Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 25 October 2022

Tue Oct 25 10:41:52 CAT 2022

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Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 25 October 2022 

 <https://wwww.nedbank.co.zw/> 

ü  China shares slide in US as Xi starts historic third term

ü  US charges alleged Chinese spies in telecoms probe case

ü  India GST: The ‘cheesy’ row over pizza toppings tax in India

ü  Inflation: Why Canada grocers are accused of 'greedflation'

ü  Rishi Sunak: The most urgent problems facing the new prime minister

ü  The ships full of gas waiting off Europe’s coast

ü  Competition regulator needs teeth to curb big tech, MPs say

ü  UK doomed without Brexit rethink, warns City boss

ü  First-time buyers hit by drop in mortgage deals

ü  Supermarket plan 'was ditched after social media campaign'

ü  Nigeria Ranks 103rd Among 121 Countries Facing Hunger Crisis - AfDB

ü  Nigeria: One-Third of Global Economy in Recession - Emefiele

ü  Nigeria: MTN to Invest N65m in Nigerian Startups Via Grants

ü  Nigeria: Tax Evasion - 5 Weeks After Closure, First Bank Reopens for Business

ü  Nigeria Eurobonds Overcome Moody's Negative Watch Downgrade, Riding On Angola

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

China shares slide in US as Xi starts historic third term

Shares of Chinese firms listed in the US have slumped on concerns that President Xi Jinping will continue with his ideology-driven approach at the cost of economic growth.

Chinese technology giants Alibaba and Baidu fell by over 12% in New York.

Investors fear the world's second largest economy will be held back by its tough coronavirus restrictions.

One analyst said Beijing was in a "tug-of-war" between measures to boost growth and its zero-Covid policies.

On Monday, shares in technology giant Alibaba closed 12.5% lower on the New York Stock Exchange, after hitting a 52-week low earlier in the day.

Internet company Baidu lost 12.6%, while e-commerce platform Pinduoduo plunged by almost 25%.

It comes after China's ruling Communist Party wrapped up its twice-a-decade congress on Sunday.

During the week-long event President Xi, who secured a historic third term in charge, offered no timeline for the easing of the country's strict measures to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

The zero Covid policies have seen some of China's biggest cities being put into lockdown, including the financial, manufacturing and shipping hub of Shanghai.

China's economy is facing "policy stimulus and multiple growth headwinds including Covid restrictions, a property market downturn and slowing exports," Minyue Liu from BNP Paribas Asset Management told the BBC.

"We expect the [Chinese] government to face continued domestic pressure on its zero-Covid policy," she said.

Although official figures published on Monday showed that the economy grew at a better-than-expected rate between July and September, "there were still signs of stress as consumption has remained weak due to ongoing Covid-19 flare ups and property weakness," Erin Xin, Greater China economist at HSBC said in a note to investors.

"With the lack of clarity, people are assuming the direction that we have seen would be even stronger. That's what led to the selling and the worsening expectations of the Chinese economy moving forward," Trinh Nguyen, senior economist at Natixis told the BBC.

On Tuesday, stock markets in Hong Kong and mainland China edged a little lower after sliding the previous day.

Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng index lost more than 6% on Monday, while the the Shanghai Composite closed 2% lower.-BBC

US charges alleged Chinese spies in telecoms probe case

Two Chinese nationals have been charged with paying thousands of dollars in cash and jewellery to obstruct a federal investigation into a major telecommunications company.

According to prosecutors, the two men attempted to recruit a US law enforcement official as an intelligence asset to help interfere with the probe.

The official, however, was working as a double agent for the FBI.

Eleven other Chinese citizens were also charged in two other spying cases.

According to charging documents, the two men - identified as Gouchun He and Zheng Wang - attempted to cultivate a relationship with a US law enforcement official and sought details of the investigation, including witnesses, evidence and potential criminal charges. They also asked the official to secretly record trial strategy meetings.

While the company was not named in the documents or by Attorney General Merrick Garland at a news conference on Monday, US media has reported it to be China-headquartered tech giant Huawei, citing sources familiar with the investigation. US officials declined to identify the company.

"This was an egregious attempt by PRC (People's Republic of China) intelligence officers to shield a PRC based company from accountability and to undermine the integrity of our judicial system," Mr Garland said,

The two alleged spies paid the official tens of thousands of dollars in cash and jewellery, including $41,000 in Bitcoin for a photograph of a single page - marked "classified" - that purported to discuss a plan to charge and arrest company officials. Additional payments were made as recently as last week.

Unknown to the alleged spies, the US official was working on behalf of the FBI and passed along fake documents, Mr Garland told reporters.

Americans in the crosshairs of China's spy game

In a separate case in New Jersey, four people - including three alleged intelligence operatives - were charged with using a fake think tank to recruit current and former US officials. According to Mr Garland, the suspects hoped to procure technology and have it shipped to China, as well as interfere with US protests that could be "embarrassing".

Additionally, seven Chinese nationals were charged with attempting to force a naturalised US citizen to return to China, part of what US officials described as part of a transnational effort to recover fugitives and silence dissidents and perceived opponents of the Chinese government. Two of those suspects are in custody.

According to Mr Garland, the Chinese government forced the victim's nephew to travel from China to convey threats, told him that "coming back and turning herself in is the only way out", and sent agents to the home of the victim's son.

"They made clear that their harassment would not stop until the victim returned to China," Mr Garland said.

Prosecutors had filed similar charges against alleged Chinese spies last year, accusing them of attempting to exert influence over US citizens and residents.

In late 2021 and early 2022, for example, US officials believe an affiliate of China's Ministry of State Security (MSS) hired a US-based private investigator to uncover "unflattering information" about a US congressional candidate who had participated in pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong in 2015, as well as at least one state-level legislator who they believed may run for re-election.-BBC

India GST: The ‘cheesy’ row over pizza toppings tax in India

It can be a challenge to get the right mix of toppings that makes a pizza delicious. An overload of toppings could make the dough soggy and a wrong mix can affect the flavour.

