Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 12 December 2019

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Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 12 December 2019

 


 

 


 <http://www.nedbank.co.zw/> 

 


 

 


 

 

ü  MTN will defend its views on data prices if case referred to Tribunal

ü  South Africa's growth forecasts slashed, recession risk high

ü  Petra Diamonds says mines operating at normal electricity load levels

ü  IMF, Ethiopia reach preliminary agreement on $2.9 bln financing package

ü  Rwanda GDP growth surges in Q3 2019

ü  South African power cuts set to continue as some Eskom units still down

ü  Zambia's power supply deficit worsens as water levels sink

ü  Uganda's Umeme power company gets $70 mln loan for national grid expansion

ü  Eskom works to restore power after S.Africa floods, mines reopen

ü  Brexit: Free trade deals 'won't offset leaving EU'

ü  Trump 'signs off' on deal to pause US-China trade war

ü  Jamie Oliver's Fifteen Cornwall restaurant closes

ü  Superdry founder 'pleased with progress' despite loss

ü  How millennials are changing the perfume business

ü  Pound soars on exit poll forecast of Tory majority

 

 

 

 

 

 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 


 

MTN will defend its views on data prices if case referred to Tribunal

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - MTN Group will defend its views on lower data prices before a Competition Tribunal if the competition watchdog refers the case, Rob Shuter, chief executive of the South African telecoms group, said on Thursday.

 

The country’s competition commission said earlier this month that Vodacom and MTN could face prosecution if they fail to cut data prices within two months.

 

 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 


 

South Africa's growth forecasts slashed, recession risk high

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Forecasts for South African growth were slashed in a Reuters poll of economists taken as rolling power shortages got worse, suggesting the poll’s median 40% chance the country has sunk into a recession may be too low.

 

South Africa’s economy has struggled in the nearly two years since President Cyril Ramaphosa took office. It shrank 0.6% last quarter, the second quarterly contraction in three quarters, and the poll conducted in the past week predicted 0.9% growth this quarter, much slower than the 1.4% forecast a month ago.

 

While the poll was being conducted, the country has been suffering its most severe blackouts in a decade, indicating the risk to forecasts is likely to be to the downside.

 

Barclays analysts wrote that they see clear downside risks in South Africa, given the ongoing decline in the South African Reserve Bank’s leading indicator for economic activity.

 

However, the economy is expected to grow 1.0% next year and 1.4% in 2021, better than this year’s 0.4%, according to the poll of 20 economists.

 

December will probably show this year’s average change in consumer prices slowed to 4.2%, 0.4 percentage points slower than in 2018.

 

The South Africa Reserve Bank kept its repo rate unchanged at 6.5% in a close decision last month, saying it wanted to see inflation expectations closer to the midpoint of its 3% to 6% target range.

 

The central bank will wait until May to cut rates by 25 basis points to 6.25%, which would be only the second cut in two years, the poll said.

 

The rand has lost over 3% since the year began, but retailers have found ways to avoid passing the cost of falling prices to their consumers.

 

“Add this to expectations for a benign commodity price outlook (such as oil), inflation is expected to remain moderate during next year,” said Thea Fourie, senior economist, sub-Saharan Africa at IHS Markit.

 

Consumer inflation will average a little higher at 4.6% in 2020 and 4.7% in 2021, the poll said. But 11 of 15 economists said the central bank overestimated the inflation pass-through from the rand over the past two years.

 

“SARB models have consistently overestimated this pass-through, thereby overestimating inflation,” said Razia Khan, chief economist for Africa and the Middle East at Standard Chartered.

 

A separate Reuters poll last week suggested emerging-market currency gains would probably be dominated by high-yielding currencies rather than low-risk bets next year as economic growth finally recovers in response to lower interest rates.

 

However, the high-yielding rand might not even be part of that theme next year because its central bank has not stimulated the economy as much as other emerging-market central banks.

 

 

 

Petra Diamonds says mines operating at normal electricity load levels

(Reuters) - Petra Diamonds Ltd said on Thursday that its electricity usage restrictions have been lifted by South Africa’s state utility Eskom and its mines are operating at normal load levels.

