Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 25 March 2019

[Bulls n Bears]

 <http://www.bulls.co.zw/> Bulls.co.zw        <mailto:bulls at bulls.co.zw> Views & Comments        <http://www.bulls.co.zw/blog> Bullish Thoughts        <http://www.twitter.com/BullsBears2010> Twitter         <https://www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe> Facebook           <http://www.linkedin.com/pub/bulls-n-bears-zimbabwe/57/577/72> LinkedIn          <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw?subject=Unsubscribe> Unsubscribe

 


 

 


Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 25 March 2019

 


 

 


 <http://www.nedbank.co.zw/> 

 


 

 


 

 

*  Trade war: US-China to resume face-to-face talks next week

*  South African tax workers to strike over pay dispute

*  Richard Branson calls for new Brexit vote

*  Nigeria's NNPC plans to revamp refineries to cut fuel imports

*  The Disney-Fox giant in five charts

*  South Africa's rand flat after post Fed rally

*  Italy joins China's New Silk Road project

*  Tanzania to conclude talks for delayed LNG project in September

*  Is Apple about to expand its TV business?

*  Tunisia's benchmark interest rate held at 7.75 pct

*  Nigeria's central bank sees 3 pct GDP growth in 2019

*  Global markets fall amid slowdown fears

*  Kenya shilling strengthens, helped by inflows into government bonds

*  Suspended Steinhoff CFO helps authorities with fraud investigation

*  Eskom power cuts to hit South Africa GDP -Goldman Sachs

 

 

 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 


 

                                      

Trade war: US-China to resume face-to-face talks next week

US officials plan to travel to China next week to resume face-to-face talks aimed at ending a trade war between them, the White house has confirmed.

 

And Chinese officials will travel to the US for further talks in Washington in early April.

 

The US and China have imposed tariffs on billions of dollars' worth of one another's goods over the past year.

 

A truce at a G20 meeting in December made way for talks, but negotiations have at times been rocky.

 

Despite that US President Donald Trump has cast talks in a positive light, saying they are going "very well".

 

Official parties

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will fly to Beijing to start talks with Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He on Thursday, 28 March.

 

The US principals will be accompanied by deputy trade representative Jeffrey Gerrish and other senior officials from the Office of the United States Trade Representative and the Department of the Treasury.

 

The Chinese delegation led by Mr Liu will visit the US on 3 April with the aim of closing a deal by late April.

 

The talks have taken longer than some had expected, with officials at times making contradictory comments on their progress.

 

Previous US and China talks broke up without a deal on 15 February, with the US warning "very difficult issues" remained unresolved.

 

Even though by the end of the month Mr Trump said the two sides were "very very close" to signing a trade agreement, a deal has not yet been forthcoming.

 

He also delayed a 1 March deadline for raising tariffs last month citing the progress being made.

 

Three things the US and China will never agree on

US and China extend trade talks

US-China trade row: What has happened so far?

What's being discussed?

The US accuses China of stealing intellectual property from American firms, forcing them to transfer technology to China.

 

Washington wants Beijing to make changes to its economic policies, which it says unfairly favour domestic companies through subsidies and other support, and wants China to buy more US goods to rein in a lofty trade deficit.

 

China accuses the US of launching the largest trade war in economic history and is unlikely to embrace broader structural changes, which are seen by some as a way to contain its rise.

 

Important sticking points in negotiations include how to enforce a deal and the pace at which the US and China will roll back tariffs imposed over the past year, the Wall Street Journal said.

 

Chinese officials say President Xi Jinping does not want to participate in a summit with Mr Trump unless the main issues in the trade talks are agreed to avoid a situation where Mr Trump could walk away at the last minute, according to the Financial Times.

 

What's at stake?

Failure to achieve a deal would likely see the US more than double the 10% tariffs on $200bn of Chinese goods and impose fresh tariffs.

 

Mr Trump has in the past threatened to tax all of Chinese goods going into the US.

 

The US has already imposed tariffs on $250bn (£188.6bn) worth of Chinese goods, and China has retaliated with duties on $110bn of US products.

 

Mr Trump has also threatened further tariffs on an additional $267bn worth of Chinese products - which would see virtually all of Chinese imports into the US become subject to these tariffs.