But in August, an Indian firm making pizza toppings mounted a different challenge in a court.

It was not about the taste of the toppings. It was a dispute over the rate of Goods and Services Tax (GST) that they attracted.

Since it was introduced five years ago, the nationwide uniform levy has helped boost India's taxes: the GST is now generating more than $17bn (£15bn) a month for the world's fifth largest economy.

Why India's GST is one of the world's most complex tax reforms

In court, the Khera Trading Company argued that their mozzarella topping should be classified as cheese, which attracts a lower GST of 12%. After all, cheese and milk solids made up more than a third of the toppings, it said.

But a court in Haryana state disagreed. It said the cheese in the topping could not be truly classified as cheese alone.

The toppings, it said, contained vegetable oil - 22% of the ingredients, to be precise. The firm said the oil helped with the texture, added flavour to the pizza and was cheap as well.

A shopkeeper showing new updated GST bill outside the store at Connaught place on July 1, 2017 in New Delhi, 

The court said vegetable fat was not an ingredient of cheese. That would disqualify the toppings to be counted as cheese - instead, it would be called an "edible preparation" and taxed at a higher 18%. The firm lost its case.

Such courtroom battles lead tax experts to believe that India's ground-breaking GST - which replaced a thicket of local taxes across 29 states - is too convoluted. With five different rates - 5%, 12%, 18% and 28% and zero for unpacked food - the tax on nearly 2,000 goods and services has become too cumbersome, they say. (Petrol, diesel, electricity and real estate are exempt from GST).

"This has led to confusion on the categorisation of a product or service based upon specified codes along with their rates. There has been a plethora of [court] rulings since the inception of GST," says Anita Rastogi, partner, GST and indirect taxes, at PricewaterhouseCoopers, a consulting firm.

The tax especially seems to have tied itself in knots when it comes to India's food industry.

In September, a court ruled on a 20-month-long case over the paratha, a crisp, flaky pan-fried flatbread which attracts a GST of 18% as opposed to roti, a basic round flatbread which is taxed at 5%.

A Gujarat-based firm, Vadilal Industries, went to the court in June last year questioning why their packed frozen parathas - it made eight different types, some stuffed with cooked vegetables - should be taxed differently from rotis, a subcontinental staple. After all, the key ingredient in both was wheat flour.

The court said no. The judge agreed that packed parathas mainly contained wheat flour but - here comes the catch - also had "other ingredients" such as water, vegetable oil, salt, vegetables and radish. Rejecting the plea the court said: "The parathas supplied by the appellant are different from roti."

There are more of such head-scratching verdicts, as many term them. A court decided that ice creams sold by parlours would attract a higher (18%) tax than ice cream sold in restaurants since they sell "already manufactured ice cream and do not cook/prepare ice cream for consumption like a restaurant". The parlours sell ice cream as a "good and not as a service, even if the supply has certain ingredients of a service".

Then there was a case in Gujarat involving a maker of 'fryums' - an Indian snack food made of potato starch and sago - who wanted his product to be exempt from GST like papadams, thin, round pancake snacks. But the court noted that fryums were ready-to-eat when sold, while papadams had to be cooked. "Both the products are different and have their individual identity," the judge said. The 'fryums' continue to attract a 18% tax.

A flavoured milk maker went to court challenging the 12% tax on his drink when ordinary milk enjoyed a tax exemption. The firm said its product comprised "92% milk, and only 8% sugar". But the court said flavoured milk was not covered under the "definition of milk" in the laws and therefore was not exempt from the tax. And then there was a dispute over whether ready-to-cook dosa (a popular breakfast food) and idli (a steamed rice cake) should attract a higher tax than the batter used to make them.

Tax experts believe one way to get around this would be to simplify and collapse the different rates into one reduced rate. (80% of the countries which introduced the GST after 1995 have opted for a single rate.)

Economists Vijay Kelkar and Ajay Shah say that "various pressure groups [in India] lobby for higher or lower taxes on one industry or another, and this distorts the resource allocation of the economy". With the government being a major buyer of goods and services, a low single-rate GST would "yield cost savings for all levels of government", they believe.

A low single rate is likely to eliminate classification disputes, reduce incentives for evasion and bring down compliance costs .

"The moment you conflate or reduce the rates, classification disputes will reduce. But in a country like India with high income disparities, a single or even a dual rate structure risks imposing a larger tax burden on the poor," says Uday Pimprikar, partner, indirect tax services, India, at global accounting and consultancy firm EY.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi had once described the GST as a "good and simple tax". Clearly, it hasn't entirely turned out that way.-BBC

Inflation: Why Canada grocers are accused of 'greedflation'

Like many around the world, Canadians are struggling with the cost of food. But amid accusations of "greedflation" - taking advantage of inflation to raise prices - the country's largest grocery chains say they aren't to blame.

With food prices mounting, Canadian grocery store giant Loblaw made a promise: the cost of products under its lower-cost in-house brand, No Name, will remain frozen for three months.

The offer, announced in a promotional email by Loblaw CEO Galen Weston on 17 October, wasn't well-received. Some labelled it a PR stunt, while others declared it too little, too late.

The sour reaction isn't without reason. Inflation has slowed in recent months, but the cost of food is still soaring with increases reaching a 41-year high.

At the same time, large corporations - including grocers - are reporting record earnings. Loblaw's first-quarter profit this year was up nearly 40% from that of last year, and its net earnings after adjustments were up 17%.

In Canada, where distrust in grocery magnates runs deep from a recent bread price-fixing scandal, this dilemma has turned political.

Members of parliament have accused grocery chains of taking advantage of inflation to raise prices more than needed - a phenomenon dubbed by some "greedflation".

On the same day Mr Weston's letter was sent, Canada's parliament unanimously passed a motion that accused grocery CEOs of "corporate greed". On Monday, the federal competition watchdog launched an investigation into the sector.

But is there any truth to the idea of greedflation? Economists say it's complicated.

'No safe space … not even the freezer aisle'

For families who frequent grocery stores, the drastic increase in prices is hard to ignore. Canada's food prices in September were up 11.4% compared to 6.9% overall inflation.

