Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 14 November 2019

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Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 14 November 2019

 


 

 


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*  Royal Mail wins bid to halt Christmas postal strikes

*  Why a Chinese firm really bought British Steel

*  'Berlin rocks,' says Elon Musk as he chooses European factory

*  Toy sales slump as shops chase Christmas cheer

*  Trump speaks to 'his people' on Wall Street

*  Xinjiang cotton sparks concern over 'forced labour' claims

*  Is surge pricing a fair way to manage demand?

*  Project Nightingale: Google probed over US patient data deal

*  Hong Kong shares slide as violent protests continue

*  US losses from Trump’s China trade war will never be recovered, shipping data tells us

*  WeWork’s Quarterly Loss Doubled to $1.3 Billion as IPO Faltered

*  Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Price, Analysis and  chart

*  The environmental cost of cryptocurrency mines

*  Russia to cut share of U.S. dollar in National Wealth Fund, mulls other currencies

*  Russians Break Shopping Records on Chinese Singles’ Day

 

 


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Royal Mail wins bid to halt Christmas postal strikes

Royal Mail has won its legal battle to prevent a postal strike after the High Court backed its application for an injunction.

 

The decision is a setback for union plans to stage strikes in the run-up to the general election and Christmas.

 

Last month, 100,000 Royal Mail staff were balloted and voted to take action over job security and terms.

 

But Royal Mail argued that the ballot had "potential irregularities" and was null and void.

 

The Communications Workers Union (CWU) said its members were "extremely angry and bitterly disappointed".

 

It also accused Royal Mail of a "cowardly and vicious attack on its own workforce" and said it intended to appeal.

 

Royal Mail workers vote for strike action

Royal Mail fails to halt record £50m Ofcom fine

Shane O'Riordain, director of corporate affairs at Royal Mail, said it had not taken the decision to go to the High Court lightly.

 

"We sought to reach resolution outside the courts. We asked CWU to confirm it would refrain from taking industrial action, based on clear evidence of planned and orchestrated breaches by CWU officials of their legal obligations."

 

Members of the CWU voted by 97% in favour of a nationwide strike, saying the company had failed to adhere to an employment deal agreed last year.

 

Royal Mail denied this and said it had evidence of CWU members coming under pressure to vote "yes" in the ballot.

 

This included, the company said, union members "being encouraged to open their ballot papers on site, mark them as 'yes', with their colleagues present and filming or photographing them doing so, before posting their ballots together at their workplace postboxes".

 

Royal Mail said this amounted to a "de facto workplace ballot", contrary to rules on industrial action, to maximise the turnout and the "yes" vote.

 

The CWU thought the ballot result couldn't have been clearer - a 97% vote in favour of strike action on a turnout of 76%.

 

Barring the result of any appeal, the CWU will have to go back to the drawing board and re-ballot its 110,000 members.

 

It's not a quick process and there's a strict code of practice to follow which takes at least a month.

 

Realistically, it seems there's little chance of strike action before the new year, meaning postal workers have lost their moment of maximum leverage.

 

A Christmas strike plus a threat to postal votes during the election would have been very damaging for the Royal Mail. It'll now be breathing a temporary sigh of relief. But the dispute, which covers a wide range of issues, is far from over.

 

Royal Mail's procedures state that employees cannot open their mail at delivery offices without the prior authorisation of their manager.

 

But CWU lawyers argued there was no evidence of interference with the ballot and that "legitimate partisan campaigning" by the union in favour of a "yes" vote did not violate the rules.

 

In the High Court, Mr Justice Swift said in his judgement: "This was an interference that was accurately described as improper. Strike ballots should be postal ballots. Each voter should receive a voting paper at home.

 

"What CWU did was a form of subversion of the ballot process. It was an interference with voting."

 

If the action had gone ahead, it would have been Royal Mail's first national postal strike in a decade. In the 2017-18 financial year, Royal Mail delivered about 14.4 billion letters and 1.2 billion parcels.--BBC

 

 

 


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Why a Chinese firm really bought British Steel

In the warm afterglow of Monday's announcement that Chinese steel maker Jingye had agreed to buy British Steel, workers and unions were grateful and optimistic that the new owners would pour more than £1bn into the struggling company, securing 4,000 jobs at Scunthorpe and 20,000 in the supply chain.

 

This little known company was making big promises to refurbish the blast furnaces, expand production, potentially expand the workforce and return the site to profit.

 

Everyone - including Business Secretary Andrea Leadsom - was smiling.

 

But in some quarters, heads were being scratched as to why Jingye thought it could succeed where many others had failed or decided not to try.

 

It's true that Jingye's promised £1.2bn investment dwarfs the estimated £20m the previous owners - private investment firm Greybull Capital - were prepared to put in.

 

But the government's previous preferred bidder Ataer Holdings - an offshoot of the Turkish military pension fund - also said it would invest heavily.

 

Government sources told me at the time that the Turkish bid was "hands down" the best bid.

 

That means better than Jingye, who the previous Business Secretary Greg Clark met three times in the UK, and once in China.

 

However, after months of having full access to the plant and the books, Ataer's bid stalled.

 

Which begs the question - what is it about loss-making Scunthorpe that the Chinese like and others don't?

 

'Made in the UK'

There are several possible answers.

 

First, the official version. The businesses are genuinely complementary. Scunthorpe is a specialist in rail tracks and other "long products" like reinforcing bars used in construction. Jingye doesn't make these. British Steel gives it new products and new markets.

 

Second, Chinese steel is not welcome in all parts of the world.

 

Indeed, it was the flood of steel coming from Chinese overproduction that saw the UK steel industry have a near death moment in 2016 before strong EU anti-dumping measures that imposed big tariffs on Chinese steel imports offered the industry a degree of protection.

