Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 08 March 2019

Fri Mar 8 08:06:03 CAT 2019

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Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 08 March 2019

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*  Zimbabwe central bank denies new currency rate being fixed

*  African telecoms titan MTN slims down with $1 bln divestment plan

*  S.African regulator grants Eskom smaller tariff hikes than sought

*  S.African rand's recent slump is over, risks priced in

*  Standard Bank posts leaner FY earnings growth

*  Kenya's shilling rises to its strongest level since July 2015

*  South Africa's Q4 current account deficit narrows to 2.2 pct of GDP

*  Absa could cut hundreds of jobs, union says

*  European Central Bank acts to boost struggling eurozone

*  Vodafone: Huawei ban will set back 5G

*  US ambassador defends farming record on chicken and beef

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Zimbabwe central bank denies new currency rate being fixed

HARARE (Reuters) - The head of Zimbabwe’s central bank denied on Thursday that it had fixed the exchange rate of the country’s new transitional currency, whose value it said it would let the market decide.

Zimbabwe ditched a discredited 1:1 dollar peg for its dollar-surrogate bond notes and electronic dollars on Feb 20, merging them into a transitional currency called the RTGS dollar.

The value of that currency, which authorities said they would float, has held unchanged at 2.5 to the U.S. dollar since Feb. 22.

The country’s economy has been crippled by a cash crunch and plans to allow ordinary Zimbabweans to exchange bond notes and electronic dollars for U.S. dollars at banks have yet to be implemented.

On the black market, the RTGS rate was 3.8 to the dollar on Thursday, compared to 3.5 last week.

Concerns that the government is resisting moves to allow a further devaluation of the RTGS dollar has discouraged those holding U.S. dollars from selling them at the prevailing rate.

“We have not fixed the exchange rate and we will not fix it,” Central Bank Governor John Mangudya told a parliamentary committee.

‘MARKET MANIPULATION’

Ministry of finance secretary George Guvamatanga saw room for a further RTGS dollar devaluation, which he said the market would determine.

He told the committee that volumes traded on the black market were thin and that if rates on the forex interbank market rose too high, very few businesses could afford to buy dollars.

“We know between the two of us, where that exchange rate should be and where it should end but we will allow the market to get there,” Guvamatanga said.

John Robertson, a Harare-based economist, said the currency market was still being manipulated. “What they are trying to do is to ensure stability but market forces may decide otherwise,” he said.

The central bank has allowed mining companies and other exporters to sell their dollars on the interbank market, thereby seeking to create a pool of dollars to pay for vital imports such as drugs, electricity and fuel.

Mangudya said Zimbabwe imported fuel worth $173 million in January and February through credit lines from foreign banks, which was enough to cover local demand during the period.

He said the fuel shortages that have been experienced since the start of the year were caused by some dealers failing to raise enough money to buy U.S. dollars for fuel imports and delays in supplies following payments.

On Tuesday, the government allowed mining companies and some other businesses to import their own fuel. Mangudya said supplies should normalise this month. Such promises have previously failed to end shortages.

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African telecoms titan MTN slims down with $1 bln divestment plan

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - MTN Group announced on Thursday a $1 billion divestment programme over the next three years that will slim down Africa’s biggest mobile phone operator and refocus it on high-growth markets on the continent and in the Middle East.

Founded with Pretoria’s help after the end of white minority rule in 1994, MTN has been one of South Africa’s biggest corporate success stories, but clashes with regulators in Nigeria, Uganda and elsewhere have crimped growth.

Chief Executive Rob Shuter, hired from Vodafone in 2017, has drawn up a turnaround plan that includes shedding loss-making e-commerce assets and exiting countries where MTN has no prospect of reaching second position by market share.

At the same time, Shuter is pushing the company into mobile financial services, music streaming and mobile gaming, betting on a burgeoning young tech-savvy population to offset falling prices for basic telecoms services.

“What we really want to say to the investment community is that we’ve got a company with very good growth prospects and a very specific plan to simplify and modernise the group,” Shuter told Reuters.

As part of the review, the South African company has agreed to sell its minority stake in Botswana’s Mascom for $300 million. It sold its sole European unit in Cyprus last year.

Shuter has not named the countries that MTN was preparing to exit, but his suggestion that it would focus on high-growth, stable geographies suggest smaller businesses in Liberia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, and worn-torn Syria, South Sudan and Yemen might be cut, analysts said.

MTN said its investments in tower companies and e-commerce platforms like African online retailer Jumia were valued at 40 billion rand and would be sold over time as they were not long-term strategic assets.

