Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 31 October 2018

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Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 31 October 2018

 


 

 


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*  South Africa's unemployment rate rises to 27.5 pct in Q3

*  S&P says concerned about South Africa's fiscal consolidation, land reform

*  Nigerian court adjourns case between MTN, central bank to Dec 4

*  Seychelles raises $15 million with world's first blue bond

*  Zimbabwe's 2018 budget deficit seen at 11.1 percent of GDP

*  Budget 2018: A bit of a gamble, says IFS

*  Facebook daily visits growth slows as sales miss forecasts

*  Italy's economy stalls as eurozone slows down

*  GE shares plunge as investigation widens

*  Sony eyes record profit as gaming hits boost earnings

*  Budget 2018: Who will pay the Digital Services Tax?

 

 


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South Africa's unemployment rate rises to 27.5 pct in Q3

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South Africa’s unemployment rate rose to 27.5
percent in the third quarter from 27.2 percent in the second quarter, the
country’s statistics office said on Tuesday.

 

There were 6.2 million people without jobs in the three months to the end of
September, compared with 6.1 million people in the prior quarter, Statistics
South Africa said its quarterly labour force survey.

 

The statistics office said the formal sector, private households and
agriculture recorded declines in employment, while the informal sector had
employment gains.

 

The expanded definition of unemployment, which includes people who have
stopped looking for work, rose slightly to 37.3 percent in the third quarter
from 37.2 percent in the previous quarter.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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S&P says concerned about South Africa's fiscal consolidation, land reform

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South Africa’s sovereign rating risked being
downgraded due to concerns about the postponement of fiscal consolidation
and lack of clarity around land expropriation, a senior S&P Global Ratings
analyst said on Tuesday.

 

Recession-hit South Africa last week unveiled a bleak budget that saw wider
budget deficits and low growth. South Africa is rated “junk” by S&P Global
Ratings and Fitch.

 

“It is on those two aspects we would consider lowering the rating,” Ravi
Bhatia, Director, Sovereign Ratings at S&P, said, referring to land reforms
and fiscal consolidation.

 

The next rating review by S&P would be on Nov. 23, he said.

 

Bhatia said fiscal consolidation had been postponed in the Medium Term
Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) presented by new Finance Minister Tito
Mboweni on Wednesday last week.

 

“This has been a trend for many years. That the deficits in the MTBPS are
being revised upwards ... that feeds into the debt stock where you see it
rising towards 60 percent with no clear stabilisation,” he said.

 

“And if you look at interest payments as a percentage of revenues, they’re
above 10 percent, and whether they’ll go above our thresholds of 15 percent
is something to watch.”

 

Bhatia also said “sentiment has been dampened by the lack of clarity in the
land expropriation.”

 

South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) has said it aims to
change the constitution to allow for land expropriation without compensation
to address racial disparities in land ownership that persist more than two
decades after apartheid’s demise in 1994.

 

President Cyril Ramaphosa has said the policy will be undertaken in a way
that does not threaten food security or economic growth. The ANC has said
unused land will be the main target. However, the policy has still unnerved
investors worried about the impact on property rights.

 

 

Nigerian court adjourns case between MTN, central bank to Dec 4

LAGOS (Reuters) - A Lagos judge adjourned a hearing on Tuesday in a
$10.1-billion dispute between South African telecoms firm MTN Group and
Nigeria’s central bank to Dec 4.

 

The central bank alleges the firm illegally sent $8.1 billion abroad, and
the Nigerian government has demanded $2 billion in taxes from MTN.

 

MTN, which makes about a third of its annual core profit in Nigeria, has
said the allegations are without merit.

 

 

Seychelles raises $15 million with world's first blue bond

NAIROBI (Reuters) - Seychelles has raised $15 million by offering the
world’s first blue bond, raised from investors to finance ocean-based
projects, to expand its marine protected areas and boost its fisheries
sector.

 

The Indian Ocean archipelago’s economy is dependent on the ocean and on
fisheries for food, nutrition and livelihoods, marine habitats, and other
blue economy sectors like tourism.

 

The 10-year bond was sold directly to three social impact investors based in
the United States; Calvert Impact Capital, Nuveen, and Prudential, through
Standard Chartered which served as the placement agent, said the World Bank,
which supported the issuance.

 

“The general population will benefit from a healthier marine environment and
increased food security,” said the Bank, which offered a partial guarantee
for the bond.