 

The damaging trade war has cast a shadow over global trade and is contributing to a slowdown in the world economy.--BBC

 

 

 

 

 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 



South African tax workers to strike over pay dispute

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Workers in South Africa’s tax-collecting agency intend to strike next week after talks on wage increases failed but a further round might still avert the action, the agency said.

 

The strike would take place at a time the government wants to boost revenue collection, which has underperformed in recent years partly due to poor administration at the South African Revenue Service (SARS).

 

SARS said the National Education Health and Allied Workers Union and the Public Servants Association had given it a seven-day notice to go on strike from next Thursday.

 

The unions had initially demanded a 15 percent increase in wages, before revising down to 11.4 percent and later to 9 percent, SARS said. The tax agency was offering increases of 7 percent.

 

More talks were scheduled on Monday and Tuesday to try reach an agreement and avert the strike, SARS said in a statement.

 

“SARS is hopeful that an agreement will be reached, and a strike will be averted,” it said.

 

SARS spokesman Sandile Memela said contingency plans were in place to minimise the strike impact if no agreement was reached.

 

President Cyril Ramaphosa is banking on an efficient tax agency to help boost government coffers, as large tax hikes in recent years have failed to arrest income shortfalls.

 

In the past four fiscal years, South Africa has introduced measures to raise additional revenue amid sluggish economic growth, including hikes for personal income tax, value-added tax, dividend withholding tax and capital gains tax.

 

But despite these increases, tax revenue as a proportion of GDP has declined, posing further risk to an economy already hanging on by a thread with mounting debt and an energy crisis.

 

 

 

Richard Branson calls for new Brexit vote

Sir Richard Branson says, despite a delay to Brexit, the UK is "dangerously close to full scale disaster".

 

He also criticised Prime Minister Theresa May for "no longer acting in the national interest" and putting party before country.

 

In a blog post on the Virgin website, the businessman also claimed many who voted leave had changed their minds.

 

Sir Richard, who no longer lives in the UK, also called for the public to have "a final say" on leaving the EU.

 

Delay timetable

Last week Theresa May was granted an extra two weeks to come up with a Brexit solution after talks with EU leaders.

 

The UK's departure date had originally been set for 29 March.

 

If Mrs May can get her withdrawal deal through Parliament next week, that date will be pushed back to 22 May to give time to pass the necessary legislation.

 

If the prime minister can't get the deal through, the UK will have to propose a way forward by 12 April for EU leaders to consider.

 

'Major risk'

But British Virgin Islands-based Sir Richard said: "At this juncture, it seems implausible that another motion to vote on the withdrawal agreement would actually win majority Parliamentary support.

 

"And even with an extended Brexit deadline, that's a major risk to the UK, and to the Union itself.

 

"This is a moment of profound national crisis for the UK."

 

The billionaire added: "By limiting the MPs' choice yet again to one between her own deal and no deal at all, she is placing a dangerous bet."

 

'Assets moved'

Sir Richard has been campaigning for the past three years against leaving the EU, frequently saying the move would be damaging to business.

 

He is particularly concerned about the effects a hard Brexit could have on companies and the economy.

 

"Nearly three years after the 2016 referendum, that evidence tells us that few, if any, of the original assumptions about leaving the EU were correct," he said.

 

"Thousands of jobs in Britain have been lost already, with many more redundancies on the horizon as manufacturers react to the looming threat of tariffs and supply chain disruptions.

 

"More than a trillion pounds in assets are being moved to Dublin, Frankfurt, Paris, and other European cities as financial institutions begin to execute their contingency plans."--BBC

 

 

 

Nigeria's NNPC plans to revamp refineries to cut fuel imports

ABUJA (Reuters) - Nigeria’s state-oil firm NNPC said it plans to revamp its refineries to help Africa’s biggest crude oil producer to save billions of dollars on fuel imports and has hired Italy’s Maire Tecnimont to tackle the Port Harcourt plant.

 

Nigeria has 445,000 bpd of refining capacity across four separate facilities which operate well below capacity due to mismanagement and lack of investment, forcing the NNPC to import the bulk of the country’s gasoline.