Shares in the company surged 15 percent to 87.39 rand, on course for their biggest one-day rise in since 2008.

“They are focusing more on telecoms, which is the business that they do, and they are trying to stay away from everything that distracts them. I don’t think that’s a bad thing,” said Bright Khumalo, an analyst at Vestact in Johannesburg.

PROFIT LEAPS

In the last financial year MTN reported an 85 percent surge in headline EPS, the main profit measure in South Africa, to 337 cents.

However, the bottom line is still not at even half the level MTN reported in 2015, the year before it agreed to pay a $1.7 billion fine in Nigeria for missing a deadline to cut off unregistered SIM card users.

The fine was reduced from $5.2 billion after MTN made concessions, including a promise to list its Nigeria unit.

The flotation of MTN Nigeria, which accounts for a third of MTN’s core profit or EBITDA, is likely to take place by the end of June, the company said.

The unit has also been embroiled in other rows with the Nigerian authorities. It agreed to pay $53 million in December to resolve a dispute with the Central Bank of Nigeria and is involved in a court battle with the Nigerian attorney general over $2 billion in back taxes.

MTN has also faced run-ins with authorities in other countries, including Uganda, where four senior executives were deported in recent weeks on accusations of compromising national security.

($1 = 14.2577 rand)

S.African regulator grants Eskom smaller tariff hikes than sought

PRETORIA (Reuters) - South Africa’s energy regulator Nersa on Thursday granted struggling state power firm Eskom average power price increases that were far below what the utility had asked for, saying it aimed to balance the interests of the company and the public.

Nersa decides every few years how much revenue cash-strapped Eskom is allowed to earn from its customers via electricity tariffs, based on forecasts of its power sales and costs.

Nersa said Eskom could hike tariffs by 9.41 percent in the 2019/20 financial year, 8.10 percent in 2020/21 and 5.22 percent in 2021/22.

Those tariff increases do not include previous awards Nersa gave Eskom last year, for costs incurred over 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17, which will be recovered over a four-year period.

Eskom wanted power price increases of 17.1 percent, 15.4 percent and 15.5 percent over the next three years in its latest multi-year price determination application submitted last year.

On Thursday Nersa also allowed Eskom to recover 3.869 billion rand ($270 million) from its customers for electricity supplied in the 2017/18 financial year, significantly below the 21.6 billion rand that Eskom had applied for.

Nersa typically awards Eskom less than it asks for, as it only allows the company to recover costs which it deems prudently incurred.

Eskom supplies more than 90 percent of the power in Africa’s most industrialised economy. But it is grappling with breakdowns at its creaking coal-fired power station fleet which forced it to implement some of the worst power outages in several years last month.

The government has promised to inject 23 billion rand a year into Eskom over the next three years to help the utility meet repayments on its 420 billion rand debt burden.

($1 = 14.3353 rand)

S.African rand's recent slump is over, risks priced in

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - The recent slump in South Africa’s rand is over and the currency will hover around current levels in the coming year as investors shrug off credit rating reviews and domestic elections, a Reuters poll found.

At the time of the last poll in early February the rand was up around 7 percent on the year and forecasters then said it would only lose about half those gains in the next 12 months.

But the currency shed the whole 7 percent last month as concerns about the U.S.-China trade war and power blackouts cast a shadow over South Africa’s economic prospects.

So in a Feb. 28-March 5 poll of 30 foreign exchange strategists, the 12-month consensus was slashed from February’s. The rand is now forecast to be at 14.20 per dollar in a year compared to 13.85 predicted last month.

Heavily traded, the rand often either leads or lags the pack of emerging market currencies in bouts of market volatility due to changes in global risk sentiment rather than investors’ view of local fundamentals.

“The rand would probably continue to swing up and down until the elections in May,” said Rafiq Raji, managing director and chief economist at Macroafricaintel in Lagos.

On Tuesday, the rand firmed after data showed the recovery from a recession in the first half of 2018 continued in the final quarter. It later retreated, however, and was trading around 14.3 per dollar on Thursday.

Official data showed South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed to 2.2 percent of gross domestic product in the fourth quarter, a good omen for the local currency, and a Reuters poll found economic growth was expected to accelerate.[ECILT/ZA]

But fiscal constraints and weak growth were highlighted in the budget last month amid efforts to save power utility Eskom, exposing the limited room President Cyril Ramaphosa has to fix the economy ahead of an election in May.

Ramaphosa’s ruling African National Congress will face stiff competition from other political parties looking to increase seats in parliament.