 

Some industry watchers are suggesting that Scunthorpe, and British Steel's plant in Hayange in France would allow Jingye to import raw steel from China, finish it into higher value products and stick a "Made in UK" or "Made in France" badge on it.

 

Peace of mind for big customers like Network Rail in the UK or French ones like SNCF. It would also make exports to the US quite a bit easier than they are now.

 

Third, and connected to the second, there is some valuable intellectual property and expertise that Jingye is acquiring along with the sites themselves.

 

Sources close to Jingye told the BBC that there was still some work to do to clinch the deal and so did not want to comment at this stage. That's fair enough and a useful reminder this deal is not yet in the bag.

 

There are three sets of hoops to jump through.

 

First, competiton tests. That's not thought to be a major problem as there are other big players in the market such as Thyssen, Arcelor Mittal, and Tata.

 

Second, union approval. The positive and deeply relieved noises coming out of GMB and Community on Monday make it likely that will be forthcoming.

 

Third, the approval of the French government. That may be trickier. While the UK government does not consider steel-making a critical industry enabling it to block a takeover, France has always adopted a more cautious, more protectionist stance.

 

SNCF is a major customer of the Hayange plant and company sources acknowledge that this will be the toughest hurdle to clear.

 

It's not just unclear as to why this deal happened. There still remains some element of doubt, perhaps small, as to whether it will happen at all.--BBC

 

 

 

 

'Berlin rocks,' says Elon Musk as he chooses European factory

Tesla's chief executive, Elon Musk, has said Berlin will be the site of its first major European factory as the carmaker's expansion plans power ahead.

 

"Berlin rocks," Mr Musk said, adding Tesla would build an engineering and design centre in the German capital.

 

Tesla previously said it aimed to start production in Europe in 2021.

 

The moves come as the firm, which has also invested heavily in a Chinese factory, faces intensifying competition in the electric vehicle industry.

 

Mr Musk made the announcement at an awards ceremony in Germany on Tuesday. The company already has an assembly site in the Netherlands, but the plans for Germany are on a far larger scale.

 

"Everyone knows that German engineering is outstanding and that's part of the reason we are locating our Gigafactory Europe in Germany," he said.

 

Mr Musk also cited risks surrounding the UK's exit from the EU for his decision, according to AutoExpress.

 

"Brexit [uncertainty] made it too risky to put a Gigafactory in the UK," he told the trade magazine.

 

Mr Musk said the facility would be located near the new Berlin airport and later gave more details on what the factory would produce on Twitter.

 

The focus on Germany comes amid rising appetite for electric cars in Europe.

 

Over the coming years, the biggest electric car production plants will be in Germany, France, Spain and Italy, industry analysis shows.

 

Some 16 large-scale lithium-ion battery cell plants are confirmed or due to begin operations in Europe by 2023.

 

Elon Musk has long been pondering where to put his European facility known as a "gigafactory".

 

Mr Musk's announcement on Tuesday night came ahead of the Prime Minister giving a televised election speech from an electric car factory. It has long been an aim of government policy to attract such a gigafactory to the UK, but international investors are yet to bite.

 

The disruption of a possible no-deal Brexit has weighed down industry investment. But even the current deal proposed by the government would involve checks for customs and the origin of parts, that are difficult for the car industry and electric car industry in particular.

 

While Mr Musk in 2014 expressed a long term desire to open a UK factory, that wasn't expected this soon. However, industry sources had been more hopeful that Mr Musk would choose the UK for his research and development facility in the UK. That too will be situated in Germany.

 

Tesla's European plan comes as the carmaker also moves ahead with a $2bn (£1.6bn) factory in Shanghai.

 

The firm is looking to ramp up production in China, the world's biggest car market, where sales have been hurt by tariffs triggered by the US-China trade war.

 

Tesla gets the go-ahead to build cars in China

Tesla starts work on huge new China plant

Musk expects 'robotaxis' to start in US next year

The Shanghai facility will produce Model 3 and Model Y cars. The automaker reportedly showed off its new China-made vehicles to local media this week.

 

 

Still, Tesla has struggled with years of losses, fuelling investor doubts and casting a shadow over its shares in recent years.

 

The firm has yet to turn an annual profit, although it recorded positive results in the final two quarters of 2018.

 

Last year, Tesla took aggressive steps to slash expenses, cutting thousands of jobs and reining in other spending.--BBC

 

 

 

Toy sales slump as shops chase Christmas cheer

Caution among UK shoppers has led to a tough year so far for toy retailers, as parents search for deals and cut back on impulse buys.

 

UK toy sales were down by 8% in the year so far, compared with the same period last year, leaving retailers dreaming of a bumper Christmas.

 

But economic uncertainty and Brexit planning could lead to shortages of the most popular toys.

 

Others may be sold off cheaper if sales fail to match retailers' expectations.

 

About 30% of annual spending on toys comes at Christmas, with £86 spent on the typical child up to the age of 11, according to analysts NPD.

 

The industry is banking on festive sales turning around a poor year so far. The 8% drop in UK sales was worse than a 3% drop in international toy sales, said Frederique Tutt, global industry analyst for NPD. Sales last year were also flat, suggesting more than a seasonal downturn.

 

She said this was driven by a lack of consumer confidence and High Street woes in general, rather than issues specific to the toy industry.

 

Parents and grandparents have made fewer impulse buys outside of birthdays and Christmas, partly as they are less likely to be in stores.

 

"You do not get the same Willy Wonka-type excitement on the internet as children do in a toy shop," said Gary Grant, who chairs the committee which selects the 2019 DreamToys list of "must-have" toys.

 

Blockbuster film releases had been earmarked as a saviour for the industry this year, owing to the sale of spin-off toy merchandise which account for 10% of the market. The two brands which have previously broken records for film-licensed products - Star Wars and Frozen - will see new films released before Christmas.

 

But Mr Grant said the financial reality for many families was that buying a toy after watching a film would be a substitute for another toy purchase, not necessarily an additional purchase.

