Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 01 May 2020
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Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 01 May 2020
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ü South Africa willing to sell 'poorly functioning' state-owned firms -
finance minister
ü Local investors cushion impact of South Africa bond index exit - for now
ü Glencore slashes spending and output guidance, says can ride out
coronavirus
ü South Africa's economy to contract 5.8% this year
ü Kenya's economy to rebound in 2021 - central bank governor
ü South Africa's tax revenue down $711 million, to worsen once COVID-19
relief measures commence
ü S&P downgrades South Africa further into "junk"
ü Botswana cuts rates, capital ratios for commercial banks in coronavirus
response
ü Visa gives Kenya's Safaricom 'missing link' for global payments'
ü China Moly shrugs off South Africa port disruption as DRC cobalt sales
rise
ü Amazon investors told to 'take a seat' as demand jumps
ü Apple boosted by streaming services despite lockdown
ü How the government plans to get the UK back to work
ü Debt warning over car finance payment holidays
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South Africa willing to sell 'poorly functioning' state-owned firms -
finance minister
JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South Africas Finance Minister Tito Mboweni told
lawmakers on Thursday the government was willing to sell cash-burning
state-owned firms to ease pressure on government finances in the wake of the
coronavirus pandemic and sharply falling tax revenue.
The treasury sees gross domestic product slumping by nearly 6% in 2020,
while tax receipts are expected to tumble by at least a third. Answering
questions during a virtual session to parliament, Mboweni said the
government would sell poorly functioning state firms, without giving
details.
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Local investors cushion impact of South Africa bond index exit - for now
JOHANNESBURG/LONDON (Reuters) - South Africas exclusion from a major global
bond index on Thursday appears to have been a less severe blow than
expected, with foreign investors having been given a full months warning to
exit the market and local investors stepping in to buy.
But if the bonds have so far avoided a sudden shock, they remain vulnerable
to a plunge in sentiment because of the impact of the coronavirus on an
already vulnerable economy.
South Africa lost its last investment grade rating in March, forcing it to
be excluded from the World Government Bond Index (WGBI) on Thursday. That
means some large overseas funds will no longer be able to hold the countrys
debt.
Analysts had predicted that exiting the index could lead to at least $5
billion of forced selling of the governments rand-denominated bonds, based
on its weight in the roughly $1 trillion index.
But with the downgrade arriving on March 27 in the midst of the coronavirus
market rout, index provider FTSE Russell decided to postpone its WGBI
rebalancing until the end of April. That meant investors had plenty of time
to adjust their portfolios and avoid an abrupt exit.
Local asset managers do not expect a severe sudden blow, partly because so
much foreign selling has already happened: finance ministry data shows
foreign investors have already sold 57 billion rand ($3.2 billion) of bonds
this year.
Meanwhile, local investors have stepped in, said Nolan Wapenaar, co-Chief
Investment Officer at Anchor Capital in Johannesburg, pointing to an auction
of a 2026 instrument on Tuesday which saw bids of more than eight times the
amount on offer.
Giulia Pellegrini, senior portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors in
London, said some emerging market (EM) investors still took a shine to South
African debt.
The relative attractiveness of South African local bonds to other EM peers
as well as the depth of the South African domestic market ... helps cushion
this exclusion, she said.
VULNERABLE POSITION
South Africa joined the WGBI in 2012, becoming the first and only African
government bond market in the index.
Getting kicked out is a severe symbolic blow. But with the coronavirus now
dominating investment decisions, it is no longer perceived as the
game-changing event it might once have seemed.
Wikus Furstenberg, portfolio manager at Futuregrowth Asset Management in
Cape Town, said economic fundamentals, rather than membership in an index,
were the big issues.
We dont know how bad the recession will be, he said. South Africa
started this crisis in a vulnerable fiscal position, and its not getting
better.
Africas most industrialised nation was already predicting a budget deficit
of almost 7% of gross domestic product (GDP) before the new coronavirus
struck. Now this years deficit will probably reach double that, economists
say.
That could push its debt-to-GDP ratio close to 80% compared to around 50% as
recently as 2016.