“Unless something highly negative happens, like a big Ramaphosa scandal, I think most of the envisaged risks have been priced in,” said Raji.

Business confidence fell to a five-month low in February.

Investors are also awaiting a review of South Africa’s credit rating by Moody’s, the only major agency that still assigns it investment-grade status, at the end of this month.

Standard Bank posts leaner FY earnings growth

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Standard Bank, South Africa’s largest lender by assets, on Thursday said its full-year earnings rose at less than half the growth rate of 2017, as the impact of adverse markets offset strong performances in its retail banking division.

The lender’s headline earnings per share (HEPS) for the year ended Dec. 31 rose 7 percent to 1,748 cents ($1.23), compared with 1,620 cents a year ago.

HEPS is the main profit measure in South Africa, which strips out certain one-off items.

The bank had delivered sustainable earnings and improved its return on equity to 18 percent, underpinned by the strength and breadth of its franchise, Standard Bank CEO Sim Tshabalala said.

“In 2019, we will build on the franchise momentum from 2018, continue to simplify, rationalise and digitise and seek ways to accelerate our delivery,” he said, adding the bank expects an uptick in growth in South Africa and across the continent this year.

The lender said a weaker-than-expected South African economy, slow progress in policy changes and higher taxes weighed on confidence and demand for credit, with loans in its retail and business bank growing just 3 percent at home.

This compared with 22 percent elsewhere in Africa, which, combined with a 30 percent drop in impairment charges, helped boost earnings by 10 percent.

Standard Bank’s corporate and investment bank, however, as well as its joint venture with Industrial and Commercial Bank China (ICBC), were hit by a rout in global markets that has seen investment banks, asset managers and insurers suffer.

Earnings in its investment banking division slipped 2 percent, while its return on equity for the unit fell to 19.3 percent from 22 percent. ICBC Standard recorded a loss of $14.9 million for the year.

Standard Bank announced a final dividend of 540 cents per share, resulting in an increase of 7 percent for the year. Its common equity tier-1 capital ratio stood at 13.5 percent.

The bank’s shares were up 0.72 percent at 189.45 rand per share, as of 0705 GMT.

Kenya's shilling rises to its strongest level since July 2015

NAIROBI (Reuters) - The Kenyan shilling jumped to its strongest level against the dollar in more than three-and-a-half years on Thursday, buoyed by increased hard currency inflows and a drop in demand for imports, traders said.

At 1141 GMT, the shilling traded at 99.75/95 per dollar, a level it last traded at in July 2015. It has been stuck tantalisingly close to breaking the 100 level in the past two months.

“The shilling is strengthening because flows are not getting absorbed by demand,” said a trader from another commercial bank.

A second currency trader at another commercial bank said there hadn’t been much demand for dollars by importers, offering further momentum to the currency.

Remittances, hard currencies sent abroad by Kenyans living abroad, surged to record highs last year, in step with earnings from the tourism sector, which also soared on the back of increased arrivals.

South Africa's Q4 current account deficit narrows to 2.2 pct of GDP

PRETORIA (Reuters) - South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed to 2.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter, from a revised 3.7 percent in the third quarter, central bank data showed on Thursday.

Africa’s most advanced economy is heavily reliant on portfolio inflows to finance gaping current account and budget deficits that have widened in recent years as tax revenues and fixed investments stalled, mainly over weak economic growth and policy uncertainty.

The rand was largely unmoved soon after the release, trading at 14.28 per dollar.

In January the rand advanced more than 5 percent against the dollar as signs the United States’ central bank would keep lending rates low spurred a flood of money into emerging markets.

The currency has since softened as the crisis at state utility Eskom put the brakes on demand.

The quarterly trade balance showed a larger surplus of 71.8 billion rand ($5.03 billion) in the three months to the end of December, from a surplus of 10.2 billion rand in the previous three months.

The central bank said the improved trade balance was due to the higher value and volume of exports while the price of imports declined. South Africa’s terms of trade, however, deteriorated due to the weaker currency.

($1 = 14.2876 rand)

Absa could cut hundreds of jobs, union says

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South African bank Absa could cut hundreds of jobs at its retail and business banking unit as part of a planned restructuring, a union representing workers in the financial sector said on Thursday.

Absa issued a notice to the Sasbo union last week, saying that the jobs of 827 employees could be affected by the restructuring, Sasbo’s assistant general secretary Philip Landman said.

The bank, which has almost 30,000 employees in total according to the notice it sent to Sasbo, said in a statement its restructuring would involve both redundancies and new opportunities across its business.