 

UK toy market facts

In store sales accounted for 55% of the market, with 26% bought online and delivered, and 16% click and collect

Nearly two-thirds (61%) of Christmas toy spending were presents chosen by the giver, rather than put on children's wishlists

Toy spending at Christmas stands at £86 on average for each child up to the age of 11

Each receives an average of eight toys each Christmas

Source: NPD

 

Licensed products in general have accounted for 23% of toy sales so far this year, but Ms Tutt said this sector was no longer dominated by blockbuster film releases.

 

Some of the hotly tipped toys this year have links to YouTube stars and are marketed on social media. The fragmentation of entertainment channels has made it difficult for the big film brands to repeat previous success - although some, such as Harry Potter - have had some joy.

 

"Children move on to the next thing very quickly, so there is a relatively short window of opportunity to make sales," she said.

 

The Brexit effect

The extra planning required by the potential for the UK leaving the EU on 31 October led many manufacturers and retailers making early decisions on orders for the coming Christmas.

 

That, according to Mr Grant, could mean a shortage of certain toys before Christmas which suddenly become popular. A cautious approach by manufacturers may add to this concern.

 

However, there was also the chance that retailers could have over-ordered certain toys, leading to the potential for big discounts on those at some point before Christmas.

 

That, he said, would impact the cash taken by retailers, in addition to the extra management time and cost during the year that was caused by Brexit planning.

 

He predicted that a pick-up in the UK economy and consumer confidence would bring shoppers back to the High Street to spend money, but it was difficult to know when such an improvement would come.--BBC

 

 

 

Trump speaks to 'his people' on Wall Street

By the reckoning of most economists, Donald Trump is engaged in a risky game, as he courts trade fights around the world, undermines the US central bank and runs up the national debt.

 

None of that seems to matter too much to Wall Street.

 

The US president got a warm welcome in New York on Tuesday, where he spoke before a crowd of 1,350 hosted by the Economic Club of New York.

 

Assorted whistles filled the room when his name was announced. Big applause followed his claim to have delivered and exceeded his campaign promises.

 

"Thank you," he said. "I was waiting for that. I almost didn't get it."

 

It soon became clear that he needn't have worried.

 

"I think he felt comfortable with the crowd. It's his people," said one member of the audience, who works in New York property.

 

Tuesday's speech was, in the words of that man, "classic Trump" - an hour-long monologue that covered familiar topics, including the rise in the US stock market and US trade policy.

 

Mr Trump mixed prepared text touting his administration's accomplishments - primarily tax cuts and environmental deregulation - with his own asides, often digs at Democrats.

 

Audience members - who were primarily white and male - afterward deemed the talk "articulate" and "very inspirational".

 

"I truly believe he's working for the American people, not himself," one man said.

 

Those listening in hope of gleaning some intelligence on US-China trade talks were bound to be disappointed. A deal is close, the president said, as he has before.

 

But those there for the selfie, cheesecake and general spectacle probably came away satisfied.

 

"Kings and queens and prime ministers and presidents and dictators - I meet 'em all," Mr Trump said, drawing a gasp of disbelieving laughter.

 

The audience listened with equanimity as Mr Trump spoke about reviving the manufacturing sector and reversing America's losing record before the World Trade Organization (WTO).

 

In fact, while the US manufacturing sector has added jobs, their numbers remain lower than they were before the financial crisis. And the US has a long-standing record of winning the vast majority of cases it brings before the WTO.

 

Mr Trump also took the opportunity to criticise the Federal Reserve, which recently cut interest rates. Mr Trump said the bank should go further, pointing to even lower rates overseas.

 

Those jibes got big applause.

 

Mr Trump also seemed confident about the upcoming election. After all, Democrats such as Elizabeth Warren want tougher climate policies and higher taxes on billionaires.

 

"The truth is, you have no choice," he told the crowd of dark suits. "Because the people we're running against are crazy."

 

He added of his election prospects, as he prepared to exit the stage: "I think we're going to do very well. We're going to do it easily."--BBC

 

 

 

Xinjiang cotton sparks concern over 'forced labour' claims

Global retailers are facing scrutiny over cotton supplies sourced from Xinjiang, a Chinese region plagued by allegations of human rights abuses.

 

China is one of the world's top cotton producers and most of its crop is grown in Xinjiang.

 

Rights groups say Xinjiang's Uighur minority are being persecuted and recruited for forced labour.

 

Many brands are thought to indirectly source cotton products from the Xinjiang region in China's far west.

 

Japanese retailers Muji and Uniqlo attracted attention recently after a report highlighted the brands used the Xinjiang-origin of their cotton as a selling point in advertisements.

 

H&M, Esprit and Adidas are among the firms said to be at the end of supply chains involving cotton products from Xinjiang, according to a Wall Street Journal investigation.

 

"You can't be sure that you don't have coerced labour in your supply chain if you do cotton business in China," said Nathan Ruser, researcher at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

 

"Xinjiang labour and what is almost certainly coerced labour is very deeply entrenched into the supply chain that exists in Xinjiang."

 

What is happening in Xinjiang?

UN experts and human rights groups say China is holding more than a million Uighurs and other ethnic minorities in vast detention camps.

 

Rights groups also say people in camps are made to learn Mandarin Chinese, swear loyalty to President Xi Jinping, and criticise or renounce their faith.

 

China's hidden camps

A profile of Xinjiang

China's Muslim 'crackdown' explained

China says those people are attending "vocational training centres" which are giving them jobs and helping them integrate into Chinese society, in the name of preventing terrorism.

 

What is produced in Xinjiang?

The Xinjiang region is a key hub of Chinese cotton production.

 

China produces about 22% of global cotton supplies, according to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

 

Last year, 84% of Chinese cotton came from Xinjiang, the report said.

 

That has raised concerns over whether forced labour has been used in the production of cotton from the region.