That is uncomfortable. That is saying the yield curve should continue to
steepen and explains why the government is selling more short-dated bonds,
because the longer-term bonds are going to battle to sell, said Anchor
Capitals Wapenaar.
After South Africas exit, attention could shift to Mexico, whose
investment-grade credit ratings are seen under threat.
The WGBI is dominated by developed markets but Poland, Malaysia and Israel
from May are also part of the index.
($1 = 18.0740 rand)
Glencore slashes spending and output guidance, says can ride out coronavirus
LONDON (Reuters) - Glencore cut its 2020 capital expenditure and output
targets on Thursday to reflect the impact of the coronavirus on its
operations, saying the belt-tightening left it well placed to weather the
pandemic.
The miner and trader, reporting first-quarter production data, said spending
for the year would fall by $1 billion-$1.5 billion from an original
expectation of $5.5 billion.
Government restrictions to curb the spread of COVID-19 forced miners
including Glencore to shut some operations while the industry also lowered
spending for the year.
Glencore and its peers have strengthened their balance sheets since the
commodities crash of 2015-16 by paying down debt, cutting costs and holding
back on expensive transactions.
Given our strong liquidity position and resilient business model, we are
well positioned to navigate the current challenges, CEO Ivan Glasenberg
said in a statement.
Glencore closed some operations in Chad, Peru, Colombia, South Africa and
Canada but most of its larger operations have been unscathed by the
disruptions. It said it was re-opening some mines in Canada and South
Africa.
Other miners including Antofagasta, Anglo American and Freeport-McMoRan have
also cut capital expenditure due to the new coronavirus, while Rio Tinto cut
its forecast for annual copper output.
ROBUST BALANCE SHEET
Glencore said copper production in its first quarter to March 31 fell 9% to
293,000 tonnes year on year, while cobalt output slid 44% to 6,100 tonnes as
it shut its Mutanda mine in Congo and its Zambia mine was closed.
The reduction in spending reflects lower production, deferrals and lower
costs due to weaker local currencies, a slump in oil prices and higher
prices for gold, which is a byproduct from its base metals mining.
Costs are expected to be down across the business, with copper lowered by
12%, zinc by 39% and coal by 6%.
For the full year, Glencore cut its production guidance for copper to 1.25
million tonnes from a previous 1.3 million tonnes and lowered zinc output
expectations by 8% to 1.16 million tonnes.
The miner also trimmed expectations for cobalt, ferrochrome, nickel and
coal.
In March, it deferred a decision on paying its $2.6 billion dividend, citing
worsening economic conditions brought on by the coronavirus.
Analysts at UBS said Glencores lower cost, production and capital
expenditure targets implied a higher free cash flow yield, and the miners
robust balance sheet and commodity mix positioned it well for recovery.
Glencore said its marketing business had benefited from the volatile trading
environment, generating annualised earnings within its $2.2 billion to $3.2
billion per annum long-term guidance range.
Its shares were 0.3% lower by 0940 GMT, performing better than a 1.1%
decline in the index of its London peers.
South Africa's economy to contract 5.8% this year
JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South Africas economy is expected to contract by
5.8% in 2020 before rebounding to 4% growth next year, according to a
National Treasury presentation to parliaments finance committee quoting
International Monetary Fund projections.
Africas most industrialised nation was already in recession before the
coronavirus shut down the economy, with overall GDP growth for 2019 at only
0.8%, owing largely to power shortages that hurt industry.
President Cyril Ramaphosa last week announced a 500 billion rand ($27.03
billion) stimulus package to help prop up the economy, including tax relief
measures to small companies, as a spate of sovereign downgrades raise the
cost of borrowing at a time of low growth.
Talking to lawmakers on Thursday, Finance Minister Tito Mboweni said the
government was willing to sell cash-burning state-owned firms to ease
pressure on government finances in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic and
sharply falling tax revenue.
There will be sales, and thats privatisation, there will be sales of some
poorly functioning state-owned enterprises, Mboweni said in a virtual
parliamentary committee meeting.