“It is only once the realignment is complete that the total number of people who have either been appointed to new roles or have left the organization will be known with certainty,” it said in the statement.

Sasbo is holding talks with Absa to try to limit job losses and is testing the business rationale for the restructuring, Landman said.

“This is extremely serious. This is not just an exercise which will culminate in nothing,” he told Reuters.

European Central Bank acts to boost struggling eurozone

Interest rates in the eurozone will not rise until next year at the earliest, the European Central Bank has signalled amid evidence of a slowdown in the 19 countries using the single currency.

The ECB also unveiled a round of fresh stimulus, offering banks cheap loans to try to help revive the economy.

The unexpected moves came as the bank made sharp cuts to its forecasts for both growth and inflation this year.

The announcement sent the euro down by 0.6% against the dollar.

Against the pound, it dropped by 0.1%.

The central bank said rates would remain at their present levels "at least through the end of 2019" rather than its previous guidance of "at least through the summer".

Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, said economic data showed a "sizeable moderation" in growth.

He said economic growth in the euro area was now expected to be 1.1% this year, as against a previous forecast of 1.7%. Inflation is expected to be 1.2%, down from an earlier forecast of 1.6%.

"We are [in] a period of continued weakness and pervasive uncertainty. The near-term growth outlook will be weaker than previously anticipated," Mr Draghi said.

ECB ends €2.5tn eurozone QE stimulus programme

Eurozone's economic outlook darkens as growth risks increase

The extent of the measures announced by the ECB underline its concerns over slowing growth in the eurozone.

Its decision to push back on any plans to raise rates follows similar moves from central banks around the world, including the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.

The European Central Bank is rolling out the economic artillery again.

A marked slowdown in economic growth - confirmed today in official data as just 0.2% in the final quarter of 2018 - seems to have prompted the bank to take some action.

Not the really big guns, at least at this stage. No cut in interest rates (they are so low already that that might not be realistic anyway) and no revival of quantitative easing.

But the bank is using two tools that do suggest it is becoming more concerned.

One is known as forward guidance, an indication of the likely path of interest rates in the future. They are currently rock bottom and the Bank now says said they are likely to stay that way until the end of the year.

Previously the timescale was through the summer. This guidance is not a promise, but it does tell lenders and borrowers something about when rates most likely to be changed.

The ECB has also announced plans for a new round of what are known as targeted long-term refinancing operations or TLTRO. If you are still conscious after reading that, these are loans made to commercial banks intended to stimulate more lending to households and business.

They are also intended to - as the ECB statement puts it - ensure the smooth transmission of monetary policy. Which means spreading the effect of the low interest rates throughout the eurozone economy.

As well as a slowdown in the eurozone - Italy tipped into recession at the end of last year - Mr Draghi also pointed to the impact of trade wars and other factors.

"The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook are still tilted to the downside, on account of the persistence of uncertainties related to geopolitical factors, the threat of protectionism and vulnerabilities in the emerging markets," Mr Draghi said.

The new lending facility for the banking sector will be known as Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations.

Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics, said the guidance on the next rate rise and the financing for banks was "more accommodative than the markets had anticipated".

"We doubt, however, that the new measures will be enough to reverse the economic slowdown," he said.--BBC

Vodafone: Huawei ban will set back 5G

For some time, mobile operators have been briefing reporters in private that a complete ban on using Huawei equipment would be seriously damaging to the UK's 5G future.

But on Thursday morning, Vodafone came out with a stark warning in public: stop us from using Huawei gear and 5G will be delayed, at huge cost to us and the UK.

The government's Supply Chain Review is currently examining whether the controversial Chinese company should play a part in the rollout of super-fast 5G, amid security concerns and US pressure for a complete ban.

But Vodafone's chief technology officer, Scott Petty, has now said a ban would require his company to strip Huawei equipment out of its existing 4G network.

"The cost of doing that runs into the hundreds of millions and will dramatically affect our 5G business case," he said.

"We would have to slow down the deployment of 5G very significantly."

What are countries worried about?

There are fears that China is using Huawei as a proxy so it can spy on rival nations and scoop up useful information.

And its products are regularly subjected to security testing by the UK's GCHQ intelligence agency.

Huawei, however, is keen to portray itself as a private company owned by its employees, with no ties to the Chinese government beyond those of a law-abiding taxpayer.

But critics question how free any major Chinese business can be from Beijing's influence.

And they point out Huawei's media-shy founder, Ren Zhengfei, was a former engineer in the country's army and joined the Communist Party in 1978.

What's going on with Huawei?

