Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 28 January 2020

Tue Jan 28 10:37:41 CAT 2020

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Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 28 January 2020

 <http://www.nedbank.co.zw/> 

ü  Egypt signs two Mediterranean exploration deals with Exxon Mobil- ministry

ü  S.Africa's rand firms slightly but sentiment stays weak on coronavirus

ü  South Africa's Sasol plans secondary listing on A2X

ü  Fastjet flags going concern doubt again as restructuring plan in jeopardy

ü  IMF aid to Congo Republic on hold over Glencore, Trafigura impasse

ü  Kenyan central bank cuts key lending rate to 8.25%

ü  S.Africa's Woolworths hit by weak Australia, December results

ü  Airbus reaches deal to settle corruption probe

ü  Insurer Aviva apologises to mistaken Michaels

ü  Sainsbury's pledges £1bn to cut emissions to zero by 2040

ü  Asian markets plunge further as coronavirus claims more lives

ü  NZ Economic Outlook: Through the looking glass – ANZ

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Egypt signs two Mediterranean exploration deals with Exxon Mobil- ministry

CAIRO (Reuters) - Egypt has signed two deals with Exxon Mobil for oil and gas exploration in the Mediterranean, the petroleum ministry said on Tuesday.

The exploration deals include a minimum investment of $332 million, the ministry said in a statement.

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S.Africa's rand firms slightly but sentiment stays weak on coronavirus

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South Africa’s rand firmed slightly against the dollar early on Tuesday, after hitting a more than six-week low in the previous session, although concerns over the fast-spreading coronavirus and weak domestic economicoutlook weighed on sentiment.

At 0640 GMT, the rand traded at 14.5800 per dollar, 0.17% firmer than its previous close.

The currency slipped to 14.6570 per dollar on Monday, its weakest since Dec. 12, with the selloff largely driven by investors dumping emerging market assets.

Nedbank analysts wrote in a note the risk-off scenario was “likely to continue until the coronavirus is brought under control.”

Global markets have tumbled recently on fears the virus could do further damage to China’s already-weakened economy, an engine of global growth. [MKTS/GLOB]

The rand is the most fragile among its emerging market peers as investors are also cautious about South Africa’s poor economic outlook and possible downgrade to junk by Moody’s.

Finance Minister Tito Mboweni gives his budget speech on Feb. 26, with Moody’s — the last of the top three agencies to still rate the country at an investment level — set to review its credit rating a week later.

In fixed income, the yield on the benchmark government bond was down a single basis point to 8.135%.

South Africa's Sasol plans secondary listing on A2X

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South African petrochemicals group Sasol is planning a secondary listing on the A2X, a new independent licensed stock exchange, next week, it said on Monday.

The company said Sasol ordinary shares will be tradeable on the new South African platform with effect from Feb. 3. It will retain its primary listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and its listing on the New York Stock Exchange, it said.

“Sasol’s decision to list on A2X is part of the company’s commitment to continually find ways to increase value for shareholders, as well as provide them with a variety of trading venue options,” said Sasol Chief Financial Officer Paul Victor.

Fastjet flags going concern doubt again as restructuring plan in jeopardy

(Reuters) - Fastjet Plc on Monday warned again that it would not be able to continue as a going concern if the South African low-cost carrier could not carry out its restructuring proposal by the end of March due to a shortage of funds.

The company, which lost its turnaround specialist Chief Executive Officer Nico Bezuidenhout last year, is struggling to get funding for a restructuring of its business as talks with an investor consortium led by its biggest shareholder Solenta Aviation to sell its Zimbabwean operations are not yet finished.

Back in November, Fastjet said it was in discussions to sell the operations for $8 million, a deal which could help the South African low-cost carrier stay alive until 2021.

Meanwhile, the proposal to restructure is aimed at becoming a capital light business operating as a franchise house that would earn revenue through the Fastjet brand and provide airline management solutions, while also continuing to hold its investment in the FedAir business.

The consortium is finalising its due diligence on Fastjet Zimbabwe and securing the required regulatory approvals, the company said.

Fastjet projects that it will have sufficient resources to meet its operational needs until the end of March, with cash reserves of only $3 million at Jan. 23.

Fastjet, which has operations in Zimbabwe and South Africa, said it was trading in line with management’s expectations through the year-end including the peak holiday season, with revenue expected to be $42 million.