 

In February, Seychelles gave details on the first 210,000 square kilometre
(81,000 square miles) area to be conserved, limiting activities like
fishing, oil exploration and large-scale development in the most fragile
habitats, while allowing them under certain conditions in the rest of the
area.

 

The archipelago of fewer than 100,000 people mainly relies on tourism and
fishing for revenue, but in recent years oil and gas companies have been
exploring its turquoise waters, home to dugongs, turtles and tuna.

 

Seychelles, rich in underwater reefs and postcard-perfect beaches, defaulted
on its debt in 2008 and clawed its way back to prosperity with assistance
from the International Monetary Fund.

 

Government officials have since been searching for ways to preserve their
environment without endangering financial stability.

 

In February, it said it had reached an agreement with U.S.-based
conservation group The Nature Conservancy to buy up nearly $22 million of
Seychelles’ outstanding $406 million sovereign debt in return for the
country designating a third of its marine area as “protected”.

 

 

Zimbabwe's 2018 budget deficit seen at 11.1 percent of GDP

HARARE (Reuters) - Zimbabwe’s budget deficit will more than double to 11.1
percent of gross domestic product this year from an initial forecast of 5
percent due to runaway government spending, a senior treasury official said
on Monday.

 

President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s government cranked up spending by increasing
public sector salaries and purchasing farming inputs for rural farmers ahead
of a disputed July 31 presidential election.

 

The southern African nation is facing an acute shortage of dollars that has
stifled imports and sent prices soaring.

 

George Guvamatanga, the top civil servant at the finance ministry said the
government planned to reduce spending by, among other measures, cutting its
wage bill by $330 million between 2019 and 2020.

 

“A double digit budget deficit Mr Chairman is not sustainable,” Guvamatanga
told a parliamentary committee.

 

Guvamatanga said government revenues were set to rise to $5.7 billion this
year compared with an initial projection of $5 billion. The figure would
rise to $6.4 billion next year, Guvamatanga said, adding this showed the
economy was performing.

 

Zimbabwe’s statistics agency this month rebased some of its economic
statistics, in an unexpected move that increased the nominal size of the
struggling economy by more than 40 percent.

 

 

 

Budget 2018: A bit of a gamble, says IFS

The Budget has been branded "a bit of a gamble" by a respected economic
research group.

 

The chancellor was able to promise more spending in his budget after
forecasts for tax collection were raised, the Institute for Fiscal Studies
said.

 

But those forecasts could easily change for the worse, leaving the
chancellor in a tight spot, the IFS said.

 

The think tank also warned that many public services will continue to feel
squeezed for some time to come.

 

"This is no bonanza," said Paul Johnson, the director of the IFS.

 

"If I were a prison governor, a local authority chief executive or a head
teacher, I would struggle to find much to celebrate. I would be preparing
for more difficult years ahead."

 

Health spending is the exception, with £20bn extra funding promised to help
the NHS and pay for mental health services.

 

Speaking to the BBC's Today programme earlier, the Chancellor, Philip
Hammond, defended his spending decisions. He said that taken as a whole,
other departments would see their spending rising in line with inflation.

 

At-a-glance summary

Budget row over 'ending austerity'

What it means for you

Hammond hails better borrowing figures

Tech giants face digital services tax

Contractors face higher tax and NI payments

Budget calculator

In her speech to the Conservative Party conference in October, Prime
Minister Theresa May promised an end to austerity.

 

The IFS said it was not clear yet whether austerity is over. It pointed out
that £4bn of cuts to welfare spending were still working their way through
the system.

 

A judgement on austerity also depends on what is measured, according to the
IFS.

 

While total spending, including the effect of inflation, is set to rise,
spending as a fraction of national income will fall slightly.

 

Mr Johnson also said this Budget showed the government had abandoned its
target to get rid of the gap between spending and income - the deficit - in
the near future.

 

"Any idea that there is a serious desire to eliminate the deficit by the
mid-2020s is surely for the birds."

 

This chancellor is seemingly content to let the deficit float up. That would
have, until relatively recently, been considered heresy round his way.

 

Politically, it's a big change of priority and has allowed the government to
change its rhetoric substantially.

 

But if you look carefully, a huge amount of that money will be gobbled up
quickly by the health service. After that, by some calculations, there
simply won't be much to go around - and some departments might even still
face cuts.