 

Maire Tecnimont said separately it had won a contract from NNPC worth about $50 million to carry out checks and equipment inspections for Port Harcourt in the Niger Delta. The work would last for six months starting from end of this month, NNPC said.

 

The overhaul of the 210,000 barrels per day (bpd) Port Harcourt refinery would be the first since the last revamp was carried out 19 years ago, the NNPC said late on Thursday.

 

NNPC said Nigeria’s effort to ensure local sufficiency in refined petroleum products would be bolstered by the first phase of the rehabilitation of the Port Harcourt Refinery complex.

 

The corporation has been in talks with different consortiums to revamp its dilapidated refineries and has considered paying for the work via offtake of refined products rather than cash.

 

NNPC said it would use its own cash to pay for the work and then raise debt. The Port Harcourt overhaul would be followed by the Warri refinery, which is also in the Niger Delta, and the refinery at Kaduna in the north west of the country.

 

At the end of the first phase, the Port Harcourt refinery should reach 60 percent capacity utilisation, increasing to a minimum of 90 percent, NNPC said.

 

Italy’s Eni would act as adviser, NNPC said.

 

Oil minister Emmanuele Ibe Kachikwu has previously said the government would raise $1.2 billion to upgrade its refineries and would end reliance on imports by 2019.

 

Shortages of petroleum products have plagued the country for years. Nigeria’s gasoline consumption is roughly 40 million liters per day in a country of almost 200 million people.

 

Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, is building a 650,000 bpd refinery near Lagos, which would meet Nigeria’s current domestic demand and also export.

 

 

 

The Disney-Fox giant in five charts

Disney is now the official owner of Rupert Murdoch's former entertainment empire, 21st-First Century Fox.

 

The mammoth $71bn deal - completed on Wednesday - brings the likes of X-Men, The Simpsons and Fantastic Four characters to Disney's already impressive film catalogue which includes Star Wars and Cinderella.

 

Disney now also owns the Fox film and TV studios, National Geographic and Indian TV giant Star India.

 

Ultimately, its aim is to compete with rivals Netflix and Amazon.

 

Robert Iger, the chairman and chief executive of Walt Disney, said the deal's completion was "an extraordinary and historic moment" and critically one he pledged would "create significant long-term value for our company and our shareholders".

 

"Combining Disney's and 21st Century Fox's wealth of creative content and proven talent creates the pre-eminent global entertainment company, well-positioned to lead in an incredibly dynamic and transformative era," he added.

 

Here are five charts that help explain the scale of the combination.

 

1. What the two companies own

Disney has scooped up Fox's movie and television studios, regional sports network and international holdings, among other investments.

 

It has also gained the FX and National Geographic cable channels, and Fox's regional sports network in the US.

 

Fox is creating a smaller firm, focused on news and major live sports events in the US.

 

It will hold onto its flagship Fox News Channel, Fox Business Network, Fox Broadcasting Company, Fox Sports, Fox Television Stations Group, and sports cable networks FS1, FS2, Fox Deportes and Big Ten Network.

 

2. How the two firms make their money

Disney already owns a vast array of news, film and leisure companies. But the media landscape is changing as technology companies like Amazon and Netflix attract customers to new ways of viewing.

 

Disney is investing heavily in online streaming platforms, as a way to counter a downturn in its pay-TV business and threats from these new rivals.

 

But its purchase of Fox will enable it to enhance its offer.

 

3. Disney's power boosted

Disney is already a dominant force in the US. The Fox acquisition will make it even more competitive with online rivals such as Netflix, by giving it more shows and movies.--BBC

 

 

 

South Africa's rand flat after post Fed rally

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South Africa’s rand traded sideways early on Friday in subdued volumes following a bank holiday and a quiet session in Asia, pausing a Fed-inspired rally that had lifted the currency away from a one-month low.

 

At 0630 GMT the rand traded at 14.2150 per dollar, unchanged from its overnight close in New York.

 

Locally concerns over power utility Eskom continued to weigh on sentiment, with the cash-strapped state firm saying Friday it would implement a seventh straight day of nationwide electricity cuts.

 

Investment giant Goldman Sachs said on Thursday the severe power cuts by Eskom are expected to shave 0.3 percentage points off first-quarter GDP growth.