Loss after tax for the year ended Dec. 31 was expected to shrink to $7 million to $8 million from a loss of $65 million a year earlier.

IMF aid to Congo Republic on hold over Glencore, Trafigura impasse

LONDON/JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Talks to salvage a tentative $1.7 billion debt restructuring between Congo Republic and energy traders Glencore and Trafigura are stuck, sources said, jeopardising an International Monetary Fund bailout for the debt-hobbled nation.

The IMF signed off in July on a $449 million, three-year lending programme to help the central African nation’s ailing economy - but only $45 million has been disbursed with other funds subject to semi-annual reviews.

Those hinge on restructuring the oil-backed loans to the Swiss traders as money the state saves on reduced debt servicing would fill a gap in an overall $2 billion national rescue plan.

More IMF disbursements could help unlock another nearly $900 million in financing from the World Bank, African Development Bank and France who are all backing the rescue programme.

But the IMF said it has held off on submitting a 2019 year-end review to its executive board as it waits for Congo to finalise a deal with the traders.

An IMF spokesman said Congolese authorities had indicated to the institution that they expect restructuring negotiations with the oil traders to be done this quarter.

However, two banking and commodities industry sources familiar with the talks told Reuters an agreement in principle reached over the summer had fallen apart with both sides entrenched in their positions despite ongoing sporadic contact.

Congo wants a partial capital writedown and is meanwhile refusing to allocate cargoes to repay debt, the sources said, while the companies are considering legal action.

A Congo government spokesman did not respond to requests for comment, while spokespeople for Trafigura and Glencore declined to comment.

An IMF spokesman said: “We have not received any formal communication from the authorities regarding the specifics of an agreement in principle, either in the past or more recently.”

Financial advisor Lazard, which is working on behalf of Congo, would not comment on the negotiations.

Another advisor, Parnasse, was not immediately reachable.

IMPROVING OUTPUT

Congo’s cash-strapped energy industry has been boosted by major recent finds from Italy’s ENI and France’s Total, raising output to about 350,000 barrels per day.

The former French colony, ruled by President Denis Sassou Nguesso for all but five years since 1979, is expected to be the third largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa by next year.

Court action was being discussed among the traders, the sources said, as Glencore has not been allocated an oil cargo since 2018 while Trafigura has only been receiving sporadic ones.

Congo restructured nearly $1.6 billion in loans from China without taking a haircut, according to a deal inked last year, prior to the IMF agreement. That deal plus an increase in oil prices had strengthened the Swiss companies’ resolve, according to one source familiar with their position.

“They need a restructuring and apparently the Chinese deal was done without haircut so why would we accept a haircut at $65 a barrel?” the source said.

Led by banks, Glencore initially lent about $850 million to Congo in 2015 to be repaid with crude over five years.

Meanwhile, Congo is in default on Trafigura’s loan as the original timeline has already lapsed. The trader lent around $1 billion in 2014 with a maturity in 2019.

Unlike Glencore, Trafigura is fully responsible for the debt, although it has insured it with re-insurers.

The total remaining debt to both traders and banks is nearly $1.7 billion, according to sources with knowledge of the negotiations. Congo has not confirmed the figure.

“One possibility is that Congo has re-assessed the necessity of the (rescue) programme, given higher oil prices and production, as well as the need to spend more freely ahead of elections next year,” another banking source familiar with the matter said.

Congo is still a way off top African producers like Nigeria, where output is around 2 million bpd. But a sustained rebound could help re-launch hospitals and water and power lines in one of the world’s poorest countries.

Kenyan central bank cuts key lending rate to 8.25%

NAIROBI (Reuters) - Kenya’s central bank monetary policy committee cut its benchmark lending rate to 8.25% on Monday from 8.50%, saying the economy was operating below potential and there was room for a more accommodative monetary policy.

The bank cut the benchmark rate in November by 50 basis points, the first cut after holding it for seven straight meetings.

“The Committee ... noted that there was room for further accommodative monetary policy to support economic activity. The MPC therefore decided to lower the CBR to 8.25 percent,” the bank said in a statement.

In a Reuters poll of eight economic analysts last week, all expected the rate to be held steady.

Governor Patrick Njoroge told Reuters in November that the scrapping of an interest rate cap, in place since 2016, had removed one of the concerns the central bank had about cutting the lending rate.