 

The company restarted its Cullinan, Finsch and Koffiefontein mines in South Africa on Tuesday, but added that it was restricting power usage in line with requirements by Eskom.

 

Rolling blackouts in South Africa are set to continue on Thursday as some generating units are still down, after a week of heavy rains across parts of the country caused flooding, aggravating problems at struggling power firm Eskom.

 

Shares in Petra Diamonds were 1.4% higher at 8.2 pence at 1211 GMT.

 

 

IMF, Ethiopia reach preliminary agreement on $2.9 bln financing package

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The staff of the International Monetary Fund and the Ethiopian government have reached a preliminary agreement for a three-year, $2.9 billion financing package to support the African country’s economic reform program, the IMF said on Wednesday.

 

It said the agreement was subject to approval by the Fund’s executive board. If approved, it would be supported by the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

 

The Ethiopian economic reform program would focus on addressing the foreign exchange shortage and transitioning to a more flexible exchange rate regime, while working to strengthen oversight and management of state-owned enterprises to contain debt vulnerabilities in Africa’s second most populous nation.

 

It would also work to free up domestic revenue for poverty-reducing and essential infrastructure spending; financial sector reforms to support private investment and modernize the monetary policy framework; and strengthening of the supervisory framework and financial safety nets, the IMF said.

 

 

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed pledged to undertake economic reforms when he took office last year, with a focus on leveraging private sector investment to help provide jobs for millions of unemployed youth in the nation’s 100 million people.

 

Ethiopia’s foreign exchange shortages have worsened in the past five years as the government spent heavily on infrastructure before export earnings from new sectors such as manufacturing took off.

 

 

Rwanda GDP growth surges in Q3 2019

KIGALI (Reuters) - Rwanda’s economic growth shot up in the third quarter of this year, lifted by improved performance in manufacturing, construction and services, the statistics office said on Thursday.

 

The statistics office said the economy grew 11.9% year-on-year, up from 7.7% in the third quarter of 2018.

 

It said construction grew 29%, up from 17% a year ago, while manufacturing expanded 13%, up from 10% in the same period last year. Services grew 13%, up from 7%.

 

Rwanda’s economy largely depends on agriculture, tourism and mining. The government forecasts it will grow 8.5% this year, compared with 8.6% in 2018.

 

Rwanda’s economy has been growing rapidly since the end of the country’s 1994 genocide, when an estimated 800,000 people were killed. The country’s president, Paul Kagame, has been lauded for overseeing the growth, although critics fault him for his harsh handling of dissent.

 

 

South African power cuts set to continue as some Eskom units still down

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Rolling blackouts in South Africa are set to continue on Thursday as some generating units are still down, after a week of heavy rains across parts of the country caused flooding, aggravating problems at struggling power firm Eskom.

 

On Monday Eskom announced unprecedented levels of blackouts, which have disrupted the supply of electricity to businesses and households across South Africa.

 

President Cyril Ramaphosa, who cut short a trip to Egypt to deal with the crisis, said on Wednesday Eskom will work to stabilise the power grid by the end of March.

 

In addition to heavy rain, he also blamed suspected sabotage at power stations, which contributed 2,000 megawatts (MW) of lost capacity during the past week’s outages and said that needed to be investigated.

 

The utility will cut up to 2,000 MW of power from the national grid on a rotational basis from 9 a.m. to 11 p.m, Eskom spokesperson Dikatso Mothae said.

 

“While good progress has been made with additional units being returned to service, stage 2 loadshedding will be implemented...as breakdowns are still above 9,500 MW,” the utility said in a statement.

 

The state-owned utility produces more than 90% of South Africa’s power but has struggled to keep up with demand, leading to nationwide power cuts that have deterred investment and caused a major headache for Ramaphosa, who came to power nearly two years ago vowing to reverse years of mismanagement and economic stagnation.

 

 

Zambia's power supply deficit worsens as water levels sink

LUSAKA (Reuters) - Zambia’s electricity supply shortage increased to 810 megawatts (MW) in November from around 750 MW in September, state power firm Zesco said on Thursday, adding it would quickly commission new power plants to plug the gap.