 

Having stuttered for most of the week the rand turned positive on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve said it had abandoned plans to raise interest rates this year, dragging the greenback to a six-week low.

 

Bonds were steady, with the yield on the benchmark paper due in 2026 at 8.655 percent.

 

 

 

Italy joins China's New Silk Road project

Italy has become the first developed economy to sign up to China's global investment programme which has raised concerns among Italy's Western allies.

 

A total of 29 deals amounting to €2.5bn ($2.8bn) were signed during Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Rome.

 

The project is seen as a new Silk Road which, just like the ancient trade route, aims to link China to Europe.

 

Italy's European Union allies and the United States have expressed concern at China's growing influence.

 

What is the Chinese project about?

The new Silk Road has another name - the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) - and it involves a wave of Chinese funding for major infrastructure projects around the world, in a bid to speed Chinese goods to markets further afield. Critics see it as also representing a bold bid for geo-political and strategic influence.

 

Tales from the new Silk Road

China v the US: Not just a trade war

Missionaries follow Beijing west

It has already funded trains, roads, and ports, with Chinese construction firms given lucrative contracts to connect ports and cities - funded by loans from Chinese banks.

 

The levels of debt owed by African and South Asian nations to China have raised concerns in the West and among citizens - but roads and railways have been built that would not exist otherwise:

 

In Uganda, Chinese millions built a 50km (30 mile) road to the international airport

In Tanzania, a small coastal town may become the continent's largest port

In Europe too, Chinese firms managed to buy 51% of the port authority in Piraeus port near Athens in 2016, after years of economic crisis in Greece

What projects were signed in Rome?

On behalf of Italy, Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio, leader of the populist Five Star Movement, signed the umbrella deal (memorandum of intent) making Italy formally part of the Economic Silk Road and The Initiative for a Maritime Silk Road for the 21st Century.

 

Ministers then signed deals over energy, finance, and agricultural produce, followed by the heads of big Italian gas and energy, and engineering firms - which will be offered entry into the Chinese market.

 

China's Communications and Construction Company will be given access to the port of Trieste to enable links to central and eastern Europe. The Chinese will also be involved in developing the port of Genoa.

 

What's in it for Italy?

Italy is the first member of the G7 group of developed world economies to take money offered by China.

 

It is one of the world's top 10 largest economies - yet Rome finds itself in a curious situation.

 

The collapse of the Genoa bridge in August killed dozens of people and made Italy's crumbling infrastructure a major political issue for the first time in decades.

 

And Italy's economy is far from booming.

 

The country slipped into recession at the end of 2018, and its national debt levels are among the highest in the eurozone. Italy's populist government came to power in June 2018 with high-spending plans but had to peg them back after a stand-off with the EU.

 

Mr Di Maio told a news conference: "Italy has arrived first on the Silk Road and therefore other European countries at this moment have taken a stance on our trade decisions.

 

"They have taken a critical view and they have the right to this opinion."

 

"We do not want to override our European partners. We firmly remain in the Euro-Atlantic alliance and we remain allies of the United States in Nato," he added.

 

There is, however, dissent within the Italian government. Mr Di Maio's coalition partner, the other Deputy Prime Minister, Matteo Salvini, who heads the right-wing League, was conspicuously absent from all official ceremonies.

 

Mr Salvini has warned that he does not want to see foreign businesses "colonising" Italy.

 

"Before allowing someone to invest in the ports of Trieste or Genoa, I would think about it not once but a hundred times," Mr Salvini warned.

 

What's in it for China?

 

Italy's move is "largely symbolic", according to Peter Frankopan, professor of Global History at Oxford University and a writer on The Silk Roads.

 

But even Rome admitting the BRI is worth exploring "has a value for Beijing", he said.

 

"It adds gloss to the existing scheme and also shows that China has an important global role."

 

"The seemingly innocuous move comes at a sensitive time for Europe and the European Union, where there is suddenly a great deal of trepidation not only about China, but about working out how Europe or the EU should adapt and react to a changing world," Prof Frankopan told the BBC.

 

"But there is more at stake here too," he added. "If investment does not come from China to build ports, refineries, railway lines and so on, then where will it come from?"