S.Africa's Woolworths hit by weak Australia, December results

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Half-year earnings at South Africa’s Woolworths could drop by as much as 20%, the retailer warned on Monday, sending its shares down more than 4%.

The company, which sells food, clothing and homeware, said an accounting change had compounded the decline, but also pointed to another drop in sales at its struggling Australian businesses and slow trade during the critical December period.

In a trading statement, Woolworths said that while group sales were expected to have risen by 3.8% in the 26 weeks to Dec. 29, headline earnings per share - the main profit measure in South Africa - were likely to be between 15% and 20% lower.

It did not specify the exact reason for the decline. However it said the half-year forecast included new accounting rules applied by the retailer for the first time, excluding which HEPS was likely to have dropped by only between 7.5% and 12.5%.

The retailer tends to be more shielded from a tough economic environment at home than its peers because it targets higher-income customers. Its $2 billion foray into Australia led by outgoing CEO Ian Moir has been its biggest drag on performance.

Moir purchased David Jones in 2014, and since then the chain has struggled amid a tough economy, competition from online rivals and a disruptive refurbishment at its flagship store in Sydney.

In contrast with the year before, the critical trading periods of Christmas and Boxing Day - with the latter especially busy in Australia - fell in the first, rather than the second half, of Woolworth’s financial year.

When adjusted for this shift, David Jones sales fell by 0.5%. Some analysts believe Moir’s purchase of David Jones was not well executed. He is due to step down in February, and be replaced by Levi Strauss executive Roy Bagattini - a change welcomed by some investors keen for a fresh mind at the top after nine years under Moir.

Food sales held up in South Africa - expected to grow 7.8% when adjusted for the trading week changes - but Woolworths’ fashion, home and beauty division, which it has also been trying to turn around, is seen growing by just 0.9%.

The company said it had been hurt in its home market by a series of factors in December.

“The constrained economic environment, exacerbated by the disruption to trade caused by power outages and unseasonal weather in parts of the country, contributed to slower December trade,” its statement said.

Woolworths shares had recovered some ground by 0721 GMT, but were still 3.7% lower.

($1 = 14.3325 rand)

Airbus reaches deal to settle corruption probe

Airbus says it has agreed a settlement with French, British and US authorities following lengthy investigations into allegations of bribery and corruption.

In a statement, the European planemaker said the deal was subject to approval by courts in the three countries.

The allegations have centred on the use of middlemen in plane sales.

Details have not been revealed, but reports suggest that Airbus - based in Toulouse in south-west France - could pay more than €3bn (£2.5bn) in fines.

"Airbus confirms that it has reached agreement in principle with the French Parquet National Financier, the UK Serious Fraud Office and the US authorities," the company said in a statement.

The UK's Serious Fraud Office (SFO), and later its French counterpart, opened investigations into Airbus after the firm reported itself in 2016.

The SFO opened its investigation in August of that year into allegations of "fraud, bribery and corruption" in the civil aviation business of Airbus.

The firm, which employs more than 130,000 people globally - including about 10,000 in the UK - asked the regulator to look at documentation about its use of overseas agents.

Export credits

In the run-up to the SFO's investigation, UK, French and German authorities froze export credit applications by Airbus, but reversed that decision in 2018.

Export credits are used by many governments to support exporters, often by giving their backing to bank loans offered to overseas buyers of UK products.

The investigations followed concern that Airbus had failed to disclose the use of middlemen in such deals.

The US also requested information from the UK and French investigations, amid suspicions that arms export rules could have been violated.

Insurer Aviva apologises to mistaken Michaels

Several thousand Aviva customers have received an apology after the insurer mistakenly called them all Michael.

The company, which has millions of customers, blamed a "temporary technical error" for the incorrect emails.

It stressed that the wrong name in the email greeting was the only mistake and no personal details had been compromised.

Michael has recently slipped in popularity among baby names.

Do we judge people by what they are called?

'Nigel Night' celebrates 'dying breed'

One accidental Michael, a life insurance customer whose real name is Andrew, said he was worried that the mistake may have signalled other errors.

"The irony is I hadn't noticed the original 'Michael' email, it was this follow up that caught my eye," he said.

"Getting a first name wrong is one thing, but what if it was my data - my address or policy information - being sent to someone else instead?"

Aviva said customers, of any name, should not be concerned as there were no wider privacy issues.