"There's no safe space for consumers at the grocery store, not even the freezer aisle," said Sylvain Charlebois, a professor at Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia who has been publishing an annual report on Canadian food prices since 2010.

The problem isn't unique to Canada. The UK has seen a drastic rise in food prices as well - bread and cereals were up by an annual 12.4% in July, and oils and fats were up 23.4%.

So has the US, where the cost of food was up 13.5% in September compared to last year.

In all three countries, the factors driving up the cost of food are similar: a surge in demand for groceries since the start of the pandemic, coupled with Covid-19 outbreaks, has disrupted supply. Add to that the war in Ukraine, which has affected supplies of fertiliser, wheat and other crops, sending global prices soaring.

Bad weather this year has also disrupted the growth of certain crops, and fuel has gotten more expensive.

Grocers say they want to help

As shoppers grow more frustrated, grocery companies around the world have moved to freeze prices in a show of solidarity.

In May, US company Weis Markets announced a multi-million dollar campaign to cut prices on its best-selling frozen products. France's Carrefour froze the price on 100 everyday products in August, and the UK's Asda and Morrisons both cut prices in April.

But when Canada's Loblaw froze prices months later in October, it felt too late.

"Frankly, they have done nothing for a long time," said David MacDonald, an economist with the left-leaning Canadian Center for Policy Alternatives.

He added the prices of goods that the grocer froze had already gone up from earlier this year. No Name chicken wings, for example, were C$11.99 ($8.75; £7.75). Now they are $13.99.

Loblaw CEO Mr Weston has said the price increases at his stores are "maddeningly" out of his company's control. Some, like Canadian member of parliament Alistair MacGregor, disagree.

The announcement, the left-leaning New Democrat said, "demonstrates the fact that the CEO of Loblaw always had it within his power to freeze prices".

He also criticised the company for making the announcement the same day parliament was set to vote on probing the profits of grocery retailers, calling it a "PR attempt to deflect from the negative attention".

With grocers reporting an increase in profits, Mr MacGregor said there's likely "a moral call there for companies to reform their business practices" to curb inflation and help struggling families.

In dollars, grocers have made an average of $1.5bn in the first two quarters of 2022, up from $800m in 2019. Their margins are also higher than pre-pandemic - 3.5% in 2022, up from 2% in 2018, despite the increase in production costs.

Grocers have attributed the higher margins to an increase in sales and efficiency.

Meanwhile, an August poll suggested that more than half of Canadians can't keep up with the current cost of living, and 78% believe grocers are to blame for soaring food prices.

Are grocery stores to blame?

It was only a few years ago, Mr Charlebois recalled, that Loblaws was exposed for its role in a bread price-fixing scandal that saw major retailers conspiring with commercial bakeries to set higher prices over 14 years.

For its role in the scandal, Loblaws offered shoppers $25 gift cards as an olive branch.

"It really bothered a lot of Canadians at the time," Mr Charlebois said.

But after researching recent earnings reports of both American and Canadian grocery giants, Mr Charlebois said he isn't certain the blame for rising costs should entirely lie on retailers.

He found that while revenues did go up, gross margins for companies have increased by what he said are modest amounts.

"Yes, they've actually posted record profits in dollars," Mr Charlebois said. "But when you look at margins, they're relatively similar."

He cautioned that this doesn't rule out wrongdoing in other parts of the supply chain - from food processing to transportation.

In Quebec, meat packers in particular are under fire for allegedly conspiring to raise prices on beef sold in the province. One of the companies in question, JBS, already settled a similar lawsuit earlier this year in the US.

Some suppliers, however, have accused grocery retailers of not accepting price increases and imposing additional fines on them - a problem they say should be fixed by implementing an industry-wide code of conduct in Canada.

That is why many welcome the decision by parliament's agriculture committee and the competition bureau to look at the grocery retail market - probes that politicians like Mr MacGregor hope will pave the way for better industry practices in the future.

"It's a good thing for Canadians", who at the very least will get some clarity on how their food is priced, said Mr Charlebois.-BBC

Rishi Sunak: The most urgent problems facing the new prime minister

Rishi Sunak has become the UK's new prime minister, replacing Liz Truss. He inherits a number of challenges from his predecessor, as BBC correspondents explain.

Rishi Sunak enters No 10 having made very few promises in his leadership campaign, but as chancellor he warned about the danger of rapidly rising prices.

A key challenge for him will be what to do with the Energy Price Guarantee - the subsidy scheme to help homes and businesses cope with higher gas and electricity bills. Under Liz Truss, the scheme was set to last for two years. New Chancellor Jeremy Hunt then announced that the guarantee would only last until April.

We know Mr Sunak was also cautious about offering the scheme beyond that point. But a typical household energy bill - now £2,500 - could rise to more than £4,000 next spring, sending inflation rocketing.

Meanwhile, Mr Sunak had guaranteed that benefits, tax credits and pensions would rise in line with the recent inflation rate of 10.1%. But with a huge borrowing gap of £30-40bn, it is not clear whether that promise still holds.

At the moment, the financial markets trust Mr Sunak, which makes the economic repair job he has to do easier. Markets have sent government borrowing costs lower and this in turn could lead to more favourable mortgage rates. It could also mean we see the Bank of England raise interest rates by a smaller amount.

With record numbers waiting for hospital treatment and the threat of strikes over pay and winter just around the corner, Mr Sunak will be firefighting from day one. Any attempts to introduce his own policies and vision are likely to have to wait.

During the summer, Mr Sunak spoke on several occasions about waste and bureaucracy, floating the idea of a vaccine-style taskforce to improve efficiency, and charging patients £10 for missed appointments.

There is scepticism within the health service about the merits of these ideas, but they suggest he will take a tough line in terms of savings - perhaps not cutting the budget, but asking the service to do more with the same amount - and try to get on top of the backlog faster than has been timetabled for so far.