 

Explorer Marco Polo's travels along the Silk Road were immortalised in the "Book of Marvels"

The "made in Italy" label carries a reputation for quality worldwide, and is legally protected for products items processed "mainly" in Italy.

 

In recent years, Chinese factories based in Italy using Chinese labour have been challenging that mark of quality.

 

Better connections for cheap raw materials from China - and the return of finished products from Italy - could exaggerate that practice.

 

'Predatory' investment

The agreements signed in Rome come amid questions over whether Chinese firm Huawei should be permitted to build essential communications networks - after the United States expressed concern they could help Beijing spy on the West.

 

That was not part of the negotiations in Italy.

 

But a little over a week before the deal was due to be signed, the European Commission released a joint statement on "China's growing economic power and political influence" and the need to "review" relations.

 

As President Xi toured Rome, EU leaders in Brussels considered their approach for relations with China.

 

"Our aim is to focus on achieving a balanced relation, which ensures fair competition and equal market access," Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, said.

 

In March, US National Security Council spokesman Garrett Marquis pointed out that Italy was a major economy and did not need to "lend legitimacy to China's vanity infrastructure project".--BBC

 

 

 

Tanzania to conclude talks for delayed LNG project in September

DAR ES SALAAM (Reuters) - Tanzania says it plans to conclude talks in September with a group of foreign oil and gas companies led by Norway’s Equinor on developing a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in the East African country.

 

    Construction of an LNG export terminal near huge offshore natural gas discoveries in deepwater south of the country has been held up for years by regulatory delays.

 

    “The government has officially decided to begin talks in early April for construction of the LNG project,” Tanzania’s energy ministry said in a statement issued late on Friday.

 

    “We are keen to implement this key project for the economy and we plan  to ... conclude the talks in September this year,” the ministry said.

 

    The country’s central bank believes just starting work on the plant would add another 2 percentage points to annual economic growth of around 7 percent.

 

    The talks are aimed at negotiating a host government agreement, which is seen as a crucial step towards reaching a final investment decision for the long-delayed project.

 

    The decision to speed up the talks was reached following a meeting on Friday between the African country’s energy minister, Medard Kalemani, and Mette Ottøy, a senior vice president at Equinor, who is also the company’s country manager in Tanzania.

 

    Equinor, alongside Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobil and Ophir Energy, plan to build a $30 billion onshore LNG plant. 

 

    The firms plan to develop the project in partnership with the state-run Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC).

 

    Tanzania invited bids in April 2018 for consultancy services to help the government conclude negotiations for the host government agreement.

 

Tanzania has estimated recoverable reserves of over 57 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas.

 

    Tanzania President John Magufuli wants to speed up negotiations to set the commercial and fiscal framework for the LNG terminal development to boost revenues to finance other infrastructure projects. 

 

 

 

 

Is Apple about to expand its TV business?

Reece Witherspoon and Jennifer Aniston have reportedly been making a drama about morning TV for Apple

Could Apple be about to unveil a move into subscription TV?

 

Invitations to an event at its Cupertino campus on Monday simply saying "It's show time" have sparked speculation that the tech giant could be about to announce its next TV steps.

 

Apple needs to diversify and find new ways of bringing in cash as iPhone sales slow down, analysts say.

 

But in an unforgiving media landscape, Apple is expected to launch a challenge to the likes of Netflix.

 

What is Apple's background in TV?

Apple kicked off its TV ambitions in 1993 with Macintosh TV, which didn't get very far.

 

Its first major foray into the area was in 2007, when it first started selling its Apple TV console. This has had limited success compared with its iTunes music service, analysts say.

 

Jim Nail, principal analyst at Forrester, says: "Apple has had a TV device and content library for several years, following the model around music that revolutionised that industry.

 

"But people consume TV and music content very differently so just applying the music model didn't have the same impact."

 

Apple TV's hardware and technology platform is used to rent and sell content through iTunes.

 

The firm has released original titles through Apple Music, including Carpool Karaoke and Planet of the Apps, a reality show about app development.

 

Since 2007, Apple has also had some success in distributing movies and TV shows, according to Canalys analyst Ben Stanton.

 

However, he adds: "Its iTunes movies business is under huge threat from affordable streaming platforms like Netflix, Amazon Prime, and soon Disney.