 

The chancellor bases his Budget on figures from the Office for Budget
Responsibility (OBR). This year it revised up its forecasts for tax income,
which was an unexpected windfall for the government.

 

However, the IFS warned: "Yesterday's Budget was a bit of a gamble.

 

"What the OBR gives this year, it can easily take away again next year. If
it does, then the chancellor will have painted himself into a bit of a
corner."

 

To get himself out of that corner, the chancellor would have to raise taxes,
or more likely, continue to borrow money, the IFS said.

 

Meanwhile, spending on public health in England and doctors and nurse
training is set to fall next year, according to the fine print of the Budget
documents.

 

The chancellor announced real-terms funding increases for NHS England, which
provides front line services. But the rest of the Department of Health's
day-to-day budget next year (2019-20) will fall.

 

The Health Foundation think tank says in real terms, there will be a
reduction of £1bn, or 12%.

 

What else was announced?

£400m to allow schools to "buy the little extras they need"

A digital services tax aimed at tech giants

Help for first-time buyers of shared ownership properties

Another freeze in fuel duty

A £30bn package for England's roads, including repairs to motorways and
potholes

£900m in business rates relief for small businesses and £650m to rejuvenate
High Streets

Tighter tax rules affecting private sector contractors

A tax on plastic packaging which does not contain enough recycled materials
- but no disposable plastic cup tax

An extra £1bn for the Ministry of Defence to boost cyber capabilities and
anti-submarine warfare capacity

A further £650m of grant funding for English local authorities to spend on
social care--bbc

 

 

 

Facebook daily visits growth slows as sales miss forecasts

Facebook's user growth has slowed and its revenue has missed forecasts,
according to the firm's latest results.

 

An average of 1.49 billion people used Facebook's social network on a daily
basis in September, up 9% on last year but below expectations of 1.51
billion.

 

Growth was flat in the US and Canada and fell in Europe.

 

Facebook said sales rose by 33% to $13.7bn (£10.7bn), however they fell
short of expectations and trailed the prior quarter's 42% gain.

 

The company, which also owns WhatsApp and Instagram, is grappling with a
shift in its business as user growth slows in its most profitable markets.

 

Facebook shares dive as growth disappoints

Facebook security breach: Up to 50m accounts attacked

Growth is stalling in developed markets while an increasing amount of
activity is happening via private messages or temporary "stories".

 

The firm is yet to turn those features into an advertising business on the
same level as the newsfeed on its original Facebook network.

 

'Significant investment'

Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder and chief executive of Facebook, said he is
confident that the company's advertising sales will catch up to the change
in users' behaviour.

 

However, he warned investors that 2019 would be another year of "significant
investment".

 

"It will take some time," he said.

 

Facebook, which has been hit by data breaches and concerns about "fake
news", told investors in July that growth would slow.

 

It cited the shift in users and its own increased spending on security and
privacy.

 

Managing problems

During the third quarter to 30 September, Facebook said India, Indonesia and
the Philippines showed the strongest gains in users.

 

It also said that expenses increased 53% year-on-year to $7.9bn.

 

Facebook expects revenue growth to continue to decelerate and costs to grow
between 40% and 50% in 2019.

 

Mr Zuckerberg said expenses should begin to moderate after that but
cautioned that investments in anti-hacking and abuse efforts will continue.

 

"I do think we are up against sophisticated adversaries who will continue to
evolve so there is a large element of this that is an arms race," he said.

 

"These are not problems that you fix. These are problems that you manage
over time."

 

Profits in the third quarter were $5.1bn, up 9% due in part to a
lower-than-expected tax rate.--bbc

 

 

 

Italy's economy stalls as eurozone slows down

Italy's economy came to a standstill in the third quarter of the year,
registering no growth at all,

 

It comes as the new coalition government is arguing with the European
Commission over the need for an expansionary budget to boost growth.

 

Meanwhile, figures from the European Union showed economic growth in the 19
countries using the euro currency slowed by more than expected.

 

Eurozone growth slowed to 0.2%, from 0.4% in the previous quarter.

 

Growth across all 28 countries of the EU fell to 0.3% from 0.5%.

 

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said the zero growth in Italy
justified Rome's expansionary 2019 budget, which the European Commission has
rejected because it breaks EU rules.

 

He said on Facebook; "The slowing GDP is another reason to go full steam
ahead with the budget."

 

Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said:
"This is a sobering number for the new government, though we suspect that it
will meet it with fighting talk, at least initially.