Mr Petty said the UK was a leader in 5G readiness and would fall behind if Huawei was banned.

He stressed that Huawei equipment was not being used in sensitive parts of the 5G network, which Vodafone plans to start rolling out later this year.

And its policy had been framed by advice from the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC).

Vodafone's general counsel, Helen Lamprell, said there was no evidence that Huawei's equipment posed a security threat.

"Huge impact to the government's ambition to be a leader in 5G, huge cost to the industry... for what?" she asked.

"If there's evidence, we would love to see it - but so far we haven't seen any evidence."

Vodafone is using the US firm Cisco at the core of its 5G network, the most sensitive area, and equipment from Sweden's Ericsson elsewhere.

Huawei's equipment is just being used at the radio masts, which Vodafone says is a very low risk area: hacking any individual mast would not allow access to the wider network.

Vodafone also joined calls for all telecoms equipment-makers to undergo the same kind of scrutiny as Huawei.

"Huawei are subject to a lot of scrutiny which we think is great," Ms Lamprell said. "But they're not the only vendor and the same engineering issues apply everywhere."

Roaming charges

Ms Lamprell also refused to rule out the return of roaming charges in the event of the UK leaving the European Union without a withdrawal agreement in place.

Vodafone would far prefer to maintain the status quo for travellers, she said, but could not be sure what European mobile companies would charge after Brexit to handle calls from UK travellers.

"What we have to face is: are we going to get a massive bill coming back in the other direction that we can't absorb?" Ms Lamprell said.

Vodafone also revealed that all the mobile operators wanted the limit on phone-mast height increased from 25m (82ft) to 50m.

The mobile operators are under pressure from the government to improve coverage in remote rural areas.--BBC

US ambassador defends farming record on chicken and beef

Washington's ambassador to the UK has defended the US's approach to food hygiene and farming.

Criticism of US food standards was "designed to reduce not increase trade", Woody Johnson told the BBC.

US beef and chicken producers use processes not permitted in the EU, including rinsing chicken carcasses with chlorine.

But Mr Johnson said the UK should accept American meat as part of a post-Brexit trade deal.

"To get a robust trade arrangement, that lifts all boats, it has to include farming and farm products," he said.

Whether the UK should allow imports of US-produced beef and chicken after it leaves the EU is among the most contentious trade questions.

He said Americans believed their food was "cost-effective and humane" and would have taken legal action if they felt there was anything wrong with the safety of their food.

"If I had my choice between chicken that was safe and clean and didn't have campylobacter material and poisons on it... I would take the one that had been cleaned sufficiently," he said.

Does the US have less food poisoning?

The ambassador defended the practice of treating meat with chlorinated water, telling the BBC that in the US, "we have the lowest levels of food poisoning".

But that's not what the US figures say. The most common bacteria in chicken that cause food poisoning are campylobacter and salmonella. According to the US Centers for Disease Control, there are 1.3 million illnesses from campylobacter and 1.2 million illnesses from salmonella a year. That means about four in every thousand people get sick.

In 2017 Public Health England, which pulls together data from across the UK, recorded 63,946 confirmed cases of infection from campylobacter and 10,089 infections from salmonella. That's one in a thousand and 0.2 in a thousand people respectively.

So the US has four times as many confirmed cases of campylobacter per thousand people as the UK - and twenty times as many cases of salmonella. About 450 people die of salmonella a year in the US, whereas in the UK deaths are very rare.

Read more: How safe is chlorine-washed chicken?

UK farmer organisations have argued that while US production methods are safe, animal welfare and environmental standards are lower than in the UK.

Will a UK-US trade deal lower food standards in the UK?

US urges UK to embrace chlorinated chicken

Mr Johnson rejected that. "American farmers care about their land and their animals as much as they do here. A lot of these statements are designed, perhaps by the EU, to create barriers to US farm products," he said.

He said 90% of American farms were owned by families and cited his own mother, who he said continued to drive a tractor on the family's organic farm into her 90s.

He added that he had confidence that whatever the outcome of Brexit, the "special relationship" between the US and the UK would continue. "Our relationship is more important than ever," he said.--BBC

INVESTORS DIARY 2019

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Mash

AGM

Boardroom, ZB Life Towers, 77 Jason Moyo Avenue

18 March 2019 12pm

Zimbabwe 

Independence Day

Zimbabwe

18 Apr 2019 

Good Friday

19 Apr 2019

Easter Saturday

20 Apr 2019

Easter Sunday

21 Apr 2019

Easter Monday

22 Apr 2019

Workers Day

01 May  2019

Africa Day

25 May 2019

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

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