 

Nury Turkel, chairman of the Uighur Human Rights Project in Washington, said the Uighurs were being "detained and tormented" and "swept into a vast system of forced labor" in Xinjiang.

 

In testimony to US congress, he said it was becoming "increasingly hard to ignore the fact" that the goods manufactured in the region have "a high likelihood" of being produced with forced labour.

 

Which brands use Xinjiang cotton?

Amy Lehr, director of CSIS Human Rights Initiative, said in many cases Western companies aren't buying directly from factories in Xinjiang.

 

"Rather, the products may go through several stages of transformation after leaving Xinjiang before they are sent to large Western brands," she said.

 

Some, like Muji, are very open about sourcing material from Xinjiang.

 

The Japanese retail chain launched a new Xinjiang Cotton collection earlier this year.

 

One of its advertisements boasts "soft and breathable" men's shirts made from organic cotton "delicately and wholly handpicked in Xinjiang".

 

Another Japanese fashion brand Uniqlo had also touted the Xinjiang region in an advertisement advertisment for men's shirts.

 

In the fine print of the shirt description, the advert said the shirts were made from Xinjiang cotton, "famous for its superb quality".

 

That reference was later removed from the advertisement "given the complexity of this issue", according to a spokesperson for Uniqlo.

 

"Uniqlo does not have any production partners located in the Xinjiang region. Moreover, Uniqlo production partners must commit to our strict company code of conduct.

 

"To the best of our knowledge, this means our cotton comes only from ethical sources," the spokesperson told the BBC.

 

According to the Wall Street Journal report which focused on workers at a mill operated by Huafu Fashion in Aksu, Xinjiang, yarn made in the region was present in the supply chains of several international retailers including H&M, Esprit and Adidas.

 

Many of the companies looked into the allegations, including those without clear links to the Huafu mill.

 

In a statement to the BBC, Adidas said: "While we do not have a contractual relationship with Huafu Fashion Co., or any direct leverage with this business entity or its subsidiary, we are currently investigating these claims."

 

"We advised our material suppliers to place no orders with Huafu until we have completed those investigations," the Adidas spokesperson said.

 

Esprit, which also does not source cotton directly from Xinjiang, said it had made several inquiries earlier this year.

 

"We concluded that a very small amount of cotton from a Huafu factory in Xinjiang was used in a limited number of Esprit garments," the firm said in a statement.

 

The company has instructed all suppliers to not source Huafu yarn from Aksu, the statement said.

 

H&M said it does not have "a direct or indirect business relationship" with any garment manufacturer in the Xinjiang region.

 

"We have an indirect business relationship with Huafu's spinning unit in Shanyu, which is not located in the Xinjiang region, and according to our data, the vast majority of the yarn used for our garment manufacturing comes from this spinning unit," a spokesperson for H&M said.

 

"Since we have an indirect business relationship with the yarn supplier Huafu, we also asked for access to their spinning facilities in Aksu. Our investigations showed no evidence of forced labor."--BBC

 

 

 

Is surge pricing a fair way to manage demand?

In the 1950s, the New York subway faced a problem that will be familiar to users of public transport all over the world.

 

At peak times, it was overcrowded; at other times, the trains were empty.

 

The mayor commissioned a report, which concluded the problem was subway riders paid a flat fare. No matter where you boarded, how far you travelled, or when you made your trip, it would cost you 10 cents.

 

Might there be some more sophisticated approach? Perhaps so. The report's foreword singled out a proposal from one of the 17 authors, economist William Vickrey.

 

"The abandonment of the flat-rate fare in favour of a fare structure which takes into account the length and location of the ride and the hour of the day is obviously a sensible step provided the mechanical problems involved can be solved," he said.

 

Vickrey's basic idea was simple: when the trains were busy, charge more. When they were quiet, charge less.

 

The peaks in demand would become less spiky. The subway would be more comfortable and reliable, could carry more people without having to build new lines, and could raise more money, all at once. A great idea.

 

But how to charge all these different prices? Not with an army of ticket clerks and inspectors; that would take too much time and money, so an automated solution must be found.

 

What was needed was a coin-operated turnstile that could charge different rates for different journeys at different times. But this was not easy to deliver in 1952.

 

50 Things That Made the Modern Economy highlights the inventions, ideas and innovations that helped create the economic world.

 

It is broadcast on the BBC World Service. You can find more information about the programme's sources and listen to all the episodes online or subscribe to the programme podcast.

 

To give a sense of the scale of the challenge for William Vickrey, consider a dilemma faced by the Coca-Cola company. A Coke had cost a nickel - five cents - for decades.

 

Coca-Cola would have liked to increase the price by a cent or two but it couldn't.

 

Why? Its 400,000 vending machines took only nickels and redesigning them to take two different denominations of coin would be a logistical nightmare.

 

In 1953, Coca-Cola tried instead to persuade President Eisenhower - in all seriousness - to introduce a 7.5 cent coin. That attempt failed - and Coca-Cola's price remained five cents until 1959.

 

But Vickrey wasn't daunted and described a contraption that would solve the problem.

 

"Passengers put a quarter in the entrance turnstile, get a metal check with notches indicating the zone of origin to be inserted in an exit turnstile, which would, through electro-mechanical relays, deliver an appropriate number of nickels according to the origin and time of day," he said.

 

It sounds clever, so you may be wondering why you haven't heard of it.

 

One clue comes from the title of the speech in which Vickrey gave that description, My Innovative Failures In Economics. He began that speech by saying: "You are looking at an economist who has repeatedly failed in achieving his objective."

 

The variable-price electromechanical Vickrey Turnstile was never built.

 

So why are you reading an article about a non-existent invention? It's because the idea itself was so important, even if it was initially too complicated to be put into practice.

 

Vickrey's fellow economists often said he was just too far ahead of his time. He eventually won a Nobel Memorial Prize for his work, in 1996, just three days before his death.