 

"After all, with growth now stalling, fiscal stimulus is needed more than
ever, or so at least the argument will go in Rome."

 

Waning optimism

Figures from the French statistics agency INSEE showed France's economy
picked up thanks to a rebound in consumer spending.

 

It grew by 0.4% in the third quarter, compared with 0.2% in the previous
three-month period, but the rate was less than forecast, meaning the
government may miss its full-year growth targets.

 

Separately, the European Commission said economic sentiment dropped in the
eurozone for the 10th consecutive month.

 

Its measure of sentiment fell to 109.8 points in October from 110.9 in
September - the biggest drop since March.--bbc

 

 

GE shares plunge as investigation widens

Shares in General Electric plunged by more than 8% following investor
concerns about the turnaround prospects at the once-mighty industrial giant.

 

GE admitted that US civil and criminal authorities had widened
investigations into accounting practices at the firm.

 

It also reported worse than expected third quarter results.

 

It said that it would drastically cut its payment to shareholders to pay
down debt and will restructure its struggling power business.

 

Larry Culp, GE's new chief executive and the third boss in two years, said
the company's aviation and healthcare divisions - its two most profitable
units - remain strong and he is confident that the business can improve.

 

"We know what we need to do. Now is the time to execute," he said.

 

However, shareholders dumped stock in the 126-year-old conglomerate to send
its share price down to the lowest level since 2009.

 

GE missed forecasts with a third quarter loss of $22.8bn after it was forced
to take a $22bn writedown on its power division.

 

Revenues fell down 4% to $29.6bn.

 

The Securities and Exchange Commission has expanded its investigation into
GE's accounting practices to include the $22bn charge.

 

The Department of Justice is also investigation, chief financial officer
Jamie Miller said.

 

"We are cooperating with the SEC and DoJ as they continue their work on
these matters," she said.

 

General Electric had already warned investors it would miss its profit
targets this year. On Tuesday, it did not offer an updated outlook.

 

Mr Culp said he wanted more time to dig into the numbers, particularly at GE
Power, where revenue dropped 33% in the quarter.

 

The unit, which makes turbines and other products that power nuclear
reactors and gas plants around the world, has faced a series of problems,
including manufacturing flaws.

 

Its performance has also been dogged by the 2015 purchase of French company
Alstom Energy, which expanded GE's traditional power plant footprint just as
market demand began to shrink.

 

On Tuesday, Mr Culp said GE Power's financial reporting had been influenced
by "undue optimism".

 

He said a plan to split the division in two would simplify the business and
make it easier to spot problems.

 

"It's going to take some time, but I'm hopeful that we can build that
credibility, deliver that performance over time," he said.

 

General Electric, founded in 1892, traces its roots to Thomas Edison's
lighting company and once ranked as the most valuable corporation in
America.

 

Its profile has declined more recently, as the firm sold off many of its
divisions.--bbc

 

 

Sony eyes record profit as gaming hits boost earnings

Sony has forecast a huge jump in annual operating profit as demand for its
games, including God of War and Spider-Man, boosted earnings.

 

The Japanese electronics firm raised its annual profit forecast to 870bn yen
($7.7bn; £6.0bn), up 30% from estimates given in July.

 

The upgrade comes after strong sales in its Playstation division drove
revenues in the second quarter.

 

Gaming also spurred a strong rise in operating profit at rival Nintendo.

 

IDC gaming analyst Sam Reynolds said both Japanese firms had posted
"impressive earnings based on the strength of the gaming market".

 

He said Sony could credit strong sales to "the quality of games on the
platform" which include bestsellers God of War and Spider-Man, while demand
for Red Dead Redemption II has also been high.

 

Mr Reynolds said the gaming market was less competitive than Sony's home
entertainment businesses, an industry that had faced "substantial pricing
pressure" over the last decade and aggressive competition from South Korean
and Chinese rivals.

 

Along with gaming, Sony's movie unit and music business also supported
profits during the second quarter and helped offset challenges in its mobile
division.

 

Operating income for the period was 239.5bn yen, the firm said in a
statement.

 

Nintendo profit jumps

Strong sales of gaming products also boosted earnings at rival Nintendo.

 

The firm's second-quarter operating profit hit 30.9bn yen - helped by sales
of its Switch console - but the result was below analyst expectations of
37.9bn yen, according to Bloomberg.