However, he said there could be exceptions where the government may need to
continue support to troubled state-owned firms, such as the Land Bank, which
last week defaulted on bond payments worth 50 billion rand.
What are we going to do with the Land Bank? We cannot afford for the Land
Bank to fail, the Land Bank is probably too big to fail in the agriculture
sector, Mboweni said.
At the same meeting, South Africas tax commissioner said year-to-date
revenue collection was already down 13 billion rand and likely to get
significantly worse once coronavirus tax relief measures kick in.
($1 = 18.4976 rand)
Kenya's economy to rebound in 2021 - central bank governor
NAIROBI (Reuters) - Kenyas economy is expected to rebound next year, while
its current account deficit will narrow slightly, the central bank governor
said on Thursday, a day after the regulator cut its benchmark lending rate
for the second time in a month.
Governor Patrick Njoroge said the economy was forecast to grow 6.4% in 2021
compared with an expected expansion of 2.3% this year.
We expect 2020 to be a rebound. Currently roughly the estimate is around
6.4%. But I think the point is we will revise that, given the uncertainties
that we have, he told an online news conference.
The coronavirus has badly hurt key sectors such as tourism, horticulture and
manufacturing, all struggling due to the economic slowdown induced by the
pandemic.
The central banks 2021 projection was more optimistic than the World
Banks, which said on Wednesday Kenyas economic growth could rebound to
5.2% in 2021 if its virus containment measures ease by the second half of
this year.
A Reuters poll of economists forecasts growth of 5.0% next year.
The central bank cut its benchmark lending rate again on Wednesday, to 7.0%
from 7.25%.
Njoroge reiterated that the central bank had no target for the shilling
exchange rate and only intervened in the market to smooth out volatility.
He said the shilling was benefiting from the fact that Kenya has a highly
diversified economy and trading partners.
When others are hit significantly because they are oil producers, or
primary commodity producers, when you look at other countries, their
currencies have weakened dramatically, he said.
Kenyas current account deficit is seen at 5.6% of GDP in 2021 compared with
5.8% in 2020, he said, adding this will get a boost from inflows like an
International Monetary Fund disbursement of $750 million in emergency
assistance next week.
He said the government expects another $1 billion from the World Bank the
next two or so weeks.
These are in a sense exceptional, but they will help us in the balance of
payments, he said.
As of Thursday, Kenya had 374 confirmed cases of COVID-19, with 15 deaths.
To stem the spread, the East African country has suspended commercial
flights in and out of the country, imposed a dusk-to-dawn curfew and banned
public gatherings.
It has also halted movement in and out of regions most affected by the virus
in the country, including the capital Nairobi.
The central bank said on Wednesday there was a need for a mechanism to
cushion small and medium businesses, like through a credit guarantee scheme.
Njoroge said the bank, commercial banks and the government had not set an
amount yet that would go into scheme and that they and institutions like the
World Bank were working to see how to best set up the mechanism.
We are thinking of a fund maybe in the order of 100 billion shillings, he
said.
South Africa's tax revenue down $711 million, to worsen once COVID-19 relief
measures commence
CAPE TOWN (Reuters) - South Africas tax commissioner said on Thursday
year-to-date revenue collection was already down 13 billion rand ($711
million), and was likely get significantly worse once coronavirus tax
relief measures kick in.
We do anticipate a significant decline in tax revenues purely driven by the
state of the economy, as well as the tax relief measures that government has
announced, said South African Revenue Service (SARS) head Edward Kieswetter
during a virtual parliamentary briefing.
($1 = 18.2930 rand)
S&P downgrades South Africa further into "junk"
JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - S&P Global Ratings has downgraded South Africas
credit rating further into non-investment grade territory, saying
COVID-19-related pressures will have significant adverse implications for
its already ailing economy and for tax revenues.
S&P lowered its long-term foreign-currency rating on South Africa to BB-
from BB and its long-term local-currency rating to BB from BB+.
The ratings agency assigned a stable outlook on both the foreign- and
local-currency ratings.