 

Vickrey was proposing what is often called "peak load pricing" by economists, and "dynamic pricing" by management consultants.

 

In its simplest form, it's an old idea. "Early bird specials" - offering a cheap deal to restaurant diners at quiet times - date back to the 1920s. It's an easy sell to customers and requires no electromechanical wizardry.

 

More things that made the modern economy:

How a razor revolutionised the way we pay for stuff

How the humble S-bend made modern toilets possible

The horrific consequences of rubber's toxic past

How do people learn to cook a poisonous plant safely?

But the idea has appeal in far more complex settings.

 

Whether you're running a subway system or an airline, trying to fill a concert hall or balance an electricity grid, it can be very costly to add extra capacity just to meet a short-term peak in demand - and it is wasteful to carry unused capacity around at other times. Varying prices make sense.

 

US Airlines was an early pioneer of the idea, after deregulation meant the company had to compete fiercely in the late 1970s. By 1984, the Wall Street Journal reported Delta Air Lines alone employed 147 staff to incessantly tweak prices.

 

Thomas Cook: Why did prices rise for new flights?

Why your bananas could soon cost more in the afternoon

Timing is everything: Working out when to buy online

Peak-load pricing no longer requires an army of pricing specialists. A company such as Uber can effortlessly match supply and demand with an algorithm. Uber's "surge pricing" promises to end that painful three-hour wait for a taxi on New Year's Eve; there's always a price for a car right now.

 

But consumer acceptance may be more of a problem. "You're almost at their mercy because you don't want to wait longer for a cab," one disgruntled customer told the Houston Chronicle after being charged $247.50 (£203) for a 21km (13-mile) ride in Houston, Texas. Although, it's worth pointing out he chose to pay so much because he couldn't bear to wait for a cheaper journey.

 

Consumers can feel exploited by some forms of dynamic pricing - especially when, as with Uber, prices can double or halve in a matter of minutes.

 

A 1986 study by behavioural scientists Daniel Kahneman, Jack Knetsch and Richard Thaler indicated people found price surges infuriating.

 

Having once despaired over the lack of a 7.5 cent coin, Coca-Cola unsuccessfully attempted another technological solution in 1999, when it flirted with a vending machine that on sweltering days would raise the price of an ice-cold Coke. It was so unpopular, the company had to backtrack.

 

But peak-load pricing is likely to play an increasing role in the economy of the future.

 

Consider a smart electricity grid fed by intermittent power sources such as wind and solar power. When a cloud covers the Sun, your laptop might decide to stop charging, your freezer might switch itself off for a minute, or your electric car might even start pumping energy into the grid rather than sucking it out.

 

But all that would require those devices to respond to second-by-second price changes.

 

Drivers who want to use part of Interstate 66 in Arlington, Virginia, during rush hour are charged a variable price according to traffic levels

William Vickrey was also fascinated by the possibilities offered by congestion pricing on roads, designed - just as his turnstile was - to smooth out demand and ensure limited capacity was used well.

 

That's now becoming a reality. Drivers in Arlington, Virginia, near Washington DC, can switch into a free-flowing lane on Interstate 66 during rush hour if they're willing to pay the variable charge, which can be as much as $40 (£33) for 15km when traffic is particularly bad.

 

Vickrey had tried to show this idea could work, in the mid-1960s: he built a prototype, using a simple computer and a radio-transmitter to tally every time he used his own driveway.

 

But as with the turnstile, sometimes good ideas just need to wait for the technology to catch up.--BBC

 

 

 

Project Nightingale: Google probed over US patient data deal

Google is to be investigated over how it is accessing US patient data via a major health firm, the Wall Street Journal reports.

 

An office of the US Department of Health and Human Services will examine the details of a deal dubbed "Project Nightingale".

 

Google said patient data was "secure".

 

Separately, in the UK, the Financial Times (FT) reports that popular health websites are sharing sensitive data with firms including Google.

 

The Project Nightingale deal with Ascension - a firm that runs 2,600 hospitals in the US - attracted criticism from some when the Wall Street Journal revealed that Google could access patient data without them being notified.

 

Among those who expressed concern was Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski.

 

"Privacy protections, particularly when it comes to personal info like your health, is a high priority of mine," she said via Twitter.

 

However, in a blog, Google argued that the deal "adheres to industry-wide regulations" and that access to patient data by its employees was controlled.

 

The tech giant said patient data would not be combined with customer data from other parts of its business.

 

It added that it was "happy to co-operate" with the federal inquiry.

 

In its own blog, Ascension said it looked forward to developing artificial intelligence tools for medical purposes with Google's help.

 

Websites' data shared

News of Project Nightingale coincided with an FT investigation that revealed how popular health websites in the UK frequently shared personal data with companies including Google, Amazon and Facebook.

 

Websites such as WebMD and Bupa used cookies - code added to web browsers - that allowed other companies to track users' activity on the web.

 

The kind of data shared from health websites to others included medical symptoms, diagnoses, and menstrual and fertility information, as well as the names of drugs.

 

Google told the FT it had strict policies preventing advertisers from using sensitive data to target ads.--BBC

 

 

 

Hong Kong shares slide as violent protests continue

Hong Kong stocks have fallen again as another day of anti-government protests cast a shadow over the city and rattled investors.

 

The Hang Seng index lost 2.2%, outpacing falls across Asia, continuing a downward path since Monday.

 

It comes amid more clashes between protesters and police, and the partial closure of the transport network.

 

Unrest has gripped the Asian financial hub for nearly five months, knocking the economy and business confidence.

 

This week has seen a marked escalation in violence with intense street battles, violent clashes at universities and flashmob lunchtime protests in the financial heart of Hong Kong.

 

"The situation in Hong Kong has taken a decidedly dark turn this week with the violence and economic disruption seemingly gathering pace," Oanda analyst Jeff Halley said.

