Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 27 March 2020

Fri Mar 27 03:14:05 CAT 2020

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Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 27 March 2020

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ü  Egypt reduces GDP growth target for FY 2019-2020 to 5.1%: minister

ü  Oil slump scalps Nigeria, Angola, Mexico ratings; Saudi and Russia spared

ü  South African port closures to hit global copper supply

ü  Rand Refinery shuts smelter, reduces gold refining during S.Africa lockdown

ü  Glencore closes some operations in four countries over coronavirus curbs

ü  Namibia’s GDP contracts by 1.1% in 2019

ü  In oil markets, it's back to 1998 crisis pricing

ü  War-ravaged, impoverished Somalia starts on road to debt relief

ü  Telkom to close all its stores during lockdown

ü  South African Airways rescue plan deadline extended to May 29

ü  Aveng to stop mining activities during South Africa lockdown

ü  US stocks rally despite record unemployment claims

ü  UK government unveils aid for self-employed

ü  US Senate passes $2tn disaster aid bill

ü  Huawei P40 flagship phones launch amid Covid-19 crisis

ü  The uncertain future for China's electric car makers

ü  Asia's 'shining star' heads for recession due to virus

ü  Record number of Americans file for unemployment

ü  Why orange juice prices are soaring on global markets

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Egypt reduces GDP growth target for FY 2019-2020 to 5.1%: minister

CAIRO (Reuters) - Egypt reduced its GDP growth target for the current fiscal year 2019-20 to 5.1% from 5.6%, Planning Minister Hala al-Saeed said on Thursday, amid the coronavirus crisis.

The North African country also is targeting growth of 4.5% in FY 2020-21 but it could dip to 3.5% if the crisis lasts until mid-year, she added.

Inflation is expected to rise to 9.8% if the coronavirus crisis continues until Dec. 2020, the middle of next FY, on the back of high demand on some products like medical supplies and detergents, she said after a cabinet meeting held by video conference.

The cabinet said in separate statement that it approved the draft law of the FY 2020-21 budget with expected deficit of 6.3%.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Oil slump scalps Nigeria, Angola, Mexico ratings; Saudi and Russia spared

LONDON, March 26 (Reuters) - The plunge in oil prices took a number of high-profile sovereign rating scalps on Thursday, including Nigeria, Mexico, Angola, Ecuador and Oman, although the architects of the slump, Saudi Arabia and Russia, were both spared.

The moves by S&P Global consisted mainly of one-notch downgrades, but it was the sheer number of cuts that caught the eye.

Nigeria was pushed deeper into ‘junk’ territory to B-, Mexico was lowered to BBB leaving it just two cuts from junk, Colombia is now just one step away, while Angola and Ecuador were both chopped into the CCC default danger zone.

“We have lowered the ratings or assigned a negative outlook on some sovereigns because of their heightened risk to manage the fiscal and external shock resulting from lower (oil) prices in addition to the blow to economic growth as a result of the pandemic,” S&P said in a summary of its moves.

Oil prices have plunged more that 60% this year as the combination of an oil market turf war between Saudi Arabia and Russia and the global coronavirus spread have caused a perfect storm.

It has left them at around $26 a barrel which is $15-$20 below the fiscal breakeven points - the oil price countries need to balance their budgets - of even the most efficient producers and $80-$100 under what some countries need. For interactive graphic click tmsnrt.rs/2QOoYnL

S&P also slashed its Brent oil prices assumptions for the year to $30 a barrel as part of its move. It warned last month that a drop to an average of $40 could leave the Middle East region’s average sovereign rating just one notch above ‘junk’ by 2040.

Having been downgraded a number of times in recent years Saudi Arabia’s A- stable rating was spared this time. Russia, along with Kazakhstan, retained its investment grade BBB- stable score, while Qatar stayed at AA- stable.

South African port closures to hit global copper supply

JOHANNESBURG/LONDON (Reuters) - South Africa’s main export terminals will be closed to mineral exports from midnight on Thursday when a nationwide 21-day lockdown over coronavirus begins, disrupting copper supply from major producer Zambia.

Miners in the Zambian copper belt typically transport copper overland to South Africa’s ports, where it is exported mainly to China, the world’s biggest consumer of the metal.

Communications from port authorities seen by Reuters showed South Africa’s “bulk terminals” - ports processing imports and exports of mineral commodities - would shut for the duration of the lockdown.

“All bulk terminals (mineral mining commodities) will be closed,” a note from national port operator Transnet Port Terminals read, according to a shipping agent.

Contacted by Reuters, Transnet Port Terminals did not immediately confirm that mineral commodities would not be exported.

The note said the multi-purpose terminals of East London, Saldanha, Port Elizabeth and Maydon Wharf would all be closed, as well as all automotive terminals. The manganese export terminal of Port Elizabeth would also be closed.

“Transnet has taken a decision to scale down all of its transportation services and operations for non-essential cargo during the period of the state of lockdown,” the managers of Richards Bay terminals said in a letter to clients seen by Reuters.

Only agricultural bulk products such as grains, soya bean meal, fertiliser and wood chips, deemed essential during the lockdown, would continue to be handled, the note said.

“They will not be taking in cargo or outloading cargo as the terminal will not have staff,” said another note shared by an industry source, in reference to the bulk terminal at Durban port, South Africa’s main gateway for copper exports.

Copper miner First Quantum on Tuesday said it was managing the export of its Zambian copper production through “alternate routes” due to controls on ports and transit routes in South Africa.

South Africa exported $209 million worth of copper in 2018, according to United Nations COMTRADE data. China imported 25,000 tonnes of Zambian copper, the data showed.

Rand Refinery shuts smelter, reduces gold refining during S.Africa lockdown

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Rand Refinery will shut its smelter and significantly scale down its gold refining during South Africa’s 21-day lockdown over coronavirus, the gold refiner said on Thursday.

