Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 04 March 2020

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Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 04 March 2020

 


 

 


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ü  New Bill Would Make Amazon, eBay Liable for Counterfeits

ü  Apple Agrees to Pay $25 Per iPhone Ensnared in 'Batterygate' Slowdowns

ü  Under pressure, AJN Resources scraps planned Kibali stake purchase

ü  South Africa's Bidvest seeks more hygiene sector deal

ü  Kenyan shilling broadly stable as charity flows lend support

ü  Zambian agriculture business launches $81 mln farmer financing scheme

ü  Egypt's Suez Canal revenues at $458.2 million in Feb

ü  South Africa's Ramaphosa makes case for containing public wage bill

ü  Shell's Bonga oilfield in Nigeria to undergo maintenance -spokesman

ü  Angola's Sonangol to begin selling assets in April

ü  Energy firm Aggreko shifting towards solar and battery power

ü  What Coronavirus Could Mean for the Global Economy

ü  Nikola is going public to try to become the first zero-emission big rig
company

ü  Facebook is shifting its Libra cryptocurrency plans after intense
regulatory pressure

ü  Millions of websites face 'insecure' warnings

ü  Coronavirus: World Bank pledges $12bn in emergency aid

ü  US in emergency rate cut as coronavirus spreads

ü  Oil price analysis for March: could US crude & Brent crash even lower?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 


 

New Bill Would Make Amazon, eBay Liable for Counterfeits

E-commerce companies such as Amazon and eBay are currently not liable for
counterfeit goods sold by third-parties on their platforms, but that could
change thanks to newly proposed legislation.

 

As CNBC reports, four House members have co-sponsored the Shop Safe Act,
which would implement new measures to ensure online marketplaces are better
policed and ultimately make the platform owners liable for any counterfeit
goods sold.

 

One of the House members sponsoring the bill, Jerrold Nadler, Chairman of
the House Judiciary Committee, explained, "American consumers increasingly
turn to the internet to shop. Counterfeiters have followed consumers, and it
is clear more must be done to combat the rising trend in online sales of
counterfeit products. Consumers should be able to trust that what they see
and purchase online is what they will get, but counterfeiters continue to
join platforms with ease and masquerade as reliable sellers in order to
infect American households with dangerous and unsafe counterfeit products.
The SHOP SAFE Act proposes a set of commonsense measures to tackle the gaps
in these platforms’ systems and stop counterfeit sales."

 

The commonsense measures proposed in the bill include establishing trademark
liability for companies selling counterfeits, requiring online platforms to
"establish best practices to vet sellers to ensure their legitimacy, remove
counterfeit listings, and remove sellers who repeatedly sell counterfeits,"
and enforcing contributory liability against any online marketplace that
does not prevent the continued sale of counterfeits by a third-party seller.

 

If the Shop Safe Act legislation passes, the focus will be placed firmly on
the platform owners to properly police their own marketplaces. That would
surely cost the platforms more in terms of time, effort, and operational
costs, but as trademark lawyer Josh Gerben rightly points out, "Quite
frankly it is about time that Congress did something about it because the
online marketplaces that exist today have not put consumer safety
first."-entreprenuer.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 


 

Apple Agrees to Pay $25 Per iPhone Ensnared in 'Batterygate' Slowdowns

Apple has agreed to pay affected US customers $25 for slowing down their
older iPhone models without notice.

 

On Friday, the company agreed to settle a class-action lawsuit addressing
“Batterygate,” or how Apple was secretly cranking down the CPU speeds on
older iPhone models to offset errors caused by the aging batteries inside.
According to Reuters, Apple will fork over $310 million to as much as $500
million to fund the payout.

 

In December 2017, the company apologized for the speed-throttling practice.
Apple then proceeded to offer discount $29 battery replacements for the
affected products, which would help restore the CPU speeds back to their
original state. But that didn’t satisfy everyone, as numerous class-action
lawsuits cropped up in response, claiming Apple had misled consumers by
keeping the practice secret.  

 

According to the settlement, the payouts from Apple will cover the iPhone 6,
6 Plus, 6s, 6s Plus, 7, 7 Plus and SE devices that ran iOS 10.2.1 or later
or iOS 11.2 or later. The phones will also need to have been purchased and
used before Dec. 21, 2017, the day after Apple admitted to the
speed-throttling practice. 

 

Although the settlement aims to offer $25 per affected iPhone, it’s possible
the actual reward amount may be lower or higher, depending on how many
customers apply to receive the compensation. A portion of the settlement, at
over $100 million, will also be paid to the litigating attorneys.

 

If the California district court judge approves the settlement, Apple will
appoint an administrator to handle the payouts, which will involve emailing
affected customers. A public website will also be created so that applicable
iPhone owners can apply to receive the $25 reward.  

 

Apple did not immediately respond to a request for comment. While the
proposed award only applies to US customers, the settlement says consumers
outside of the country still have the right to file legal claims against
Apple to pay up over Batterygate. --entreprenuwr

 

 

 

Under pressure, AJN Resources scraps planned Kibali stake purchase

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - AJN Resources has scrapped a plan to purchase a 10%
stake in Congo’s biggest gold mine from state-owned gold firm SOKIMO,
buckling to pressure from Barrick, the operator and 45% stakeholder of the
Kibali mine which opposed the deal.

 

The Canadian junior miner’s shares tumbled nearly 50% last week after
Reuters reported Barrick issued a cease-and-desist notice to block the
Kibali stake purchase.

 

“As a result of its due diligence and further information received, [AJN]
will not proceed with its proposed acquisition of SOKIMO’s 10% free carried
interest in the Kibali Gold Mine,” the company announced in a release late
on Sunday.

 

The transaction would have required approval from both Barrick and Anglogold
Ashanti, each of whom own 45% of Kibali.

 

Congolese civil society groups added to the pressure on AJN, demanding
transparency over the deal and asking why SOKIMO’s stake sales were not
subject to an open tender.