 

Africa’s no.2 copper producer has seen electricity supply dwindle due to low water levels at hydropower dams as a severe drought sweeps through southern Africa for the second time in less than five years, largely due to a prolonged dry season caused by climate change.

 

Zambia and neighbour Zimbabwe have suffered power cuts due to their heavy reliance on hydropower from plants at the Kariba Dam on the Zambezi river, upstream of the famous Victoria Falls waterfalls, which water authorities warn is drying fast.

 

In September Zambia said it would import 300 MW of power from South Africa’s Eskom, which itself is struggling with generation problems and has this week implemented power cuts, putting imports under pressure.

 

At a briefing on Thursday state utility, Zesco’s director of strategy Patrick Mwila said the firm expected to add more than 700 MW to the grid by the end of next year after commissioning new power plants.

 

“We have reached a level where we have exhausted our water allocation at Kariba dam,” Mwila said.

 

 

 

Uganda's Umeme power company gets $70 mln loan for national grid expansion

KAMPALA (Reuters) - Umeme Ltd, the Ugandan power distributor, said on Thursday it has secured $70 million in a syndicated loan to fund infrastructure upgrades and grid expansion.

 

The loan was agreed with the World Bank’s private lending arm IFC, South Africa’s Standard Bank and Dutch development bank FMO.

 

Umeme said investments will be carried out within three years and will involve revamping sections of the distribution network, increasing grid connections and boosting supply reliability.

 

“This financing will enable us to mobilise and deploy the much-needed long-term capital expenditure urgently needed to evacuate the new generated power,” the company said in a statement.

 

The Karuma Hydro Power plant, a 600 megawatt (MW) China-funded power plant on River Nile, is expected to be commissioned by next February. Another hydro power plant on the Nile also funded by Beijing, the 183MW Isimba Hydroelectric Power Station, was commissioned early this year.

 

Uganda’s national grid currently reaches just 26% of the nation’s 44 million people. When Karuma is operational, Uganda’s total power generation is expected to hit nearly 2000MW.

 

Umeme said the funding will also help it connect more of its customers to prepaid meters, a strategy it began rolling out in 2011 to help cut rampant customer defaults and power thefts.

 

The company is listed on the Uganda and Kenya stock exchanges. Its largest shareholder is Uganda’s state-controlled National Social Security Fund NSSF.

 

Other major shareholders include South African funds, such as Allan Gray, Kimberlite Frontier Africa and Investec Asset Management.

 

Last year, Umem said it plans to spend $1.2 billion over seven years to revamp and expand the grid, including extending lines and building new substations.

 

 

Eskom works to restore power after S.Africa floods, mines reopen

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South African state power utility Eskom scaled back power cuts on Wednesday, providing relief to mining companies that were able to restart operations hit earlier this week by the worst blackouts in a decade.

 

A week of heavy rains across parts of South Africa has caused flooding, leading to evacuations and aggravating problems at the cash-strapped and indebted power company, which has been struggling to keep the lights on since 2008. [nL8N2873AC]

 

Eskom said it planned to reduce national grid supplies by 2,000 megawatts (MW) on Wednesday, down from a 6,000 MW reduction on Monday. But the company added that the probability for continued loadshedding, or planned rolling blackouts, “remained high for the rest of the week”. [nL8N28J0NJ]

 

Chief Operations Officer Jan Oberholzer told Reuters the power cuts earlier in the week were caused by a “perfect storm” of extreme rainfall and breakdowns at coal-fired power plants. One coal mine and three power stations had flooded, he said.

 

Unplanned breakdowns were occurring across Eskom’s coal-fired plants because previous managers had not done critical mid-life maintenance, he added.

 

The breakdowns were likely to persist as Eskom has neither the spare generating capacity nor the money to take all of the faulty coal units off-line and overhaul them, Oberholzer said.

 

The power cuts, which have disrupted the supply of electricity to businesses and households across South Africa, dealt a further blow to an economy already teetering on the brink of recession.