One of the world’s biggest gold refineries, Rand Refinery said it would primarily process “residual surface materials” from South African gold mines and mine dore received from the rest of Africa.

Rand Refinery, which produces between 250 and 280 tonnes of refined gold a year, said its smelter would be shut for 21 days from midnight on Thursday but that a small team would remain for care and maintenance.

The refiner, the only one in Africa certified to deliver gold to major international banks, processes gold from countries including Ghana, Tanzania, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mali, Namibia, Guinea and Zimbabwe.

“A complete shutdown of the refinery would have had a domino effect on the production on the continent,” Rand Refinery CEO Praveen Baijnath said, adding that the sale of refined gold in London provides an important boost to African economies.

“Without the vital foreign exchange, the efforts by various governments on the continent to fight the pandemic would have been severely compromised.”

Stockpiling of mined gold at South African mines for the duration of the lockdown would also create a heightened security risk, Baijnath said. Several armed robberies targeting gold plants have occurred in recent months in South Africa. [nL8N28U28W]

Most of South Africa’s gold mines - including the world’s deepest, Mponeng mine - will temporarily halt operations, going into care and maintenance for the 21-day lockdown. [nL8N2BI5EB]

A private company, Rand Refinery’s shareholders include some of South Africa’s biggest gold miners: AngloGold Ashanti with a 42.4% stake, Sibanye-Stillwater with 33.15%, DRDGOLD which owns 11.3%, Harmony Gold with 10% and Gold Fields which holds 2.76%.

Glencore closes some operations in four countries over coronavirus curbs

(Reuters) - Glencore PLC on Thursday halted a number of smaller mines due to government restrictions to curb the spread of the coronavirus but added its larger operations were not materially impacted.

The London-listed company said it would shutter its oil operations in Chad, some coal and ferroalloys operations in South Africa and Colombia, as well as nickel and zinc mines in Canada.

“To date, our larger operations have not been materially impacted, however a number of our smaller assets have had to restrict or stop operations,” the miner said in a statement.

Glencore joins peers such as Anglo American, Antofagasta, Codelco and Teck Resources in temporarily closing or slowing some operations, hitting global supply of commodities.

To slow the spread of the virus, South Africa and Colombia installed nation-wide quarantines this week that will run until mid-April, while Quebec province in Canada ordered non-essential businesses to close.

Namibia’s GDP contracts by 1.1% in 2019

WINDHOEK (Reuters) - Namibia’s economy contracted by 1.1% in 2019 compared to growth of 0.7 percent in 2018, as the worst drought in a century took its toll, the central bank said on Thursday.

The contraction was mainly due to its primary industries, which declined by 7.8% in 2019 compared with an increase of 8.5% in 2018, preliminary national accounts figures released by the statistics office showed.

In oil markets, it's back to 1998 crisis pricing

LONDON (Reuters) - Brent oil futures may be trading at $27 per barrel but oil producers are selling their crude in the physical market at lower prices not seen since the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s.

Most are offloading their oil for below $20 a barrel as the coronavirus pandemic savages demand and global supply rises amid a battle between Saudi Arabia and Russia for market share, according to traders, state oil firms, major refiners and prices quoted in physical markets.

While some crude grades typically sell at a discount to Brent, the market environment is making that gap even wider and other grades that usually cost more than the European benchmark are now cheaper for the most time ever.

The discounting is leaving revenue per barrel at a fraction of the prices factored into many 2020 budgets, which is likely to put even more pressure on government finances in some oil producing countries.

In extreme cases, once discounts and other costs have been applied, the value of some producers’ oil is close to $10 a barrel while Venezuela’s Merey crude sold for as little as $8 last week, according to Refinitiv data and traders.

While all types of crude have been hit, so-called light and medium sweet grades are the least in demand, meaning the outlook is bleaker for countries such as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Nigeria, according to traders in oil from those countries.

Light grades with low density and sulphur are mostly used to make naphtha, gasoline and jet fuel, refined products that are both out of favour because of the economic fallout from the pandemic and also hard to store for long.

While Moscow and Riyadh remain locked in their battle, physical oil traders say a glut might push prices even lower as more countries lock down and trade slows.

This week, Russia got as little as $18 per barrel for its benchmark export grade medium sour Urals while Saudi Arabia was selling its Arab Light in Europe for $16, according to Reuters calculations based on official Saudi prices and Urals deals.

Canada’s key Western Canada Select grade was worth $15 a barrel on March 16, the last day of its monthly trading cycle, and will now probably sell closer to $10 if its last discount of $13.6 to the U.S. WTI benchmark is applied.

Traders said the pressure on prices and the desire on the part of sellers to offload crude quickly was evident in the way deals were being struck at the moment.

“Normally, we used to discuss cargoes at bid versus offer spreads of around 10 to 20 cents for several weeks before we closed a deal,” one trader at a major refining firm said.

“Now, we have bid versus offer spreads of $2 to £3 a barrel and they’re done immediately.”

DOWNWARD CORRECTIONS

Just last week, analysts and leading traders predicted global oil demand would drop by 10 million barrels per day, or 10% in the next months. A week later, top trading house Vitol said it expected a 20% loss over the next few weeks.

Indian refiners are cutting back on output while European plants are considering closures. Chinese demand is recovering but it’s the only bright spot as the United States, which consumes a fifth of the world’s fuel, is locking down.

In a sign of the demise of sweet grades, Azeri Light is being priced at about 50 cents below dated Brent, the first time it has ever fallen below the European benchmark. Forties, a North Sea light sour oil, has fallen to $1.65 a barrel below dated Brent, its lowest since 2008.