 

AJN said it was continuing due diligence on other projects it plans to
acquire from SOKIMO (Société Minière de Kilo-Moto), namely 30% stakes in
Zani-Kodo, Nizi, and Kibali South, and 35% stakes in Giro Goldfields and
Wanga (Tendao).

 

AJN Resources’ Frankfurt-listed shares were up 5.1% by 1026 GMT on Monday
after the announcement.

 

 

 

 

South Africa's Bidvest seeks more hygiene sector deals

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Bidvest is on the look out for more acquisitions in
the hygiene business to build on its purchase of British-based hygiene
service provider PHS Group announced in December.

 

Bidvest, whose businesses include freight, automotive and aviation services,
is betting on growth drivers such as urbanisation, demand for better hygiene
and safety standards as well as a growing and ageing population to boost
hygiene market growth.

 

Bidvest’s purchase of PHS Group for around 9.1 billion rand marked a move to
expand beyond its South African home market.

 

“From there (PHS) you could very likely see us moving across the globe into
virtually any geography,” CEO Lindsay Ralphs said during a news conference.

 

“Hygiene services have traditionally been our significant target worldwide,
it’s a very large industry worldwide but quite fragmented.”

 

Ralphs said another industry Bidvest was potentially looking to expand into
outside South Africa was plumbing supply, while at home it is looking for
bolt-on acquisitions.

 

Bidvest reported a 3.9% drop in normalised headline earnings per share
(NHEPS) for the six-months to Dec. 31 to 610.9 cents compared with 635.7
cents in 2018 after new international accounting standards and a write-off
of money owed by South African Airways.

 

Excluding the effects of the IFRS 16 accounting change, normalised HEPS rose
0.1%, Bidvest said in a statement.

 

Bidvest, which owns 27.2% of airline operator Comair, said it had taken a
share of Comair’s impairment of the SAA settlement owed to it.

 

In February, Comair, which operates low-cost carrier Kulula.com, said SAA
had breached the terms of a 1.1 billion rand settlement agreement after it
was placed under business rescue, resulting in Comair writing that claim
off.

 

Trading profit increased 19.8% to 4.0 billion rand ($255.31 million), while
revenue grew 9.2% as a result of the consolidation of drugmaker Adcock
Ingram.

 

Ralphs said that the coronavirus outbreak was number one on Bidvest’s risk
profile, with a lot of its products imported internationally.

 

“If they are not imported directly from China, a lot of the raw materials
are made in China,” Ralphs said.

 

“We do have quite significant facilities of stock at the moment so there is
no imminent short-term problem with regards to inventory levels. We’re
making every possible contingency plan to ensure that it doesn’t disrupt our
business,” he said.

 

Bidvest’s business is 35% product driven, with tools, equipments, plumbing
material and some components of the automotive business made in China, but
not a huge portion, he also said.

 

($1 = 15.6671 rand)

 

 

 

Kenyan shilling broadly stable as charity flows lend support

NAIROBI (Reuters) - The Kenyan shilling was broadly stable on Monday as hard
currency inflows from non-governmental organizations and offshore investors
buying government debt helped provide support, traders said.

 

At 0853 GMT, commercial banks quoted the shilling at 101.20/40 per dollar,
compared with 101.10/30 at Friday’s close.

 

 

 

Zambian agriculture business launches $81 mln farmer financing scheme

LUSAKA (Reuters) - Zambia’s African Green Resources (AGR) on Sunday launched
an $81 million financing programme under which the company and its partners
will provide farm supplies and technology to farmers in exchange for grain.

 

As part of broader plans by AGR to invest $150 million in Zambia for
projects including a 50 megawatt solar farm and irrigation dam, AGR will
target 120 commercial farmers and 250,000 small and middle farmers with the
new programme to boost food security in Zambia and the surrounding region,
chairman Zuneid Yousuf said in a statement.

 

It will cover 60,000 tonnes of fertiliser for wheat and soya farming - worth
$55 million - and $26 million for projects such as the expansion of grain
storage silos. It will be financed through regional and global banks, with
the money repaid from the produce the programme yields.

 

“We expect to receive 44,000 tonnes of wheat per season,” Yousuf said, some
of which will be processed before being sold on local and international
markets.

 

“We will repay the loan from sales of wheat flour, soya processing plant
products and silo revenue.”

 

Some of the money is also guaranteed by the African Development Bank, the
African Union, Sace Italy and Agriculture Grain International.

 

The farmers, meanwhile, would benefit from the ability to grow their
businesses with the help of access to markets and credit finance, Yousuf
added.

 

World Food Programme (WFP) estimates indicate that a record 45 million
people in 16 nations in southern Africa face growing hunger after repeated
drought, low yields, widespread flooding and sluggish economic growth.

 

 

 

Egypt's Suez Canal revenues at $458.2 million in Feb

CAIRO (Reuters) - Suez Canal revenues increased to $458.2 million in
February compared with $433.9 million during the same month last year, its
authority said in a statement on Sunday.

 

The canal’s revenues were below the $497.1 million made in January.

 

The canal is the fastest shipping route between Europe and Asia and one of
the Egyptian government’s main sources of foreign currency.

 

 

 

South Africa's Ramaphosa makes case for containing public wage bill

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said on
Monday that “focused discussions” would be needed between the government and
trade unions on ways to slow the rate at which public sector wages are
growing.

 

Ramaphosa used a weekly newsletter to the nation to back up Finance Minister
Tito Mboweni, who proposed 160 billion rand ($10.3 billion) of cuts to the
public sector wage bill during a budget speech last week.

 

Mboweni’s budget drew an angry response from unions, which can shut down
parts of the economy if they don’t get their way. Some analysts have
expressed scepticism that Ramaphosa’s government will be able to put an end
to large annual wage increases for public servants.

 

“Our approach is not to dramatically cut the size of the public service, but
to examine the rate at which wages grow,” Ramaphosa said in the newsletter.

 

“Public service wages have on average increased at a much higher rate than
inflation over many years, and we need to fix this if we are to get public
finances under control.”