 

"It was a success in its day, but Apple now needs to evolve this business or it will die."

 

Apple has built up relationships with major movie studios and TV networks, and these are "critical" for it to launch a subscription service, Mr Stanton says, because it needs to have more content than just its own original shows.

 

But some big players have said they are not on board. Netflix has already ruled out making its TV programmes and films available through Apple's subscription service, with chief executive Reed Hastings saying: "We prefer to let our customers watch our content on our service."

 

What is Apple expected to announce?

Apple has been on a $2bn spending spree, signing up stars such as Oprah Winfrey, for original content. Jennifer Aniston and Reece Witherspoon are also widely reported to have been signed up.

 

Directors and producers including M. Night Shyamalan and J.J. Abrams have been signed up, according to showbiz publication Variety, as well as Steven Spielberg's Amblin Television.

 

Apple also hired two well-respected Sony Pictures executives, Jamie Erlicht and Zack Van Amburg, to head its original content division.

 

As for the service itself, Jim Nail of Forrester says: "As usual, Apple is so closely guarding the details that it is hard to judge it. Will it upgrade the Apple TV device? Does it have partnerships with SmartTV manufacturers that will make an Apple TV app more broadly available?

 

"Exactly what content is included in the subscription? Live TV? On-demand episodes of current network programs? Sports? And the price matters a lot. As they say in the TV business, stay tuned..."

 

It may also allow customers to buy subscriptions to CBS, Viacom and Lions Gate, and is also in discussions with Game of Thrones maker HBO to become part of its service, according to Reuters.

 

What have its rivals been doing?

Netflix "is the biggest fish in this particular pond", says Ben Stanton, and Netflix and Apple "have been at loggerheads recently".

 

The streaming giant is shifting its subscription model away from the Apple App store, which means it will be much harder for Apple to make money from Netflix customers on its iOS operating system.

 

In terms of content, Amazon Prime has a number of irons in the fire, including an upcoming series based on JRR Tolkien's Lord of the Rings mythology, Radio Times reports.

 

Amazon Prime includes Channels, where consumers in the US can sign up to third parties such as HBO and Showtime.

 

HBO is due to premiere season eight of its smash hit series Game of Thrones in April.

 

The BBC and ITV also announced recently that they are in talks over launching a service called Britbox in the UK.

 

Why does Apple need to get into TV?

Smartphone sales are slowing for many major manufacturers, including Apple, says Ben Stanton, but most other companies have big businesses to fall back on.

 

"Huawei has its infrastructure business. Samsung has a very profitable components division, not to mention its TV business. But Apple is extremely dependent on iPhone," he says.

 

Apple chief executive Tim Cook has said he wants to focus the company on selling services rather than just hardware in a major shift in strategy.

 

Apple is "sacrificing some of the profitability in its iPhone business" to try to push up the number of people using iOS, so it can sell services to them and to its existing user base, Mr Stanton says.

 

Tom Harrington of Enders Analysis adds: "iPhone sales are slowing so it makes sense for Apple to further diversify its business.

 

"Video viewing is growing, the Amazon Channels model has been successful for Amazon and the third party services alike, and with a massive base of iPhone and iPad users there is quite a lot of potential."--BBC

 

 

 

Tunisia's benchmark interest rate held at 7.75 pct

TUNIS (Reuters) - Tunisia’s central bank has kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 7.75 percent, it said on Friday.

 

The bank last month raised the rate to 7.75 percent from 6.75 percent in its efforts to combat high inflation. It was the third such increase in the past 12 months.

 

Tunisia’s annual inflation rate rose to 7.3 percent in February from 7.1 percent in January. It had reached 7.8 percent last June, the highest since 1990.

 

The bank added that Tunisia’s foreign exchange reserves now stand at 14.585 billion dinar ($4.9 billion) from 13.974 billion dinar at the same time last year.

 

($1 = 2.9954 Tunisian dinars)

 

 

 

Nigeria's central bank sees 3 pct GDP growth in 2019

LAGOS (Reuters) - Nigeria’s central bank expects the economy to pick up in 2019, forecasting a gross domestic product growth of 3 percent, up from 1.9 percent recorded last year, its governor Godwin Emefiele said on Thursday.