"We sent out some emails to existing customers, which, as a result of a temporary technical error in our mailing template, mistakenly referred to customers as 'Michael'," a spokeswoman for the company said.

"We've apologised to these customers and reassured them that the only error in the email was the use of the incorrect name as a greeting. There was no issue with personal data; the remainder of the email and its content was correct."

Michael was one of the 10 most popular boys' baby names in England and Wales, from the 1930s to the 1980s.

However, its popularity has waned since, falling well behind the likes of Oliver, George, and Harry.

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show 869 babies born in England and Wales in 2018 were named Michael. That left the forename 74th in the rankings of boys' names, down six on the previous year, but falling 22 places compared with 2008.

It remains a popular second forename in Scotland, ranked 10th for boys in 2019, but was ranked 72nd as a first name.

Sainsbury's pledges £1bn to cut emissions to zero by 2040

Sainsbury's has promised to reduce its net carbon emissions to zero over the next 20 years.

The supermarket chain, which is the second largest in the UK, has said it will spend £1bn to reach the target.

It pledged to reduce emissions from areas like refrigeration and transport.

But, while the 2040 target puts Sainsbury's ahead of rivals, critics noted that it does not yet extend to the supermarket's supply network, which accounts for most of its emissions.

Currently, Sainsbury's produces one million tonnes of carbon each year, although, the supermarket said that figure had fallen by a third in the last 15 years.

Over the next two decades, Sainsbury's will spend an average of £50m a year on things like converting some of its vehicles to use alternative fuel and redesigning stores to be more energy efficient in order to achieve the goal.

'Not soon enough'

The plan is one of Mike Coupe's final actions as the boss of Sainsbury's. Last week he announced he will step down in May.

"We are committing to reduce our own carbon emissions and become net zero by 2040, 10 years ahead of the government's own targets, because 2050 isn't soon enough," he said in a statement.

He said the chain had spent £260m on things like energy-efficient lighting and refrigeration over the last decade.

'Tip of the iceberg'

The 2040 deadline, however, only targets emissions that Sainsbury's directly controls, like heating and lighting. It does not extend to the firm's supply chain.

"Direct operations is just the tip of iceberg," Dexter Galvin from charity, the Carbon Disclosure Project, told the BBC. He said there were no details on supply chain, which he described as a "big gap".

"[Sainsbury's is] too late to the party. Tesco and Co-Op have approved targets already including supply chain," he said.

Mike Childs, head of policy for Friends of the Earth, said: "The influence supermarket chains have over suppliers is also huge - they must use that to encourage better environmental standards while still ensuring a fair deal for farmers."

While governments struggle to meet their ambitions on climate change, many businesses are putting words into action. In fact, there's something of a climate "arms race" between consumer-facing firms like supermarkets.

Sainsbury's promise of net zero emissions by 2040 is a full decade earlier than Tesco's target.

But the plan's not quite as impressive as it seems because so far Sainsbury's target applies only to its own emissions - NOT the much higher emissions of its suppliers. The full accounting will come later, the firm says.

There's a target on water too - Sainsbury's says it's reducing water usage by capturing rain on roofs, and recycling water from car washes and ice on fish counters.

But most radical is its initiative to halve plastic packaging by 2025. This is said to be very ambitious.

Experts warn, though, that in their rush to ban plastic, firms shouldn't use substitutes that are even worse for the planet.

Sainsbury's said it will work with suppliers to set their own "ambitious" net zero commitments.

And Mr Childs, from Friends of the Earth, said: "It's encouraging to see Sainsbury's stepping up to the plate on the climate emergency - the rapid transition to a net zero economy is urgently required.

"Supermarkets have a huge influence on our personal carbon footprints, so the more they can do to embrace and encourage greener lifestyles the better for us all."

Rival, Tesco has said it plans to achieve net zero by 2050, 10 years later than Sainsbury's. However, it has also set targets for its suppliers demanding they reduce carbon emissions by 7% this year.--BBC

Asian markets plunge further as coronavirus claims more lives

Asian stocks extended a global selloff on Tuesday as China took more drastic steps to combat the coronavirus outbreak, while bonds found favour on expectations central banks would need to keep stimulus flowing to offset the likely economic drag.

As the number of deaths rose above 100 and the virus spread to more than 10 countries, including France, Japan and the United States, some health experts questioned whether China can contain the epidemic.