 

President Cyril Ramaphosa, who cut short a state visit to Egypt as the power crisis deepened, met with Eskom’s management and board on Wednesday.

 

“The president has put it on record that the issue of loadshedding ... is a national crisis,” Ramaphosa’s spokeswoman Khusela Diko told news channel eNCA. “He wants to understand how we got here.”

 

In the short run, a combination of drier weather and work places shutting down for Christmas will cool demand for power, relieving pressure on the grid, said Azar Jammine, director of South Africa-based consultancy Econometrix.

 

But he added: “it has created a lot of uncertainty over whether we can rely on energy security in South Africa, and that in itself is going to damage economic growth.”

 

BACK IN BUSINESS

Mining firms including Harmony Gold and Sibanye-Stillwater were forced to cut production on Monday because of power shortages. [nL8N28K1Q4]

 

Sibanye-Stillwater said its underground operations had resumed on Tuesday afternoon but would still operate with 10% less power than normal.

 

“We lost a day’s shifts. It will have an impact on quarterly results. It will be noticeable,” said James Wellsted, spokesman for Sibanye-Stillwater. “It’s a cumulative impact of all the different stages of load curtailment.”

 

Harmony said on Wednesday it had also resumed shifts at its underground mines on Tuesday afternoon.

 

 

Impala Platinum, which had said its losses due to the power cuts had amounted to 120 million rand ($8.16 million), resumed operations at its mines from 1600 GMT on Tuesday.

 

Its deep-level Rustenburg and Marula mines, which halted production for a day, were still operating with 15% less power than normal on Wednesday, a spokesman said.

 

Petra Diamonds restarted operations at its Cullinan, Finsch and Koffiefontein mines on Tuesday evening after halting them on Monday when asked by Eskom to reduce its electricity load.

 

AngloGold Ashanti shut down all its mines on Monday night and reopened them around 0600 GMT on Tuesday, a spokeswoman said.

 

“This obviously is a disruption to production,” she said, declining to quantify the impact.

 

South Africa’s cash-strapped state-owned companies have been a major headache for Ramaphosa who came to power nearly two years ago vowing to reverse years of mismanagement and economic stagnation.

 

On Monday, he vowed to take “drastic” steps if necessary to ensure their survival. [nL8N28J0NJ]

 

South African Airways was placed in bankruptcy protection last week and an independent administrator was appointed to run the state’s passenger rail company on Monday.

 

But loss-making Eskom, which generates more than 90% of the country’s power, is the “most serious risk” to the economy, the Treasury says. This is largely because of its 500 billion rand of debt, mostly government-backed.

 

Credit rating agency Moody’s has said Eskom’s troubles endanger South Africa’s only surviving investment-grade rating.

 

($1 = 14.7075 rand)

 

 

 

 

Brexit: Free trade deals 'won't offset leaving EU'

Post-Brexit trade deals will not make up for the economic damage inflicted on the UK from leaving the EU, analysis for BBC Newsnight has suggested.

 

Independent trade experts from the UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) looked at the likely impact of US, Australian and New Zealand free trade deals.

 

They found that even combined, new tariff-cutting agreements were likely to boost the UK economy by just 0.4%.

 

A simple free trade deal would also depress the economy UKTPO said.

 

The body said that moving from full EU membership to a simple deal with our closest trading partner - the objective enshrined in Boris Johnson's Withdrawal Agreement - would depress the size of the economy by at least 1.8%.

 

A Conservative spokesperson said: "The prime minister's fantastic deal makes clear that we will have a future relationship based on free trade and friendly cooperation. By striking trade deals around the world we will create exciting new opportunities for British businesses."

 

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The Conservative manifesto claims free trade is the "best way" to increase exports, cut prices and increase investment.

 

The upshot from this analysis is that there is no realistic prospect of new trade deals with other countries, even the "ambitious" deals touted by ministers, offsetting the economic hit from Brexit itself.

 

Moving to an EU free trade deal and striking new free trade agreements with the US, Australia and New Zealand has an estimated negative impact on the UK economy of 1.4% in the UKTPO results - equivalent to £28bn, or £1,000 per household.