 

Emefiele said the bank would maintain its tight monetary stance in 2019, and sees inflation at 11.31 percent in February and rising to 12 percent this year before moderating.

 

The governor, who is set top step down in June, told an economic conference in Lagos that the economy would see more growth as the recovery is become self sustaining.

 

Economic growth has been recovering since the third quarter of 2016, when the recession bottomed out. Higher oil prices helped Nigeria exit that contraction. In 2018, the economy grew at its fastest pace since the recession.

 

Emefiele expects volatility in the crude oil market to put pressure on the currency but the central bank would maintain its stance on exchange rate over the next year.

 

He said more than $6 billion had flowed into the local bond market since last month’s presidential election as foreign investors piled into debt to lock in yields as high as 14 percent.

 

Bond investors had been worried elections would turn violent, not about who won. President Muhammadu Buhari has favoured a strong and stable currency, which bondholders hope will continue.

 

Buhari won a second term in charge of Africa’s biggest economy in February, defeating his pro-business rival Atiku Abubakar who had touted privatizations and float the currency as some of the ways to grow the economy.

 

 

 

Global markets fall amid slowdown fears

Markets in the UK and US have tumbled with analysts attributing the drop to growing fears of a global slowdown.

 

The FTSE 100 saw its worst day of trading this year, closing 2% lower. In the US, the three main indexes ended between 1.9% and 2.5% lower.

 

The falls came after figures showed eurozone manufacturing growing at its weakest pace in five years in March.

 

Combined with the Federal Reserve's cautious tone on interest rates earlier this week, investors took fright.

 

On Wednesday, the US central bank said that it did not expect to raise interest rates for the rest of the year amid slower economic growth.

 

The Dow Jones Index fell 1.8%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.9% and the Nasdaq lost 2.5%, marking the worst performance for all three indexes in over three months.

 

 

Diane Swonk, chief economist for Grant Thornton, said news that manufacturing in Germany - seen as the powerhouse of Europe - contracted last month, coupled with the continuing uncertainty over Brexit and the decision to put US interest rate rises on hold had combined to make investors nervous.

 

"There's a flurry of information which has raised risks to the downside. All that is finally hitting the market with a reality check," she said.

 

She added financial markets were "not as nuanced as people would like", and tended to overreact to both good and bad news.

 

Is the US heading for a recession?

Uber 'picks New York Stock Exchange' for stock listing

Meanwhile, an unusual move in the US bond markets also made investors fearful. The bonds, known as Treasuries in the US, are issued as a form of borrowing by governments to fund spending.

 

For the first time in over 10 years, the rate of return (yield) on three-month US bonds rose above 10-year yields, something which is seen as an indicator that a recession could be coming.

 

"Typically investors expect to be compensated more to wait longer to get their money back. So a ten-year US Treasury bond is likely to pay more than a three-month US Treasury bond.

 

"The problem right now is that investors are willing to be paid less to wait longer - an indication that they don't have much confidence in the long term outlook for the US economy," says BBC New York business correspondent Michelle Fleury.

 

A central bank study in the US found that the bond markets had successfully foreshadowed all five US recessions since 1955.

 

But Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, said she did not think a US recession was imminent.

 

"Globally there are more concerns. I don't think this is a cause for panic," she added.--BBC

 

 

 

Kenya shilling strengthens, helped by inflows into government bonds

NAIROBI (Reuters) - The Kenyan shilling strengthened against the dollar on Thursday due to inflows from offshore investors buying government bonds, traders said.

 

At 0746 GMT, commercial banks quoted the shilling at 100.65/85 per dollar, compared with 100.85/101.05 at Wednesday’s close.

 

 

 

Suspended Steinhoff CFO helps authorities with fraud investigation

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - The suspended former chief financial officer of Steinhoff is helping authorities with investigations into $7 billion-plus accounting fraud at the South African retailer, he said on Thursday.

 

Ben la Grange is one of eight individuals named in an investigation of what an independent report by auditor PwC said was a complex scheme in which intercompany deals worth 6.4 billion euros ($7.3 billion) were wrongly recorded as external income to prop up profits and hide costs in underperforming subsidiaries.

 

“I am cooperating with all government agencies,” said La Grange, who was suspended last August but remains on the Steinhoff payroll as a consultant.

