Bullish Thoughts: Investments of the Stomach.

Mon Mar 19 17:24:53 CAT 2018

Belated 21st February to you all.

Zimbabwe is an exciting country right now. But first, happy belated 21st
February to you all, yes, Bullish Thoughts means belated Robert Mugabe Youth
Day (kinda feels awkward to have these four words in one sentence though.)
But well, who are we to say no to a "free" holiday...a chance to sit back
and reflect on life and or do those extra stubborn errands that just have a
knack for wanting to be done during regular colonial working hours. That
holiday allowed Bullish Thoughts' mind time to run wild from Blue Roof to
Humanikwa thinking about what could have been. Talking of Humanikwa, given
the sudden shift in bureaucrats' speak of MRT as a man who changed the face
of democracy in Zimbabwe, how about making Humanikwa and more specifically
MRT's homestead a national heritage site while we are still at it. That
would attract some tourists both local and domestic. Maybe Bullish Thoughts
has too much money think. Bullish Thoughts decided to take a trip to Gava,
that traditional food restaurant in direct competition to Kapoto...quite
interesting that these two places are always packed but Gava does leverage
on the closure of Kapoto on Saturdays to maximise sales. He ordered the
famous road runner and rice with peanut butter accompanied by green veggies
and beans. The meal was enjoyable as ever and Bullish Thoughts wouldn't mind
another $11 trip back there. Service was fair considering the number of
patrons on the day.

This eatery seems to be doing well judging by the foot traffic and the
number of years that it has been in operation. If it was a chain spread
across the city or country, it would be a good candidate for adding to a
small private equity fund focusing on specialty cuisines. But then one also
never knows with these restaurants...whoever thought the affable Garise
would be out of tune in such a short space or that Da Eros would be history?

If NC and ED were investable financial assets...

Zimbos are well versed with the issue of "bhiza riri kumhanya" or the more
aptly the horse that's winning these days. Without any doubt, in the
political landscape, NC ndiro bhiza riri kumhanya, never mind that party's
constitutional issues. Bullish Thoughts is just wondering what NC would be
if he were a listed/traceable financial instrument: investment grade or junk
bond, growth stock leveraging on the Youth demographic dividend or the ZSE
Listing Committee would be convening to issue a corrective order and
analysts would be requesting that earnings guidance (bullet trains or $15
billion) be in line with company fundamentals (party's offering). But then
this is politics and it's such promises that give you volumes (read votes).
Or you are one of those who would probably pick this exposure only when it's
a collaterised political security (cps) if there  is such a thing! But then
there is disruptive generation not conforming to basic tenets of what you
are used to and evidence of that is everywhere from Austria to France. The
youthful investors are excited...but do they have the means/funds to build
the portfolio and participate in the desired upside/outcome. A BVR slip is
one of the most priced possessions this year. If this piece of paper could
be transferable in exchange for value, this would have been the most
exciting year... At least it has sentimental value.

What of ED? Been in the system and done that and looking to be a reformist
or (turnaround specialist!) Bullish Thoughts is of the view that this is
what Benjamin Graham and later on Warren Buffet regarded as "cigar butts":
cheap and unloved stocks that had been cast aside like the sticky, mashed
stub of a stogie one might find on the sidewalk...Graham specialized in
spotting these unappetizing remnants that everyone else overlooked (Even
ED's boss overlooked him for quite some time...never mind the reasons).
Graham coaxed them alight and sucked out one last free puff. Graham knew
that a certain number of cigar butts would turn out foul, and thought it
futile to spend time examining any individual cigar butt's quality. The law
of averages said most of them were good for a puff. In the case of ED, we
can take his portfolio (ZPF and Cabinet) as the collection of cigar butts.
Are investors (read voters) going to be buying at a discount (benefit of
doubt really and promises of reforms to date) to that value as the "margin
of safety" or the comfort of a 5 year election cycle will be the backstop
against an underperformance? But then, that margin of safety has never
worked in the past. Well, maybe it's time to play Russian Roulette if that's
the sort of portfolio you are placing your money on.

While thinking about all this, Bullish Thoughts decided to take little Miss
Bullish Thoughts for a lunch outing at Garfunkels Sam Levy's Village Centre.
The occupancy that he witnessed on a Sunday afternoon at Garfunkels where he
was nearly threatened with a 90 minute wait for a table was amazing. The
same occupancy was to be seen again on a Thursday evening! Bullish Thoughts
managed to "grab" a table in the outdoor section of the restaurant which
happens to be for smokers...luckily no one smoked. By the way, why is it
smokers get the best seating places and the best views in every restaurant?
Argrhhhh!

Anyway, for starters the team decided to share a bowl of chicken livers and
tasty they were. Kuri kumusha chiropa chehuku hatibate yet they don't even
know, we pay $7 for 4 pieces of such here in Harare! For the mains Bullish
Thoughts had a French fries with a record breaking 800g Tomahawk steak
medium done and juicy and tasty it was. 

