Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 07 March 2019

Fri Mar 8 07:11:46 CAT 2019

 <http://www.bulls.co.zw/> Bulls.co.zw        <mailto:bulls at bulls.co.zw>
Views & Comments        <http://www.bulls.co.zw/blog> Bullish Thoughts
<http://www.twitter.com/BullsBears2010> Twitter
<https://www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe> Facebook
<http://www.linkedin.com/pub/bulls-n-bears-zimbabwe/57/577/72> LinkedIn
<mailto:info at bulls.co.zw?subject=Unsubscribe> Unsubscribe

Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 07 March 2019

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Zimbabwe Stock Exchange Update

Market Turnover RTGS$7,436,658.73 with foreign buys at RTGS$3,024,275.51 and
foreign sales were RTGS$5,104,203.01. Total trades were 133.

The All Share index dropped by a significant 3.07 points  to close at 141.94
points. HIPPO VALLEY ESTATES  led the shakers with a $0.2500 loss to close
at $1.0000, DELTA  eased $0.0840 to settle at $2.6035 whilst SEEDCO  was
$0.0600 down at $1.9000. CASSAVA SMARTECH  also decreased by $0.0571 to end
at $1.3804 and BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO  traded $0.0499 weaker at $32.9501.

Trading in the positive was AFRICAN SUN  which added $0.0100 to $0.1500, OK
ZIMBABWE  rose by $0.0047 to settle at $0.2585 and DAIRIBORD  was $0.0030
stronger at $0.1490. MEIKLES  also increased by $0.0025 to $0.5225 and
ARISTON  was marginally up by $0.0009 to close at $0.0300.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

  Global Currencies & Equity Markets

Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe central bank denies new currency rate being fixed

(Reuters) - The head of Zimbabwe’s central bank denied on Thursday that it
had fixed the exchange rate of the country’s new transitional currency,
whose value it said it would let the market decide.

Zimbabwe ditched a discredited 1:1 dollar peg for its dollar-surrogate bond
notes and electronic dollars on Feb 20, merging them into a transitional
currency called the RTGS dollar.

The value of that currency, which authorities said they would float, has
held unchanged at 2.5 to the U.S. dollar since Feb. 22.

The country’s economy has been crippled by a cash crunch and plans to allow
ordinary Zimbabweans to exchange bond notes and electronic dollars for U.S.
dollars at banks have yet to be implemented.

On the black market, the RTGS rate was 3.8 to the dollar on Thursday,
compared to 3.5 last week.

Concerns that the government is resisting moves to allow a further
devaluation of the RTGS dollar has discouraged those holding U.S. dollars
from selling them at the prevailing rate.

‘MARKET MANIPULATION’

Ministry of finance secretary George Guvamatanga saw room for a further RTGS
dollar devaluation, which he said the market would determine.

He told the committee that volumes traded on the black market were thin and
that if rates on the forex interbank market rose too high, very few
businesses could afford to buy dollars.

John Robertson, a Harare-based economist, said the currency market was still
being manipulated. “What they are trying to do is to ensure stability but
market forces may decide otherwise,” he said.

The central bank has allowed mining companies and other exporters to sell
their dollars on the interbank market, thereby seeking to create a pool of
dollars to pay for vital imports such as drugs, electricity and fuel.

Mangudya said Zimbabwe imported fuel worth $173 million in January and
February through credit lines from foreign banks, which was enough to cover
local demand during the period.

He said the fuel shortages that have been experienced since the start of the
year were caused by some dealers failing to raise enough money to buy U.S.
dollars for fuel imports and delays in supplies following payments.

On Tuesday, the government allowed mining companies and some other
businesses to import their own fuel. Mangudya said supplies should normalise
this month. Such promises have previously failed to end shortages.

Kenya

Kenya's shilling strengthens to its highest in four years

(Reuters) - The Kenyan shilling strengthened against the dollar to close at
its highest level in four years on Thursday, buoyed by increased hard
currency inflows and a drop in demand for imports, traders said. 

At the 1330 GMT close of trade, the shilling traded at 99.60/80 per dollar,
a level it last traded at in March 2015. It has been stuck tantalisingly
close to breaking the 100 level in the past two months before the move in
Thursday's session. 