Gasoline and jet fuel do not store as long as other products due to their high quality, seasonality and additives. Diesel, fuel oil and crude oil, meanwhile, can sit in tanks for years.

“You can’t store winter gasoline with the summer version and now is the time when you have to switch. You can’t really hold gasoline in tank for longer than six months,” said a European crude and products trader.

“Sour grades are more economic right now for refiners but that is only temporary as we will end up with a flood of diesel and fuel oil,” he said.

Nigeria, which is the biggest oil producer in Africa and relies on crude for 90% of its foreign exchange earnings, is struggling to sell its mainly light, sweet oil to refiners - despite record price cuts.

Algeria’s light, sweet Saharan Blend and Kazakhstan’s light, sour grade CPC Blend, meanwhile, are trading at eight-year lows with discounts of $2 and $4 to the price of Brent respectively.

Traders said cargoes of crude for delivery in April had not been hit too badly because many of the deals were struck before the oil market rout, but now prices would only go lower still.

“April was sold quite ahead of time as refiners plan several months in advance but May will not be good. All the grades will need more downward corrections,” one trader said.

War-ravaged, impoverished Somalia starts on road to debt relief

MOGADISHU (Reuters) - Shattered by decades of war, Somalia can finally look forward to rebuilding normal economic ties with the world after the IMF and World Bank announced it had taken the necessary steps to see most of its $5.2 billion of external debt forgiven.

The decision announced on Wednesday allows the Horn of Africa nation to get badly-needed grants from the World Bank and African Development Bank to combat a locust invasion and floods and strengthen its health system to face the coronavirus, said World Bank country representative Hugh Riddell.

It will also clear the way for Somalia to receive grants as part of over $50 billion in emergency aid being made available by the International Monetary Fund for coronavirus response.

The IMF’s executive board also approved Somalia to receive a new three-year financing arrangement worth $395 million.

“This is in the nick of time,” Riddell told Reuters. “Without Decision Point, Somalia would not have had access to World Bank money to invest in health systems and pandemic preparedness.”

“Decision Point” refers to the agreement between the Fund, the World Bank and the African Development Bank to let Somalia to seek relief under the complex Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, which could eventually see Somalia’s debt reduced to $557 million if it meets targets for good governance.

The move sends a powerful signal to Somalia’s Paris Club creditors, due to meet on March 31. Somali Finance Minister Abdirahman Beileh last month said he hoped they would agree to cancel between 75% to 80% of Somalia’s debt, with the rest to be repaid on closely supervised terms over the next few years.

“Reaching Decision Point is the greatest milestone Somalia and its people have achieved for the past 30 years,” Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire told Reuters.

‘HERCULEAN EFFORTS’

Getting to Decision Point has taken eight years and Herculean efforts by the Somali government. The military, used to picking up bags of cash from the central bank, is now paying its soldiers directly using a biometric identity system and electronic transfers.

New regulations govern the booming banking and telecoms sectors. Legislation has been passed governing public finances and revenues.

Collecting revenues has been hard. For years, politically-connected cartels controlled the port and airport in Mogadishu, pocketing most of the fees. When the central bank tried to set up an airport kiosk to collect visa fees, Khaire had physically to take bank officials to the airport to make sure it happened.

“When I took office as prime minister, 21 out of the 26 ministries were collecting revenues. There were also about a dozen private companies collecting revenues on behalf of the Government of Somalia,” Khaire told Reuters.

Now only the Ministry of Finance is authorised to collect revenues, his office said - although illegal roadblocks, corruption and extortion remain common.

“To undertake all these changes you have to go through layers of vested interests who have been benefiting from that system for some many years,” he noted drily.

CHANGE IS HARD

Forcing change in Somalia is difficult - assassinations and bombings are common, and not all by the Islamist al Shabaab insurgency, which killed four people in a suicide bombing on Wednesday. The group wants to overthrow the government and rule using their own strict version of Islamic law.

Somalia, home to 15 million people, is due to hold elections this year although it is unclear if a coronavirus outbreak might affect the timetable. Conflict and disaster have already forced more than 2.6 million Somalis to flee their homes.

IMG Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the government needed to continue expanding cooperation with Somalia’s federal member states, and should be conservative on future borrowing to avoid “falling back into debt distress”.

Jarat Chopra, who previously managed Somalia’s debt at the World Bank and subsequently headed the U.N. sanctions monitoring group on Somalia, said the process had been politicized and Somalia had not met the same requirements as other countries.

“There are some greater financial controls but not enough to bring down the level of corruption,” he said.

Telkom to close all its stores during lockdown

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South African telecom company Telkom will close all its stores during the 21-day national lockdown due to start from midnight, it said on Thursday.

President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the lockdown in an address on Monday, saying Africa’s most advanced economy needed to escalate its response to the spread of the coronavirus, which has infected 709 people in the country.

“As a company, we wholeheartedly support this measure. There is no doubt that this is the best tool we have to flatten the curve and save lives,” said Telkom Consumer Chief Executive Serame Taukobong in a statement.

“We salute the strong action taken by the government.”

Customers will be able purchase airtime or data and LTE bundles through the Telkom website, app and at supermarkets, while compact routers can be purchased at Shoprite’s Checkers supermarkets.

The telecoms industry has experienced a spike in network data traffic in recent days after hundreds of schools and universities were forced to shut down.

While South African telecoms operators say their networks have been able to cope so far, there are fears of congestion as more people work from home.

Telkom said its call centres will remain open however, with fewer agents primarily working from home.

“We continue to work closely with our partners and suppliers to ensure all critical equipment to keep the network stable is in stock and available for use,” said Taukobong.

“Our technicians will be available to attend to critical work on the network and to support our customers as needed.”

South African Airways rescue plan deadline extended to May 29

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Creditors of cash-strapped South African Airways (SAA) have authorised an extension of the deadline for the airline’s business rescue plan until May 29, the airline’s administrators said on Thursday.