South Africas already contracting economy will face a further sharp
COVID-19-related downturn in 2020, S&P said in a statement late on
Wednesday.
The COVID-19 health crisis will create additional and even more substantial
headwinds to GDP growth, owing to a strict five-week domestic lockdown, the
markedly weaker external demand outlook, and tighter credit conditions.
S&P said it forecast the South African economy to shrink by 4.5% this year
compared with its November 2019 estimate of 1.6% growth.
South Africa has spent five weeks under restrictions requiring most of the
population to stay at home apart from essential trips, leaving many
businesses and individuals struggling without income in the recession-hit
economy.
South Africa plans to reopen its agriculture sector and allow some
manufacturing and retail to resume on May 1, as it seeks to balance the need
to restart economic output and curb the spread of the new coronavirus.
S&P said South Africas decision to go into a strict lockdown relatively
early has so far limited the health impact of COVID-19.
Nevertheless, the broader economic fallout will be very difficult to
handle, and South Africa entered the crisis from a weak fiscal and economic
position, S&P said.
The National Treasury said in a statement late on Wednesday that the
government was disappointed by S&Ps decision to downgrade South Africas
sovereign rating at a time when the country was facing one of its most
challenging times.
Now, more than ever, structural reforms need to be urgently implemented in
order to get the economy moving in the right direction, the statement read.
Tough decisions have to be made.
South Africas local-currency debt was set to be ejected from the benchmark
World Government Bond Index on Thursday night, after Moodys stripped the
country of its last investment grade credit rating in March.
Botswana cuts rates, capital ratios for commercial banks in coronavirus
response
GABORONE (Reuters) - Botswanas central bank on Thursday slashed the
benchmark policy rate by 50 basis points to 4.25% in a raft of interventions
aimed at cushioning the economic impact of the coronavirus by easing of
borrowing costs across the board.
The banks monetary policy committee also announced a drop in the prudential
capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks, to 12.5% from 15%.
The reduction of primary reserve requirements will free up 1.6 billion pula
which will be used by banks to finance economic activity, Bank of Botswana
Governor Moses Pelaelo said.
Visa gives Kenya's Safaricom 'missing link' for global payments
NAIROBI (Reuters) - Visa and Safaricom have agreed a deal which will connect
the Kenyan telecom operators M-Pesa financial services platform with Visas
global network of merchants and cards.
Under the deal, which requires regulatory approval, announced on Thursday by
both companies, M-Pesas 24 million users and 173,000 local merchants will
be linked to Visas 61 million merchants and its more than 3 billion cards.
This has been the missing link to integrate M-Pesa into the global payments
system, said a source at Safaricom, which is Kenyas biggest telecoms
operator and is part-owned by South Africas Vodacom and Britains Vodafone.
The mobile phone-based M-Pesa will serve as a virtual card, allowing users
to make payments abroad when they travel and also letting them transfer cash
from their Visa-linked debit cards to their M-Pesa wallet even when they are
abroad, the source said.
Peter Ndegwa, Safaricoms CEO, said in a joint statement that the deal with
will facilitate global electronic commerce, while Andrew Torre, President of
Visa Central Europe, Middle East and Africa, said it was committed to
creating new and improved payments experiences.
Safaricom and M-Pesa have already ... put Kenya on the map as a global
leader in mobile money, Torre said.
There have been attempts by governments to encourage use of cashless
payments to enhance security, while more recently they have been promoted as
a way of slowing the spread of the coronavirus through bank notes.
M-Pesa, which was started by Safaricom in 2007, allows users to transfer
cash, make payments for goods and services, as well as save and borrow
through partnerships with local lenders.
Previous attempts to integrate it with the global payments system include a
2018 deal with Western Union, which allows M-Pesa users to send money around
the world.
International money transfers, which also include PayPal and Alipay, were
one of the fastest growing segments for M-Pesa revenue last year, although
it remains quite small, Safaricom said on Wednesday.
China Moly shrugs off South Africa port disruption as DRC cobalt sales rise
BEIJING (Reuters) - China Molybdenum Co is sending more copper and cobalt
from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to ports in Tanzania, Namibia
and Mozambique, a spokesman said on Thursday, as it weathers coronavirus
disruption at South African outlets.