 

Ramaphosa added that growth in the wage bill had been crowding out spending
on projects that drive economic growth and items that are critical for
service delivery.

 

He said Mboweni’s budget gave a “sobering assessment” of Africa’s most
industrialised economy and that it was unsustainable for the country to be
spending far more than it earns.

 

($1 = 15.5494 rand)

 

 

 

Shell's Bonga oilfield in Nigeria to undergo maintenance -spokesman

LONDON (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell’s Bonga oilfield in Nigeria will
undergo maintenance in March and April, though the impact on production and
exact dates are still being finalised, a spokesman said.

 

Shell operates the offshore field via its Nigerian subsidiary SNEPCo. In
March, around 153,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude were due for export,
according to a loading programme.

 

“The Bonga FPSO will be undergoing scheduled maintenance and project
activities in addition to regulatory inspections during March and April.
Exact dates and production impacts are currently under review,” the
spokesman said.

 

So far, no April loading programme has emerged. Traders said just two cargo
loading dates came out for April 1-2 and 11-12, the first of which is likely
a deferral from March.

 

Bonga, known as Bonga North West, is located in the OML 118 block. Shell
announced plans to develop another field called Bonga South West inside the
same area. The $10 billion development is expected to add 200,000 bpd,
roughly 10% of Nigeria’s current oil production.

 

However, uncertainty over future fiscal terms has delayed a final investment
decision.

 

 

 

 

Angola's Sonangol to begin selling assets in April

LONDON (Reuters) - Angolan state oil company Sonangol will begin in April to
sell its stakes in several private firms, chair Sebastiao Gaspar Martins
said, as part of a government bid to privatise key state assets including
parts of Sonangol itself by 2022.

 

The eleven companies include local bank Banco BAI as well as Sonamet,
Sonatip and Sonadit dedicated to metals, maritime services and the
maintenance of offshore companies respectively.

 

Martins, quoted by state news agency Angop late on Thursday, said it was too
early to put a value on the stakes.

 

Angola, Africa’s second biggest oil exporter, is struggling with declining
oil output and economic doldrums which have galvanized authorities to
streamline a bloated public sector and focus Sonangol, its largest company,
on its core business.

 

Describing Sonangol as an “octopus”, the country’s minister of Mineral
Resources and Petroleum, Diamantino Azevedo, has said it would need to shed
stakes in everything from hotels to aviation around the world before a 30%
share sale in 2022.

 

An anti-corruption drive has gathered steam since 2017, when President Joao
Lourenco ended former Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos’ nearly
40-year grip on politics.

 

Angola has named billionaire former first daughter Isabel dos Santos as a
suspect over alleged mismanagement and misappropriation of funds while she
was chairwoman of Sonangol in 2016-2017. Dos Santos has denied any
corruption.

 

The Angolan state will exit full or part ownership of 81 companies this year
via public tender, six by auction and three in IPOs, with 12 set to be
privatized in 2021 and four in 2022, according to Angop.

 

Among the last will be Sonangol, along with state-owned diamond giant
Endiama.

 

Martins said Sonangol had slashed its debt at the end of 2019 by more than
half to $1.25 billion year-on-year.

 

President Lourenco sacked Martins’ predecessor Carlos Saturnino as chair of
the state energy firm last year amid heavy debt and domestic fuel shortages.

 

 

 

Energy firm Aggreko shifting towards solar and battery power

Energy firm Aggreko is shifting towards solar and battery power in its
supply of temporary generation to foreign markets and major sporting events.

 

The company has built up a world-leading role in supply of diesel generators
to power developing countries.

 

It is also involved in heavy mining and the oil industry in remote areas,
the Olympic games, and music festivals.

 

It is now responding to pressure from customers to cut carbon emissions.

 

The chief executive, Chris Weston, is shifting the company's emphasis to a
hybrid technology including solar or wind power, backed up by a gas
generator and battery units to deal with intermittent renewable energy
supply.

 

Use of data

The units, the size of a shipping container, are transported around the
world from its assembly plant in Dumbarton.

 

Aggreko relies increasingly on use of data as its operations become more
complex, with 100 staff employed at a data handling centre in Glasgow.

 

The headquarters office is also in Glasgow, having spun out of the Christian
Salvesen food processing business.

 

Aggreko's financial results for 2019 were published on Tuesday, with revenue
falling 8%, and pre-tax profit rising by 9% to £199m.

 

 

The figures look better when the peak of activity around the Winter Olympic
Games in 2018 is taken into account - with revenue falling 1% to £1.6bn, and
pre-tax profit up 13%.

 

The share price rose 5% on the London Stock Exchange in the hours after the
financial results were published.

 

Aggreko has the contract to supply temporary power to the Olympics in Japan
later this year.

 

Most of the equipment has been delivered, and Chris Weston said the project
is on track. However, there are doubts about the Games going ahead on
schedule, due to the spread of Covid-19 virus.

 

Looking ahead, Mr Weston told BBC Scotland there is an exciting prospect in
the next five to 10 years of transition. "We're going to see a transition
from fossil fuel to low-carbon forms of generation. We can play a major role
in helping our customers through that process.

 

"This is a huge opportunity for Aggreko. It plays to our strengths. There
are few competitors out there with this ability to integrate the various
methods of generation."

 

Hurricane damage

The best prospects are seen as mining and power utilities across Latin
America and Africa in particular.

 

North America provides opportunities for strong growth, up 5% last year, and
by more if the reduced need to compensate for hurricane damage in 2018 is
taken into account.

 

Support for utilities, including those disabled by Californian forest fires,
was up 16% last year, building and construction was up 16%, oil and gas
continued to rise, with power supply on remote fracking sites.

 

If the current "pipeline" of orders builds up, Mr Weston said there could be
opportunities to increase the number of power units being assembled at the
Dumbarton plant.--BBC

 

 

 

What Coronavirus Could Mean for the Global Economy

Having largely ignored Covid-19 as it spread across China, global financial
markets reacted strongly last week when the virus spread to Europe and the
Middle East, stoking fears of a global pandemic. Since then, Covid-19 risks
have been priced so aggressively across various asset classes that some fear
a recession in the global economy may be a foregone conclusion.