There hasn't been much demand for dollars by importers, offering further
momentum to the currency, a second currency trader at another commercial
bank said.

The currency of the East African nation is one of the best performers
against the dollar in Africa this year, Refinitiv data showed. 

Remittances, hard currencies sent abroad by Kenyans living abroad, surged to
record highs last year, in step with earnings from the tourism sector, which
also soared on the back of

increased arrivals.

The current account deficit narrowed to 5.1 percent of GDP in the 12 months
to last November from 6.5 percent a year earlier, the central bank's data
showed. 

Import requirements rose as the government built a modern railway between
Nairobi and the port of Mombasa, but they have since tapered off after the
construction of the line was

completed in 2017. 

Expansions of private sector activity fell to its slowest pace in 15 months
in February, the Markit Stanbic Bank Kenya Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
showed on Tuesday, further

pointing to the squeeze in demand for imports. 

       <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Asia

Asia stocks dealt fresh blow as China exports sink

(Reuters) - Asian stocks shuddered lower on Friday after shockingly weak
export data from China heightened market fears about a global economic
slowdown, a day after European policymakers slashed growth forecasts for the
bloc.

Beijing reported exports in February tumbled 20.7 percent from a year
earlier, far beneath forecasts of a 4.8 percent drop and more than erasing
January’s surprise jump.

Analysts cautioned the timing of the Lunar New Year made it difficult to
draw a true signal from the noise but the scale of the miss was alarming.

Adding insult to injury, China’s leading brokerage Citic Securities issued a
rare “sell” rating on the Shanghai-listed shares of People’s Insurance Group
of China (PICC) sending them down almost 10 percent.

Shanghai blue chips quickly extended early losses to be down 2.9 percent,
the sharpest daily fall since October, while the dollar climbed on the yuan.

Japan’s Nikkei dropped 1.9 percent and Australia 0.9 percent. MSCI’s
broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan skidded 1.1 percent to a
two-week trough.

E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 eased 0.1 percent.

The mood had already been brittle after the European Central Bank slashed
its growth forecasts and surprised everyone with a new round of policy
stimulus, leaving investors fearing the worst for the global economy.

ECB President Mario Draghi said the economy was in “a period of continued
weakness and pervasive uncertainty” as he pushed out a planned rate hike and
instead offered banks a new round of cheap loans.

The reversal came in the same week that Canada’s central bank took a sudden
dovish turn and dismal data from Australia to the UK instilled a sense of
foreboding in markets.

Yields on German and French 10-year bonds dived to their lowest since 2016,
while banking stocks took a beating. The euro duly sank to depths last seen
in mid-2017, sending the safe-haven U.S. dollar and yen surging.

EURO IN A HOLE

The next hurdle for investors will be U.S. payrolls data for February, with
analysts uncertain how much payback there might be for January’s outsized
jump. There was also a chance the jobless rate could fall by more than
forecast given the recent strength in employment.

The numbers are still likely to highlight the relative outperformance of the
U.S. economy, especially against the European Union, and further encourage
dollar bulls.

The greenback reached a new 2019 high against a basket of currencies and was
last at 97.548.

The euro cowered at $1.1194, having suffered its biggest one-day loss
against the dollar since June 2018 when the ECB last pushed back plans for a
rate hike.

The euro also shed over 1 percent on the yen overnight and was last trading
at 124.70 yen. The safe-harbour Japanese currency was one of the few to hold
its own on the dollar at 111.40.

In commodity markets, the rise in the dollar restrained gold to $1,287.19
per ounce.

Oil prices eased as U.S. crude output and exports climbed to record highs,
undermining efforts by producer club OPEC to tighten global markets.

U.S. crude was last down 35 cents at $56.31 a barrel, while Brent crude fell
49 cents to $65.81.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

China Feb copper imports fall 11.6 pct y/y - Rtrs calculation

(Reuters) - China’s unwrought copper imports fell by 11.6 percent
year-on-year in February, according to Reuters calculations based on customs
data released on Friday, in a sign of waning demand for the metal considered
to be an economic bellwether.

Arrivals of unwrought copper — including anode, refined, alloy and
semi-finished copper products — into China, the world’s top consumer of the
metal, came in at 790,000 tonnes in the first two months of the year, the
General Administration of Customs said.