State-owned SAA entered a form of bankruptcy protection in December and is fighting for its survival.

The specialists appointed to try to save the airline requested the latest extension for the rescue plan because of the global coronavirus pandemic.

“We confirm that a further extension for the publication of the plan from 31 March 2020 to 29 May 2020 has been approved by the requisite majority of the creditors,” the specialists said in a letter seen by Reuters.

SAA has not made a profit since 2011 and has received more than 20 billion rand ($1.1 billion) in bailouts in the past three years.

It said last week that it would suspend intercontinental and African regional flights until the end of May because of the coronavirus.

It has also suspended domestic flights during a 21-day nationwide lockdown ordered by President Cyril Ramaphosa to try to contain the local spread of the virus.

($1 = 17.4748 rand)

Aveng to stop mining activities during South Africa lockdown

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Aveng will stop mining activities at its South African sites during a 21-day lockdown over the coronavirus crisis, while some of its operations in New Zealand have stopped temporarily, the construction and resources company said on Thursday.

Aveng’s South African business, Moolmans, currently has open cut contract mining operations in the Northern Cape and Mpumalanga provinces as well as in Guinea in West Africa plus a deep level operation in the Limpopo province of South Africa.

Moolmans is also involved in underground mining.

Aveng said essential care and maintenance activities would continue as required on a site by site basis to ensure mining activities can restart as quickly as possible after the national lockdown.

Mining companies in South Africa are bracing for a heavy hit from the lockdown, with many putting mines on care and maintenance status.

The country’s minister of mines and energy said on Wednesday mining firms would continue to process platinum group metals during the lockdown.

In New Zealand, 75% of the offshore operations of Aveng’s subsidiary McConnell Dowell have been temporarily stopped due to a lockdown there. In South East Asia, one project in Indonesia has been impacted while all projects in Australia are currently operational, it said.

McConnell Dowell, an engineering, construction and maintenance contractor, has an order book made up of 90% government projects across its operating regions in Australia, New Zealand, the Pacific and South East Asia.

Following announcements of temporary operational closures by a number of large automotive customers in South Africa and the port authority, Aveng Trident Steel operations have also shut down, alongside operations in its remaining manufacturing businesses.

“Revenue will be reduced through this period until projects restart,” the company said.

“We will continue to engage with our clients, suppliers, insurers, banks and investors over the coming days and weeks to find ways to protect Aveng, ensure its ongoing sustainability and alleviate the burden on our people and other stakeholders.”

US stocks rally despite record unemployment claims

Top US share indexes have jumped for a third day in a row as investors hope a giant government relief package will blunt the economic blow from the coronavirus.

The Dow Jones and S&P 500 both climbed more than 6%, capping their best three-day streaks since the Great Depression.

The Nasdaq ended higher for a second day, up 5.6%.

The rise came despite data showing a record 3.28 million Americans filed for unemployment last week.

Firms in line for aid, including Boeing, helped drive the gains.

Weeks of losses

Shares in the aerospace giant jumped nearly 14% on Thursday. The company - which was in dire straits prior to the coronavirus closures, due to two fatal crashes - has seen its share price nearly double since the start of the week.

The rally follows weeks of stock market losses, as investors try to gauge the economic impact of nationwide business closures and restrictions on travel.

The US indexes, which have fluctuated wildly, remain more than 20% off their February highs amid concerns about the economic scarring that will be left by the pandemic.

However, they have rallied this week as governments around the world take steps to try to cushion the blow.

The US Congress is widely expected to pass a more than $2 trillion relief bill, which includes direct payments for American households and support for companies big and small.

The UK has also unveiled aid, including on Thursday a plan to provide grants for the self-employed.

Earlier, European markets also ended higher with London's FTSE 100 up 2.2%.--BBC

UK government unveils aid for self-employed

Self-employed workers can apply for a grant worth 80% of their average monthly profits to help them cope with the financial impact of coronavirus, the chancellor has announced.

The money - up to a maximum of £2,500 a month - will be paid in a single lump sum, but will not begin to arrive until the start of June at the earliest.

Rishi Sunak told the self-employed: "You have not been forgotten."

Wage subsidies of 80% for salaried employees were announced last week.

Shortly after the chancellor spoke, the number of people in the UK who have died with Covid-19 - the disease caused by coronavirus - jumped by more than 100 in a day for the first time.

The total now stands at 578.

The government had faced criticism for failing to provide support for self-employed and freelance workers in its earlier package of economic measures.

Mr Sunak said the steps taken so far were "already making a difference" but it was right to go further "in the economic fight against the coronavirus".

Self-employed people will be able to apply for a grant worth 80% of their average monthly profits over the last three years, up to £2,500 a month.

At least half their income needs to have come from self-employment as registered on the 2018-19 tax return filed in January - anyone who missed the filing deadline has four weeks from now to get it done and still qualify.

The scheme is open to those who earn under £50,000 a year - up to 3.8 million of the 5 million people registered as self-employed.

Unlike the employee scheme, the self-employed can continue to work as they receive support.

The money, backdated to March, will arrive directly into people's banks accounts from HMRC, but not until June.

The grants will be taxable, and will need to be declared on tax returns by January 2022.

Company owners who pay themselves a dividend are not covered.

The scheme does not cover people who only became self-employed very recently - the chancellor said they would have to look to the benefits system for support.

Coming up with a workable scheme had been "difficult", he continued, because the self-employed were a "diverse population" and some of them earned a great deal.

But in all, the "fair, targeted and deliverable" plan would help 95% of people who earn most of their income via self-employment.

"We have not left you behind, we all stand together," he added.

Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick later told the BBC's Question Time that even where self-employed workers were unable to provide full financial records going back three years, the government was urging people to "give us what they've got and we will work through it with HMRC to see if there's a way to support you".