 

In our conversations, business leaders are asking whether the market
drawdown truly signals a recession, how bad a Covid-19 recession would be,
what the scenarios are for the growth and recovery, and whether there will
be any lasting structural impact from the unfolding crisis.

 

In truth, projections and indices won’t answer these questions. Hardly
reliable in the calmest of times, a GDP forecast is dubious when the virus
trajectory is unknowable, as are the effectiveness of containment efforts,
and consumers’ and firms’ reactions. There is no single number that credibly
captures or foresees Covid-19’s economic impact.

 

Instead, we must take a careful look at markets signals across asset
classes, recession and recovery patterns, as well as the history of
epidemics and shocks, to glean insights into the path ahead.

 

What Markets are Telling Us

Last week’s brutal drawdown in global financial markets might seem to
indicate that the world economy is on a path to recession. Valuations of
safe assets have spiked sharply, with the term premium on long-dated U.S.
government bonds falling to near record lows at negative 116 basis points —
that’s how much investors are willing to pay for the safe harbor of U.S.
government debt. As a result, mechanical models of recession risk have
ticked higher.

 

Yet, a closer look reveals that a recession should not be seen as a foregone
conclusion.

 

First, take valuations of risk assets, where the impact of Covid-19 has not
been uniform. On the benign end, credit spreads have risen remarkably
little, suggesting that credit markets do not yet foresee funding and
financing problems. Equity valuations have conspicuously fallen from recent
highs, but it should be noted that they are still elevated relative to their
longer-term history. On the opposite end of the spectrum, volatility has
signaled the greatest strain, intermittently putting implied next-month
volatility on par with any of the major dislocations of the past 30 years,
outside of the global financial crisis.

 

Second, while financial markets are a relevant recession indicator (not
least because they can also cause them), history shows that bear markets and
recessions should not be automatically conflated. In reality, the overlap is
only about two out of every three U.S. bear markets — in other words, one
out of every three bear markets is non-recessionary. Over the last 100
years, we counted seven such instances where bear markets did not coincide
with recessions.

 

There is no doubt that financial markets now ascribe significant disruptive
potential to Covid-19, and those risks are real. But the variations in asset
valuations underline the significant uncertainty surrounding this epidemic,
and history cautions us against drawing a straight line between financial
market sell-offs and the real economy.

 

What Would a Covid-19-Induced Recession Look Like?

Though market sentiment can be misleading, recessionary risk is real. The
vulnerability of major economies, including the U.S. economy, has risen as
growth has slowed and the expansions of various countries are now less able
to absorb shocks. In fact, an exogenous shock hitting the U.S. economy at a
time of vulnerability has been the most plausible recessionary scenario for
some time.

 

Recessions typically fall into one of three categories:

 

Real recession. Classically, this is a CapEx boom cycle that turns to bust
and derails the expansion. But severe exogenous demand and supply shocks —
such as wars, disasters, or other disruptions — can also push the real
economy into a contraction. It’s here that Covid-19 has the greatest chance
to infect its host.

Policy recession. When central banks leave policy rates too high relative to
the economy’s “neutral” rate, they tighten financial conditions and credit
intermediation, and, with a lag, choke off the expansion. This risk remains
modest — outside of the U.S. rates are already rock bottom or even negative,
while the Federal Reserve has delivered a surprise cut of 50 basis points.
Outside of the monetary policy response, the G7 finance ministers have also
pledged fiscal support.

Financial crisis. Financial imbalances tend to build up slowly and over long
periods of time, before rapidly unwinding, disrupting financial
intermediation and then the real economy. There are some marked differences
globally, yet in the critical U.S. economy, financial crisis risks are
difficult to point to. Some commentators point to the bubble in corporate
credit, as seen in significant issuance and tight spreads. Yet, we struggle
with the subprime analogy of the last recession, as corporate credit neither
funds a real economy boom (as subprime did with housing), nor is the debt
held on banks’ balance sheets. Both factors limit the systemic risk of a
potential shakeout in credit, though this risk can’t be dismissed entirely.
It’s difficult to see Covid-19 contributing to financial imbalances, but
stress could arise from cash flow strains, particular in small and medium
enterprises (SMEs).

Looking at this taxonomy, and again at history, there is some good news in
the “real economy” classification. Though idiosyncratic, real recessions
tend to be more benign than either policy recessions or those induced by
financial crisis, as they represent potentially severe but essentially
transient demand (or supply) shocks. Policy recessions, by contrast, can be,
depending on the size of the error, severe. In fact, the Great Depression
was induced by perhaps the largest policy error ever. And financial crises
are the most pernicious kind, since they introduce structural problems into
the economy that can take a long time to be corrected.

 

What is the Likely Recovery Path?

Whether economies can avoid the recession or not, the path back to growth
under Covid-19 will depend on a range of drivers, such as the degree to
which demand will be delayed or foregone, whether the shock is truly a spike
or lasts, or whether there is structural damage, among other factors. It’s
reasonable to sketch three broad scenarios, which we described as V-U-L.

 

V-shaped: This scenario describes the “classic” real economy shock, a
displacement of output, but growth eventually rebounds. In this scenario,
annual growth rates could fully absorb the shock. Though it may seem
optimistic amid today’s gloom, we think it is plausible.

U-shaped: This scenario is the ugly sibling of V — the shock persists, and
while the initial growth path is resumed, there is some permanent loss of
output. Is this plausible for Covid-19? Absolutely, but we’d want to see
more evidence of the virus’ actual damage to make this the base case.

L-shaped: This scenario is the very ugly and poor relation of V and U. For
this to materialize, you’d have to believe in Covid-19’s ability to do
significant structural damage, i.e. breaking something on the economy’s
supply side — the labor market, capital formation, or the productivity
function. This is difficult to imagine even with pessimistic assumptions. At
some point we will be on the other side of this epidemic.