That implies a figure of 311,000 tonnes for February, down from 352,000
tonnes a year earlier and down 35.1 percent from a bumper 479,000 tonnes in
January 2019, a month that had three more days and likely saw restocking
ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. 

Copper flat; set for weekly decline on supply pressure

(Reuters) - London copper prices were little changed on Friday with the
market set for a weekly decline, as rising inventories and a drop in the
premium for directly available metal signalled easing supply squeeze.

There was additional pressure on prices as Asian stocks shuddered lower
after the European Central Bank slashed its growth forecasts and surprised
everyone with a new of policy stimulus, leaving investors fearing the worst
for the global economy.

COPPER: Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was unchanged at
$6,423 a tonne 0342 GMT, on track for a weekly drop of almost 1 percent. The
most-traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange lost 0.5
percent to 49,170 yuan ($7,317.29) a tonne.

STOCKS: Inventories in LME-registered warehouses rose to 120,075 tonnes from
116,872 tonnes on Wednesday, the lowest since 2008. MCUSTX-TOTAL

TIGHTNESS: Still Jefferies research said the tightness in supplies is
expected to continue.

UNDERSUPPLIED: “Based on our supply and demand forecasts, we expect the
copper market to be undersupplied for the foreseeable future,” it said in a
note.

MINES: “The industry has almost no ability to respond to tighter markets as
new mines take years to bring on line and most existing mines are already
operating at full capacity.”

TRADE WAR: Optimism over the ability of a potential U.S.-China trade deal
and Chinese economic stimulus to push prices higher is fading.

CHINA BUDGET: China’s decision to increase its budget deficit ratio to 2.8
percent this year from 2.6 percent in 2018 is appropriate for the economy,
and leaves room for policymakers to manoeuvre, Finance Minister Liu Kun said
on Thursday.

STIMULUS: A proactive fiscal policy does not mean China will open the
floodgates for stimulus, Liu said at a news conference on the sidelines of
the annual parliamentary meeting in Beijing, reiterating past government
pledges of restraint.

RUSAL: Rusal, the world’s largest aluminium producer outside China, said on
Thursday its business was back to normal after U.S. sanctions were lifted in
January, and reiterated a positive outlook for the global aluminium market.

INVESTORS DIARY 2019

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Zimbabwe 

Independence Day

Zimbabwe

18 Apr 2019 

Good Friday

19 Apr 2019

Easter Saturday

20 Apr 2019

Easter Sunday

21 Apr 2019

Easter Monday

22 Apr 2019

Workers Day

01 May  2019

Africa Day

25 May 2019

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of
Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not
constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or
subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has
been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or
warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All
opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without
notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be
suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth
companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than
the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any
other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability
whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its
contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this
report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent
investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of
any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are
for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

(c) 2019 Web: <http:// www.bulls.co.zw >  www.bulls.co.zw Email:
<mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> info at bulls.co.zw Tel: +263 4 2927658 Cell: +263 77
344 1674

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

Telephone:      <tel:%2B263%204%202927658> +263 4 2927658

Cellphone:      <tel:%2B263%2077%20344%201674> +263 77 344 1674

Alt. Email:       <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> info at bulls.co.zw  

Website:
<http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bulls.co.zw&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AF
QjCNH8LYgdY55h-XKseuM8Kpr-JKdfhQ> www.bulls.co.zw 

Blog:
<http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bulls.co.zw%2Fblog&sa=D&sntz=1
&usg=AFQjCNFoIy6F9IXAiYnSoPSgWDYsr8Sqtw> www.bulls.co.zw/blog

Twitter:         @bullsbears2010

LinkedIn:       Bulls n Bears Zimbabwe

Facebook:
<http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FBullsBearsZimba
bwe&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNGhb_A5rp4biV1dGHbgiAhUxQqBXA>
www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe

Skype:         Bulls.Bears 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20190308/feae0062/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image001.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 3653 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20190308/feae0062/attachment-0004.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image002.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 159128 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20190308/feae0062/attachment-0005.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image003.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 37760 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20190308/feae0062/attachment-0006.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image004.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 4846 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20190308/feae0062/attachment-0007.jpg>