 

The results from the UKTPO, which is based at the University of Sussex, show that moving to a free trade deal with the EU is beneficial overall for the UK agriculture and food processing sector, due to reduced competition from Continental farmers.

 

But that benefit is wiped out if US, Australian and New Zealand trade deals slash import tariffs and quotas, resulting in a surge of agricultural imports.

 

Mr Johnson, in a Commons statement presenting his Brexit Withdrawal Agreement deal on 19 October, stated: "For the first time in almost five decades the UK will be able to strike free trade deals with our friends across the world to benefit the whole country - including Northern Ireland."

 

But Newsnight understands that internal UK government impact assessments show that, in fact, only the South East will benefit from US, Australian and New Zealand trade deals, and that the rest of the country will see negative consequences

 

Northern Ireland is, sources say, particularly badly affected due to its agriculture industry being severely hit.

 

The UKTPO used what is known as a partial equilibrium trade model to look at the likely impact on 148 individual UK industrial sectors of slashing tariff and non-tariff barriers.

 

Prof Michael Gasiorek led the modelling project for UKTPO. He was unsurprised by the results.

 

"It's arithmetic," he said. "Tariffs on many goods are already quite low or zero so there are no great gains from lowering them.

 

"Also relative to how much we trade with the EU, we do much less with the US, Australia and New Zealand, so the overall impact on output is not massive.

 

"It certainly doesn't offset the negative impact of leaving the EU. Further, agreeing on the removal of regulatory barriers will be difficult - as the EU had found in its negotiations with the US."

 

The UKTPO results are in line with the findings of a Treasury modelling exercise in 2018, which estimated the benefit of any new trade deals would only be between 0.1 and 0.2% of GDP - a benefit dwarfed by the negative impact of leaving the EU's single market and customs union.

 

Newsnight understands the Department for International Trade has now completed fresh impact assessments of US, Australian and New Zealand trade deals, which show results similar to the UKTPO findings, but that these are not due to be published until after Brexit and ahead of the publication of mandates for trade negotiators.--BBC

 

 

 

 

Trump 'signs off' on deal to pause US-China trade war

The US and China are close to signing a trade deal that averts another round of tariffs due to start on Sunday.

 

The deal could be announced as soon as Friday, after US President Donald Trump reportedly signed off on the terms.

 

The US has agreed to remove some tariffs as part of the agreement. In exchange, China would boost purchases of US farm goods.

 

Many of the more difficult issues are still to be addressed, but the progress sent US share markets to record highs.

 

"It's a good starting point," Chamber of Commerce head of international affairs Myron Brilliant told broadcaster CNBC after meeting with White House officials.

 

A deal would deliver a victory to Mr Trump, who is under political pressure, with debate on his impeachment underway in the US Congress.

 

He tweeted earlier on Thursday that the US and China were "very" close to an agreement.

 

"They want it and so do we!" he wrote.

 

Report

Previous truces have collapsed and without a formal announcement or presentation of a written agreement, many remained wary. The hints of progress on Thursday still sent the main US stock indexes up about 1%.

 

The US reportedly offered to halve tariff rates on about $350bn worth of Chinese goods, some of which had climbed as high as 25%.

 

However, the deal is not expected to address many of the more difficult issues that triggered the fight, like China's subsidies for certain industries.

 

As described, the potential agreement falls short of what the US initially said were its goals, said Jennifer Hillman, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former trade official.

 

"This should NOT be described as a trade agreement," she wrote on Twitter.

 

"It is a purchase and sale agreement that does virtually nothing to address substantive concerns of US (+rest of the world) with China's trade practices."

 

Report

Mr Trump has repeatedly declared progress toward a deal that would end the trade war, which has seen tariffs imposed on more than $450bn worth of US-China trade and weighed on the global economy.

 

In October, he announced that the two sides had agreed to terms for a "Phase One" deal, but negotiations dragged on.

 

Without progress, the US had threatened to impose tariffs on more than $150bn worth of Chinese exports on 15 December.