China has already extended the Lunar New Year holiday to February 2 nationally, and to February 9 for Shanghai. On Tuesday, the country's largest steelmaking city in northern Hebei province, Tangshan, suspended all public transit in an effort to prevent the spread of the virus.

With China's and Hong Kong's financial markets shut, investors were selling the offshore yuan and the Australian dollar as a proxy for risk.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.8 percent in Asian trading on Tuesday, while Japan's Nikkei was 0.7 percent down.

After a holiday on Monday, Australian shares tumbled 1.3 percent and South Korea's Kospi index skidded 3.3 percent. Singapore's Straits Times Index also declined by more than 2 percent.

"China's growing importance in Asia-Pacific trade and investment flows has created considerable vulnerability for the Asia-Pacific region from this type of unpredictable 'black swan' event," said Rajiv Biswas, Asia Pacific Chief Economist at IHS Markit in a note sent to Al Jazeera.

"A key near-term risk is from the negative impact on consumer confidence in China if the Wuhan epidemic continues to escalate," Biswas said.

Analysts said travel and tourism would be the hardest-hit sectors together with retail and liquor sales, though healthcare and online shopping were seen as likely outperformers.

"The wildcard is not the fatality rate, but how infectious the Wuhan virus is," Citi economists wrote in a note.

"The economic impact will depend on how successfully this outbreak is contained."

On Monday, key indexes for British, French and German equity markets slid more than 2 percent, as did pan-European markets on worries about the potential economic impact from the deadly virus. Stocks on Wall Street fell more than 1 percent.

E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 reversed some of the losses after slumping 1.6 percent overnight for their biggest single-day percentage loss since last October. They were last up 0.25 percent.

'Knee-jerk reaction'

Analysts at JPMorgan said the coronavirus outbreak was an "unexpected risk factor" for markets though they see the contagion as a regional rather than a global shock.

"The rise in risk aversion and worry of a region-wide demand shock ... means the knee-jerk market reaction will likely be to richen low-yielding government bonds," JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note.

"Concerns about coronavirus contagion has driven yields lower and is the latest risk of a series that have driven US Treasury [UST] yields far below what fundamentals indicate."

Investors typically view USTs as safer investments in times of heightened economic risk, although returns, or yields, decline as prices rise on buying activity.

UST 10-year note yields dived as deep as 1.598 percent on Monday, the lowest since October 10. Yields on two-year paper also fell sharply while Fed fund futures rallied as investors priced in a higher probability of an interest rate cut later this year.

The Japanese yen, which has been rising for the past five sessions and is considered another safe haven during periods of uncertainty, paused at 108.94 per US dollar.

The Australian dollar was last down 0.1 percent at $0.6752, on track for its third straight day of losses.

The euro was steady at $1.1017.

In commodities, Brent crude oil futures extended losses, shedding 15 cents at $59.17 while US crude eased 12 cents to $53.02.

Spot gold was flat at $1,581.11 per ounce.

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA AND NEWS AGENCIES

NZ Economic Outlook: Through the looking glass – ANZ 

In its quarterly economic outlook, analysts at the Australia and New Zealand Baking Group (ANZ) say that the economy is at a crossroads and the political and international context will be crucial.

Key quotes

While capacity pressures have eased, economic momentum appears to be finding a floor, with drivers in place for gradual improvement over the next two years, despite headwinds.

2020 should bring a mild improvement in global growth, but for many economies, this won’t be sufficient to see inflation lift sustainably to target. The hurdle for further easing isn’t high, but with many central banks running low on ammo, it could be time for fiscal policy to up the ante.

Housing market strength, fiscal spending, high terms of trade, the tight labor market and low-interest rates are expected to provide support.

We assume the coronavirus outbreak will weigh a little on our export prices and volumes in the near term, but impacts are highly uncertain at this stage. GDP growth is expected to sit around trend on average, with inflation close to the target.

The RBNZ can afford to be patient, waiting to see how the story unfolds. We now expect the OCR to remain on hold at 1% for the foreseeable future. One of the factors adding to an improved domestic outlook is the Government’s announcement to lift infrastructure spending, and that means more NZGBs on the issue. 

We see upside risk from housing and fiscal spending, but large downside risks from unforecastable global shocks, including the potential impacts of the new coronavirus.

INVESTORS DIARY 2020

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Companies under Cautionary

Bindura Nickel Corporation

Padenga Holdings

Delta Corporation

Meikles Limited

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