Key to this will be tackling delayed discharges - the patients who are ready to leave hospital but cannot because of a lack of care available in the community. The fact Mr Sunak was willing to raise National Insurance contributions - a move now scrapped - to help increase investment in the NHS points to this being an immediate area of focus.

Tens of thousands of workers have already downed tools this year, among them train drivers, dock workers, mail employees, criminal barristers and telecoms staff. University lecturers have just voted for strike action, while nurses, junior doctors and teachers are among those considering strikes.

Why is everyone going on strike?

Although most disputes involve a range of issues, the common factor has been pay. Price rises are pushing up the cost of living, and wages have not been keeping up.

So unions are flexing their muscles to demand more money for their members. But if companies pay their workers more, they may have to charge higher prices for what they produce or sell - meaning higher prices for everyone.

A government already struggling to balance its books is unlikely to want to pay public sector workers much more either. But the new prime minister will be desperate to avoid the current bout of industrial unrest gathering momentum.

Legislation to limit the impact of transport strikes is already on the table. But it is likely the priority will be to solve the problem at source - and that means controlling inflation.

UK policy towards Ukraine will not change under Mr Sunak. While standing for the leadership in the summer, he said he would maintain Britain's backing and make an early visit to Kyiv. "If I become prime minister, I will redouble our efforts and reinforce our policy of total support for Ukraine that Boris has so ably led," he said.

But continuing to give Ukraine military support in the long term will cost money, and there is uncertainty over Mr Sunak's approach to defence spending.

Ms Truss promised to increase defence spending from 2% to 3% of national wealth - measured by gross domestic product - by 2030. But Mr Sunak has said that target was "arbitrary" and "not a plan".

He may also have to face the challenge of supporting Ukraine when doing so becomes less popular politically. With rising energy costs exacerbating the cost-of-living crisis, Mr Sunak may have to persuade voters their financial discomfort is a price worth paying to defend Ukraine.

Rishi Sunak faces the same problematic Northern Ireland in-tray which awaited Ms Truss in September.

There is still no Northern Ireland Executive, and the legislative assembly cannot function. Talks continue on the Northern Ireland Protocol, but, as yet, there is no resolution which would satisfy the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).

A simple guide to the Northern Ireland Protocol

It has blocked normal government in Belfast in its protest against the protocol, meaning a key deadline looms large. Unless the DUP drops its demands or emergency legislation is rushed through by 28 October, then the second election of 2022 must be called, for just before Christmas.

During hustings in Belfast in August, Mr Sunak pledged to progress a bill to override much of the protocol, but his preference would be a negotiated compromise.

Without imminent progress, Stormont's power will shift from local ministers to the secretary of state and civil servants within days. Festive cheer could be in short supply unless someone blinks.-BBC

The ships full of gas waiting off Europe’s coast

The behemoths are waiting. Off the coasts of Spain, Portugal, the UK and other European nations lie dozens of giant ships packed full of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Cooled to roughly -160C for transportation, the fossil fuel is in very high demand. Yet the ships remain at sea with their prized cargo.

After invading Ukraine in February, Russia curtailed gas supplies to Europe, sparking an energy crisis that sent the price of gas soaring. That led to fears of energy shortages and eye-watering bills for consumers.

"It's built up for about, I would say, five to six weeks," says Augustin Prate, vice president of energy and commodity markets at Kayrros, one of many observers who has watched the situation unfold.

He and colleagues track ships via AIS (Automatic Identification System) signals, which are broadcast by vessels to receivers, including on satellites.

"Clearly it's a big story," he says.

So why are ships loaded with LNG just hanging around Europe, exactly? The answer, as you might have guessed, is a little complicated.

Someone else who has watched the accumulation of vessels is Fraser Carson, a research analyst at Wood Mackenzie. This month, he counted 268 LNG ships on the water worldwide - noticeably above the one-year average of 241. Of those currently at sea, 51 are in the vicinity of Europe.

He explains that European nations plunged into a gas-buying spree over the summer that aimed to fill onshore storage tanks with gas. This was to ensure that heaps of fuel would be available to cover energy needs this winter.

The original target was to fill storage facilities to 80% of their total capacity by 1 November. That target has been met, and exceeded, far ahead of schedule. The latest data suggests storage is now at nearly 95% in total.

Imported LNG has played a key role in getting Europe to this point.

But as LNG continues to be brought ashore, demand for facilities that heat the liquid and turn it back into gas remains high. There aren't very many such plants in Europe, partly because the continent has long relied on gas delivered via pipelines from Russia instead.

So that's one reason why LNG ships are waiting around - some are queuing for access to regasification terminals. In the meantime, Germany and the Netherlands have invested in new regasification facilities. Some, rapidly built using converted LNG ships pinned to docksides, are expected to become operational within months.

On top of this bottleneck, less gas is getting used up in Europe than it otherwise might at present because the weather has been very mild well into October.

Plus, as Antoine Halff, co-founder of Kayrros notes, industrial activities that rely on gas have relaxed. This is something he and his colleagues track by scouring satellite images of factories.

"There's been a very dramatic reduction in cement and steel production in Europe," he says.

It all means that a market situation called contango has emerged for LNG, says Mr Carson. That is, when the future price of a commodity is higher than today's price.

"You would get a higher price for a delivery for January than you would in November," he explains.

Michelle Wiese Bockmann, markets editor and analyst at the shipping journal Lloyd's List, says that just by waiting to deliver in December rather than November, the difference in profit could be in the order of tens of millions of dollars per shipment.

LNG storage units at Grain LNG importation terminal, on the Isle of Grain on August 22, 2022 in Rochester, England.

While it is possible that buyers elsewhere in the world could snap up the cargoes of some waiting ships, meaning they might leave and head to Asia, for example, it may yet benefit Europe to have a glut of LNG literally floating around.

Some observers say having the ships wait around is partly a good thing - you want the gas to be available when you need it.

The only spanner in the works is the sobering sums involved. Feverish demand for gas means that countries have already paid extraordinary amounts to secure it.

Germany spent 49.5bn euros (£43.25bn) on imports between January and August, according to the Reuters news agency. That's compared to 17.1bn euros during the same period in 2021.