 

Trump tariff deadline looms: 'It's very scary'

A quick guide to the US-China trade war

Unlike earlier rounds of tariffs, this one was slated to fall largely on everyday items, including smartphones, children's books, footwear and clothing, heightening the economic stakes, since the US economy is driven by consumer spending.

 

Goldman Sachs analysts estimated that US economic growth could be 0.4% lower next year, without some sort of deal to avoid the next tariffs and roll back some of those already in place.

 

White House officials have downplayed the risks, arguing the tariffs are aimed at making China give up "unfair" trade practices, such as alleged intellectual property theft.--BBC

 

 

 

 

Jamie Oliver's Fifteen Cornwall restaurant closes

Jamie Oliver's Fifteen Cornwall restaurant is closing with immediate effect, putting up to 100 jobs at risk.

 

The restaurant run by charity the Cornwall Food Foundation (CFF), will close "following an independent financial review".

 

Fifteen Cornwall, which opened in 2006, trained unemployed people to work in its kitchen, near Newquay.

 

Jamie Oliver's restaurant group went into administration in May, with the likes of Jamie's Italian closing.

 

Trustees however, told the BBC Fifteen Cornwall's closure is unrelated.

 

Approximately 70 jobs are at risk in the restaurant, while 30 posts at the charity are expected to be lost.

 

Mr Oliver said he was "surprised and saddened" about the latest closure.

 

CFF chief executive Matthew Thomson, said: "I am profoundly sorry for the hurt, loss and distress this announcement will undoubtedly cause".

 

In a statement, CFF said: "As a charity and social enterprise restaurant we have welfare and safeguarding responsibilities that we are doing our utmost to resolve.

 

"We are talking with partners to find a way for the support for people to continue including those on the Fifteen training programme and Food for Change".

 

Those who had booked to dine at the restaurant over Christmas have been told their reservations had been cancelled.

 

A statement on the restaurant's website said those who have paid a deposit for their booking "are an unsecured creditor".

 

Customers who have paid by credit card, however, "will likely be able to make a claim via your credit card provider".

 

"Both organisations have always been run separately from us, but the team has done an amazing job with the trainee programme, training over 200 chefs and reaching so many more along the way - so this is a huge blow," Mr Oliver added.

 

"My thoughts are with everyone affected."

 

Fifteen Cornwall's former executive chef Neil Haydock was "shocked and really saddened" to hear of the news but said the industry is "crying out for chefs".

 

He added: "It puts chefs back on to the market and hopefully they'll find good jobs really quickly."

 

Last month, the restaurant had announced it was searching for a new cohort of apprentices.--BBC

 

 

 

Superdry founder 'pleased with progress' despite loss

Superdry founder Julian Dunkerton has said he is "pleased with the progress" the fashion retailer has made despite it reporting a half-year loss.

 

Mr Dunkerton said reviving Superdry would "take two to three years" and pledged to stay at the firm until 2021.

 

He returned to the company in April after a lengthy campaign against the previous management.

 

Superdry sank to a loss of £4.2m in the six months to 26 October compared with a profit of £26.4m a year earlier.

 

Revenues dropped 11% to £369.1m after the company focused on full price sales and reducing promotions to try to lift profit margins.

 

However, it said its decline in retail sales had moderated during the six months.

 

Mr Dunkerton said: "At this halfway point in our financial year, I am pleased with the progress we have made to comprehensively reset Superdry.

 

"We are only eight months into a process that will take two to three years, but I have great confidence in the strength of our new executive leadership team."

 

Mr Dunkerton stepped down from the firm's board in March 2018 but returned this April after narrowly winning a shareholder vote, prompting Superdry executives to resign en masse.

 

He argued the fashion brand, which he co-founded in 2003, had over-extended its range and needed to focus more on the jackets and hoodies that made it famous.

 

In July, when Superdry reported an £85m annual loss, Mr Dunkerton said he wanted to "steady the ship and get the culture of the business back to the one which drove its original success" by returning the brand to its "design-led roots".

 

What went wrong at Superdry?

Retail analyst Richard Lim, from Retail Economics, said: "As the boardroom shenanigans begin to settle, these results demonstrate the size of the task at hand".