'When can I go out?' Social distancing rules explained

The Federation of Small Business, which represents many self-employed workers, welcomed the intervention, saying: "Although the deal is not perfect, the government has moved a very long way today."

But Labour's shadow chancellor John McDonnell said he was worried the money would come "too late for millions".

"People need support in the coming days and fortnight... there is a real risk that without support until June the self-employed will feel they have to keep working, putting their own and others' health at risk."

Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, said the government had been too slow to recognise the severity of the crisis.

Torsten Bell, from think tank the Resolution Foundation, said the very significant package stood in "stark contrast" to the "much less generous" support being given to employees who lose their jobs or see their hours cut during the crisis.

The Coronavirus Self-Employment Income Support scheme is another extraordinary, multi-billion pound support, reflecting the brutal economic impact of a shutdown designed to keep the pandemic in check.

In recent days, Treasury ministers appeared to be trying to dampen down expectations, telling MPs it was problematic to establish a fair scheme, and the employee job retention scheme would be the logistical priority.

The government wants to set up the scheme to keep employed jobs as the priority first, so the banks will need to be relied on to support many of the self-employed with overdrafts to tide them over until the grant goes into their bank accounts in about 10 weeks' time.

The sting in the tail? The chancellor said he can no longer justify, after things get back to normal, that self-employed people pay less tax than the employed. But that is for another day.

In the UK, more than 11,600 people have now tested positive for coronavirus - although the actual number of cases is likely to be far higher.

The peak of demand for intensive care was expected to come in two to three weeks, but speaking alongside the chancellor at Thursday's briefing, England's deputy chief medical officer, Dr Jenny Harries, refused to be drawn on any predictions.

She said the UK was "only just starting to see a bite in the interventions - the social distancing - that have been put into place", but things appeared to be "starting to move in the right direction".

The government has imposed strict controls on everyday life designed to slow the spread of the disease.

In other developments:

·         Police have been given new powers arrest people who break coronavirus lockdown

·         The government has blamed a communications mix-up for missing the deadline to join an EU scheme to get extra ventilators for the coronavirus crisis - ministers had been accused of putting Brexit before public health

·         Clarence House said Prince Charles was "enormously touched" by the hundreds of get-well messages he received following his positive test for coronavirus

·         The UK has become the largest contributor to the international coalition to find a coronavirus vaccine after donating £210m in new aid funding, Downing Street said

·         About 170 Britons stranded in Peru have returned to the UK on the first government-chartered flight

·         Number 10 insists the government is on course to test 10,000 people a day by the end of the week, despite testing just 6,643 on Wednesday

·         The government extends its target for volunteers to help the NHS to 750,000, after an "amazing" 560,000 people signed up since Tuesday, Downing Street says

·         In the US, the Senate has passed a $2tn (£1.7tn) disaster aid bill which includes $1,200 for most adults, as a record number of Americans file for jobless benefits

·         Worldwide, there are more than 500,000 recorded infections, and more than 22,000 deaths--BBC

US Senate passes $2tn disaster aid bill

The US Senate has passed a $2 trillion (£1.7tn) coronavirus aid bill that is the largest economic stimulus in US history.

The vote was delayed by a last-minute row between Republican and Democratic senators over unemployment benefits.

The plan includes direct payments of $1,200 to most American adults and aid to help small businesses pay workers.

US coronavirus deaths are around the 1,000 mark and there have been nearly 70,000 confirmed infections.

More than 21,000 people with coronavirus have died across the world since it emerged in China's Hubei province in December, while the number of infections is racing towards half a million.

Southern Europe is now the centre of the pandemic, with Italy and Spain recording hundreds of new deaths every day.

President Donald Trump, a Republican, said on Wednesday he would sign the fast-tracked bill as soon as it reached his desk.

But the plan hit a speed bump as Republican senators Tim Scott, Rick Scott, Ben Sasse and Lindsey Graham said its major expansion of unemployment benefits provided "a strong incentive for employees to be laid off instead of going to work".

They said they would oppose the bill unless it was fixed to ensure workers could not have a higher income while unemployed than in a job.

Senator Bernie Sanders, who is running for the Democratic presidential nomination, said he would oppose the bill unless the Republicans dropped their objections. He also demanded tougher conditions on the legislation's "corporate welfare".

In the end the Republican senators were allowed a vote on their amendment, which failed.

The bill does have cross-party support but it must still be passed in votes in the Senate and House of Representatives before the president signs it into law.

With revisions being made to the bill late into Wednesday, the Republican-majority Senate finally, and unanimously, approved it with a 96-0 vote. It now moves on to the House which is expected to vote on Friday.

The face of America's fight against Covid-19

Trump says US tested more than S Korea - is he right?

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he was "proud" that not a single senator voted against the bill.

The chamber's senior Democrat, Senator Chuck Schumer, said: "And so this is a good ending, twists and turns were enormous. I always had faith we would [pass this bill] because America and the American people demanded it."

What do we know about the deal?

The agreement reached by Republican and Democratic leaders in the Senate includes tax rebates, loans, money for hospitals and rescue packages.

The nearly 900-page bill has a price tag that amounts to roughly half the size of the US government's annual budget, and includes:

Direct payments of $1,200 to millions of individuals who earn $75,000 or less, and an additional $500 per each child

An expansion of unemployment aid including payments, for the first time, to people who are self-employed or work in the gig economy

A $500bn fund to help companies, which includes loans to hard-hit sectors such as the airline industry

$350bn in loans for small businesses

$100bn for hospitals and related health systems on the frontlines of the pandemic

Mr McConnell described the package as a "wartime level of investment" in the US nation.

The Democratic speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, said she hoped the bill could be passed by voice vote.