This is "market forces" at work, says Ms Bockmann. But she emphasises that European nations are "in the best possible position that they could be [in], given the geopolitical situation".

Mr Carson agrees, adding: "In terms of what can actually be done at the moment, the market has responded appropriately."

LNG tanker Rudolf Samoylovich, moors at the dock of the Montoir-de-Bretagne LNG Terminal near Saint-Nazaire, western France, on March 10, 2022.

The real question is what happens next. With gas secured for the coming weeks at least, the price of the commodity in Europe has begun to fall.

But further disruptions to supply and very cold winter months could potentially change the picture yet again.

There's also the global situation to consider. Heightened demand for LNG imports in Europe has boosted competition for gas around the world. Countries such as Pakistan and Bangladesh that rely on LNG, but which have less financial leverage in the market, have been stung by the current situation.

In general, some LNG that might traditionally have gone to Asia has this year sailed to Europe. It has effectively been "a huge game of musical chairs", says Mr Halff.

But some Asian nations, notably China, Japan and South Korea, which also use a lot of LNG, will likely seek significant imports in the colder months, potentially fuelling competition between continents.

For Corey Grindal, chief operating officer and head of worldwide trading at LNG producer Cheniere, what's happening in the LNG market is "a very short-term phenomenon".

Diversification of energy supplies in Europe should ease things in the coming years.

He adds that the vast majority of his firm's LNG output this year has already been sold and that Cheniere's production should rise from 45 million tonnes to 55 million tonnes by around 2026.

The current bonanza over gas has concerned some who argue that pivoting to renewables would be better for the planet and possibly more reliable.

"Renewable deployments is great. I am [all] for doing the right thing for the planet that we live on," says Mr Grindal.

However, he argues that the need for gas to heat people's homes and generate electricity is immediate. "We need it today," he says.

What happens tomorrow depends, in varying degrees, on the war in Ukraine, the weather, the rise of renewables, global demand for gas - and hundreds of ships full of LNG sailing either east or west.-BBC

Competition regulator needs teeth to curb big tech, MPs say

Big tech firms should face tougher penalties for abusing their market power, a committee of MPs has said.

The Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) Committee has urged the government to publish legislation that could allow firms to be fined up to 10% of global annual income for abuses.

MPs say the draft Digital Markets Bill, announced in the Queen's Speech in May, should be published "without delay".

Until this legislation is passed, consumers are at risk, they say.

The committee argues that existing fines have been viewed as just "a small business cost" by the big technology businesses.

New tools

The government has previously said that existing tools to regulate competition are not suitable to deal with the "entrenched market power held by a small number of digital firms".

It proposed the creation of a digital markets unit (DMU) within the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA).

The new bill would give that unit powers to tackle anti-competitive behaviour by tech giants and protect consumer rights.

The CMA welcomed the report and told the BBC it would "carefully consider and respond to the committee's recommendations in due course".

The authority recently required Facebook owner Meta to sell animated-image platform Giphy, shortly after it acquired it.

The ruling was the first time the UK regulator had blocked an acquisition by a tech giant, and was seen as signalling a new determination to scrutinise big digital deals.

Darren Jones, who chairs the BEIS committee, said "The Competition, Consumer and Digital Markets Bill has wide support and should be prioritised, especially given the difficulty the government currently has at passing other laws which are more controversial.

"There are many areas in the economy where stronger competition is required in the interests of consumers, small business and economic growth, and this bill is an essential stepping stone to driving this issue forward."

But in its evidence to the committee, the Coalition for a Digital Economy (Coadec) - which aims to provide a voice for tech startups - told MPs the proposed new regime could threaten the UK's status as the tech capital of Europe.

They told MPs it focused too much on taking action against the biggest firms and not enough on encouraging start-ups to challenge them.

But the government told the BBC that it recognised the importance of the reforms to address competition issues in digital markets.

"That is why we committed to publishing draft legislation in the Queen's Speech and will be taking forward legislation as soon as parliamentary time allows," it said.-BBC

UK doomed without Brexit rethink, warns City boss

The UK is "doomed" and on a path to being "the sick man of Europe" because of the way Brexit was negotiated, according to a past Tory supporter.

Guy Hands, who runs private equity firm Terra Firma and has been a Brexit critic, warned the UK faces higher taxes, lower benefits and a possible International Monetary Fund bailout.

Mr Hands said the Conservative Party needed to admit it has made "mistakes".

A Treasury spokesperson said the UK economic fundamentals were "resilient".

Mr Hands's comments come after a tumultuous period sparked by the mini-budget.

But he suggested the problems facing the UK go back much further.

"The reality is when they did Brexit, they had a dream. And the dream was a low-tax, low-benefit economy," he told the BBC's Today programme.

Outgoing Prime Minister Liz Truss had tried to push through those policies, he said, but it had not worked.

"Once you accept that you can't actually do that, then the Brexit that was done is completely hopeless, and will only drive Britain into a disastrous economic state," Mr Hands said.

"So I think [if] the Tory party can own up to the mistake they made and how they negotiated Brexit and have somebody leading who actually has the intellectual capability and the authority to renegotiate Brexit, there is a possibility of turning around the economy, but without that the economy is frankly doomed."

However he added that the Conservative Party was, in his view, not fit to run the country.

"I think it's got to move on from fighting its own internal wars and actually focus on what needs to be done in economy and admitting some of the mistakes they've made in the last six years which have frankly put this country on a path to be the sick man of Europe," he said.

Ms Truss's mini-budget, unveiled on 23 September, has been blamed for causing turmoil on the financial markets.

Sterling plunged to a record low against the dollar and government borrowing costs rose sharply in the aftermath of the statement, which promised major tax cuts without saying how they would be paid for.

The IMF also openly criticised the UK government over its tax cutting plans, warning that the measures were likely to fuel the cost-of-living crisis.

Last week, the new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt reversed most of the mini-budget, a move that was welcomed by the IMF.

On Monday, financial markets reacted calmly as it emerged that Rishi Sunak is set to be the UK's next prime minister.