 

However, Mr Lim said that going back to the original roots of the business "remains a questionable strategy given the sheer pace of change in the industry".

 

"Returning to a brand that once had a point of differentiation, a reason to visit stores and a point of view will be no easy feat."

 

He added that online Superdry "falls well short of many of its competitors".

 

"The long road of recovery is likely to have many twists and turns ahead."--BBC

 

 

 

How millennials are changing the perfume business

Whiffs of fragrant roses, jasmine and bergamot are rising from the flask.

 

"You smell those flowery tones? These are the basis of all women's perfume," says Guy Delforge, spraying a bottle of his own creation.

 

>From his workshop in the citadel perched above the Belgian city of Namur, he ingredients from around the world to craft his signature scents.

 

A perfumer for 34 years, Mr Delforge, 78, notes a shift in the industry with customers pushing for natural, sustainable fragrances.

 

"Perfumes have existed for 5,000 years and the scents haven't changed much," he says.

 

"But today... customers want to know the artisan making their perfume. It reminds me of when I started selling perfume from my garage in the 1980s."

 

Millennials are the driving force behind the trends reshaping the sector, according to beauty industry magazine Cosmetics Business. It says they want more transparency and more gender-neutral scents - often based on citrus smells.

 

Citrus is one of the seven families of smells; with floral, chypre (oak moss with fruity notes), and amber often regarded as female scents, while fougère (lavender/woody) woody and leather are often grouped as male scents.

 

 

"Who am I to say what gender a scent should have?" says Romain Pantoustier

"A person is born liking one specific scent family and that preference rarely changes," says Mr Delforge, whose eponymous line carries 40 eau de parfums, with each 100ml bottle costing €51 ($57; £45).

 

In the heart of Namur's old city, Romain Pantoustier, "le nez" or nose in French, provides customers with transparency about the ingredients used in his perfumes.

 

The glass bottles of his Nez Zen range are refillable, the perfumes are gender neutral and also vegan, avoiding the musks from deer and other animal-derived produce were used in the past. Deer musk is specifically a secretion produced from the scent gland of the male musk deer.

 

An international convention covers the trade in musk but most products in the perfume industry now contain synthetic versions of the previously used animal scents. This is the one area where millennials definitely prefer synthetic ingredients instead of natural ones in their perfumes.

 

In the past other animal-derived ingredients used in perfume included ambergris from sperm whales, produced by the mammal's digestive system, and castoreum - a secretion made by beavers.

 

Two perfumers can choose the same ingredients but produce a different smell

Synthetic versions of lily of the valley - one of the world's most expensive flowers - are also available. Such use of synthetics can also make products more cost effective, but often make use of petroleum and its by-products.

 

Mr Pantoustier, 40, says nature is the basis of his inspiration. He quizzes each customer on their favourite colours, textures, feelings and hobbies before recommending a fragrance. He also designs tailor-made perfumes for individual clients for €1,500.

 

"When a person comes in I ask them what they like. I use words to create a mapping in my head to guide them through my fragrances," he says, while drinking water flavoured with an edible scent. "Who am I to say what gender a scent should have?"

 

The Frenchman founded the Belgium-based business in August 2016 with his wife Aurélie, after working as a scent designer for some of Europe's biggest perfumers.

 

"I wanted to move away from a more industrial approach to perfuming, and get back to a much more artistic and emotional approach."

 

Global Trade

More from the BBC's series taking an international perspective on trade:

 

The garlic farmers who love Trump's tariffs

Zut alors! The Americans who are farming snails

The shareholders fighting to make oil firms greener

Should Germany spend more to revive its economy?

Across the Atlantic, Charna Ethier also used to work for large firms in the fragrance sector, before founding the Providence Perfume Company in 2009.

 

"I noticed there was a demand for natural botanical smells that was being neglected," she says. "There's lots of greenwashing in the sector."

 

Inspired by her childhood on a farm on the US east coast, she says many modern shoppers are so used to synthetic smells in perfumes they do not know what natural options smell like.

 

Ms Ethier, 44, distils fruits, flowers, wood and plants in a pure alcohol spirits base to create her natural perfume line. Providence Perfume's website says the final products contain no synthetics, petrochemicals, fragrance oils, dyes, parabens, phthalates or chemical fragrances.