 

He said worries about intervention by Beijing have "ratcheted materially higher" keeping Asian markets "cautious at best".

 

The protests have dealt a blow to the local economy and Hong Kong recently tipped into recession. Tourism and retail businesses have been among those hardest hit as travellers stay away.

 

"Social unrest, coupled with uncertainty from the US-China trade tensions, have dampened overall business sentiment in Hong Kong," IHS Markit analyst Maojun Ye said.

 

At the Chinese University of Hong Kong police fired tear gas and rubber bullets as protesters started fires and threw petrol bombs.

 

Fresh lunchtime protests in the financial district saw crowds gather to chant slogans. Some black-clad protesters also vandalised a branch of the mainland Bank of Communications.

 

Hong Kong is part of China, but as a former British colony it has some autonomy and people have more rights.

 

The protests started in June against plans to allow extradition to the mainland - which many feared would erode the city's freedoms.

 

The bill was withdrawn in September but demonstrations continued and now call for full democracy and an inquiry into police behaviour.

 

Clashes between police and activists have become increasingly violent and in October the city banned all face masks.--BBC

 

 

 

US losses from Trump’s China trade war will never be recovered, shipping data tells us

President Trump announced a month ago that his administration had clinched a trade deal with China. Well, actually, the first in a series of deals, which the White House now refers to as “phase one.”

 

Since then, countless declarations of “winning,” but agreeing to a deal only “if the terms are right,” have added to the year and half long conflicting cacophony of rhetoric about the content of any trade agreement with China.

 

Bottom line? The constant bluster has blurred the reality of what a deal would even accomplish, if anything at all. The only way to shovel away the pile of broken promises and contradictory comments is to analyze the flow of maritime trade.

 

Why? With 90% of all items in a house transported over water, it is the purest form of showing supply and demand. The flow of trade is agnostic. It moves regardless of who is “winning” or “losing.”

 

People underestimating the hit tariffs will have on the US, UBS economist says

​The impact of this trade war and the opportunities lost by American businesses both large and small can not only be tracked by the public earnings reports, but through American exports.

 

And a deal, no matter what is agreed on, would never make up for the losses sustained during this trade war, according to calculations based on the decrease in volumes of containers, cargo and tankers that traveled into U.S. ports.

 

Dropping export volume

For a perspective on the losses, look no further than the Port of Los Angeles, the largest port in the country. U.S. exports to China from the bustling harbor decreased for 12 consecutive months. It suffered a 19.1% drop in export volume when comparing October 2019 with the same month in 2018.

 

China’s retaliatory tariffs hit 96.6% of the purchases of U.S. exports that traveled through the L.A. port complex, with a price tag of $19.9 billion.

 

Add on the additional retaliatory tariffs from the other countries the U.S. is sparring with on trade, and that brings the total of impacted export cargo to $20.2 billion, or 28.8% of all export value through the L.A. port system. Considering 95% of the world’s consumers are outside of the U.S., the tariffs imposed on American goods have priced them out of the global marketplace.

 

China allegedly tells tech firms to prepare for long-term trade tensions

The receipt of losses is long and varied. The trade war expands beyond agriculture, which is $11 billion in the hole (and counting). The promises of President Trump of the $40 billion to $50 billion in agriculture buys by the Chinese in phase one is just an overblown headline. If you crunch the numbers, the two years before the trade war, the agriculture business community made $49.807 billion. China would have to buy $50 billion over the course of two years to make it a “win.” But is it really? If it was a win shouldn’t the lost revenue be added to that?

 

Agriculture is not the only sector trying to fill the leaking China bucket.

 

Data have shown China is expanding its LNG relationships with Qatar and Australia while essentially shutting off the United States.

 

Before the trade war, U.S. LNG volumes comprised 4.3% of Chinese imports and China accounted for 16% trailing twelve-month basis (TTM) of U.S. LNG exports.

 

In August 2019, China’s LNG volumes had slipped precipitously to 1% (TTM). Crude has also suffered a similar fate, accounting for 20% (TTM) of U.S. crude exports in Jan. 2018 to only 1.2% (TTM) in August 2019.

 

President Xi continues to press forward with the country’s Belt Road Initiative and China 2025 inking trade deals.

 

The flow of trade proves how China is moving away from the United States and turning to Europe.

 

 

 

Retail and technology have announced losses in the billions. According to the National Retail Federation, consumers and businesses have paid an additional $38 billion from the start of the trade war in February 2018 through September 2019. The Consumer Technology Association says the September tariffs added about $15.5 billion in extra tariffs.

 

So as the bluster blows and promises of winning mount, the actual flow of trade paints a very different picture.--cnbc.com

 

 

 

WeWork’s Quarterly Loss Doubled to $1.3 Billion as IPO Faltered

WeWork reported a net loss of $1.25 billion in the third quarter, eclipsing its sales and more than doubling its loss from the same period last year. The quarter coincided with a spending spree in anticipation of an initial public offering that veered off the rails, a combination of events that nearly brought the company down.

 

Revenue in the quarter was $934 million, up from $482 million a year earlier but failing to keep pace with the steeper losses, according to a financial document that was presented to bondholders Wednesday and reviewed by Bloomberg. A spokeswoman for WeWork parent company We Co. declined to comment on the report.

 

 

In an email to staff Wednesday that was seen by Bloomberg, WeWork’s co-chief executive officers, Artie Minson and Sebastian Gunningham, described the quarter as a “difficult chapter” for the company and said they’re developing a plan to “provide a clear path to profitability.” That will include sales of business assets and job cuts, they wrote. Dismissals have already begun and are expected to number in the thousands.