Mr Hunt - who backed Mr Sunak - is scheduled to set out the government's economic plan for taxes and spending on 31 October.

But Mr Hands argued that much more needs to be done, in order to turn the economy around.

He said that as a businessperson, he tried to be positive about the investment landscape.

But the reality, he said, is the country faces "increasing levels of poverty, and it's poverty which is moving up the economic level", reaching middle income households who will struggle to pay their mortgages.

He painted a stark prospect for the economy, saying to expect "steadily increasing taxes, steadily reducing benefits and social services, higher interest rates, and eventually the need for a bailout from the IMF".

Mr Hands comments come after a warning at the weekend from a former governor of the Bank of England, Lord Mervyn King, who said the UK was facing a "more difficult" era of austerity than the one after the 2008 financial crisis in order to stabilise the economy.

Lord King said the average person could face "significantly higher taxes" to fund public spending.

A Treasury spokesperson said: "Countries around the world are facing economic challenges, exacerbated by Putin's illegal invasion of Ukraine.

"But the fundamentals of the UK economy remain resilient, with unemployment at its lowest point for almost 50 years and the fastest forecast growth in the G7 this year.

"The government is committed to long-term growth, but this cannot be achieved without fiscal sustainability and economic stability."-BBC

First-time buyers hit by drop in mortgage deals

First-time house buyers could find it more difficult to get onto the property ladder due to fewer mortgage deals with smaller deposits being on offer.

Figures from research body Moneyfacts show there were 137 mortgage offers at 95% loan-to-value on Monday, compared to 347 at the start of 2022.

The downward trend of such deals was accelerated after the mini-budget sparked turmoil on the markets.

Mortgage interest rates hit 14-year highs, but have since begun to fall.

Eleanor Williams , a finance expert at research body Moneyfacts, said first-time buyers were likely to feel the impact of the current climate "keenly" due to them often having smaller deposits and therefore favouring 95% loan-to-value mortgages.

On Monday, Moneyfacts said there were 137 95% loan-to-value mortgage products, compared to 283 on the day of the government's mini-budget.

"The mortgage sector is changeable at the moment, with the level of product choice fluctuating as lenders review their offerings and try to keep up with a changing economic outlook, which has meant that there are fewer products to choose from than there were prior to the recent fiscal announcement," Ms Williams added.

She said that with the cost of living biting into household budgets, buyers looking for a low-deposit mortgage deal would also have concerns about meeting affordability requirements.

Mortgage rates hit fresh 14-year highs

Mortgage rates in general have been rising for months as central banks across the world try to tackle rising inflation, which is currently at 10.1% in the UK.

But when the financial markets reacted badly to government's mini-budget last month, which promised billions of pounds of unfunded tax cuts, UK rates rose even higher.

Lenders also suspended hundreds of mortgage products amid uncertainty over how to price these long term loans.

Moneyfacts said the number of all types of mortgage deals available in the UK had recovered slightly to 3,067 - down from 3,961 on the morning of then Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng's statement.

On Monday, the largest number of deals from lenders was for 75% loan-to-value mortgages (583), the research said.

The picture could change again, with the Bank of England expected to raise interest rates again in November in an attempt to bring down the current rate of inflation.

Average two-and five-year fixed rates are currently at 6.55% and 6.43% respectively, levels not seen since the financial crisis of 2008.

At least 100,000 mortgage holders a month are coming to the end of fixed-rate deals, and face steep rises in monthly repayments.-BBC

Supermarket plan 'was ditched after social media campaign'

The plans would have seen an ALDI supermarket built behind the town hall on Leonards Road car park

At a glance

Councillors have discussed what led to the ALDI scheme being ditched

People living outside of town have been blamed for the plans' demise

It was claimed residents did not feel listened to by the council

Social media and people from outside Ivybridge have been blamed for the collapse of plans to build a new supermarket, which left the council out of pocket by almost half a million pounds.  

In July, South Hams District Council (SHDC) rejected the project following a campaign which saw them in conflict with Ivybridge town council. 

Members of the council's audit and governance committee discussed a report on Thursday into what had gone wrong with Ivybridge’s regeneration scheme, the Local Democracy Reporting Service (LDRS), external reports.

SHDC had agreed to put £9 million into the project which would have seen an ALDI supermarket built behind the town hall on Leonards Road car park; land owned by South Hams council. 

The council’s decision to pursue the plans followed a public consultation in 2020 which showed two thirds of nearly 2,000 respondents supported the proposals.

'Ferocious campaign'

However two years later, after SHDC had already invested £480,000, critics described it as “degeneration, not regeneration.”

Lance Austen, chair of the committee, said: “The town council completely changed its opinion and came out with a totally different decision and there was a pretty ferocious social media campaign against the project.”

Cllr Austen said he felt much of the campaign was being organised by people "in some of the sort of more expensive surrounding areas telling me how they didn’t want an Aldi in the town".

Lib Dem councillor for Stokenham, Julian Brazil, said he thought local people and businesses had just lost confidence in the council’s ability to deliver the project. 

“They talked about moving the skatepark. They talked about increased car parking spaces. And they talked about regeneration. By the time it came to the planning committee, none of those had been resolved," he said.

"The feeling, if you go into Ivybridge now, particularly from the Chamber of Commerce, is that they were not listened to by this council, and that’s why they turned against it,” he added.

He said he feared a similar thing could happen again.

Councillors on the committee agreed to note the contents of the project closure report and, within the next six months, adopt a new planning protocol for major developments.-BBC

Nigeria Ranks 103rd Among 121 Countries Facing Hunger Crisis - AfDB

Nigeria occupies the 103rd position among 121 countries classified to be facing a hunger crisis, said the President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), Akinwumi Adesina.

He stated this at the launch of the Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones (SAPZ) in Nigeria in Abuja on Monday.

Although he said Africa faces huge challenges in meeting its food needs, with 283 million people that go hungry annually, he, however, noted that Africa has massive agricultural potential with 65% of the uncultivated arable land left to feed over 9 billion people in the world by 2050 being in Africa.

