brand behind Apple and
Samsung.--BBC
Toyota and Mazda pick Alabama for $1.6bn US investment - reports
Japanese auto giants Toyota and Mazda have picked Alabama to build their new
$1.6bn (£1.2bn) US factory, according to several reports.
The firms revealed last year that they planned a US joint venture, with
production scheduled to begin in 2021.
At the time, President Donald Trump said the decision was "a great
investment" in US manufacturing.
The choice for the factory location had reportedly been narrowed down to
either Alabama or North Carolina.
One US media outlet reported that North Carolina missed out because it did
not offer the supply-chain logistics the two firms required.
Reality Check: Was Trump right about Japanese cars in US?
Tariff threat
The factory is expected to eventually produce 300,000 vehicles a year and
employ about 4,000 people.
When contacted by the BBC, Toyota refused to confirm that Alabama had been
selected, saying an announcement would be made "in early 2018".
However US media was widely reporting a formal announcement would be made on
Wednesday.
The auto industry is one area where President Trump has been pressuring
overseas companies to do even more manufacturing in the US.
Last year he said Toyota would face hefty tariffs on cars built in Mexico
for the US market if they were made south of the border.
Research conducted by the BBC in November last year found that approximately
53% of cars sold in the US by the top six Japanese carmakers were made
there. The rest were made in Japan, Mexico, Canada, and elsewhere.--BBC
INVESTORS DIARY 2018
Company
Event
Venue
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