 

WeWork had always prized growth above profit, but it took the approach to another level on the eve of its expected IPO. The deal was set to raise at least $9 billion for the business in a combination of equity and debt. So WeWork spent the summer filling up office space with about 115,000 new desks in the quarter, a record for the company. That brought total desks to 719,000. Partly thanks to that push, the occupancy rate in its offices declined to 79%, from 84% a year before.

 

 

It wasn’t until the final weeks of the quarter, which ended in September, that WeWork realized how doomed its fundraising plans were. Investors recoiled at the office rental company’s deep losses and flimsy corporate governance. Adam Neumann, the longtime CEO, stepped down in late September under pressure from investors, and the company pulled its IPO prospectus on the final day of the month. WeWork had $2 billion in cash that day, according to the document.

 

The money evaporated fast. WeWork was on track to run out of funds by November and needed an emergency financing from its largest investor, SoftBank Group Corp., to stay alive. SoftBank took majority ownership in that deal and has installed an executive, Marcelo Claure, to help turn around the business. The company is seeking a new CEO, and T-Mobile US Inc.’s John Legere is among the candidates.

 

SoftBank has said it will buy stock from employees and other shareholders at a discounted rate, but that deal has yet to happen, according to the financial document. When it does, SoftBank will own about 78% of the company and less than half of voting stock. Employees are sitting on a lot of stock, much of which is now underwater. WeWork doled out $220 million in stock-based compensation in the first three quarters, nearly five times what it spent in the same period last year.

 

Based on the company’s performance in September, WeWork estimated it would generate $4.2 billion in revenue over the next 12 months, compared with $1.8 billion in 2018. But the business may look very different soon, as the company prepares to dismiss employees and refocus on the core business of renting office space.--bloomberg

 

 

 

CANADIAN DOLLAR OUTLOOK: USD/CAD PRICE, ANALYSIS AND CHART

The recent push higher in USD/CAD is likely to slow, or reverse, in the short-term as the pair near longer-term chart resistance. USD/CAD currently trades around 1.3265 and is closing in on the 200-day moving average situated around 10 ticks higher. The rally off the October 29 low at 1.3042 remains in place but the longer-term ma suggests that further bullish price action may struggle unless the pair close above 1.3273. Two other indicators also suggest a slow down or reversal of recent price action with the CCI indicator currently showing USD/CAD as overbought while Tuesday’s long-legged doji also points to market indecision.

 

Five Doji Candlestick Patterns

 

For the pair to continue their upward move, a break and close above the 200-dma is required which would then open the way to the early-mid October highs situated between 1.3340 and 1.3350. IG client sentiment also shows that retail traders are net-short USD/CAD, a bullish contrarian indicator. The US dollar as a currency remains strong despite the ongoing US-China trade spat. US President Donald Trump’s said yesterday that while the two sides are close to a ‘significant phase-one deal’, he will only accept a deal ‘if it’s good for the United States’.

 

This afternoon’s US CPI reading may prompt a move in the US dollar, while traders should also carefully monitor US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress at 16:00 GMT.

 

DailyFX Economic Calendar

 

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Price Running into Renewed Resistance

IG Client Sentiment shows that traders are 59% net-shortUSD/CAD, a bullish contrarian bias.

 

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.--dailyf.com

 

 

 

The environmental cost of cryptocurrency mines

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Monero—the names of digital-based cryptocurrencies are being heard more and more frequently. But despite having no physical representation, could these new methods of exchange actually be negatively impacting our planet? It's a question being asked by researchers at The University of New Mexico, who are investigating the environmental impacts of mining cryptocurrencies.

 

 

Cryptocurrency is an internet-based form of exchange that exists solely in the digital world. Its allure comes from using a decentralized peer-to-peer network of exchange, produced and recorded by the entire cryptocurrency community. Independent "miners" compete to solve complex computing algorithms that then provides secure cryptographic validation of an exchange. Miners are rewarded in units of the currency. Digital public ledgers are kept for "blocks" of these transactions, which are combined to create what is called the blockchain. According to proponents, cryptocurrencies do not need a third party, or traditional bank, or centralized government control to provide secure validation for transactions. In addition, cryptocurrencies are typically designed to limit production after a point, meaning the total amount in circulation eventually hits a cap. These caps and ledgers are maintained through the systems of users .

 

But the mechanisms that make these currencies so appealing are also using exorbitant amounts of energy.

 

In a new paper titled "Cryptodamages: Monetary value estimates of the air pollution and human health impacts of cryptocurrency mining," published in the journal Energy Research & Social Science, University of New Mexico researchers Andrew Goodkind (asst. professor, economics), Benjamin Jones (asst. professor, economics) and Robert Berrens (professor, economics) estimate the environmental impact of these cryptocurrency mining techniques. Using existing data that assessed energy use on cryptocurrency, and a battery of economic valuation techniques, the three were able to put a monetary figure on the mining practices.

 

"Our expertise is in estimating the monetary damages, due to health and environmental impacts, of different economics activities and sectors," Berrens explained. "For example, it is common for economists to study the impacts from energy use connected to production and consumption patterns in agriculture, or with automobile production and use. In a world confronting climate change, economists can help us understand the impacts connected to different activities and technologies."

 

 

The independent production, or "mining," practices of cryptocurrencies are done using energy-consuming specialized computer hardware and can take place in any geographic location. Large-scale operations, called mining camps, are now congregating around the fastest internet connections and cheapest energy sources—regardless of whether the energy is green or not.

 

"With each cryptocurrency, the rising electricity requirements to produce a single coin can lead to an almost inevitable cliff of negative net social benefit," the paper states.

 

The UNM researchers argue that although mining practices create financial value, the electricity consumption is generating "cryptodamages"—a term coined to describe the human health and climate impacts of the digital exchange.

 

"We looked at climate change from greenhouse gas emissions of electricity production and also the impacts local air pollutants have when they are carried downwind and across local communities," Goodkind said.