 

Former CEO Markus Jooste, who could not reached for comment through his lawyer, is among the eight executives named in the 15,000-word report conducted by PwC over the past 15 months. Jooste has previously denied any wrongdoing.

 

Steinhoff is under investigation by South Africa police, the Financial Sector Conduct Authority capital markets watchdog and exchange operator JSE.

 

The state prosecutor in Oldenburg, Germany, has also been investigating the company for suspected accounting irregularities since 2015.

 

Steinhoff first disclosed the hole in its accounts in December 2017, shocking investors who had backed its reinvention from a small South African business to a multinational retailer at the vanguard of the European discount furniture retail industry.

 

($1 = 0.8803 euros)

 

 

 

Eskom power cuts to hit South Africa GDP -Goldman Sachs

LONDON (Reuters) - Severe planned power cuts at South African state-run utility Eskom are expected to shave 0.3 percentage points off first-quarter GDP growth, Goldman Sachs said on Thursday.

 

The continent’s most industrialised economy has suffered from some of the worst power cuts in several years, presenting President Cyril Ramaphosa with a major challenge two months before an election at which he will try to reverse a decline in voter support for the African National Congress (ANC).

 

If the current intensity of the planned cuts, known as load-shedding, were to persist in 2019, it could subtract up to 0.9 percentage points from annual growth, Goldman analysts said in a note to clients.

 

In February South Africa’s national treasury estimated GDP growth of 1.7 percent in 2019.

 

Eskom supplies more than 90 percent of the power in South Africa but has suffered repeated faults at its coal-fired power stations, along with low water levels at hydroelectric plants and diesel shortages.

 

“Restoring a reliable supply of energy and ensuring that we have a sustainable model for affordable energy into the future is now one of our most urgent priorities,” Ramaphosa told a gathering at the 25th commemoration of Human Rights Day in Johannesburg on Thursday.

 

“We are already putting in place a number of measures and making sure that the energy loss that we’ve had from the cyclone in Mozambique should be restored,” he continued, adding that the government is also addressing maintenance challenges at power stations.

 

Eskom continued to implement rolling blackouts on Thursday with 4,000 megawatts cut from the grid on a rotational basis.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 


 

INVESTORS DIARY 2019

 


Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

 


 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 


Zimbabwe 

Independence Day

Zimbabwe

18 Apr 2019 

 


 

Good Friday

 

19 Apr 2019

 


 

Easter Saturday

 

20 Apr 2019

 


 

Easter Sunday

 

21 Apr 2019

 


 

Easter Monday

 

22 Apr 2019

 


 

Workers Day

 

01 May  2019

 


 

Africa Day

 

25 May 2019

 


 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 


 

 


DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

 


 

 


(c) 2019 Web: <http:// www.bulls.co.zw >  www.bulls.co.zw Email:  <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> info at bulls.co.zw Tel: +263 4 2927658 Cell: +263 77 344 1674

 


 

 

 

 

 

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

 

Telephone:      <tel:%2B263%204%202927658> +263 4 2927658

Cellphone:      <tel:%2B263%2077%20344%201674> +263 77 344 1674

Alt. Email:       <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> info at bulls.co.zw  

Website:         <http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bulls.co.zw&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNH8LYgdY55h-XKseuM8Kpr-JKdfhQ> www.bulls.co.zw 

Blog:            <http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bulls.co.zw%2Fblog&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNFoIy6F9IXAiYnSoPSgWDYsr8Sqtw> www.bulls.co.zw/blog

Twitter:         @bullsbears2010

LinkedIn:       Bulls n Bears Zimbabwe

Facebook:      <http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FBullsBearsZimbabwe&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNGhb_A5rp4biV1dGHbgiAhUxQqBXA> www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe

Skype:         Bulls.Bears 



 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20190325/88408258/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image001.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 3653 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20190325/88408258/attachment-0006.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image002.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 42387 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20190325/88408258/attachment-0007.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image003.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 29396 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20190325/88408258/attachment-0008.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image004.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 29388 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20190325/88408258/attachment-0009.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image005.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 29420 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20190325/88408258/attachment-0010.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image006.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 4846 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20190325/88408258/attachment-0011.jpg>