That would allow members of Congress - several of whom have coronavirus or are self-isolating - to stay away from the chamber in order to cast their votes.

But if any member objected, lawmakers would be asked to return to Washington and vote over the course of an entire day, in order to limit how many people are present on the House floor at one time.

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said on Wednesday it was likely half of America's most populous city of more than eight million would catch coronavirus by the time the pandemic ran its course.

The city's death toll reached 280, officials said on Wednesday night, with 20,011 confirmed cases.

On Tuesday, 13 patients died in a matter of hours at a hospital in the Queens borough of the city, with a young doctor there describing "apocalyptic" scenes, according to the New York Times.

But there were signs of hope. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo spoke of tentative indications that the spread of the disease may be slowing.

On Sunday, hospital admissions were doubling every two days. But by Monday that rate had fallen to every 3.4 days, and on Tuesday every 4.7 days, Mr Cuomo said.

The whole of New York state has had 285 coronavirus deaths and more than 33,000 patients - about half the total US caseload.

What is the situation elsewhere in the US?

The US Federal Emergency Management Agency said New York, North Carolina and Hawaii had requested special mortuary teams to be ready for mass casualties.

New Orleans, in Louisiana, where crowds celebrated Mardi Gras last month, has recorded the world's highest growth rate in coronavirus cases.

California's Governor Gavin Newsom said one million Californians had registered as unemployed just this month.

The US is more than midway through a 15-day attempt to slow the spread of the virus through social distancing.

Two more states - Minnesota and Idaho - issued state-wide "stay at home" orders on Wednesday, joining at least 17 others.

The president said on Tuesday that reopening the country by Easter would be a "beautiful timeline".

But Dr Anthony Fauci, the infectious disease expert who is helping lead the US response to coronavirus, told CNN on Wednesday: "The virus makes the timeline."--BBC

Huawei P40 flagship phones launch amid Covid-19 crisis

Huawei has launched a range of new flagship smartphones despite the coronavirus pandemic.

The firm unveiled the P40 phones a day after the firm's founder announced that 90% of the company's 150,000 China-based employees had returned to work.

But experts say demand for the handsets will likely be weak outside of its home market, at least in the short-term.

They say many consumers and businesses are focused on buying laptops, PCs and tablets if they are spending at all.

"Smartphones are not a priority and certainly not premium ones," commented Marta Pinto from market research firm IDC.

"People's consumption confidence is falling because they are more concerned about buying things like groceries and whether they will keep their jobs.

"Even if you are still buying, because you're working from home, you'll probably purchase a laptop and monitor. Or because kids need to go to school online, you might buy them a tablet or Chromebook."

The new handsets were unveiled via a livestreamed video feed rather than at one of the big-budget events Huawei typically hosts.

Unlike last year's models, the P40 phones lack Google services - including its YouTube, Maps and Play Store apps, and the Google Assistant - because of a US trade ban.

That makes them a difficult sale outside of China, where Android phones come preinstalled with alternatives.

But as a result, one company-watcher suggested that the firm might actually be in a better place to deal with the consequences of Covid-19 than its rivals.

"Huawei was already pretty much locked out of markets outside of China, and had factored in a pretty tough trading environment for the next year or two," explained Ben Wood from CCS Insight.

"So, it is other phone-makers that have a bigger shock to deal with. LG and Sony's smartphone divisions, in particular, were already sub-scale and may not survive.

"And don't forget, that the majority of Huawei's sales are still coming from its home market in China, where it's been selling over 40 million units on a quarterly basis. And that market is recovering faster than others having already endured coronavirus and seems to be coming out the other side."

Huawei remains the world's second bestselling handset-maker, but had once aimed to overtake Samsung before the end of 2019.

Founder Ren Zhengfei told the Wall Street Journal that his firm now planned to boost its wider research and development budget by $5.8bn (£4.8bn) this year, taking it to more than $20bn. And part of that is being spent on building up its own library of apps.

"In markets outside of China, we don't see significant [smartphone] growth," he added.

"We are taking measures to address that."

AI smarts

There are three versions of the new phones: the standard P40, with a 6.1in screen, and a larger mid-range P40 Pro and high-end Pro+, which both have 6.58in displays. That makes then slightly bigger than Apple's iPhone 11 Pro Max.

All support 5G. The basic model has three rear cameras, including one that is capable of a 3x optical zoom - meaning users can tighten in on the subject without sacrificing quality.

The P40 Pro adds a time-of-flight depth sensor and upgrades the telephoto lens to a periscope design, allowing light to be reflected into the device to deliver a 5x optical zoom.

And the Pro+ betters this with a 10x optical zoom periscope lens. If a digital effect is employed, the Pro+ can achieve 100x zoom. This matches Samsung's Galaxy S20 Ultra - but Huawei claims to produce a better shot.

Huawei also said its phones featured bigger camera sensors than those found in either the Galaxy S20 series or iPhone 11 range, giving it an advantage in low-light situations when the owner does not want to use the flash.

Other standout features include:

·         artificial intelligence techniques that can remove undesired objects from a scene and to eliminate reflections in glass

·         a super-slow motion video mode that captures footage at 7,680 frames per second

·         a 32 megapixel selfie camera that can record in 4K. In the two higher models, this is enhanced with its own depth-sensing tech to create background blur in portrait snaps

·         a smart assistant summoned by saying "Hey Celia", which can identify flowers and other objects the phone is shown

The Huawei App Gallery includes TikTok, Telegram, Viber, and Microsoft Office among other products. But beyond Google's apps, it is also missing Twitter, Facebook and WhatsApp.

To help make up for the loss of YouTube, the firm has created its own Huawei Video app.

It has signed a deal with BBC Studios to provide access to 300 hours of content.