Adesina said: "According to the Global Hunger Index (2022), released just a week ago, Nigeria ranks 103rd among 121 countries facing a hunger crisis in the world.

"Hunger in Nigeria cannot be justified. Nigeria has the land, with 34 million hectares of arable land with rich and diverse agroecology."

Speaking about the SAPZ, Adesina said the bank is investing over $1 billion in SAPZs in 18 African countries.

AfDB is providing $210m for the development of the SAPZs in Nigeria, the Islamic Development Bank is co-financing with $150m, while the International Fund for Agricultural Development is adding $160m, he said.

Adesina also said 23 states in Nigeria are backing the scheme which is the largest in Africa and 19 additional state governments have indicated interest to also establish special agro-industrial processing zones,

Vice President Yemi Osinbajo who represented President Muhammadu Buhari at the Official Launch of at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: "If the Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones programme delivers on its objectives and we have no doubt that it will, then we would in less than a decade deal a fatal blow to food insecurity, create millions of good paying agro-industrial jobs and opportunities and radically improve export earnings from agriculture."

-Daily Trust.

Nigeria: One-Third of Global Economy in Recession - Emefiele

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Godwin Emefiele has said that about one-third of the world's economy is currently in recession due to the damaging effects of COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.

Emefiele stated this yesterday in Abuja while addressing Foreign Affairs and Aviation stakeholders at a meeting with the speaker of the House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila.

He also noted that the bank is working outside the box to mop up foreign exchange and strengthen the Naira and, by extension, the economy through what he called the RT 200 policy.

According to the CBN boss, the RT 200 is the policy focusing on the repatriation rates of non-oil exports proceeds into the Nigerian economy, which is almost a billion dollars in the third quarter of 2022.

What is happening is a global challenge. Indeed, as I speak I can say that the global outlook today is darkening due to deepening global slowdown.

"Today more than one-third of the global economy is in recession. The global community is facing rising incidents of unemployment. Indeed, most of the countries of the world are facing rising inflation. As a result, this year alone, the USA happened to raise rates almost by 3.75 percent in 2022. That has created some serious inflation pressures and depreciation on the currencies of other countries.

"From the CBN since February this year, we introduced the RT 200 programme in order to encourage repatriation of Forex proceeds from exporters of non-oil export products. We are gratified that the programme is doing well. When we started it, the first six weeks in February and March, we were only able to see repatriation, we paid rebates on repatriation of about $62 million. The second quarter, we saw an astronomical improvement to $622 million in exports proceeds of non-oil. For the third quarter, we have seen almost close to $1 billion," Emefiele said.

The CBN boss was responding to the issue of $700 million trapped funds of foreign airlines which had threatened to stop flying Nigerian routes from October 28 if nothing was done by government to resolve the backlog.

Emefiele told the gathering that contrary to IATA's representative's position that nothing had been done to reduce the backlog, $265 million had been earmarked for disbursement to the foreign airlines through their various banks.

"Aside from the prioritisation of FX we have always accorded airlines, on the 31st of August I made a decision to use our discretion to allocate $265 million to the foreign airlines.

"We did $110 million in spot and the rest 60 days forward. On that day we allocated to IATA $32 million through UBA, Qatar Airways got $22.8 million through Standard Chartered, Emirates got $19.6 million through Access Bank, BA got $5.5m through GTB; Virgin Atlantic got $4.8 million through Zenith and so on.

"How then can they go about and begin to say they have not received their money? This is aside from the so-called 8 or 10 percent you say you are getting Mr Fatokun (referring to the IATA representative).

"This is extra allocation which we use our own discretion to give you and which I have told you personally that we would continue to do so as to make you guys happy so you don't continue to blackmail this country. Out of that, $120 million would be due on the 31st of October. The monies would be paid. So what else do you want me to do. I must confess there would be delay. Gentlemen, I can print Naira, even though I have been accused of printing Naira, but I cannot print dollars. We have to earn it or borrow it. All these things we are talking about boils down to reciprocity and IATA cannot shy away from that," he said.

He also called on other foreign countries to grant landing permits to Nigerian airlines to fly their routes so as to reduce the burden of accumulated funds going forward.

The Speaker, House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila, in whose instance the meeting held, had earlier told the gathering that the issue of blocked or trapped funds of foreign airlines was giving the House a great cause for concern, hence the need for the forum to find lasting solutions bearing in mind the prevailing economic imperatives.

The minister of Aviation, Sen. Hadi Sirika told the gathering that "Nigeria under President Muhammadu Buhari has shown the capacity and audacity to stand up in difficult moments to do the right thing to help the country".

He recalled that "in 2016 when we came in, there were about $480 million blocked in Nigeria that year; we were in recession and revenues had dwindled. We just heard the CBN Governor say we either earn or borrow it. At that moment, we had not even started borrowing. So, we went to Mr President and informed him of the difficulty we were in. And he asked the CBN Governor and Minister of Finance to resolve the problem, which was done. So, we have demonstrated as a country to be able to respond even in difficult moments to things that are obligations upon us," assuring that the issues will be resolved.

-Leadership.

Nigeria: MTN to Invest N65m in Nigerian Startups Via Grants

MTN is set to invest in Nigerian owned businesses through a campaign - 'MTN Pulse BlowMyHustle', aimed at empowering Nigerian youths involved in scalable businesses.

This investment idea was necessitated because 'side hustles' amongst Nigerian youths have become prevalent compared to previous generations. According to a 2019 Geo Poll, side hustles have become fast-rising, with Nigeria leading the pack at 44.4%, followed by Kenya at 40.8%. This report sampled youths from Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Uganda and Tanzania, and found some of the major side hustles include agriculture, entertainment, ICT, online business, logistics, and food and beverage sectors, among others.

Speaking at the MTN Pulse launch held recently, chief marketing officer, MTN Nigeria, Adia Sowho, said: "7he 'hustle spirit' amongst Nigeria's young people is truly inspiring as they are innovative and entrepreneurial. MTN is here to support that 'hustle' so that their dreams can become reality. Young business owners have told us what they need, and with MTN Pulse Blow My Hustle, we will share business skills from experts in relevant fields and create access to financial grants. We look forward to the transformation that this initiative will propel.