Miss Bullish Thoughts had 500g rib rack with French fries as well
accompanied by a spinach cream sauce. The ribs looked and possibly tasted
heavenly...

Bullish Thoughts was not allowed to even touch one of them.

Bullish Thoughts wound down with a ginger base cheese cake while Miss
Bullish Thoughts chose Waffle with honey and ice cream. A worthwhile bonding
adventure it was!

When someone decided to speak out and the markets didn't move...at the least
the financial markets

...for the political markets certainly moved if the acres of space granted
to anyone willing and able to proffer and opinion about the speech "which
was in a sense deemed the wrong one" followed by an official government
response a day later. Even Twitter was blazing about that speech. Maybe the
ZSE has decided to have a life of its own decoupled from this sort of
politics or one could argue that whatever move the former excellence has up
his sleeve has since been priced in. Bullish Thoughts had always thought
(sic) that only Warren Buffet could cause some seismic waves when he spoke.
Bullish Thoughts currently doesn't yet afford the $2.7 million price tag for
lunch with Warren Buffet currently but supposes that someone is willing to
pay for an opportunity to speak. Bullish Thoughts reckons it's too late now
to charge a premium though but is of the view that a derivative on speeches
can be made by having someone speak by proxy and apparently the proxy in
mind has value of its own. But that's a deal conversation for another day.
Right now there is need for some cooling off...but there could also be value
for the one who will broker the requested talks...

While everyone was worrying about the speech that couldn't be found in the
digital world, Bullish Thoughts was being spoiled by his better half at
Garfunkels eatery AGAIN or is it restaurant.

Bullish Thoughts decided to have crumbed Haloumi Cheese with a sweet chilli
reduction for starters while the purse master went for crumbed button
mushrooms. For the mains, Bullish Thoughts chose settled for a humongous
combo of 500g pork ribs with 1/2 chicken extra hot and French fries. The
ribs were lovely (as usual) while the baby chicken spiced just the way
Bullish Thoughts likes it.

The better half settled for 250g T-bone with ribs combo and mashed potatoes
with side dish of Greek salad.

Cheese cake was again the dessert of choice.so full but just couldn't resist
ammortising someone's promised outlay!

Terrible service at Casa Mia...

First the drinks came in fairly good tie but out of the six of us the Malawi
Shandy didn't come. The starters took forever to come and the generous
portions of Haloumi cheese were just way too salt. No way that was part of
the chef's secret recipe

Bullish Thoughts ordered a supposedly "manly" mixed grilled comprising a
well done egg, medium rare steak which surprising was sprinkled with
barbecue sauce without consultation (Bullish Thoughts would have enjoyed it
much more had it come without the sauce), a tasty mini sausage, two pork
ribs and a drumstick.

And wait for it...another order was missing again and it so happened to be
for the colleague whose Malawi Shandy didn't get served. Maybe the waiter
and the dude have some prior history over the fairer sex species...just
maybe! The waiter didnt even bother apologizing and instead chose to insist
that maybe "mataurira pasi"...like really, which waiter gets a table of 6
people and finds himself with only 5 orders for both drinks and mains except
for starters and does find that odd? Anyway after lodging a complaint with
the "manager" the order was processed in a record 5 minutes. Bullish
Thoughts is tempted to say someone else's similar order was nicked.

The fillet steak was fine, the ox tail juicy but there was general consensus
that the pork ribs were dry...they came nowhere what Garfunkels serves.
There was nothing about the drumsticks except that they were roasted.

The whole crew decided to skip dessert on account of only having ice cream
as the selection and not wanting to hazard another inordinate delay in the
serving of it.

This is an Italian style outfit so maybe we ought to have ordered pizza or
some other Italian themed cuisines.

The patronage was just average for the 2.5 hours we were there despite one
of the waitresses indicating that it had been good and some patrons had
already left after having had an early lunch from 12pm there about. Will
give it the benefit of doubt.

But Bullish Thoughts is of the view that if he were to venture into
restaurant businesses like Shingi Munyeza, this is not the sort of outfit or
service that would be wanted and tolerated in the portfolio. It may just
turn out to be toxic and have contagion effect to all other businesses.

In the meantime, enjoy the earnings reporting season for period ended 31
December 2017. Some interesting growth numbers there, most in line with
parallel market rates movements (and mostly by a factor of 50% of the rate).

Garfunkels is at Sam Levy's Village Centre just opposite Zimoco. You may
want to make a booking as getting a table during peak hours may be a
challenge.

Gava's Restaurant is at Belgravia Sports Club. Usually no prior bookings
required unless of you are a huge entourage.

Casa Mia is at corner King George Road and Aberdeen Road in Avondale.

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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