 

Again, it’s worth looking back at history to place the potential impact path
of Covid-19 empirically. In fact, V-shapes monopolize the empirical
landscape of prior shocks, including epidemics such as SARS, 1968 Asian flu,
1958 Hong-Kong flu, and 1918 Spanish Flu.

 

 

Will There be Any Lasting Economic Consequences of Covid-19?

To understand this, we need to examine the transmission mechanism through
which the health crisis infects the economy.

 

If the taxonomy of recessions tells us where the virus likely attacks the
economy, transmission channels tell us how the virus takes control of its
host. This is important since it implies different impacts and remedies.
There are three plausible transmission channels:

 

Indirect hit to confidence (wealth effect): A classic transmission of
exogenous shocks to the real economy is via financial markets (and more
broadly financial conditions) — they become part of the problem. As markets
fall and household wealth contracts, household savings rates move up and
thus consumption must fall. This effect can be powerful, particularly in
advanced economies where household exposure to the equity asset class is
high, such as the U.S. That said, it would take both a steep (more bear
market than correction) and sustained decline.

Direct hit to consumer confidence: While financial market performance and
consumer confidence correlate strongly, long-run data also shows that
consumer confidence can drop even when markets are up. Covid-19 appears to
be a potentially potent direct hit on confidence, keeping consumers at home,
weary of discretionary spending, and perhaps pessimistic about the longer
term.

Supply-side shock: The above two channels are demand shocks, but there is
additional transmission risk via supply disruption. As the virus shuts down
production and disables critical components of supply chains, gaps turn into
problems, production could halt, furloughs and layoffs could occur. There
will be huge variability across economies and industries, but taking the
U.S. economy as an example, we think it would take quite a prolonged crisis
for this to feed through in a significant way. Relative to the demand
impact, we see this as secondary.

Recessions are predominantly cyclical, not structural, events. And yet the
boundary can be blurred. To illustrate, the global financial crisis was a
(very bad) cyclical event in the U.S., but it had a structural overhang. The
economy rebounded, yet household deleveraging is an ongoing secular
phenomenon — household willingness (and ability) to borrow is structurally
impaired, and the collateral damage, structurally, is that policy makers
find it much harder to push the cycle just by managing short-term interest
rates today.

 

Could Covid-19 create its own structural legacy? History suggests that the
global economy after a major crisis like Covid-19 will likely be different
in a number of significant ways.

 

Microeconomic legacy: Crises, including epidemics, can spur the adoption of
new technologies and business models. The SARS outbreak of 2003 is often
credited with the adoption of online shopping among Chinese consumers,
accelerating Alibaba’s rise. As schools have closed in Japan and could
plausibly close in the U.S. and other markets, could e-learning and
e-delivery of education see a breakthrough? Further, have digital efforts in
Wuhan to contain the crisis via smart-phone trackers effectively
demonstrated a powerful new public health tool?

Macroeconomic legacy: Already it looks like the virus will hasten the
progress to more decentralized global value chains — essentially the virus
adds a biological dimension to the political and institutional forces that
have pushed the pre-2016 value chain model into a more fragmented direction.

Political legacy: Political ramifications are not to be ruled out, globally,
as the virus puts to the test various political systems’ ability to
effectively protect their populations. Brittle institutions could be
exposed, and political shifts triggered. Depending on its duration and
severity, Covid-19 could even shape the U.S. presidential election. At the
multilateral level, the crisis could be read as a call to more cooperation
or conversely push the bipolar centers of geopolitical power further apart.

What Should Leaders Do in Relation to Economic Risks?

The insights from financial markets and the history of analogous shocks can
be operationalized as follows:

 

Don’t become dependent on projections. Financial markets are currently
reflecting great uncertainty. A wide range of scenarios remain plausible and
should be explored by companies.

Don’t allow financial markets gyrations to cloud judgement about the
business you lead.

Focus on consumer confidence signals, trust your own instincts, and know how
to leverage your company’s data in calibrating such insights. The impact
will not be uniform, and the conclusions will be specific to your industry.

Plan for the best and prepare for the worst trajectories. Keep in mind that
a V-shaped recovery is the plausible scenario conceptually and empirically,
but don’t let that insight make you complacent.

Begin to look past the crisis. What micro or macroeconomic or legacy will
Covid-19 have? What opportunities or challenges will arise?

Consider how you will address the post-crisis world. Can you be part of
faster adoption of new technologies, new processes, etc? Can you eventually
find advantage in adversity for your company, clients and society?--hbr.com

 

 

 

 

Nikola is going public to try to become the first zero-emission big rig
company

Electric trucking startup Nikola is becoming a publicly traded company. The
Arizona-based outfit announced Tuesday that it’s merging with a publicly
listed acquisition company called VectoIQ, in a move that’s similar to what
space company Virgin Galactic just pulled off in the second half of 2019.
The transaction is expected to close sometime in the second quarter of this
year, and when it does, Nikola will be listed on the NASDAQ exchange under
the name NKLA.

 

Nikola will receive $525 million in new investment as a result, adding to an
existing stockpile of $525 million it raised across three rounds of funding
(and funding from a joint venture it started in Europe).

 

NIKOLA HAS DEVELOPED HYDROGEN- AND BATTERY-POWERED BIG RIGS

Founded in 2015, Nikola set out to make zero-emission big rigs using
hydrogen fuel cell technology. While a number of companies like Tesla,
Daimler, Freightliner, and other established players and startups are
working on all-electric trucks, Nikola is one of the only ones pursuing
hydrogen-powered big rigs. However it gets done, though, switching big rigs
over to zero-emission powertrains could help put a big dent into the
pollution caused by the transportation sector.

 

The startup has developed three different trucks, with the last two aimed at
mass production in the US and European markets. But the company has since
developed versions of its trucks that are battery-powered, too, for
companies that don’t need as much range as the hydrogen-powered versions
provide.