 

All her perfumes are also gender neutral, something she says is particularly appreciated by her younger clientele.

 

"Millennials don't want to wear their mom's perfume. They want to smell different, like leather, crushed herbs and smoke," she explains. "I get a lot of women saying they don't want to smell like flowers."

 

Gender fluid fragrances have surged in popularity in recent years: 51% of all perfume launches in 2018 were gender neutral, up from 17% in 2010, according to industry figures.

 

At Coty, the world's largest fragrance firm, with 77 brands including Chloé, Hugo Boss and Gucci, trends for more gender fluid, sustainable and exclusive products are closely monitored.

 

Coty, the world's largest fragrance company, launched its first unisex fragrance in 2019 to keep pace with customer demand

"The companies who are winning are the industry leaders that have refreshed their proposition, and new brands because millennials are brand agnostics," says Laurence Lienhard, Coty's vice president of consumer marketing insights.

 

Ms Lienhard says Coty has also worked hard over the past five years to use less packaging and more organic ingredients.

 

"It's time for bigger brands to take a stand - so we are working on it more and more.".

 

Ms Lienhard adds that demand for gender fluid, universal scents is particularly strong in English-speaking countries. It released its first unisex offering, Gucci Mémoire d'une Odeur, earlier in 2019. The scent is marketed in both men's and women's sections of perfume stores.

 

Back in Belgium, Mr Delforge peruses through the French Perfumers Society's official perfumes guide, which he calls "the bible" of perfumery.

 

"This book describes all the different scents, but two perfumers could choose the same ingredients and create a different smell. It is like different chefs making different types of mayonnaise. It's still mayonnaise but it doesn't taste the same," he explains. "Perfume is the same."--BBC

 

 

 

Pound soars on exit poll forecast of Tory majority

The pound surged against the dollar after an exit poll suggested the Conservative Party was on course for a comfortable general election victory.

 

Sterling gained 3% to $1.35 - its highest level since May last year - on hopes that a big majority would remove uncertainty over Brexit.

 

The pound also jumped to a three-and-a-half-year high against the euro.

 

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has pledged to take the UK out of the European Union by 31 January.

 

Election results 2019: Tories on course to win majority - exit poll

Laura Kuenssberg: Exit poll could signal historic change ahead

What is the forecast election result in my area?

Exit polls indicated that the Tories could achieve an 86-seat majority. The BBC's economics editor, Faisal Islam, said a big win for the Conservatives pushed leaving the EU without a deal into the distance, and the financial markets are breathing a sigh of relief.

 

"The most disruptive form of no deal has been taken off the table. The market reaction is a reflection not just of the result, but of the fact that [a big majority] gives the prime minister room for manoeuvre."

 

France's minister for Europe, Amelie de Montchalin, said indications of a decisive victory for the Conservatives had provided clarity over Brexit.

 

"What's certain tonight is that this clarification seems to have come," she said. "The most important thing with Brexit is not the way we divorce, it's what we build afterwards."

 

Pound v Dollar

 

Capital Economics chief UK economist Paul Dales said there is no guarantee that the exit poll numbers will be confirmed as the results of the general election come in overnight.

 

But he said: "If the Conservatives do win a majority, passing a Brexit divorce deal in the coming weeks would remove any risk of a no deal Brexit on 31 January, reduce the immediate uncertainty and lift business investment at least a bit.

 

"And in a Budget in February, the Conservatives would probably give the economy an extra kick by raising public investment by up to £20bn.

 

"Together with the removal of some risk of Labour's anti-business policies, this explains why the pound has already risen from $1.31 to $1.34."

 

The poll projected that Labour has lost 71 seats to 191.--BBC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 


 

INVESTORS DIARY 2019

 


Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

 


 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 


Companies under Cautionary

 

 

 


 

 

 

 


Bindura Nickel Corporation

 

 

 


Padenga Holdings

 

 

 


Delta Corporation

 

 

 


Meikles Limited

 

 

 


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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

 


 

 


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