 

Health and climate damages from producing one coin in the US as a percentage of the value of mining one coin from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2018. Notes: BTC = Bitcoin, ETH = Ethereum, LTC = Litecoin, XMR = Monero. Credit: University of New Mexico

The researchers estimate that in 2018, every $1 of Bitcoin value created was responsible for $.49 in health and climate damages in the United States.

 

Their data shows that at one point during 2018, the cost in damages that it took to create Bitcoin matched the value of the exchange itself. Those damages arise from increased pollutants generated from the burning of fossil fuels used to produce energy, such as carbon dioxide, fine particulate matter, nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide. Exposure to some of these pollutants has been linked to increased risk of premature death.

 

"By using large amounts of electricity generated from burning fossil fuels," Jones said. "Cryptocurrency mining is associated with worse air quality and increased CO2 emissions, which impacts communities and families all across the country, including here in New Mexico."

 

In addition to the human health impacts from increased pollutants, the trio looked at the climate change implications and how the current system of mining encourages high energy use.

 

"An important issue is the production process employed in the blockchain for securing new blocks of encrypted transactions," Berrens explained. "Along with supply rules for new units of a currency, some production processes, like the predominate Proof-of Work (POW) scheme used in Bitcoin, require ever increasing computing power and energy use in the winner-take-all competition to solve complex algorithms, and secure new blocks in the chain."

 

Although relatively limited in overall use currently, there are cryptocurrencies with alternative production schemes which require significantly less energy use. The researchers hope by publicizing the health and climate impacts of such schemes, they will encourage alternative methods of mining.

 

"The ability to locate cryptomining almost anywhere (i.e. following the cheapest, under-regulated electricity source) …creates significant challenges to implementing regulation," the paper says.

 

Goodkind says the specialized machines used for mining also have to kept cool, so they won't overheat while computing such complex algorithms. That additional energy-use was not part of this study, which means even more energy is being consumed than is currently being accounted for when looking solely at the usage of running the machines.

 

Moving forward, the challenging public policy question is: "How can you make the people who are creating the damage pay for the cost, so that it is considered in the decision in how to mine cryptocurrencies," Goodkind concluded.--techexplore.com

 

 

 

Russia to cut share of U.S. dollar in National Wealth Fund, mulls other currencies

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia will reduce the share of the U.S. dollar in its National Wealth Fund and is considering investing in other foreign currencies including the Chinese yuan, Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev said on Wednesday.

 

Kolychev confirmed a Reuters report from earlier this month that Russia was planning to diversify its foreign currency holdings in 2020.

 

Kolychev said the move was in part meant to shield Russian reserves from external risks. He did not give an exact figure for what the U.S. dollar’s share would be trimmed to in the National Wealth Fund.

 

The U.S. unit made up about 36% of the National Wealth Fund, or $124.5 billion, as of end-October, according to Reuters calculations based on finance ministry data.

 

“Geopolitical risks are one of the key factors in determining the structure of the National Wealth Fund,” he told reporters on the sidelines of a conference in central Moscow.

 

Russia had stepped up what it calls a de-dollarization process to reduce its dependence on the U.S. currency when Moscow’s relations with the West deteriorated over Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its role in the Ukrainian crisis.

 

“I can say with certainty that the U.S. dollar share will be smaller,” Kolychev said. “Different currencies are being considered... including the yuan.”

 

The structure of Russia’s international reserves has already changed and the planned changes to the National Wealth Fund will bring its composition closer to that of the central bank’s foreign currency reserves, Kolychev said.

 

“We are just synchronizing more with the central bank.”

 

The euro EUR= accounted for 30.3% of the central bank's reserves as of March 31. The U.S. dollar's share was 23.6%, the Chinese yuan accounted for 14.2% CNY=, and the pound for 6.6% GBP=. The Japanese yen JPY=, the Canadian dollar CAD= and the Australian dollar AUD= altogether accounted for 7.1%.

 

 

 

Russians Break Shopping Records on Chinese Singles’ Day

Russian shoppers have embraced this year’s record-breaking Singles’ Day online sale — the biggest single shopping day of the year — as never before.

 

In total, Russians spent 17.2 billion rubles ($267 million) on AliExpress, the Russian platform of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, over the 24 hour shopping bonanza — a record high, and the first time the company has released such data about sales in Russia, local media reported.

 

Singles Day, a Chinese celebration which takes place on Nov. 11, has ballooned in recent years, overtaking Black Friday as the world’s biggest shopping event. Globally, Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba continued its 11-year record-setting streak, booking sales in excess of $38 billion.

 

AliExpress Russia said more than five million Russian shoppers made a total of 30 million purchases through the platform on Singles’ Day, with the average shopper splurging around 3,440 rubles ($53). 

 

BUSINESS

 

The Russian arm is a joint venture between China’s Alibaba Group, Russia’s Mail.Ru, telecoms provider Megafon and the Russian Direct Investment Fund.

 

The record sales come on the same day new data from market researchers Neilsen showed that consumer confidence in Russia jumped to a four-year high in the third quarter as low inflation buoyed sentiment among shoppers.

 

Around one in six of the purchases made by Russians on the AliExpress platform on Singles’ Day were with companies and sellers based in Russia, while the vast majority were with foreign sellers.

 

The most popular products sold around the world were the iPhone XR, iLife robot vacuum cleaner and the 50-inch Skyworth TV, Alibaba said.

 

Separate data from Yandex Kassa, the online payment service of Russian tech giant Yandex, said sales using its software through all Chinese online retailers jumped 17-fold on Singles’ Day.--themoscowtimes.com

 

 

 

 


 

 


 

INVESTORS DIARY 2019

 


Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

 


 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 


Companies under Cautionary

 

 

 


 

 

 

 


Bindura Nickel Corporation

 

 

 


Padenga Holdings

 

 

 


Delta Corporation

 

 

 


Meikles Limited

 

 

 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 


 

 


DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

 


 

 


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