 

Hydrogen-powered vehicles have never really caught on in the passenger car
space because there’s been very little investment in the necessary
infrastructure. Where companies like Tesla and multiple governments and
clean energy groups have spent the last decade building out relatively vast
networks of electric vehicle chargers, only a handful of hydrogen filling
stations exist to date.--theverge.com

 

 

 

Facebook is shifting its Libra cryptocurrency plans after intense regulatory
pressure

Facebook is altering its plans for its Libra cryptocurrency project
following months of severe regulatory pressure and political pushback,
according to a new report from The Information published on Tuesday.

 

According to the report, Facebook no longer intends to make the Libra token
— the actual blockchain-based cryptocurrency it’s in the process of
developing in partnership with the nonprofit Libra Association — the
centerpiece of its digital payments strategy. Instead, Facebook’s Libra
project will reportedly transition to supporting both existing
government-backed currencies, like the US dollar and the euro, and the Libra
token when it is eventually completed and ready to launch.

 

Additionally, The Information says Facebook is delaying the launch of its
separate Calibra digital wallet, which was to be a primary showcase for the
Libra technology by allowing anyone with a smartphone to acquire and store
the cryptocurrency and then pay for various goods with it. The wallet will
now support multiple currencies, of which Libra will be just one.

 

FACEBOOK WILL NO LONGER PROMOTE ITS OWN DIGITAL CURRENCY AND INSTEAD USE
EXISTING ONES

Calibra, originally slated to launch this summer, is now coming out in
October, The Information reports. The wallet, instead of becoming available
all over the world at launch, may have its availability restricted to
whatever government-backed currencies the Libra project eventually supports
within the app. That could slow Calibra’s rollout. The Information says
Calibra’s core money-storing and transfer features are still scheduled to
come to both Facebook Messenger and WhatsApp, too, although it’s unclear
what the timeline for that process will be relative to Calibra’s planned
October launch.

 

“Reporting that Facebook does not intend to offer the Libra currency in its
Calibra wallet is entirely incorrect. Facebook remains fully committed to
the project,” a Facebook spokesperson said in a statement given to The
Verge, referencing The Information’s initial assertion that the company was
no longer planning to support the Libra token in its digital wallet. The
Information has since corrected its report.

 

The Libra project was first announced in June of last year as a bold yet
risky endeavor to revolutionize money transfer and position Facebook and its
partners on the ground floor of a new, blockchain-based digital payments
industry. It had two parts: a Libra token, designed broadly similar to other
cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin but with fundamental differences intended to
make it more stable and less of a speculative asset, and a blockchain
network that would be the technical foundation of the token and the tool for
verifying transactions and token ownership.

 

Facebook anticipated at least some scrutiny, so it created a nonprofit,
called the Libra Association, of which Facebook and its new Calibra
subsidiary would represent only one member. It included, at launch, 27 other
companies and nonprofits. That group, based out of Zurich, Switzerland, has
been tasked with overseeing the cryptocurrency’s development, as well as the
blockchain network that would support it. The currency was also to be
supported by a pool of assets, including existing currencies from around the
world, contributed by the various participating members, which at launch
included big names like Mastercard, PayPal, Stripe, and
Visa.---theverges.com

 

 

 

Millions of websites face 'insecure' warnings

Some well-known websites could stop functioning properly on Wednesday, 4
March, after a bug was found in the digital certificates used to secure
them.

 

The organisation that issues the certificates revealed that three million
need to be immediately revoked.

 

Visitors to affected sites will be greeted with an alert warning them the
site is insecure.

 

One expert said the issue could result in a "loss of trust".

 

The internet security research group (ISRG) is the non-profit organisation
behind the project, Let's Encrypt, and last month celebrated issuing its
billionth certificate.

 

The project has some high-profile backers, including Cisco, Facebook and
Google, and is widely credited as one of the driving forces behind
businesses securing their websites.

 

In a notification email to its clients, the organisation said: "We recently
discovered a bug in the Let's Encrypt certificate authority code.

 

"Unfortunately, this means we need to revoke the certificates that were
affected by this bug, which includes one or more of your certificates. To
avoid disruption, you'll need to renew and replace your affected
certificate(s) by Wednesday, March 4, 2020. We sincerely apologise for the
issue."

 

'Unacceptable'

Digital certificates are basically small pieces of code created by using
sophisticated mathematics that ensure that communication between devices or
websites are sent in an encrypted manner, and are therefore secure.

 

They play an essential role in keeping IT infrastructure up and running
safely and are issued by certificate authorities, who electronically verify
that the certificates are genuine. When issued, these certificates are given
an expiration date of anything between a few months and several years.

 

Visitors to those websites not able to renew their certificate by this date
will see security warnings telling them that the site is insecure.

 

On a community forum, one website manager, based in New Zealand, complained
he had only received "75 minutes" notice of the need to update, which he
said was "unacceptable".

 

Alan Woodward, a professor of computer science at Surrey University, told
the BBC: "Let's Encrypt is a significant part of the security infrastructure
of the web."

 

He said that while it had "responsibly" revealed the bug, its clients faced
uncertainty.

 

"Nobody knows how they will deal with it. Businesses will have to apply for
a new certificate so there could be an interruption to services which will
result in a loss of trust. Users will experience websites that say they have
a security problem."

 

While the organisation has issued a list of the certificate numbers, it has
not made public the names behind them but Prof Woodward said it would
probably affect "well-known" websites.--BBC

 

 

 

Coronavirus: World Bank pledges $12bn in emergency aid

The World Bank has committed $12bn (£9.4bn) in aid for developing countries
grappling with the spread of the coronavirus.

 

The emergency package includes low-cost loans, grants and technical
assistance.

 

The action comes as leaders around the world pledge to shield their
countries from the economic impact of the outbreak.

 

It follows warnings that slowdown from the outbreak could tip countries into
recession.

 

The aid is intended to help countries improve their public health response
to the crisis, as well as work with the private sector to reduce the
economic impact.