This campaign is geared towards further building entrepreneurial skills amongst Nigerian youths and providing them with the right principles to excel in various business industries.

According to the Sowho, the shortlisted 100 candidates of this initiative will gain access to virtual training on Business Management, Digital Marketing, Financial Literacy, Investment Strategies, Business Legal Requirements, Elevator Pitches amongst others; and tasks will be assigned after each class.

The top 20 contestants will be selected based on performance after the two-week training period as finalists who will present their business ideas to a panel of judges, engage in a brief question and answer session.

According to Macrotrends, the unemployment rate of Nigerian youths as at 2021 was 19.61 per cent, having a decline of 0.06 per cent from 2020. The MTN Pulse 'Blow My Hustle' campaign aims to elevate and improve the standards of living for the eligible participants.

Applications for the MTN Pulse Blow My Hustle campaign is open to explore the various data offerings and share your compelling business plan visit the MTN Pulse website here: mtn.NG/pulse.

-Leadership.

Nigeria: Tax Evasion - 5 Weeks After Closure, First Bank Reopens for Business

First Bank of Nigeria plc reopened all its branches for business on Monday in Kogi State after over one month of closure due to alleged evasion of tax to the tune of N411.12m by the Kogi State government.

A high court in Lokoja had ordered the seal-off of all the branches of the bank in the state over the bank's failure to remit N411.12m in taxes to the coffer of the state government.

Daily Trust noted that after five weeks of closure, many customers of the bank on Monday were seen transacting various businesses in the two branches of the bank in Lokoja.

The Acting Executive Chairman, Kogi State Internal Revenue Service, KGIRS, Alhaji Sule Salihu Enehe said the development was due to the fact that the bank had settled "some percentage" of the tax in question to the coffer of the state government.

-Daily Trust.

Nigeria Eurobonds Overcome Moody's Negative Watch Downgrade, Riding On Angola

Nigeria's Eurobonds on Monday shook off the potentially negative impact of the country's downgrade by Moody's last week. They rose on the back of gains by bonds issued by Angola, which was raised to positive watch by the rating agency.

Moody's late on Friday downgraded both countries to B3 from B2. But, while it put Angola on a positive outlook, it placed Africa's biggest economy under a negative watch. Analysts say these are two bad things that happened to Nigeria at the same time.

Angola's prices rebounded on Monday, the first trading day after the rating review by Moody's, and after a global sell-off on Friday. The gainers were led by the 2032 Eurobond that gained $1.625, while the bonds due in 2048 and 2049 gained $1.125 each.

Nigeria's Eurobonds rebounded on Monday, with the biggest gains by the bonds maturing in 2029, 2033, and 2038, which rose in early trading as much as $1.375, $1.125 and $1.125, respectively. But they closed at $1.375, $0.625, and $0.5, respectively.

On Friday, October 21, 2022, all of Nigeria's Eurobonds fell, with the $750 bond due in 2049 leading the pack, with a decline of $5.5. It was followed by its 2038 bond that shed $5.375.

Market analysts believe that Nigeria rose on the back of the positive development on Angola, even though Nigeria has been moved to a negative watch.

After the heavy losses by Nigerian Eurobonds on Friday, some analysts had expected the crash to continue on Monday. But did not happen. These contrasting developments on the Eurobond market on Friday and Monday can be explained in terms of what market analysts call 'risk-on days and risk-off days. On Risk-on days, investors or market players show determination to take on risks and invest in assets across the various market segments, both debt and equity. Conversely on Risk-off days, not ready to put new money to work. On risk-off days, it does not matter what good news you have on Eurobond, they would drop. What is means is that on such days, people are not willing to take on more risks. Instead, they are determined to sell. That was what happened last Friday, which led to the sell-off in the Eurobond market.

Conversely, Monday was seen by analysts as a Risk-on day, and this was reflected in the gains across the Eurobond market. Therefore, while Nigeria has rating is bad, it has not affected the country's performance on the Eurobond market because you have a risk-on day.

Moody's B3 rating is assigned to an asset that is considered to be speculative and of high credit risk. On the rating scale for Standard and Poor's and Fitch, the move from B2 to B3 is equivalent to a downgrade from B to B-.

In America, a company with a B- rating is considered junk, and not many people would want to touch them. Typically, the kind of risk such a company is carrying is far worse than the risks Nigeria is assuming. They have to refinance their bonds and if they cannot refinance, they could find themselves in big trouble.

It will be interesting for Nigeria to find out what Angola has done to earn a better rating than Nigeria. Until recently, Nigeria's bonds had lower yields than Angola's.

Right now Angola is yielding less than Nigeria when the reverse used to be the case until recently. Nigeria's Nov 2025 Eurobond now yields 14% but Angola Nov 2025 yields 12.16%

It may not be difficult to know the factors responsible for this. Analysts point out the fact that Angola buyback part of its Nov 2025 bond which had 1.5b. The Southern African country last year bought back $636m, with only $864m left. The market considers such a move a statement of strength.

The summary is that Angola has cleaned up its house, and Nigeria learn from this and do the same.

According to figures from the Debt Management Office, Nigeria's monthly interest expenses on the Eurobonds are $100m, while the country's next Eurobond maturity is $500m in July 2023 and there is no maturity in 2024. This places Nigeria in a good position to be able to handle the cash flow challenges that will come from this, analysts say.

Moody's message is clear: "Nigeria, you have three months to get your house in order". As things stand, Moody's could downgrade the country in three to six months, if things do not change.

-Daily Trust.

Invest Wisely!

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INVESTORS DIARY 2022

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

National Unity Day

December 22

Christmas Day

December 25

Boxing Day

December 26

Companies under Cautionary

CBZH

Meikles

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

Turnall

GBH

ZBFH

GetBucks

Zeco

Lafarge

Zimre

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

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