South Africa implemented a COVID-19 lockdown on March 27, under which ports
handle only essential goods with reduced staff, leaving minerals mined
across southern and central Africa without a key route to international
markets.
China Moly, which operates the Tenke Fungurume copper-cobalt mine in the
DRC, previously sent around 25% of its output via South Africa ports but was
able to make other arrangements once restrictions were announced, the
company spokesman said.
Around half its DRC copper and cobalt is going through Dar es Salaam in
Tanzania on the Indian Ocean, while China Moly is also making use of Walvis
Bay in Namibia on the Atlantic as well as several small ports in Mozambique.
Its sales of cobalt hydroxide, used to make batteries for electric vehicles,
were up 49.3% year-on-year to 5,334 tonnes in the first quarter, a filing
late on Wednesday showed.
That led to a draw on inventory as sales by far exceeded output of 3,244
tonnes, which was down 32.4% year-on-year and lagged annual guidance of
14,000-17,000 tonnes for 2020.
Output of copper from Tenke Fungurume, one of the worlds largest
copper-cobalt deposits, which was placed in isolation last month due to
coronavirus containment measures, was up 5.4% at 42,694 tonnes in the first
quarter.
A strategy of high copper, low cobalt was adopted for the first half of the
year for pricing reasons but cobalt sales were better than expected, the
spokesman said, adding that the plan for the second half would be adjusted
based on market conditions.
Cobalt prices started the year at around $33,000 a tonne but have since
declined more than 8%, while copper hit a four-year low last month as
investors feared the pandemic would hit demand.
Amazon investors told to 'take a seat' as demand jumps
Amazon sales surged in the first three months of the year, as the
coronavirus lockdown boosted demand for the firm's groceries, online
marketplace and cloud computing services.
Sales in the quarter jumped 26% year-on-year and the firm said they could
rise another 28% in the next.
But the demand has strained the internet giant.
It said it would spend roughly $4bn (£3.2bn) on coronavirus measures through
June.
Those costs reflect increased worker pay, purchases of masks and other
protective gear, expenses related to cleaning and less efficient warehouses,
as the firm implements social distancing measures.
"The current crisis is demonstrating the adaptability and durability of
Amazon's business as never before, but it's also the hardest time we've ever
faced," said Amazon boss Jeff Bezos.
"If you're a shareowner in Amazon, you may want to take a seat because we're
not thinking small," he said.
"I'm confident that our long term-oriented shareowners will understand and
embrace our approach."
Amazon, with its dominance in e-commerce, video streaming and cloud
computing services, plus its acquisition of the Whole Foods supermarket
chain, is well poised to benefit from the changes to consumer habits forced
by the pandemic.
The online giant reported gains across the company. The e-commerce business
rose 24%, while sales at its cloud computing division, Amazon Web Services -
a significant profit driver - jumped 33%. Even its advertising unit fared
well. And at Whole Foods, which Amazon purchased in 2017, sales climbed
about 8%.
That performance presents a sharp contrast to many other companies, which
are reeling amid forced closures and plunging consumer spending as
economists forecast the world's sharpest slowdown since the 1930s.
"It shouldn't come as a shock to anyone," said Forrester Research retail
analyst Sucharita Kodali. "A lot of physical stores around the world were
closed and that drives a lot of people online and they are a huge
beneficiary of online."
>From a customer perspective, Ms Kodali said Amazon's performance has been
somewhat lacking, with slower shipping times and many items out of stock.
Its brand has also taken a beating, as workers around the world complain of
inadequate safety precautions.
Despite those issues, Ms Kodali said she expected the firm to maintain its
advantage over the long term, as rivals suffering losses due to closures are
prevented from making investments that would help them compete.
"All signs point toward Amazon continuing to win - not because of anything
that Amazon has done, but because of what the others can't do," she said.