 

"What we're trying to do is limit the transmission of the disease," World
Bank Group President David Malpass told the BBC.

 

The organisation said it would prioritise the poorest and most at-risk
countries in distributing the aid to counter the effects of the virus, which
has spread to more than 70 countries around the world.

 

Half of the package comes from the bank's International Finance Corporation,
which works with the private sector. About $4bn of the $12bn is being
shifted from previously available funds.

 

Authorities have confirmed more than 92,000 cases of the virus of which more
than 80,000 are in China. More than 3,000 people have died globally, the
vast majority in China.

 

"The point is to move fast; speed is needed to save lives," Mr Malpass said
in conference with reporters. "There are scenarios where much more resources
may be required. We'll adapt our approach and resources as needed."

 

The Dow Jones shed nearly 800 points on Tuesday, paring Monday's big gains.
This was despite a rare emergency move by the US Federal Reserve to cut
interest rates by 0.5% amid fears over the impact of the coronavirus.

 

It was the biggest cut since the global financial crisis more than a decade
ago.

 

In other developments:

 

Finance ministers from the G7 countries said they were "ready to take
action", including fiscal measures to aid the response to the virus and
support the global economy

Twitter told its employees to work from home

Google cancelled its annual developer conference

Media captionThe Wuhan shake instead of a handshake?

How are different countries being affected?

Iran has temporarily released more than 54,000 prisoners in an effort to
combat the spread of the virus in crowded jails. The country has reported 77
deaths in less than two weeks.

 

On Tuesday, the health ministry said the number of confirmed cases had risen
by more than 50% for the second day in a row. It now stands at 2,336,
although the real figure is believed to be far higher.

 

Meanwhile, Italy has reported a 50% jump in deaths in the past 24 hours,
with the total standing at 79. Most of the deaths are in Lombardy.

 

Nine deaths have now been confirmed in the US. All of those killed lived in
Washington state.

 

And in Spain, an autopsy on a 69-year-old man who died on 13 February has
revealed he was infected with SARS-CoV-2, local media report. It is the
country's first fatality from the virus.

 

How deadly is Covid-19?

The World Health Organization says the virus appears to particularly affect
those over 60, and people already ill.

 

In the first large analysis of more than 44,000 cases from China, the death
rate was 10 times higher in the very elderly compared to the middle-aged.

 

Read more: How deadly is the coronavirus?

 

Health experts believe Covid-19 does not transmit as efficiently as seasonal
flu and is not generally passed on by people who have no symptoms.--BBC

 

 

 

US in emergency rate cut as coronavirus spreads

The US central bank has slashed interest rates in response to mounting
concerns about the economic impact of the coronavirus.

 

The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to a range
of 1% to 1.25%.

 

The emergency move comes after the G7 group of finance ministers pledged
action earlier on Tuesday.

 

It follows warnings that slowdown from the outbreak could tip countries into
recession.

 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the US economy remains strong but
it is difficult to predict the "magnitude and persistence" of the effects of
the spreading virus.

 

"The virus and the measures that are being taken to contain it will surely
weigh on economic activity for some time, both here and abroad," he said at
a press conference in Washington.

 

"We don't think we have all the answers. But we do believe that our action
will provide a meaningful boost to the economy."

 

The last time the bank made an interest rate cut at an emergency meeting was
during the global financial crisis of 2008.

 

The unanimous decision is a "dramatic turnaround from last week", when many
Fed officials appeared confident that rates, already low by historical
standards, would not need to be cut further, said Paul Ashworth, chief US
economist at Capital Economics said.

 

"With financial markets in turmoil and evidence growing that the coronavirus
is developing into a pandemic, the Fed's change of heart is entirely
understandable," he said.

 

Mr Powell said the bank believed the rate cut would help strengthen consumer
and business confidence, and keep money flowing.

 

Many analysts in recent days had said they expected the Fed to act.

 

However, Peter Tuchman, a stock trader at Quattro Securities, said he did
not think financial markets would necessarily welcome the move. "They're
doing it to support the markets but that makes people fearful that we must
be in bad shape," he told the BBC.

 

"To pull that bullet out so fast and so furiously leaves us with not that
much ammo," he said.

 

Media captionThe US central bank has cut rates amid concerns about the
economic impact of coronavirus.

Global action

Earlier on Tuesday, both Australia and Malaysia cut interest rates as a
result of the outbreak, while finance ministers from the G7 group of nations
pledged to use "all appropriate policy tools" to tackle the economic impact
of coronavirus.

 

The group of major economies said in a joint statement they were monitoring
the outbreak and ready to deploy "fiscal measures".

 

Up to fifth of UK workers 'off sick at same time'

How is the UK planning for an outbreak?

What is coronavirus and what are the symptoms?

Coronavirus: What are the chances of dying?

On Monday, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
warned the global economy could grow at its slowest rate since 2009 this
year because of the virus.

 

The influential think tank forecast growth of just 2.4% in 2020, down from
2.9% in November, but it said a longer "more intensive" outbreak could halve
growth and tip many countries into recession.

 

Growth concerns contributed to sharp falls on major stock markets last week,
but shares had started to rebound on Monday amid signs that governments and
major central banks would work together to tackle the economic hit of
coronavirus.

 

On Tuesday, shares briefly rallied on the decision before turning negative.

 

 

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly called on Mr Powell to lower
interest rates, ignoring tradition that presidents stay quiet on bank policy
to preserve the bank's independence.

 

Following the bank's announcement, he said it should cut further. "It is
finally time for the Federal Reserve to LEAD. More easing and cutting!" he
Tweeted.

 

Mr Powell denied that the bank had been influenced by political
considerations. But he kept the door open to further cuts.

 

Satyam Panday, senior US economist at S&P Global Ratings, said the Fed "did
well by acting decisively and moving sooner".

 

"Given that monetary policy works with a lag, cutting now will help speed up
recovery when the coronavirus concerns have passed," he said. "If the rout
in the financial market continues, more rate cuts are likely to follow in
the upcoming March policy meeting, and beyond if required."