 

The console, launched in 2017, has proved a runaway success for Nintendo.

 

It has become the fastest-selling games console in the Japanese firm's
history and Nintendo's biggest hit since the Wii was launched in 2006.

 

But trade tensions between the US and China could cast a shadow over future
earnings.

 

IDC's Mr Reynolds said at present, Japanese electronics makers were
relatively sheltered from the trade uncertainty surrounding China, as
console sales there are a fraction of the global market.

 

"However, there's also a chance that Nintendo could face significant
pressure - and ultimately shortages - should they try to start... building
up supply of the next-generation Switch before trade relations have
normalised," he added.--bbc

 

 

Budget 2018: Who will pay the Digital Services Tax?

It was one of the more surprising features of the Budget, a Digital Services
Tax designed to make tech giants earning vast revenues in the UK pay their
fair share.

 

Now comes the difficult part - working out how the tax will be designed and
who will pay it.

 

The tax looks as though it is targeted at the likes of Google, Amazon and
Facebook - the Treasury says it will apply to search engines, online
marketplaces and social media firms.

 

"You can't specify the named firms so you think what characteristics catch
them but not start-ups," says Jill Rutter, a former Treasury civil servant
who now works for the Institute of Government.

 

She says the chancellor will have had two worries in designing the tax -
"catching things he doesn't want to catch - or not catching what he does
want to catch."

 

But tax lawyer Dan Neidle from Clifford Chance says there is a guiding
principle behind the tax. "The highfalutin theory is that value is being
created by users for these companies and not being taxed. So for instance,
you put a picture of a cat on Facebook, people click on an advert next to it
and Facebook earns money from that."

 

Stream or download the latest Tech Tent podcast

Social media firms and search engines will pay the 2% tax on the advertising
revenue earned from UK users in this way. When it comes to online
marketplaces, the aim is not to put a tax on the payment from the consumer
but on the "platform fee", the commission paid by the merchants using the
market.

 

Firms will only pay the tax if they have global revenues of at least £500m.
They have to be profitable, and the first £25m of UK revenues will be tax
free. The Office for Budget Responsibility says around 30 companies could
end up being affected. So let's look at who might fit into each category:

 

Search engines: It's hard to see any business other than Google and
Microsoft's Bing qualifying for the tax

Social Media firms: Facebook certainly fits the bill, and don't forget it
also owns Instagram which is now generating lots of advertising revenue. But
what about the UK's other favourite social hangouts Twitter and Snapchat?
They aren't making profits - until they do they're exempt.

Online Marketplaces: Here it gets a lot more complex. Ebay certainly
qualifies but tax experts are divided about Amazon, It won't pay anything on
revenues earned from direct sales to shoppers but what about the commission
from merchants using the Amazon Marketplace as a platform to sell their
wares?

Food Delivery: Then there is speculation about a couple of UK firms in the
food delivery business, Deliveroo and Just Eat. Their business model -
earning commission from restaurants dependent on their platform - appears to
qualify but Deliveroo's revenues are below the threshold and neither company
is making a profit. But that could change by 2020 when the tax comes in.

 

 

So for now it seems that only American tech firms could qualify. "Very few
British firms are big enough - this is aimed at US giants and that brings a
risk," says Heather Self at the accountants Blick Rothenberg. She warns that
if the Trump administration sees this tax as effectively a tariff on
successful American businesses that could end up with a complaint to the
World Trade Organization.

 

What is clear is that there is a lot of painful work ahead on a tax which,
in the words of Heather Self, will raise a lot less than the chancellor
earmarked for mending potholes.

 

Jill Rutter from the Institute of Government says even the £400m projected
return is "the most uncertain figure in the Budget", though she suspects
Facebook is one firm that will pay up without making a fuss: "2% is a drop
in the ocean for them. Nick Clegg (Facebook's new communications supremo)
may advise them it's not worth the reputational risk to argue about it."

 

If the tax was about assuaging public anger about the low tax paid by giant
firms, it may not do the job - after all the world's wealthiest business,
Apple, and Uber, one of the most controversial, both seem unlikely to be
affected,.

 

"The problem with sector-specific taxes is you create lots of uncertainty -
and lots of work for people like me," says Dan Neidle. So at least the tax
lawyers will be happy.--bbc

 

 

 

 


 

 


 

INVESTORS DIARY 2018

 


Company

Event

Venue

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