Increased costs
Amazon has scrambled to adjust its operations in reaction to the coronavirus
risks. The company has hired 175,000 people in its fulfilment and delivery
network and nearly doubled the Whole Foods stores that offer pick-up
services.
On Thursday, the firm said it had purchased 100 million face masks and
31,000 thermometers, which it is using for daily temperature checks.
But the firm's expenses have shot up, with shipping costs alone surging 49%
to nearly $11bn.
This weighed on the firm's profits, which fell 29% from a year earlier to
$2.5bn, lower than analysts had expected.
Shares, which have surged more than 30% this year, slumped in after-hours
trade.
But the firm will be able to benefit long term from shifts happening now,
like increased online grocery shopping, said Andrew Lipsman, principal
analyst at eMarketer,
"It would be very short-term thinking to just look at what happens in this
quarter alone," he said.
Despite economic weakness, Amazon's sales are relatively "immunised" from
declines for now, he added.
"If we come out of this in a deep recession and people can get back to
normal in terms of bricks and mortar buying, then that's when Amazon like
everyone else, will take a hit," he said.--BBC
Apple boosted by streaming services despite lockdown
Apple saw growth for the first three months of the year, as falling device
sales in China were offset by demand for its streaming services due to the
coronavirus lockdown.
Sales climbed to $58.3bn (£46.2bn), up from $58bn in the same period in 2019
and beating expectations of $54.5bn.
Apple boss Tim Cook said the firm saw a "record for streaming" and
"phenomenal" growth in the online store.
He added that "China is headed in the right direction".
Despite the coronavirus lockdown hurting iPhone supply due to Chinese
factories closing, and a drop in demand for devices in China - a major
market for Apple - during February and March, Mr Cook told investors in an
earnings call on Thursday: "I don't think I can remember a quarter where
I've been prouder of Apple."
Apple said iPhone sales for the quarter fell 7.2% to $28.9bn, compared to
$31bn in the previous year.
However, its wearables, home and accessories division - which produces the
Apple Watch and AirPods - rose 22.5% to $6.3bn, while services - such as
subscriptions to Apple Music and Apple TV - jumped 16.6% to $13.3bn
like-for-like.
Although business in China has not fully rebounded, Apple said all of its
stores in the country had reopened by mid-March and sales were improving.
Net income for the six months ending 28 March 2020 rose 6.2% to $33.5bn, up
from $25.9bn in the same period in 2019.
Mr Cook said Apple was in a strong position and that its supply chain was
"robust" and "back up and running at full-throttle at the end of March".
"While we can't say for certain how many chapters are in this book, we can
be assured that the ending will be a good one," he told investors.
Apple said it would not be issuing forecasts for the following quarter,
given the ongoing uncertainties of the lockdown, which has seen its sales
move online or to curb-side pick-ups.
Research firm eMarketer's principal analyst Yoram Wurmser said Apple's
performance was "pretty solid".
"Growth of 1% in this environment is impressive, particularly given some of
the extent of Apple's exposure to the earlier lockdowns in Asia," said Mr
Wurmser.
"The biggest bright spot for Apple was services, which grew 17%
year-over-year. As people spent more time on their phones while locked away
at home, they clearly were spending more money in the App Store and on some
of the subscription services offered by Apple, including Apple Music and
Arcade."
According to Sophie Lund-Yates, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, the
rise in demand for wearables and services is an encouraging one for Apple,
given recent lacklustre iPhone sales growth.
"Despite plenty of talk around services, Apple is still very much a hardware
business. And even before coronavirus, conditions weren't perfect," she
said.
Ms Lund-Yates added that Apple's decision to price the new iPhone SE at half
the cost of some of Apple's most recent models is a good way to convince
customers to upgrade during the lockdown.--BBC
How the government plans to get the UK back to work
The government will release a series of papers next week outlining its
approach on how to safely and gradually restart the economy.
It invited submissions by Thursday from businesses, trade bodies, unions and
other workers representatives on how best to slowly restart the UK economy.
It's thought the proposals will not be split bluntly by sector but by
working environment.
But there is no confirmed date yet for when such a restart will occur.