Huawei Video will include BBC drama, comedy and factual TV shows in 26 countries outside the UK.

And to replace the Duo video chat app, it offers MeeTime, which it claims offers superior performance in low-light conditions.

"The design of the devices is superb - they are very sleek," commented Ms Pinto.

"And it's clever that they've been able to bring more stability to the ultra-zoom lens than Samsung did with its S20 Ultra, assuming the P40 Pro+ lives up to its promise.

"But it remains a hard sell, because would you actually want to use something like MeeTime rather than WhatsApp?"

The P40 and P40 Pro go on sale on 7 April, and start from €799 (£742, $890) and €999 respectively, The P40 Pro+ will be released in June, and is priced at €1,399.--BBC

The uncertain future for China's electric car makers

Han Zhu is on a mission to go green. The 29-year-old data analyst wants her next car to be electric. But her reasons for buying an electric vehicle are in part practical.

In the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen, government restrictions on the number of petrol cars sold each year mean she would have to enter a lottery or auction to be able to buy a petrol vehicle.

"There is a possibility you may never get it. With the electric vehicle green licence, you don't have to wait in line," she says.

Shenzhen has become the showpiece capital for the Chinese electric dream. In 2017 it became the first city in the world to introduce a fleet of electric buses. A year later, the government rolled out a plan to replace city taxis with electric cars.

"In Shenzhen, in almost every residential building there are two charging units. One out of 10 cars on the street are Teslas," she says. "In China if the policy leads in one direction, technology and money goes in that direction too," she says.

In less than a decade China's new electric vehicle market has become the largest in the world. In 2018 more than a million electric vehicles were sold in China, more than three times the number sold in the US.

Beijing invested an estimated $50bn (£43bn) in the industry, hoping that today's dominance of the electric vehicle market would lead to global automobile supremacy tomorrow.

And thus far the policy has been working. Over the last three years the number of Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers has tripled, with more than 400 registered nationwide.

But that breakneck expansion alarmed the government. Last year it decided to put the brakes on by withdrawing approximately half of its financial incentives for buyers.

A slump in sales quickly followed, in the last quarter of 2019 sales for electric vehicles plummeted.

Now the coronavirus has supplied a second punch.

Manufacturers have been forced to halt production lines and close dealerships in a bid to stop the spread of virus.

Overall auto sales in plunged 79% in February compared with the same month in 2019, according to figures from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) fell for the eighth month in a row.

"China's auto market was already reeling from a large drop in demand in 2019. In 2020 no carmaker has been immune to the effects of the coronavirus. That includes everyone from the oldest joint ventures producing internal combustion engine SUVs to the most innovative upstarts making connected electric vehicles," says Scott Kennedy from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"The vast majority [of electric car makers] will not survive. But how long they survive and whether industry consolidation occurs through lots of mergers or bankruptcies will depend on the willingness of the government."

After listing on the New York Stock Exchange in 2018 and raising billions of dollars, NIO is perhaps the highest-profile Chinese maker of electric cars.

But in the five years since it was founded it has been beset by problems and has burned through hundreds of millions of dollars. In 2019 the company cut 2,000 jobs on the back of falling revenues. In February it announced it had signed a tentative agreement with a local government that has pledged to fund the company.

"China is a huge market growing at an immense pace. We will adjust and adapt to the market condition," said an NIO spokesperson.

And it's not just the car makers. China has some giant makers of components, such as batteries.

In 2018 CATL, a Chinese electric battery maker, became the official supplier of BMW's electric cars.

Last month Tesla announced it would enter into an agreement with the company to supply batteries for Tesla's newly built Shanghai mega-plant, capable of producing 500,000 vehicles a year.

But despite that apparent success, analysts have their doubts.

"Chinese auto and battery technology is still not world-class. CATL and BYD are strong battery makers, but they are still somewhat behind technologically from their South Korean and Japanese counterparts. And Chinese automakers are still second-class producers even in their own country and they have barely any sales outside China," says Mr Kennedy.

For car buyers, that question of quality hangs over China's electric car makers.

Yi Zhi Yong, a middle-aged entrepreneur, drives a hybrid car made by Chinese manufacturer BYD. Backed by US billionaire Warren Buffett, the company was the third-largest battery-only electric car producer in the world in 2019, according to research by EV-volumes.com. Tesla sold the most, followed by another Chinese firm, BAIC.

He didn't buy a pure electric vehicle because he is not confident about the quality.

"The quality of domestic pure electric vehicles is not good at the moment," he says. "No domestic pure electric vehicle is worth buying yet."

But he feels the progress made by China is a source of national pride. "In the 1990s we couldn't imagine that China could build cars that can compete with the Japanese," he says.

Back in Shenzhen, Han Zhu says the rolling back of government subsidies won't put her off buying an electric vehicle. But rather than buying a Chinese marque, she has her eye on a Tesla.

"I think that they are totally different. I was super excited about Tesla but not other electric cars," she says.--BBC

Asia's 'shining star' heads for recession due to virus

The world has been given an indication of the economic impact of coronavirus as Singapore released its initial growth figures for this quarter.

The trade-reliant city state now looks to be heading for its first full-year recession in about two decades.

The figures suggest that the global economy is also set for a sharp contraction.

This week the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned of a global recession worse than the one after the 2008 financial crisis.

Singapore said gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 2.2% year-on-year while, compared with the previous quarter, GDP fell by 10.6%.

It marks the biggest quarterly contraction for the South East Asian nation since 2009, in the midst of the global financial crisis.

As one of first countries to release economic growth data for the period in which the outbreak has been spreading globally, the numbers from Singapore provide a glimpse of how the ongoing pandemic could affect economies around the world.

Singapore was also one of the first countries outside China to report cases of the coronavirus.