 

First the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors told us they would
use all appropriate policy tools. Not much more than an hour later, the Fed
acted. Will it help?

 

Jerome Powell said it could avoid what he called a tightening of financial
conditions - higher borrowing costs for businesses and households, banks
becoming more reluctant to lend and being less willing to give some leeway
to businesses with cash flow problems.

 

Those are real risks if the disruption were to get more serious. Mr Powell
also said it could boost confidence. But it doesn't look like it will help
much with the most direct economic damage. A rate cut now is probably not
going to make people more enthusiastic about getting on a plane.

 

Nor is it much direct help for firms struggling with shortages of components
due to transport disruptions. Mr Powell acknowledged that a rate cut would
not "fix a broken supply chain".

 

The main effort in this crisis is for health agencies. But we can expect to
see more actions from finance ministries and central banks seeking to
mitigate the economic impact.--BBC

 

 

 

Oil price analysis for March: could US crude & Brent crash even lower?

The slide in oil prices since the beginning of the year has been exacerbated
by the rapid spread of coronavirus beyond its initial outbreak radius in
Wuhan, China. 

 

The price of a Brent barrel that traded at $70.25 only two months ago now
sits at $50.55, representing a slip of more than 28 per cent. Over the same
period, the price of a WTI barrel has also plunged nearly 28 per cent,
falling from $63.27 to $45.59.

 

The question on everyone's lips now is: Could the situation get even worse
for the oil market?

In this article, we try to give an answer by taking a look at the
commodity’s recent performance and checking the key drivers behind its wild
fluctuations. In addition, you will find a video where our chief market
strategist – David Jones – gives the latest oil price technical analysis and
suggests some up-to-date trading tips.

 

What has really happened to oil prices in February?

The COVID-19 virus, which originated in Wuhan, China, has already killed
around 3,000 people around the world and shaken global markets as investors
brace for a steep knock to economic growth. Factory activity in China shrank
at its fastest pace ever during the last month, underscoring the immense
damage from the coronavirus on the world’s second largest economy. 

 

>From currencies to bonds to stocks, the epidemic outbreak has influenced all
corners of financial markets worldwide. Last week, for instance, equities
marked their biggest rout since the financial crisis of 2008. However, for
oil producers, the pain has been particularly severe.

 

Brent crude futures ended Friday at $50.52 per barrel, down 13.6 per cent
for the week. US crude oil was trading at $44.76, a 16.2 per cent weekly
decline. As a matter of fact, prices have not been that low since late 2018.

 

In addition, the prices of US natural gas have also reached their historic
lows, with the commodity trading around $1.70 per million British thermal
units.

 

Witnessing falling commodity prices and oversupply across the industry,
market speculators have placed huge bets against equity valuations in the US
oil and gas sector. Based on the research from S3 Partners, short sellers
have added more than $460m to their short-interest positions since the
beginning of February, making it the largest move of this kind in the sector
since June 2019.

 

Ihor Dusaniwsky, head of predictive analysis at S3, commented: “Short
sellers have put a lot more cash into the pot by shorting another $462m
worth of energy stocks, anticipating further price weakness in the short
term.”

 

It seems like short sellers believe the worst is yet to come for energy
equities. Many traders have spent recent days compiling lists of the most
vulnerable companies, reflecting a negative shift in mood about the
coronavirus among the US hedge funds.

 

Some of the shale-related companies that have been targeted for shorting in
recent weeks are Southwestern Energy (SWN), Range Resources (RRC), Callon
Petroleum (CPE) and Matador Resources.

 

Open a trading account in less than 3 min

 

Open Now

So far this year, the S&P’s energy stocks are down 25 per cent, compared
with a 7.5 per cent drop in the overall S&P 500 Index. According to Bank of
America, the sector is now underperforming the broader market by the largest
margin in almost 80 years. 

 

Oil price analysis: the technical perspective

Do you want to learn what has been recently happening to oil from a
technical point of view and find out how to profit off the volatility?
Wonder where is the price of this commodity heading next? Watch David Jones,
chief market strategist at Capital.com, make his own oil price technical
analysis and review the commodity’s most recent performance:

 

 

Always stay on top of the latest oil price trend and analysis by subscribing
to Capital.com’s YouTube channel.

 

Will the OPEC cartel finally step in and play the savior?

With demand dropping significantly, oil has dipped into a bear market. The
wobbling prices have put high pressure on OPEC to step in and stabilise the
situation. But will the cartel really do something to save the plunging
commodity?

 

The world is likely to receive an answer to this question later this week,
as OPEC members and allied producers are planning to meet in Vienna on
Thursday and Friday.

 

While the epidemic outbreak continues to hamper oil demand, several key
members of OPEC are considering the additional production cuts in the second
quarter of this year. The previously proposed figure suggested a cut of
600,000 barrels per day (bpd).

 

What to expect in March?

As analysts at Fitch Solutions has mentioned: “Inaction by OPEC+ would
likely trigger another potentially severe bout of selling.

 

However, Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, thinks that the production
cut may not be enough to change the trajectory of oil in the short term. He
said: "I'm not sure this would be sufficient to change the negative market
sentiment. What is cheap can get cheaper."

 

On the other hand, Staunovo believes that between six months to a year,
lower business investment across a suffering industry will restrict supply,
helping to support and boost oil prices. Moreover, bargain crude will
eventually stimulate higher demand. --capital.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 


 

INVESTORS DIARY 2020

 


Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

 


 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 


Companies under Cautionary

 

 

 


 

 

 

 


Bindura Nickel Corporation

 

 

 


Padenga Holdings

 

 

 


Delta Corporation

 

 

 


Meikles Limited

 

 

 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 


 

 


DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of
Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not
constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or
subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has
been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or
warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All
opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without
notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be
suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth
companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than
the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any
other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability
whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its
contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this
report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent
investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of
any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are
for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

 


 

 


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