Unions, large firms and business groups have been consulted on seven areas:
· Outdoor work - including agriculture, construction and energy
· Non-food retail - high street
· Transport and logistics
· Manufacturing - including food processing and engineering
· Indoor work - offices, laboratories, call centres
· Work in the home - plumbers, painters and decorators, carers
· Hospitality and leisure - pubs clubs restaurants cinemas theatres
The position papers are expected to comprise a set of broad guidelines based
on these discussions, which will not be too prescriptive as to be
inflexible, and given it would be impossible to examine individual premises,
it's thought companies will be allowed to self-certify they are in
compliance with the guidelines.
The government wants to involve unions and the Health and Safety executive
to endorse the plans and to both get buy-in from workers, and provide a
channel for any worker concerns at the new arrangements.
Guidelines for reopening businesses
The principles may not necessarily insist that workers strictly observe a
two-metre social distancing rule.
In situations where workers may be required to be closer than two metres,
the guidelines may insist on mitigating measures such as wearing protective
masks or clothing, or where possible work back-to-back, rather than
face-to-face.
Union sources say these are very early principles and would not, on their
own, create a satisfactory basis for a return to work. They have said much
more detailed technical work will be required.
There are some sectors which the government has acknowledged will be unable
to function at any significant level for many weeks and possibly weeks to
come, in particular hospitality and leisure.
Simon Emeny, the boss of Fullers, which operates 400 pubs and restaurants,
has told the BBC that reopening under social distancing rules would be worse
than staying closed.
"Think of the practical problems of going to the loo, being served at the
bar, a plate of food at your table. Also few people would want to come," he
said.
"It would mean our revenue would be down by as much as 80%, but our costs
would go up, so it's actually more catastrophic to open under socially
distant guidelines than it is being closed down."
That means there will be some very serious questions for the Treasury, on
how long it is willing or able to continue to pay millions of furloughed
workers wages, under a job retention scheme that some estimate is currently
costing up to a billion pounds a day.
There is also the question of how much demand there will be for the products
and services the reopened businesses will produce and provide. Car factories
and showrooms may reopen - but how many people are in the mood for a big
ticket purchase like that right now.
Industry bodies accept that returning to work will be a difficult and
delicate exercise - both operationally for business and emotionally for many
workers.
Union leaders have told the BBC there are isolated incidents in which some
of their members who have already returned to work have been subjected to
abuse from people in their own community, fearful workers could be bringing
the virus back with them from their places of work.
The government has paid tribute to the public for largely adhering to a
simple and often repeated message: "stay at home, protect the NHS, save
lives". It has very effectively drummed in a mindset of risk aversion.
That messaging may prove hard to "refine", as the government has put it.
Closing the gates and furloughing millions of workers was a huge, but widely
considered necessary government intervention into the private sector.
Opening the gates again may prove to be one of the most complex challenges
this virus has thrown at us yet.--BBC
Debt warning over car finance payment holidays
Debt charities have warned families could "face real hardship" over delays
in agreeing coronavirus-related car finance payment holidays.
Last week, the industry regulator instructed lenders to offer payment
holidays to customers who need them.
But BBC Radio 5 Live has found that customers of some car finance providers
still haven't been granted breaks, despite asking for the last six weeks.
However the industry body for lenders say they are doing everything they
can.
In 2019, consumers borrowed £38bn to finance cars.
Tamara Ellison, from Suffolk, had only just started a new job at a graphic
design agency when the company placed her on furlough in March.
But because the 48-year-old had only just started with the firm, she wasn't
eligible for the government's Job Retention Scheme, which covers 80% of
people's wages up to a cap of £2,500.
Tamara, whose income also supports her husband and 13-year-old son, has
spent the last six weeks trying to agree a pay holiday with Volkswagen
Financial Services (VFS), on her Volkswagen T-Roc, without success. She pays
£302 a month in car payments.
Earlier this week, she told the BBC: "The car finance is my biggest outgoing
and if they take another month's payment, the sacrifice will have to be food
and utilities. I have got payment holidays on some utilities, but not all of
them.