Later on Thursday Singapore announced a package worth $33.7bn (£28.3bn) to help cushion its economy from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

It comes after the IMF this week forecast a global recession this year which would be at least as bad as the one seen in the wake of the financial crisis more than a decade ago.

Lockdowns and other measures imposed by governments around the world to slow the spread of the virus are battering the global economy, with many analysts now expecting a deep, long recession.--BBC

Record number of Americans file for unemployment

The number of Americans filing for unemployment has surged to a record high as the economy goes into lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Nearly 3.3 million people registered to claim jobless benefits for the week ended 21 March, according to Department of Labor data.

That is nearly five times more than the previous record of 695,000 set in 1982.

The rush overwhelmed many state offices handling the claims and signalled an abrupt end to a decade of expansion.

The shift comes as officials in states across the country close restaurants, bars, cinemas, hotels and gyms in an effort to slow the spread of the virus.

Live updates

Car firms have halted production and air travel has fallen dramatically. According to economists, a fifth of the US workforce is on some form of lockdown.

Analysts said the situation could be even worse than the data currently shows, noting the reports of jammed call lines and crashing state websites. Some kinds of workers, such as people working part-time, do not qualify.

"I've been writing about the US economy ... since 1996, and this is the single worst data point I've seen, by far," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist of Pantheon Economics.

Nationally, the figures are nearly five times higher than the worst point of the 2008 financial crisis.

In Illinois, weekly jobless claims increased 10-fold. They more than quintupled in New York and more than tripled in California, which were among the earliest and biggest states to impose restrictions. The effects were even more dramatic in smaller states.

While some retailers, such as Walmart and Amazon, have announced plans to hire, economists said that will not make up for the jobs lost. As incomes evaporate, the economic damage is likely to snowball, since consumer spending accounts for the majority of the US economy.

"Once the risks around the virus pass, it will not be just easy to flip the switch and employment returns to pre-crisis levels," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM wrote on Twitter. "That is not how this is going to work and will require more aid."

In Washington, Congress is expected to pass a more than $2tn (£1.7tn) stimulus bill, which includes direct payments of $1,200 (£999) to adults, an expansion of unemployment benefits, and financing for affected industries, such as airlines. The Federal Reserve has also taken unprecedented steps to shore up the economy.

But even with such action, a sharp economic contraction is inevitable, analysts said. Lower income workers are particularly vulnerable, as the lockdown forces retailers, fast food outlets and other low wage employers to cut back or close.

Mr Shepherdson said he expects to see the unemployment rate increase to at least 6.5% shortly - nearly double the prior rate - and continue to accelerate in future months.

"Fed action and fiscal measures can only ameliorate the pain and we remain worried that the latter aren't yet on a sufficient scale," Mr Shepherdson wrote.

As recently as February, the US unemployment rate was hovering near historic lows at 3.5%. The number of jobless claims was only about 210,000 three weeks ago and President Donald Trump was trumpeting the labour market's health on Twitter.

Report

Mr Trump, who has made the strength of the economy his political calling card, recently said he wants to loosen restrictions on activity as early as next month.

However, state and local officials worried about the rise in cases may decide not to follow the federal government as the number of cases continues to rise. The US had more than 69,000 cases as of Thursday.

In a television interview on Thursday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said "the first order of business will be to get the spread of the virus under control and then resume economic activity".

"The sooner we get through this period and get the virus under control, the sooner the recovery can come...We know that economic activity will decline probably substantially in the second quarter but I think many expect and I would expect economic activity to resume and move back up in the second half of the year," he said.

Analysis by Samira Hussain, New York business reporter

More than 3 million Americans lost their jobs in a week - a single week - and it is possible this number is underestimating the actual figure.

To think just a few weeks ago, the monthly jobless rate was at a 50-year low and we were talking about the continuing strength of the US labour market. Now some experts are expecting to see the unemployment rate hit 13% or more.

It is incredible just how quickly the American economy has cratered. So it comes as no surprise that President Trump wants to reopen the country for business fast.

This is a president that staked his reputation partly on the strength of the US economy, often highlighting low unemployment and a record breaking stock market.

Now, in an election year, he can point to neither.--BBC

Why orange juice prices are soaring on global markets

The future price of orange juice has spiked by more than 20% this month as consumers look for healthy products during the coronavirus pandemic.

While demand has risen, supply has been hit as producers struggle to export goods due to transport restrictions.

This has caused a rise in the so-called "futures" price of orange juice, which indicate its cost for delivery in the coming months.

Orange juice futures are the best performing asset so far this year.

"The Covid 19 outbreaks are hitting both the supply and demand for orange juice. The immune-boosting properties are the demand side attraction while there are simply not enough tanker spaces with airlines not flying to bring the product to markets," said Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at broker AxiCorp.

On the supply side, there are also issues with not having enough workers as plantations introduce restrictions such as social distancing. "Traders are wondering if workers are around to man the plants here in Florida and in Brazil," said Jack Scoville at trading firm Price Futures Group in the US.

Orange juice futures have seen their biggest monthly gain since October 2015, at a time when global stock markets are being battered. In London, the FTSE 100 index is down more than 13% in the last month, while on Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen more than 16%.

Talking about whether the spike in orange juice futures prices will mean higher prices for orange juice in stores, Mr Innes added: "The pass-on effect will be quick as orange juice producers pass the price rises onto to supermarkets and other buyers".

Most commodities have a "future" price, which can be traded on an exchange, such as the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Futures contracts help companies lock into a fixed price in the future to protect them from potential spikes in prices.

Futures contracts are common for soft commodities like oranges and wheat which are vulnerable to sudden price rises due to bad harvests and natural disasters.--BBC

INVESTORS DIARY 2020

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Companies under Cautionary

Bindura Nickel Corporation

Padenga Holdings

Delta Corporation

Meikles Limited

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