"It's so frustrating because I flagged this to them on 19 March - it's not
for the want of trying."
Coronavirus: Freeze on pawn, payday and car loan payments
'Car payments are ruining our lives'
Coronavirus: Furloughed workers urged to become fruit pickers
After the BBC contacted VFS this week, Tamara's payment holiday was
approved, but she says the process has been a "nightmare".
'I can ill afford the next payment'
David Needham, 63, a salesman from West Sussex, had just signed a finance
deal for a new Audi A6 on 2 March that costs £635 per month.
But just 11 days later, the grandfather-of-two was furloughed. He has also
been trying to secure a payment holiday with VFS since 19 March, with no
success.
"When you factor in the insurance around one third of my furlough income is
now going on my car and I've still got bills to pay," Mr Needham told the
BBC.
"I travel a lot for work and have an allowance for my car. An awful lot of
salespeople will be in the same position as me - they'll have got a new car
at the start of the financial year which they can no longer afford.
"I can ill afford to make the next payment, but if I don't, I will fall into
arrears and I'm worried that will mean I then don't qualify for the payment
holiday."
On Friday 24 April, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) - the City
regulator - finalised its package of measures, which set out how motor
finance customers should be supported through the lockdown.
It said lenders should provide a three month payment freeze to people who
are experiencing temporary difficulties meeting finance payments.
Many lenders, however, didn't wait for the guidance to be issued before
starting to offer payment holidays.
According to the Finance and Leasing Association (FLA), in the six weeks to
17 April, lenders received around 425,000 forbearance requests and granted
312,000 - including payment holidays, payment reductions, waived interest or
extending the term of an agreement.
However, VFS said it only started offering payment holidays on Monday 27
April, after the regulator's guidance was finalised.
But it says it did already have other support measures in place which
customers could access.
VFS said it offers a range of options for customers in financial difficulty,
the most recent being the option to apply for a three-month payment
deferral.
It said it had seen "significant requests for this option", but for some
people a payment deferral wouldn't be the right outcome, in which case the
firm offers "a range of options and we work with the customer to find the
best solution".
VFS' spokesman added: "Since the start of the lockdown, we have prioritised
the needs of our customers at the same time as adjusting the way we work, in
order to keep our colleagues safe and well.
"This means that we are doing things a bit differently and we may take
longer than normal getting back to customers. The best way to get in touch
is by using our online services and we would recommend contact by phone only
if online is not available."
'Real hardship'
Peter Tutton, head of policy at debt support charity StepChange said: "While
the FCA has taken welcome and unprecedented action to help those affected by
the current crisis, it's clear there are still people in danger of
experiencing real hardship, as a result of problems with their car financing
contracts.
"We would urge firms to do all they can to anticipate this and to treat
their clients as fairly as possible in the coming months."
He added that lenders could stop people from falling into problem debt by
holding off "treating non-payments as defaults and by offering appropriate
forbearance to those who need it".
Stuart Carmichael, chief executive of the Debt Support Trust, says a delay
in agreeing payment holidays would be a huge concern for any driver during
this time of "unprecedented financial uncertainty".
But he warned it would be a particular concern for customers who already had
pre-existing arrears, because the new guidelines say lenders do not have to
offer them a coronavirus payment holiday.
Instead, customers who have already missed payments may have to rely on
existing provision for people who get into financial difficulty.
"It is these people we worry about most," he told the BBC.
"You could have lost your job and missed a couple of payments historically,
but have got back on track with a new job and an agreed plan to make up the
arrears - and now you've been furloughed and you're stuck. It doesn't seem
fair."
A spokeswoman for the FLA said that where requests had not yet been dealt
with, it might be because the lender was waiting for a response from the
customer, or the customer could be waiting in a queue, due to the high
volumes of requests.
She added: "If a customer is nearing a payment date and still has not heard
from their lender, then please get in touch with them again."--BBC
INVESTORS DIARY 2020
Company
Event
Venue
Date & Time
Companies under Cautionary
Bindura Nickel Corporation
Padenga Holdings
Delta Corporation
Meikles Limited
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